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Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

WolfBear

Well-known member


Antonov back in Russian Hands



Bucha heating back up.



Putin never planned on Ukraine folding fast. What he needed to prevent was Zelensky mobilizing the reserves till it was too late.

This is born out by the actual conduct of this war with Ukraine frittering away its forces in local counter-attacks that are tactically successful, but operationally futile.

On the grander operational scale, the Ukrainian Army is being pocketed in Cauldrons and destroyed in detail as it can't mass a Corps Level counter-attack on any of these fronts that stands a chance of ejecting the Russians.


Can Ukraine try doing a levee en masse similar to what France did in 1870-1871?


And of course rely on its own equivalent of the francs-tireurs?


Anyone trying to kill Putin would just poison all the food at that meal. It would kill everyone at the table as collateral damage but it would also get Putin. I am not advocating for assassinations by the way.

Reminds me of the American Dad! episode where in order to make Barry dull again, Steve put dulling medicines in both glasses of water so that regardless of which glass Barry chose, he would stop being an evil genius and instead become a dullard again! :D

Putin would most likely kill the assassin himself.

I don't believe that he doesn't go around these days with a concealed pistol on himself.

not to mention a bulletproof underlayer in his suits.

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putin-meme.jpg
 

Emperor Tippy

Merchant of Death
Super Moderator
Staff Member
Founder
Chechnya was also pacified, largely, by Russia bribing one of the more powerful warlords to keep it pacified. Essentially, the Russian federal government makes cash payments on a regular basis to Chechnya to keep the population calm. That isn't possible at the scale of Ukraine.

On the other hand, Ukraine doesn't have the religious or ethnic issues that Chechnya does and the land in question is largely better than what can be found in most of Russia.

So Russia is able to do the expedient thing and kill off the local men, give the land to its soldiers, and "encourage" the Ukrainian women to become (essentially) war brides.
 

King Arts

Well-known member
I wonder how secure Sweden would be outside of NATO if Russia hypothetically did have a boner in wanting to conquer it but Finland was in NATO. There'd be no direct land access which could make things tricky

Having a "neutral" country like Sweden can have benefits in the world order.
Fuck Sweden. Listen guys Russia is being a bag of dicks but we shouldn’t be helping the center of wokeism. If we need a neutral arbiter with the Russians the Swiss are the traditional option.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
I think someone posted a video that apparently the initial invasions plans were captured, and the Russian plan was apparently a 15 day invasion. If that was their timeline, the invasion would supposed to be "complete" by March 11. Or maybe it was to take Mariupol? So, if their plan was Mariupol in 15 days, they seem more or less on time schedule with their original plans.

Regular reminder that in the second Iraq invasion Kuwait to taking Bagdad took March 20th to April 9th, about 20 calendar days. Kuwait to Bagdad was about 500 km, about 25 km per day average.

So, getting from the border to Kiev would take about a week, which it did, where its slowed. The advance in the south from Crimea to Mariupol is about 300 km, so the same rate of advance to take that city would be about 12 days, so from invasion start day of Feb 24 would be them taking it on March 8th, which they might do.

So, if the US rate of advance in the 2003 invasion of Iraq is considered fairly quick, the Russians are keeping that rate of advance more or less. And I don't think anyone really praised the hard will and determination of Sadams forces.

If there's going to be some march on Lviv necessary to bring this to a close, from a Crimea staging area is a 1,000 km march, so at 25 km/day that march would take about 40 days. Over that long of a campaign, maintaining a 25 km/day rate of advance is very difficult, and you normally do that in 100 km bursts every week or so. So it would be more like a 100 day campaign.

This being 1-2 years long and going well for Russia while lasting that long, are not mutually exclusive. The Russian may expect a war that long.

After all, the combat phase of the second Chechen War lasted 9 months according to wiki. And that was over a 150 km wide area. And Russia was willing to overall absorb about 7,000 forces deaths for that little area.

Keep in mind the Russians (well, Russian cause) per wiki, has already suffered 6,000 casualties for this cause, before this recent invasion. If the Russians take the Ukrainian issue as seriously as they claim, they may be willing to endure 10,000s of casualties for this.

I guess were going to see if this war resolves things, or it petters out at some point but without peace, so you settle into 6 months of phony war as forces get re-built up and the next round of conscripts. Which of course is how you get modern very long wars, like the Iran-Iraq war which dragged on for 8 years.
One has to remeber how many casualties the US and the coalition forces took during the same time frame Russia is taking here.
And how methodological the coalition was. As in, we didn't do such horrible things that get our supplies cut or anything.
We moved in and made sure we had supply lines and fuel
 

Chiron

Well-known member
As soon as Putin pulls a million or two of extra troops out of his ass.
I'll explain to it to you on the level of a primary school math problem.
If Russia needed to use 70-80k troops to suppress Chechnya each time, with its population of 1.1-1.2m at the time, how many troops will Russia need to suppress roughly 40m Ukraine?
How many additional troops does Putin need to arrange to reach similar proportion of occupier to citizen to Chechnya?

The hard core trouble makers go into camps Comrade and there they will be put to productive use chopping wood.

Collaborators are found and they become the new security services.

The rest go about their lives and don't make trouble.

Also helps that extended families from the Soviet Era exist and that will be the basis of reunifying Ukraine as an autonomous republic of Russia. Russian Soldiers who have family members in Ukraine will be stationed close to their Ukrainian Family members and if unmarried, told to marry a Ukrainian Cousin of theirs.

Family ties Comrade, that will end rebellions pretty quick.

One has to remeber how many casualties the US and the coalition forces took during the same time frame Russia is taking here.
And how methodological the coalition was. As in, we didn't do such horrible things that get our supplies cut or anything.
We moved in and made sure we had supply lines and fuel

UkA isn't a 3rd world militia. US trying their playbook against UkA would have gotten torn up as unlike Saddam, UkA would have seen the all too clear build up and mobilized its reserves, dispersed its aircraft to auxiliary fields, and hit back with Corps and Army level counter-attacks that would have ejected the US from their territory.

Its why Russia purposely gave its Eastern Units unencrypted radios and let them keep their cellphones and access to Twitter unlike in all other exercises.

Zelensky had to think this really was an exercise so he did not mobilize reserves with which to form Corps and Army level formations. Putin wants a relatively fast war with relatively few causalities. Doing a too obvious buildup would have had Zelensky calling up reserves in response and require in turn an even more massive build up that would in turn result in more people dying in the long run.

Kindly stop drinking your own Kool-Aide, that is how you lost to the Taliban. Recognize the real difference in fighting a Colonial War against a 3rd world militia and fighting a Mass Maneuver War against an Industrial State.

If you can't do that, then you are a failure at your job and a danger to kept in it as you lack the knowledge to properly analyze a situation, thus resulting in consistently bad advice that will kill people.
 

FriedCFour

PunishedCFour
Founder

Whitestrake Pelinal

Like a dream without a dreamer
Chechnya was also pacified, largely, by Russia bribing one of the more powerful warlords to keep it pacified. Essentially, the Russian federal government makes cash payments on a regular basis to Chechnya to keep the population calm. That isn't possible at the scale of Ukraine.
On the contrary, Russia can pay off the common man quite easily by providing oil and natural gas at below market rates. They did this before the western 'elite' incited a coup. Under the Zelensky regime, energy costs are a ruinous expense for the average Ukrainian, and Russia can fix that with minimal effort. The western buyers throwing tantrums over the end of the NWO are bypassed as well, two birds with one stone.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
The hard core trouble makers go into camps Comrade and there they will be put to productive use chopping wood.

Collaborators are found and they become the new security services.

The rest go about their lives and don't make trouble.

Also helps that extended families from the Soviet Era exist and that will be the basis of reunifying Ukraine as an autonomous republic of Russia. Russian Soldiers who have family members in Ukraine will be stationed close to their Ukrainian Family members and if unmarried, told to marry a Ukrainian Cousin of theirs.

Family ties Comrade, that will end rebellions pretty quick.



UkA isn't a 3rd world militia. US trying their playbook against UkA would have gotten torn up as unlike Saddam, UkA would have seen the all too clear build up and mobilized its reserves, dispersed its aircraft to auxiliary fields, and hit back with Corps and Army level counter-attacks that would have ejected the US from their territory.

Its why Russia purposely gave its Eastern Units unencrypted radios and let them keep their cellphones and access to Twitter unlike in all other exercises.

Zelensky had to think this really was an exercise so he did not mobilize reserves with which to form Corps and Army level formations. Putin wants a relatively fast war with relatively few causalities. Doing a too obvious buildup would have had Zelensky calling up reserves in response and require in turn an even more massive build up that would in turn result in more people dying in the long run.

Kindly stop drinking your own Kool-Aide, that is how you lost to the Taliban. Recognize the real difference in fighting a Colonial War against a 3rd world militia and fighting a Mass Maneuver War against an Industrial State.

If you can't do that, then you are a failure at your job and a danger to kept in it as you lack the knowledge to properly analyze a situation, thus resulting in consistently bad advice that will kill people.
Iraq also was not a third world military. They were a poorly maintained and trained 2nd world group.

Also no, you have no idea at how why the Russians are having difficulties and why zelensky didn't mobilize earlier.

He didn't mobilize earlier because Russia would be able to have a somewhat justifiable to the supporters of Putin, and show they were going to invade.
Plus it would have actually been slightly worse as now they can have more ways to hurt the Long fight and deep fight instead of the close one. Of course you don't understand these terms.

The US would have basically done a desert storm or a Iraq invasion. It is all about planning, keeping them guessing, even when obvious.

You also deploy the largest air campaign in modern history against them and claim the skies for weeks way before ground forces ever go in.

Basically, look at Desert storm and the invasion of Iraq on how a country should properly invade another
Russia is a failure militarily, and has proven to the west we have nothing to truly fear, so might as well not need America to help as we could defend on our own.

Again, make a comeback when you actually k on how Large scale Combat Operations work, and why dropping VDV so far away from support is a horrible idea the 82nd thought it was stupid
 

Chiron

Well-known member
Iraq also was not a third world military. They were a poorly maintained and trained 2nd world group.

Mexico is a 2nd World Group along with Brazil, Vietnam, North Korea, and till relatively recently Turkey and China. And of these Vietnam and China beat the US on the field of battle and forced it to the table.

Iraq's Army was nowhere near these nations in capability. It was effectively a 3rd world militia in effectiveness.

Also no, you have no idea at how why the Russians are having difficulties and why zelensky didn't mobilize earlier.

We know full well why. All prior drills the Russians confiscated cellphones, used encrypted comms and had full logistical support and Ukraine called up reserves.

This last drill before Russia invaded, the Eastern Divisions were brought up, they were given unencrypted radios, weak logistical support, allowed to keep their cell phones and were posting on social media.

Zelensky who had had seen numerous Russian Drill by now and the UkA High Command as well, took a look at the sloppy drill of the Eastern Divisions and their complete unprofessional postings on Social Media and concluded Putin was sabre rattling.

What Western Intelligence thought is irrelevant, the Russians only had to fool one person: Zelensky who alone had the authority to call up the reserves. They succeeded and gained complete operational surprise.

Plus it would have actually been slightly worse as now they can have more ways to hurt the Long fight and deep fight instead of the close one. Of course you don't understand these terms.

Russians don't fight that way and its irrelevant at the operational level they work at. So what if Ukraine has successful local counter-attacks against the Eastern Divisions? They got pocketed and unable to actually stop the operational encirclement of Chernikiv and soon Kyiv. By committing them to battle as they did, Kyiv sacrificed its best troops with which to form the core of a Corps level counter-attack that could have actually knocked the Russians back and enabled them the ability to extract their best troops from Donbas and get them behind the Dnieper where they could form the Core of an Army level counter attack to retake the East.

Now that window is gone and they do not have the time to do more than keep an escape route open from their capital with whatever scratch forces they can get together from the reserves. And that is just frittering them away piecemeal.

That you don't understand this shows what an incompetent analyst you are and that you drank your own Kool-Aide.

The US would have basically done a desert storm or a Iraq invasion. It is all about planning, keeping them guessing, even when obvious.

You also deploy the largest air campaign in modern history against them and claim the skies for weeks way before ground forces ever go in.

Yeah and if Putin had done that, the Ukrainians would have mobilized all it reserves, made the cities fortresses, and the fighting would have bogged down into a series of sieges that would have sent deaths on both sides soaring.

Sorry but Putin is not playing that game, he is going for a relatively quick campaign of operational encirclements that pocket the bulk of UkA Forces from their supplies and forces their operational surrenders.

That way fewer people die and there is less he has to rebuild later plus less of a core to form guerrilla movements from as he can screen out the hardcores and ship them to Siberia.

Basically, look at Desert storm and the invasion of Iraq on how a country should properly invade another
Russia is a failure militarily, and has proven to the west we have nothing to truly fear, so might as well not need America to help as we could defend on our own.

The US lost the Iraq War, Iran took over the nation under your nose, got you to pay for it, and openly looted your military aide and shipped it to Syria to use against the Rebels.

And the US lost Afghanistan on top of that.

Again, make a comeback when you actually k on how Large scale Combat Operations work, and why dropping VDV so far away from support is a horrible idea the 82nd thought it was stupid

The VDV mission was a success, they held till relieved and forced Kyiv to fritter away an entire SOF company to no purpose and prevented Kyiv from sending units to bust escape corridors open to the pocketed troops in the North East of the Country.

Kyiv is dancing to Putin's tune, not their own.

Do everyone a favor and stop drinking your Kool-Aide. The US military is incapable of winning wars and is incapable of fighting mass maneuver warfare with a peer competitor.
 

bintananth

behind a desk

As for the last part of the image ...

One of my sisters knows a guy who has a 3" Ordinance Rifle.

I do not want to know where that bit of crew-served artillery came from but do know that it's been fired indoors at least once.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker

Well they certainly don't want to be sanctioned for what their government is doing, while said government basically gets a slap on the wrist. As for their opinion on the invasion of Ukraine, more of them seem to support it than most Americans and Europeans choose to believe. Certainly more than enough to ensure that Putin doesn't have to worry about a populist uprising against him.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Well they certainly don't want to be sanctioned for what their government is doing, while said government basically gets a slap on the wrist. As for their opinion on the invasion of Ukraine, more of them seem to support it than most Americans and Europeans choose to believe. Certainly more than enough to ensure that Putin doesn't have to worry about a populist uprising against him.
Chinese banks don't like it, and they are not doing all of what Beijing wants to support Russia, because they don't want to be cut out of SWIFT, they want to co-op SWIFT for themselves.

Also, even India and Brazil have said they are going to remain neutral in this, so they are not going to bail Russia out or risk their economies to help Russia.

Now Putin has called for an 'Antifacist Alliance Summit' in a few month with a bunch of post-Soviet states, plus the BRICKS, and a few iffy 'allies' of our like Saudi Arabia. So they are trying to see if they can play a 'the west are the real facists' card to the world.

However, for now, even many inside Russia are saying this is going too far, and that this is Putin's war, not theirs.

The whole situation is a fucking mess, has been for near on a decade now, and there is no 'good' side, just different people who want to use Ukraine and it's people as pawns for different agendas and outcomes. Ukraine was craphole after the end of the Cold War, partly thanks to the idiots in charge of Chernobyl and how it was treated by Russia after the USSR dissolved.

All we can do is pray that the world, the Ukrainian fighters, and Russian people can put enough pressure on Putin force him to deescalate and withdraw.

Edit: @Terthna you need to see this; even the FSB has parts that are not ok with this war and are not without power. Even Moscow is not united behind this war.

 
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Terthna

Professional Lurker
Chinese banks don't like it, and they are not doing all of what Beijing wants to support Russia, because they don't want to be cut out of SWIFT, they want to co-op SWIFT for themselves.

Also, even India and Brazil have said they are going to remain neutral in this, so they are not going to bail Russia out or risk their economies to help Russia.

Now Putin has called for an 'Antifacist Alliance Summit' in a few month with a bunch of post-Soviet states, plus the BRICKS, and a few iffy 'allies' of our like Saudi Arabia. So they are trying to see if they can play a 'the west are the real facists' card to the world.

However, for now, even many inside Russia are saying this is going too far, and that this is Putin's war, not theirs.

The whole situation is a fucking mess, has been for near on a decade now, and there is no 'good' side, just different people who want to use Ukraine and it's people as pawns for different agendas and outcomes. Ukraine was craphole after the end of the Cold War, partly thanks to the idiots in charge of Chernobyl and how it was treated by Russia after the USSR dissolved.

All we can do is pray that the world, the Ukrainian fighters, and Russian people can put enough pressure on Putin force him to deescalate and withdraw.

Edit: @Terthna you need to see this; even the FSB has parts that are not ok with this war and are not without power. Even Moscow is not united behind this war.


I don't see that happening. The world doesn't want him to stop, they want him to keep going; indefinitely, if possible, so that they can use the conflict to distract their citizenry from problems at home, and silence dissent. The Ukrainian fighters, meanwhile, don't have a chance in hell of accomplishing anything beyond forcing Putin to get more aggressive, and kill more Ukrainians. As for the Russian people; maybe I'm just not seeing the same things you are, but I don't think they're going to do anything about it either.

Also, after all the outright lies that has come out of this conflict (do I need to find that picture of proud Ukrainians wielding cardboard cut into the shape of guns?) I'm not sure I trust that bit about the assassination attempts. After all, Putin needs him alive to sign off on Ukraine's surrender.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
I don't see that happening. The world doesn't want him to stop, they want him to keep going; indefinitely, if possible, so that they can use the conflict to distract their citizenry from problems at home, and silence dissent. The Ukrainian fighters, meanwhile, don't have a chance in hell of accomplishing anything beyond forcing Putin to get more aggressive, and kill more Ukrainians. As for the Russian people; maybe I'm just not seeing the same things you are, but I don't think they're going to do anything about it either.

Also, after all the outright lies that has come out of this conflict (do I need to find that picture of proud Ukrainians wielding cardboard cut into the shape of guns?) I'm not sure I trust that bit about the assassination attempts. After all, Putin needs him alive to sign off on Ukraine's surrender.
I don't think Putin want's Zelenski alive.

Killing him and most of the current gov, then installing/buying their own puppet to replace him in a new Moscow friendly gov, works in Moscow's long term favor. The longer Zelenski is alive and active, the more resistance Russia will face pacifing the nation and in controlling the international situation. If Zelenski is dead and most of his gov are dead, the easier time a puppet gov has of establishing it's own legitimacy.

What the West did to Ukraine via formenting Maidan and chasing out a pro-Russia President is going to likely be repaid with old school decapitation and replacement tactics in how Putin seeks to handle Zelenski.

Now maybe that is wrong, those articles are BS, and Putin isn't trying to kill Zelenski and most of the Ukrainian gov.

However, the idea fits old school ideas of warfare and recapture of 'rogue provinces' which seems to be how Putin views Ukraine, particularly with the oil deposits in Ukraine now in the open.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
I don't think Putin want's Zelenski alive.

Killing him and most of the current gov, then installing/buying their own puppet to replace him in a new Moscow friendly gov, works in Moscow's long term favor. The longer Zelenski is alive and active, the more resistance Russia will face pacifing the nation and in controlling the international situation. If Zelenski is dead and most of his gov are dead, the easier time a puppet gov has of establishing it's own legitimacy.

What the West did to Ukraine via formenting Maidan and chasing out a pro-Russia President is going to likely be repaid with old school decapitation and replacement tactics in how Putin seeks to handle Zelenski.

Now maybe that is wrong, those articles are BS, and Putin isn't trying to kill Zelenski and most of the Ukrainian gov.

However, the idea fits old school ideas of warfare and recapture of 'rogue provinces' which seems to be how Putin views Ukraine, particularly with the oil deposits in Ukraine now in the open.
That does make sense; I suppose it's just a question of what Putin intends to accomplish with all this.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
They would also retaliate against our "leadership" whether that is an upside or a downside i leave to you.
If Putin goes we probably see someone more hardcore take his place, and the whole Russian deep state and Russian populace becoming more anti-western and antagonistic.
Sergei Shoigu is his most likely successor, but that can change in favor of somebody a lot nastier.

And if the largely ethnically Russian population in the east turns against them and starts aiding the Russians - then what?

IMO this will turn into more of a Bay of Pigs/North Vietnam vs. South Vietnam type of situation than anything else.

At most 30% of the entire Ukrainian population were willing to take up active resistance and espcially younger people wanting nothing to do with the war, and the majority of those that do wish to fight IMO were concentrated in the West, and that is according to Ukraine's own polls, which I take with a mine of salt.

Rump Ukrainian state in the west, pro-Russian republics in the east, highly fortified border on the Dnieper river, with Russia possibly taking the south-western coast and linking up with Transnistria, with a possuble Odessa republic forming there.

EDIT:
Friendly reminder


Frankly, support in the west for this will die down pretty fast, stagflation will probably hit 1970s levels, and a lot of establishment RHINOS will be shot if the Trump republicans focus on domestic issues, like the economy, the border and CRT, as well as creeping domestic fascism.
 
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Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
The claim that the FSB is tipping off Ukraine about assassination attempts against Zelensky is highly dubious.

Ukraine loses nothing by spouting it, and it's impossible to credibly prove/disprove.
The FSB is the frigging internal security service of Russia, the SVR or the GRU would be the agencies that might be tasked with taking on Zelenski.

Also, the Russians can pretty easily demolish all fighting spirit in the occupied areas by playing the stupidest bits of impossible Ukrainian war propaganda back at them, as well as this:


(Yeah, that is Zelenski, in the middle)
The guy is IMHO becoming more and more unhinged, and at some point he will snap totally.
EDIT: also apparently playing hava nagila with his dick:
WATCH: Before he was President, Ukraine's Jewish Zelensky Used to Play Israeli Folk Tunes with His Penis


Here is more John J. Mearsheimer for you all:
 
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