I'm not sure of that, given how much bullshit propaganda Zelenski and Kiev have been caught putting out.Have you missed the last 2 weeks of news?
Russia is a old tiger with stiff joints and big teeth that look very dangerous but are rotten inside. It might get a heart attack if it moves too violently.
Russia may not have the strength of the old USSR, but the are not as weak as you seem to wish to think they are.
That is absolutely a possibility, I agree, given the prevailing winds in the area, as we saw with Chernobyl.While a nuclear attack on Ukraine may not trigger a nuclear response from NATO, it may trigger a military response, especially if the wind blows the wrong way, and definitely will provoke a unprecedented political response, and rightfully so.
Fallout hitting a NATO member would be a massive clusterfuck, which is why I expect we'd see Russia use low yeild airbursts that cause minimal fallout but can still flatten military formations or wreck a good portion of Kiev.
Russia has learned to handle sanctions, but there is a reason we have not sanctioned the oil or gas exports, and not just to keep Europe from freezing or keep gas prices from getting worse.And yet again we are lucky you are not a western politician. Perish the very thought of backing off on sanctions if Russia uses nukes in Ukraine. Russia needs to be sure that using nukes in Ukraine will make current sanctions look measured, reasonable, and not all that bad. Nevermind all nuclear testing bans will go to hell, and on top of that NATO will except all its members from nuclear non-proliferation treaty regarding creating own nuclear deterrents, will NATO covering them in the transition phase.
The nork example exactly why you are wrong. It was already done to them since decades, and its definitely hurting them more than anyone else.
We sanction the oil and gas, and Moscow has little reason not to break out the nukes to make a point.
Also, unless China comes out against such a strike, Russia can still use thier alternative to SWIFT.
And I do not have a problem with other NATO nations pursuing ng thier own nuclear programs or weapons; I've even said I think a nuclear Poland would be a good regional counter to Russia. Nuclear non-proliferarion is effectively a dead letter, particularly after Obama's stupid deal with Iran.
It doesn't matter if you or I think it was just a rumor; Russia believed it was an agreement made in good faith, even if it was just verbal, feels it was lied to, and no amount of trying to say 'the agreement didn't happen' is going to change that.This is a highly repeated rumor that exists and is highly repeated purely and specifically for the benefit of Russia. Its a r umor, which is why despite being such a far reaching and indefinite promise, there is no signed document for it. Please stop.
Ukraine: the history behind Russia’s claim that Nato promised not to expand to the east
Russia insists that there was an agreement not to expand Nato eastwards after the end of the USSR. History begs to differ.theconversation.com
Just like no amount of knowing the 2020 election was stolen is going to get Biden's 'win' reversed at this point. Deal with the world as it is, not as you wish it to be.
Except anyone who can read a topo map and has any military history knowledge knows it's not all bunk.We all know Russian leadership is perfectly capable of making up reasons for more and more landgrabs until they defend themselves into the shape of an empire. But any country whose leaders have some cheeky imagination can do that. There is no reason why Russia's attempts at that should be taken at face value.
Both Napoleon and Hitler used the same invasion corridor, and Russia has not forgotten that, and will not leave themselves open to anything like that again, if it is in thier power to prevent.
You don't have to like it, but it's not illogical.
A Belarus type neutrality might be the least worst option, unfortunately, unless Zelenski can strike a bargain with Russia on his own that is different.Of course we should not ignore it. But not ignoring something someone says is very different from accepting that said someone should be given what they demand.
Sometimes the appropriate response is "don't even fucking think about it", which is different from ignoring it too.
Also, as far as real world vision of what happens when Russia is given a relatively free hand in defining the neutrality of a supposed buffer state, you can check out the state of Belarus.
Long story short, its no neutrality at all.
I know a lot of this is unpleasant to have to contemplete, but we need to face the reality we have, not the reality we wish we had.