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Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Skallagrim

Well-known member
It's a statistical artifact of "developing countries" seeming like they are going to equal, or even overcome the first world countries within a short amount of time, due to assumed extrapolation of momentary high rate of growth. I remember such predictions being applied to China, India and Brazil and i'm not even that old.
It even got its own meme
You are applying observations about specific late-20th and early 21st century trends to an early 20th century context, particularly one in which the disparity regarding demographic conditions, degree of education, and overall technological capacity between the relevant nations had not yet diverged nearly as widely.

In other words: apples and oranges.


Meanwhile Russia has only managed to abolish serfdom around late XIX century.
And the USA had only managed to abolish slavery a few decades before that, hence my statements about Russia being a few decades behind the USA at the outset. You are confiming my statements; I approve!


Soviets were obsessed with industrialization beyond what the Tzar would try, causing some of their reputation to arise in the process, and in the end even then it turned out that while they can have a lot of industry, they aren't keeping up in technology level, nevermind commercialization of it - not that civilian economy and prosperity were ever a big thing for Russia before communism.
Exactly. Soviet industrialisation was utter shit, and the myth of Stalin in that regard is precisely that: a myth.

Hence my statement that Russia suffered by having communism inflicted upon it. (Although there is, of course, far more -- and more damning -- evidence of that.) Note that the pre-war trends of industrialisation were far more sustainable, being practically identical to what had already been done in the USA, but with a delay, as I already mentioned. But also proceeding slightly faster, due to the factors that I also mentioned.

It would seem that we are in agreement.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
You are applying observations about specific late-20th and early 21st century trends to an early 20th century context, particularly one in which the disparity regarding demographic conditions, degree of education, and overall technological capacity between the relevant nations had not yet diverged nearly as widely.

In other words: apples and oranges.
And that does jack shit about the underlying conditions that have made them to diverge.
Just that they weren't obviously manifested doesn't mean they didn't exist yet.
And the USA had only managed to abolish slavery a few decades before that, hence my statements about Russia being a few decades behind the USA at the outset. You are confiming my statements; I approve!
Slavery was a much less socially and economically significant phenomenon for USA than serfdom was for Russia. In case of USA it was 18% at its height, less than that at abolishment.
Meanwhile in Russia, at the time of formal abolishment, serfs were the majority of the population.
Apples and oranges...
Exactly. Soviet industrialisation was utter shit, and the myth of Stalin in that regard is precisely that: a myth.

Hence my statement that Russia suffered by having communism inflicted upon it. (Although there is, of course, far more -- and more damning -- evidence of that.) Note that the pre-war trends of industrialisation were far more sustainable, being practically identical to what had already been done in the USA, but with a delay, as I already mentioned. But also proceeding slightly faster, due to the factors that I also mentioned.

It would seem that we are in agreement.
Russia had communism inflicted on it because it was vulnerable to it due to how backwards it was.
One thing to note is that countries with a highly developed trade and craft based economy, like Germany, UK, USA, took really well to industrialisation. Russia was on the other end of the spectrum...
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
If they go full Mao on nuclear weapon policy...
Chinese forces in that area would not be an easy target for tac nukes. It's a large area with low population and force numbers, so dispersion would be naturally high.
That goes double for a future where Chinese try to copy western anti-missile defense tech, which they will definitely try.

Russia could try nuking Chinese cities, no?
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
Russia could try nuking Chinese cities, no?
In which case China will retaliate likewise. Depending on how much Chinese missile defenses improve and Russian nuclear force readiness decays until that moment, China may or may not survive it, even if injured badly.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
And that does jack shit about the underlying conditions that have made them to diverge.
Just that they weren't obviously manifested doesn't mean they didn't exist yet.
I've just outlined that the "underlying conditions" were in fact much less diverged at the time. Your argument is now one that relies on the assumption of predestination. It can't rely on existing trends at the time, since those don't support your thesis.


Slavery was a much less socially and economically significant phenomenon for USA than serfdom was for Russia. In case of USA it was 18% at its height, less than that at abolishment.
Meanwhile in Russia, at the time of formal abolishment, serfs were the majority of the population.
The USA had to fight a bloody civil war of the matter, and Russia did not. This is telling, and pokes a rather massive hole in your interpretation of events.


Apples and oranges...
They are, indeed. It is demonstrated again.


Russia had communism inflicted on it because it was vulnerable to it due to how backwards it was.
One thing to note is that countries with a highly developed trade and craft based economy, like Germany, UK, USA, took really well to industrialisation. Russia was on the other end of the spectrum...
You're literally relying on characteristically Marxist analysis now. I refuse to be led down that almost certainly deliberate side-trail.



...in summation, you're once again falling into the pattern where you refuse to concede any point, even when your own statements actively prove my point. We've been down this road before, and once you get in this mood, I know you become impervious to arguments and evidence. As such: believe as you want.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
I've just outlined that the "underlying conditions" were in fact much less diverged at the time. Your argument is now one that relies on the assumption of predestination. It can't rely on existing trends at the time, since those don't support your thesis.
The sociocultural status of Russia was already quite diverged.

The USA had to fight a bloody civil war of the matter, and Russia did not. This is telling, and pokes a rather massive hole in your interpretation of events.
Russia had a far worse civil war slightly later, and with a far worse result. That patches up the hole quite nicely.

You're literally relying on characteristically Marxist analysis now. I refuse to be led down that almost certainly deliberate side-trail.



...in summation, you're once again falling into the pattern where you refuse to concede any point, even when your own statements actively prove my point. We've been down this road before, and once you get in this mood, I know you become impervious to arguments and evidence. As such: believe as you want.
I'm not "impervious to arguments", i just refuse to approve your "Russia superpower by 2020 1920 if no communism" alt history theory.
 

Carrot of Truth

O'doyle rules!
In which case China will retaliate likewise. Depending on how much Chinese missile defenses improve and Russian nuclear force readiness decays until that moment, China may or may not survive it, even if injured badly.

Russia has a far larger nuclear arsenal than China. Unsure of how badly the world would be fucked up but that would definitely ensure US dominance for a few more centuries.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
The sociocultural status of Russia was already quite diverged.
This isn't even a statement; it has no meaning. You're just blathering now.


Russia had a far worse civil war slightly later, and with a far worse result. That patches up the hole quite nicely.
Precipitated by an ongoing world war. Rather a different circumstance. Your intellectual dishonesty knows no bounds, it seems.


your "Russia superpower by 2020 1920 if no communism" alt history theory.
That's not what I claimed, you're deliberately misrepresenting my statement. I argued that Russia would catch up to the USA by 1940 or so (meaning you shaved off two full decades to deliberately misrepresent my point). This would also be in a situation where there are no World Wars, which would avert the OTL boost that the USA saw at the expense of imploding Europe.

In short, you're arguing against a shoddily manufactured parody of what I said. That's crappy behaviour, even from you (and as we see above, your standards when it comes to debating are pretty damn low).

I re-iterate that you can believe what you want, but I must insist that you stop being this dishonest about it. Since fair discussion is evidently impossible when dealing with you, I'm going to do something else now.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
This isn't even a statement; it has no meaning. You're just blathering now.



Precipitated by an ongoing world war. Rather a different circumstance. Your intellectual dishonesty knows no bounds, it seems.



That's not what I claimed, you're deliberately misrepresenting my statement. I argued that Russia would catch up to the USA by 1940 or so (meaning you shaved off two full decades to deliberately misrepresent my point). This would also be in a situation where there are no World Wars, which would avert the OTL boost that the USA saw at the expense of imploding Europe.

In short, you're arguing against a shoddily manufactured parody of what I said. That's crappy behaviour, even from you (and as we see above, your standards when it comes to debating are pretty damn low).

I re-iterate that you can believe what you want, but I must insist that you stop being this dishonest about it. Since fair discussion is evidently impossible when dealing with you, I'm going to do something else now.
Fair enough. In that case i'm still refusing to take your "Russia superpower by 1940 if no communism" alt history theory seriously, frankly it may be the most ridiculous theory i've read today.
Even without the "boost" (or more of military redirection of economy) for USA and a lot of optimism for Russia's absolute rulers, i can't take it seriously.
Sorry that i can't see your alt history theory as anything but parody, but that theory just makes it very hard to see it as anything else, as it requires one to believe that by the time of communist revolution Russian Empire was standing on the precipice of a socioeconomic miracle of a rarely seen scale, comparable only with some Asian Tigers exiting communism perhaps. Even in 1900 USA had twice the GDP of Russian Empire at 2\3 the population.
 
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WolfBear

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One could say the same thing about the futility of having Russia conquer Ukraine. Ukraine could have 25 million after the end of the current war, maybe 20 million by the time of the next war if there will actually be a next war, and maybe 10 million if Russia will ever conquer Ukraine due to mass Ukrainian emigration to the West in such a scenario. This will make any boost to Russia's population from incorporating Ukraine rather small.


By that logic, Ashkenazi Jews should strongly prefer Muslims over Westerners because Westerners, especially Germans, have killed many more Jews over the past century than Muslims did, right?
 

Marduk

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Moderator
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One could say the same thing about the futility of having Russia conquer Ukraine. Ukraine could have 25 million after the end of the current war, maybe 20 million by the time of the next war if there will actually be a next war, and maybe 10 million if Russia will ever conquer Ukraine due to mass Ukrainian emigration to the West in such a scenario. This will make any boost to Russia's population from incorporating Ukraine rather small.
Bold of him to assume that it is a boost. The current situation is unstable, war end + 5 years or so will be the time when long term demographic effects can be discussed. The thing that will be curious is the filtering effect in population distributions.
For one Russia would get a disproportionate segment of nostalgic for USSR local retirees and near retirees. Also local underclass and others who don't give a damn about who rules over them. Meanwhile Ukraine and West would get a disproportionate amount of middle class professionals and young people who want western freedoms or consider themselves patriots.

By that logic, Ashkenazi Jews should strongly prefer Muslims over Westerners because Westerners, especially Germans, have killed many more Jews over the past century than Muslims did, right?
By that logic Russia should fear Mongolia, Germany and Russia (when it comes to killing Russians, few can compare) itself over USA.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Bold of him to assume that it is a boost. The current situation is unstable, war end + 5 years or so will be the time when long term demographic effects can be discussed. The thing that will be curious is the filtering effect in population distributions.
For one Russia would get a disproportionate segment of nostalgic for USSR local retirees and near retirees. Also local underclass and others who don't give a damn about who rules over them. Meanwhile Ukraine and West would get a disproportionate amount of middle class professionals and young people who want western freedoms or consider themselves patriots.

Agreed.

By that logic Russia should fear Mongolia, Germany and Russia (when it comes to killing Russians, few can compare) itself over USA.

A lot of people should fear Mongolia by that logic! :D

It's quite interesting that I had a Jewish great-uncle and aunt who were Holocaust survivors (they were successfully evacuated from Odessa to the Soviet interior in late 1941 before Odessa fell) and yet they moved to Hannover, Germany rather than to Israel in the 1990s after the Soviet collapse. By Anatoly Karlin's logic, this would make no sense, yet it makes perfect sense since Germany is wealthier than Israel, treats Holocaust survivors better (especially financially), and has fully come to terms with and made amends for its Nazi past by that point in time.

It would also be illogical by Anatoly Karlin's logic for a majority of the world's Ashkenazi Jews to live in the West (and for many of the ones who don't to have nevertheless preferred to move to the West over Israel had they actually had this choice back when they were moving) since Westerners were the ones who were primarily responsible for the mass murder of Ashkenazi Jews over the last 100 years, yet this fact makes perfect sense considering that the West is not a monolithic bloc across time and space and that nowadays most Westerners condemn the Nazis and what they did and thus make it tolerable and indeed even acceptable for Jews to live in their countries, at least when their countries don't have significant numbers of anti-Semitic Muslims.
 

strunkenwhite

Well-known member
A lot of people should fear Mongolia by that logic!
Well, if you start with the assumption that everyone in history is out to get you, it makes more sense to use kill count as a proxy for how good they are at it. Thus, China and the west are both Russia's enemy, but China is the less successful one and thus makes a better partner.
 

ATP

Well-known member
I hear you-- but it's still sad. Before the events of the last century or so, Russia's economic and demographic development trends had it as perhaps the most serious contender next to the USA for eventual world hegemony. Communism and the world wars have hollowed it out entirely, and what is left is a pathetic and rapidly crumbling shell with a dwindled population (many of the still-vital element currently being thrown into the meat grinder!), an economy that's out-performed by Italy, and a military that is mostly a rust-heap glued together by the slime of corruption.

It's funny because it's happening to them, but it's a pure tragedy because it starkly illustrates how quickly and how very deeply the mighty can and do fall. A mere century from 'actual contender to become the world's foremost superpower', to...

...this.

Mandaleyew in 1906 belived,then in 2000 Russian Empire would have 580 million of people.Others do not belived so,but - we would never knew.
Stołypin reforms helped a lot,and Russia COULD become economical superpower - if tsars do not fucked it.Which they could do - remember,one of them once saved prussia during 7th year war.

Germans belived,that if they do not start war till 1916,Russia could not be defeated - but,they could be wrong.

All in all, they had potential to become world superpower - but,their rulers could destroy that chance,and even if not,country was patchwork of modern nations,medieval people,tribes and even hunter-gatherers - so,turning that into superpower would be not easy thing to do.

Which now do not matter,becouse current parody of Russia have no chance at all.



And people still say it wasn't real socialism....
Well,considering that soviets there genocided only 10-30% of population,could be true.After all,if they kill 99,9% ,then rest would live in worker paradise,RIGHT COMRADE ? ;)


Fair enough. In that case i'm still refusing to take your "Russia superpower by 1940 if no communism" alt history theory seriously, frankly it may be the most ridiculous theory i've read today.
Even without the "boost" (or more of military redirection of economy) for USA and a lot of optimism for Russia's absolute rulers, i can't take it seriously.
Sorry that i can't see your alt history theory as anything but parody, but that theory just makes it very hard to see it as anything else, as it requires one to believe that by the time of communist revolution Russian Empire was standing on the precipice of a socioeconomic miracle of a rarely seen scale, comparable only with some Asian Tigers exiting communism perhaps. Even in 1900 USA had twice the GDP of Russian Empire at 2\3 the population.

Well,if we have smart tsars ,genius premiers,and they would always toss 6,then it would happen.They have real chance to become world superpower,althought in my opinion not big one.
 

ATP

Well-known member
Well, if you start with the assumption that everyone in history is out to get you, it makes more sense to use kill count as a proxy for how good they are at it. Thus, China and the west are both Russia's enemy, but China is the less successful one and thus makes a better partner.
That was Moscov doctrine - they belived then West could destroy them,and China could not.But,according to their doctrine,they should never start open war on Ukraine,too.

Another topic - german media in Poland/onet/ claimed,that USA are allied with China now.
 

ATP

Well-known member
When the Muslim Brotherhood took over in Egypt, it looked like that, too. Comparisons with BLM loot mobs in the USA are obvious as well.

It's the universal sign of the barbarian.


Do not offend barbarians by comparising them to soviet army or BLM.
Polish patriot,Gan ganowicz who run from Poland to fight commies in Congo,compared soviet soldiers in Poland to africans -
africans loot and could made fire in your room,like soviets,but they at least do not shit there.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
It's like 1991 all over again.
Well, I guess that's one way to look at it; it's more Kherson has very limited civie facilities left intact to the degree this market is, so the owners are letting people use the power stations/plugs, because they have some of the only functional ones in the city.
 

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