Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Carrot of Truth]

If they use tactical nukes,then yes,it mean a lot.i t

Here's the thing though if Russia just used tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine no one can be certain that it wouldn't escalate into a full blown nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. If saner heads prevailed it would be avoided but that's a crisis on a level that has never occurred so who can really say what would happen.

 

[WolfBear]

Here's the thing though if Russia just used tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine no one can be certain that it wouldn't escalate into a full blown nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. If saner heads prevailed it would be avoided but that's a crisis on a level that has never occurred so who can really say what would happen.

I doubt that the West would respond in a nuclear manner but they might respond in a conventional manner in such a scenario, in which case Russia would have the choice of either losing a conventional war against the West or going nuclear (in which case the West will respond in a nuclear manner).

 

[Marduk]

Anatoly Karlin 🧬⏩ (@powerfultakes)

Well sure, if a hypothetical post-Putin Russia ruled by neocon useful idiots hosts US airbases and makes chimp noises at China about Uyghurs or whatever, and is schooled on its insolence by losing Primorye, I don't think they'd use nuclear weapons over that.

nitter.1d4.us

Any post-Putin Russian government that loses a part of internationally recognized Russian territory, especially one with millions of Russians/Slavs on it, and lets China get away with this conquest (as opposed to responding to this Chinese conquest by nuking China) is likely to see its popularity drop among Russians to near-zero levels. This in itself will very likely compel any post-Putin Russian government to issue a nuclear response in response to any such aggressive Chinese move.

And as someone responded to Anatoly Karlin, even with a pro-Western Russia, China very likely won't want to take the risk of getting nuked in order to acquire some permafrost territory:

Táltos (@Taltos_sort_of)

Do the same type of assessment for China's decision to invade Primorye, as you have done for the hypothetical post-Putin Russian government.China won't even supply Russia with weapons. You think it will risk getting nuked for Primorye?

nitter.1d4.us

Ironically, if Russia was to successfully join the western alliance network, that is a risk in invading it, because that implies western support against China, just like many SEA and Asian countries count on. Also less economic reliance on China.
The best opportunity for Chinese revanchism against Russia would be of course a Russia that is defeated, bankrupt, and desperate, looking for a lifeline at any cost. Hence no aid for Russia now, the longer Russia keeps bashing its head into Ukraine and its western alliances the more desparate it will be to buy some painkillers the next day.
Then China can offer it a deal with a dragon... Want economic aid? We can do that... But we won't give it for free, because we aren't cucked westerners.

Alternatively they steal the Donbass handbook and use it against a barely functioning Russia which has to keep what remains of its military guarding some sort of DMZ with Ukraine, and floating up security in Caucasus and Belarus. Good luck moving much troops to the Far East before Chinese recognize the local "people's republics" declared by local Chinese minorities and move in a bunch of units equipped with the best Chinese defense industry had to offer.

Russians themselves will also care less about territorial concessions after they get tired enough with complaining about not having jobs and stores being half empty.
The nuclear response threat also works both way. Will Muscovites risk getting nuked over some permafrost far away that's already half colonized by the Chinese and from which they can't even sell resources anymore because the West won't sell them advanced mining tech due to sanctions and Chinese would rather mine it themselves?

 

[lloyd007]

Russians themselves will also care less about territorial concessions after they get tired enough with complaining about not having jobs and stores being half empty.
The nuclear response threat also works both way. Will Muscovites risk getting nuked over some permafrost far away that's already half colonized by the Chinese and from which they can't even sell resources anymore because the West won't sell them advanced mining tech due to sanctions and Chinese would rather mine it themselves?

China's kinda in a bind that way though since most all of Russia's 'protect with nukes... we actually really fkn mean it unlike our 8 years at most 'annexed' territory' is right there along that border and there's no way to replace the Trans Siberian Railway.

It might not even be the Kremlin that would give the order either since any threat to the TSR means the 8 million+ Russians in the Far East are just dead / gulag'ed / expelled... and they have substantial military commands in that area.

 

[Megadeath]

MTG, Matt Gaetz and Thomas Massie attempting to cut off aid to Ukraine.

November 17, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

NATO, Polish and US officials have said that the deadly missile blast in Poland on Tuesday was likely launched by Ukrainian air defenses, but that Russia bore ultimate responsibility. Follow for live news updates.

edition.cnn.com

 

[WolfBear]

Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2)

Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov claims that Poland started World War II due to its "arrogance and self-confidence" and warns that Poland could now start World War III for the same reasons

nitter.1d4.us

 

[WolfBear]

Ironically, if Russia was to successfully join the western alliance network, that is a risk in invading it, because that implies western support against China, just like many SEA and Asian countries count on. Also less economic reliance on China.
The best opportunity for Chinese revanchism against Russia would be of course a Russia that is defeated, bankrupt, and desperate, looking for a lifeline at any cost. Hence no aid for Russia now, the longer Russia keeps bashing its head into Ukraine and its western alliances the more desparate it will be to buy some painkillers the next day.
Then China can offer it a deal with a dragon... Want economic aid? We can do that... But we won't give it for free, because we aren't cucked westerners.

Alternatively they steal the Donbass handbook and use it against a barely functioning Russia which has to keep what remains of its military guarding some sort of DMZ with Ukraine, and floating up security in Caucasus and Belarus. Good luck moving much troops to the Far East before Chinese recognize the local "people's republics" declared by local Chinese minorities and move in a bunch of units equipped with the best Chinese defense industry had to offer.

Russians themselves will also care less about territorial concessions after they get tired enough with complaining about not having jobs and stores being half empty.
The nuclear response threat also works both way. Will Muscovites risk getting nuked over some permafrost far away that's already half colonized by the Chinese and from which they can't even sell resources anymore because the West won't sell them advanced mining tech due to sanctions and Chinese would rather mine it themselves?

I don't think that there is actually a large Chinese community in the Russian Far East--is there? Even Chinese are fleeing Inner Manchuria in large numbers, IIRC. And not breeding there very much even relative to the rest of China.

 

[Marduk]

Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2)

Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov claims that Poland started World War II due to its "arrogance and self-confidence" and warns that Poland could now start World War III for the same reasons

nitter.1d4.us

Classic Russia bullshit around WW2. Poland got invaded by Nazis because it didn't invite fucking Soviets to invade first.

I don't think that there is actually a large Chinese community in the Russian Far East--is there? Even Chinese are fleeing Inner Manchuria in large numbers, IIRC. And not breeding there very much even relative to the rest of China.

Not large by absolute numbers. But with how sparse population numbers are in that region...

 

[lloyd007]

Not large by absolute numbers. But with how sparse population numbers are in that region...

Ehhh... according to wikipedia (2010 census), ethnic Chinese make up .2% of Primorsky Krai (Vladivostok) and aren't even listed in any of the other Far East regions bordering China / Mongolia.

So unless something shifted dramatically either officially in Russia importing ethnic Chinese or some unofficial hidden invasion / border crisis... seriously unlikely considering any north / south infrastructure would run into the TSR REALLY quickly and there's jack and spit for arable land in Siberia so any hidden populations would need everything imported from China... well... any invasion by China would, again run into the fundamental issue of putting the entire Russian Far East under attack and begging for a nuclear response to 'disappear' all those invading columns Russia absolutely wouldn't be able to fend off conventionally... or just disappearing Xinnie the Pooh in Beijing... along with most all of the rest of Beijing... and then it becomes That Scene From Wargames.

 

[Marduk]

Ehhh... according to wikipedia (2010 census), ethnic Chinese make up .2% of Primorsky Krai (Vladivostok) and aren't even listed in any of the other Far East regions bordering China / Mongolia.

Not sure how much can Russian official data be trusted in that regard.

So unless something shifted dramatically either officially in Russia importing ethnic Chinese or some unofficial hidden invasion / border crisis... seriously unlikely considering any north / south infrastructure would run into the TSR REALLY quickly and there's jack and spit for arable land in Siberia so any hidden populations would need everything imported from China...

China has supposedly decent infrastructure in their border regions, as it supports a 2 digit million population, vastly more than the whole Russian Far East. For one they wouldn't need to ferry food across Siberia to get it there.
Of course China can also play the historical grievances card as to why there aren't enough Chinese in the region.

Blagoveshchensk - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

well... any invasion by China would, again run into the fundamental issue of putting the entire Russian Far East under attack and begging for a nuclear response to 'disappear' all those invading columns Russia absolutely wouldn't be able to fend off conventionally... or just disappearing Xinnie the Pooh in Beijing... along with most all of the rest of Beijing... and then it becomes That Scene From Wargames.

If they go full Mao on nuclear weapon policy...
Chinese forces in that area would not be an easy target for tac nukes. It's a large area with low population and force numbers, so dispersion would be naturally high.
That goes double for a future where Chinese try to copy western anti-missile defense tech, which they will definitely try.

 

[Megadeath]

-Snip-
If they go full Mao on nuclear weapon policy...
Chinese forces in that area would not be an easy target for tac nukes. It's a large area with low population and force numbers, so dispersion would be naturally high.
That goes double for a future where Chinese try to copy western anti-missile defense tech, which they will definitely try.

That ignores that there are few potential targets, with even fewer potential logistics avenues. Your analysis makes sense only if we imagine China advancing as a literal wave from their borders. Even if they wanted to do that they couldn't. Assuming an invasion of Russian land from China, you would inevitably have high force concentration in a few geographical areas. Technically speaking, nuclear weapons would be incredibly practical.

 

[Marduk]

That ignores that there are few potential targets, with even fewer potential logistics avenues. Your analysis makes sense only if we imagine China advancing as a literal wave from their borders. Even if they wanted to do that they couldn't. Assuming an invasion of Russian land from China, you would inevitably have high force concentration in a few geographical areas. Technically speaking, nuclear weapons would be incredibly practical.

That assumes Russians would deploy matching force concentrations, which with their logistics, especially at an opportune moment for attack would be particularly shitty, would just not happen, not anytime soon. They would have no reason to create nice groupings for nuclear strikes other than out of sheer stupidity. I'd think low numbers, high mobility, trying to grab areas without a large logistical footprint before Russia gets its slow logistics and command structures moving.

 

[Megadeath]

That assumes Russians would deploy matching force concentrations, which with their logistics, especially at an opportune moment for attack would be particularly shitty, would just not happen, not anytime soon. They would have no reason to create nice groupings for nuclear strikes other than out of sheer stupidity. I'd think low numbers, high mobility, trying to grab areas without a large logistical footprint before Russia gets its slow logistics and command structures moving.

In this hypothetical they're part of NATO, right? Surely then they'd have a significantly larger bulk of their forces stationed in that direction rather than threatening Finland.

 

[Atarlost]

In this hypothetical they're part of NATO, right? Surely then they'd have a significantly larger bulk of their forces stationed in that direction rather than threatening Finland.

If Russia gets into NATO after this it's going to be because they've been demilitarized by treaty and NATO membership is the concession to their security concerns against their Chinese and Iranian former allies. Yeah, the bulk of their forces would be stationed in the East, but there wouldn't be much bulk.

 

[Skallagrim]

Nah, I'm completely OK with Russia expending their store of Nuke-capable missiles in this fashion.

I hear you-- but it's still sad. Before the events of the last century or so, Russia's economic and demographic development trends had it as perhaps the most serious contender next to the USA for eventual world hegemony. Communism and the world wars have hollowed it out entirely, and what is left is a pathetic and rapidly crumbling shell with a dwindled population (many of the still-vital element currently being thrown into the meat grinder!), an economy that's out-performed by Italy, and a military that is mostly a rust-heap glued together by the slime of corruption.

It's funny because it's happening to them, but it's a pure tragedy because it starkly illustrates how quickly and how very deeply the mighty can and do fall. A mere century from 'actual contender to become the world's foremost superpower', to...

...this.

 

[Cherico]

I hear you-- but it's still sad. Before the events of the last century or so, Russia's economic and demographic development trends had it as perhaps the most serious contender next to the USA for eventual world hegemony. Communism and the world wars have hollowed it out entirely, and what is left is a pathetic and rapidly crumbling shell with a dwindled population (many of the still-vital element currently being thrown into the meat grinder!), an economy that's out-performed by Italy, and a military that is mostly a rust-heap glued together by the slime of corruption.

It's funny because it's happening to them, but it's a pure tragedy because it starkly illustrates how quickly and how very deeply the mighty can and do fall. A mere century from 'actual contender to become the world's foremost superpower', to...

...this.

And people still say it wasn't real socialism....

 

[Marduk]

In this hypothetical they're part of NATO, right? Surely then they'd have a significantly larger bulk of their forces stationed in that direction rather than threatening Finland.

No, Russia has a DMZ with Ukraine tying down troops in that scenario. If Russia is a part of NATO then there is no way this happens, and there are chances US troops are on Russian-Chinese border.

 

[Marduk]

I hear you-- but it's still sad. Before the events of the last century or so, Russia's economic and demographic development trends had it as perhaps the most serious contender next to the USA for eventual world hegemony. Communism and the world wars have hollowed it out entirely, and what is left is a pathetic and rapidly crumbling shell with a dwindled population (many of the still-vital element currently being thrown into the meat grinder!), an economy that's out-performed by Italy, and a military that is mostly a rust-heap glued together by the slime of corruption.

It's funny because it's happening to them, but it's a pure tragedy because it starkly illustrates how quickly and how very deeply the mighty can and do fall. A mere century from 'actual contender to become the world's foremost superpower', to...

...this.

Not really? Russia was already considered backwards and struggling to catch up to the first rate power at that time. Note how before communism Russia got its ass kicked by the Japanese in a land war. The socioeconomic dimension of that backwardness is also what made the whole communist revolution possible in the first place.

 

[Skallagrim]

Not really? Russia was already considered backwards and struggling to catch up to the first rate power at that time. Note how before communism Russia got its ass kicked by the Japanese in a land war. The socioeconomic dimension of that backwardness is also what made the whole communist revolution possible in the first place.

If you look at the demographic developments, the economic growth rate and the strides towards industrialisation, Russia was basically doing what the USA had already done, but with some delay, having started later. (Note that the pre-war US military was also a shoddy, under-funded mess that couldn't even quite adequately deal with Mexican banditry, and then note how rapidly that changed once a good reason presented itself.)

Russia also had the benefit of the copy-cat in this regard, i.e. it didn't have to invent the wheel, so its development was actually going faster because of that. If you extrapolate, the USA and Russia were going to be peers by 1940 or so, in a no-world-war-and-no-commies scenario. Meanwhile, the decline of the older great powers would be correspondingly more gradual, but still inexorable. Their day was dwindling towards sunset even before that fateful gunhot in Sarajevo.

There's a reason the Germans were so very eager to fight Russia in 1914. They knew that if the war was delayed by any truly substantial period, the evident development of Russia would render German victory in the contest practically impossible. (And then Hitler got a second shot at it, because Russia inflicted communism upon itself, and still managed to bungle it.)



P.S. --

Not really?

As a point of order, I must note that interrogative tone is for soy-sippers. Avoid it at all costs.

 

[Marduk]

If you look at the demographic developments, the economic growth rate and the strides towards industrialisation, Russia was basically doing what the USA had already done, but with some delay, having started later. (Note that the pre-war US military was also a shoddy, under-funded mess that couldn't even quite adequately deal with Mexican banditry, and then note how rapidly that changed once a good reason presented itself.)

Russia also had the benefit of the copy-cat in this regard, i.e. it didn't have to invent the wheel, so its development was actually going faster because of that. If you extrapolate, the USA and Russia were going to be peers by 1940 or so, in a no-world-war-and-no-commies scenario. Meanwhile, the decline of the older great powers would be correspondingly more gradual, but still inexorable. Their day was dwindling towards sunset even before that fateful gunhot in Sarajevo.

There's a reason the Germans were so very eager to fight Russia in 1914. They knew that if the war was delayed by any truly substantial period, the evident development of Russia would render German victory in the contest practically impossible. (And then Hitler got a second shot at it, because Russia inflicted communism upon itself, and still managed to bungle it.)



P.S. --


As a point of order, I must note that interrogative tone is for soy-sippers. Avoid it at all costs.

It's a statistical artifact of "developing countries" seeming like they are going to equal, or even overcome the first world countries within a short amount of time, due to assumed extrapolation of momentary high rate of growth. I remember such predictions being applied to China, India and Brazil and i'm not even that old.
It even got its own meme:

Superpower by 2020

Superpower by 2020 and Superpower by 2030 are catchphrases describing the vision of India as a developed country or a superpower by year 2020 or 2030. Online, the slogans, often paired with photographs of less-developed areas of India, have been used to mock Indian internet users, particularly...

knowyourmeme.com

Meanwhile Russia has only managed to abolish serfdom around late XIX century.
Soviets were obsessed with industrialization beyond what the Tzar would try, causing some of their reputation to arise in the process, and in the end even then it turned out that while they can have a lot of industry, they aren't keeping up in technology level, nevermind commercialization of it - not that civilian economy and prosperity were ever a big thing for Russia before communism.