Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

ATP

Well-known member
You seem to think that Russia is my enemy. I never considered them that and probably never will, unlike the States.
Two mistakes in one short sentence.
1.Russia was killed by soviets,you have kgbstan now.
2.USA made deal with them in 2021 giving them Europe for help against China.They break that deal.But - USA do not send weapons which let Ukraine win,becouse idiots do not want destroy Moscov,but made with them another deal.
Idiots never learn.

Funny thing, even if you don't consider them their enemy, they consider you their enemy.

And they will continue to do so, at a minimum until you're paying taxes to Moscow.

First - not russians,postsoviets
Second - They had that attitude inherited from tsar times - you could be either their slave,or enemy.Only possible ally is Germany.Now,also China.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
@Marduk Stupid Russians are already dreaming about fighting a next round of this war under a more competent regime if they will lose this round:


They keep failing to learn and to understand that conquering people against their will and without their consent is a bad idea.
 

Carrot of Truth

War is Peace
Oh for crying out loud learn from History. It is the mentality of people like you that allowed WW2 to happen in the first place. When your enemy is destroying itself. You don't allow them to get a reprieve. And Russia is systematically destroying it's conventional power by yeeting itself in Ukraine. A defeat of Russia in Ukraine means Russian land forces will no longer be able to threaten Europe as a whole. Russia will not be able to invade Europe for many many decades if ever. How is this so hard for you to grasp.


Even if Russia somehow won it wouldn't be able to go past Ukraine without starting WW3, Well I suppose they could go after Moldova but that's all they could realistically do in Europe. Anyways the likely outcome of a Russian defeat is that it becomes a Chinese satellite state, I'd argue that is a worse outcome for US interests in the long term.
 

ATP

Well-known member
@Marduk Stupid Russians are already dreaming about fighting a next round of this war under a more competent regime if they will lose this round:


They keep failing to learn and to understand that conquering people against their will and without their consent is a bad idea.

It is not stupidity.USA once gave them part of Europe,they wait for next time.Becouse war statred,when Putin do not agree to such deal.Another Putin would be smarter,and USA would gave Europe to him and Germany.
Good plan,should work.
 

Marduk

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Moderator
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Even if Russia somehow won it wouldn't be able to go past Ukraine without starting WW3, Well I suppose they could go after Moldova but that's all they could realistically do in Europe. Anyways the likely outcome of a Russian defeat is that it becomes a Chinese satellite state, I'd argue that is a worse outcome for US interests in the long term.
Don't forget about Georgia and Belarus. And possibility of internal shenanigans with Latvia's Russian minority.
@Marduk Stupid Russians are already dreaming about fighting a next round of this war under a more competent regime if they will lose this round:


They keep failing to learn and to understand that conquering people against their will and without their consent is a bad idea.
Yet again he falls of "pop number goes up" meme to a degree comparable with 4x players and western mass immigration enthusiasts. For one i wonder how many of the people Russia gained are 60+ year olds who either were too old to move or conviced to stay by USSR nostalgia and\or prospect of Russia's higher pensions. Ukrainians often call them "Soviet people", naturally they tend to be of an age at which they are interested in pensions more than anything else. Sure, they add to numbers, but in military and economic terms their value is negligible. They won't build businesses, they won't work tech jobs, and they won't be the recruit material to replace all the lost VDV either. Obviously they also don't care that Russia's non resource economy is in shambles, they are living off a pension and they can buy their potatoes and vodka for that. Meanwhile the military and economic value of the young and middle class men who have left Russia is disproportionally high, considering Russia's demographics especially.
So ironically, Ukraine may be left with a lower, but statistically younger and far more patriotic population than before (those having doubts moving either to Russia if they lean that way politically, or to the West if they just care about money). Guess who will remain...

Also bold of him to assume that Russia will get a more competent government after Putin, and then said more competent government will continue to sacrifice it all recommitting to Putin's biggest mistake.
 
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Marduk

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Moderator
Staff Member
Can Georgia be considered a part of Europe?
Culturally and politically it's close enough.
As for Belarus they are basically already a Russian vassal.
Yes, and that's the problem. Luka likes this arrangement, but Putin&co lean towards more than this. Guess they were thinking that time will solve this problem, but if they happen to end up in need of a quick victory, or the time does arrive and a succession crisis happens, creating an opportunity...
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Yes, and that's the problem. Luka likes this arrangement, but Putin&co lean towards more than this. Guess they were thinking that time will solve this problem, but if they happen to end up in need of a quick victory, or the time does arrive and a succession crisis happens, creating an opportunity...

Any chances that Ukraine could also fight Russia in Belarus?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Don't forget about Georgia and Belarus. And possibility of internal shenanigans with Latvia's Russian minority.

Yet again he falls of "pop number goes up" meme to a degree comparable with 4x players and western mass immigration enthusiasts. For one i wonder how many of the people Russia gained are 60+ year olds who either were too old to move or conviced to stay by USSR nostalgia and\or prospect of Russia's higher pensions. Ukrainians often call them "Soviet people", naturally they tend to be of an age at which they are interested in pensions more than anything else. Sure, they add to numbers, but in military and economic terms their value is negligible. They won't build businesses, they won't work tech jobs, and they won't be the recruit material to replace all the lost VDV either. Obviously they also don't care that Russia's non resource economy is in shambles, they are living off a pension and they can buy their potatoes and vodka for that. Meanwhile the military and economic value of the young and middle class men who have left Russia is disproportionally high, considering Russia's demographics especially.
So ironically, Ukraine may be left with a lower, but statistically younger and far more patriotic population than before (those having doubts moving either to Russia if they lean that way politically, or to the West if they just care about money). Guess who will remain...

Also bold of him to assume that Russia will get a more competent government after Putin, and then said more competent government will continue to sacrifice it all recommitting to Putin's biggest mistake.

Yeah, frankly, I just don't see the logic in Russia actually wanting a repeat of this if the current war will result in not only a Russian defeat, but also in the ethnic cleansing of the Crimea's and the Donbass's ethnic Russian populations. One could say that Russia went for a round 2 in Chechnya but it was a part of Russia's internationally recognized territory and a Wahhabist-run shithole along with it being an aggressor state by invading Dagestan, none of which actually applies to Ukraine. I also don't see the logic in having Russia continue this war since even if it wins, at the very best it can expect a Northern Ireland-style situation on steroids. The UK did stay in Northern Ireland, but only because the Protestants there (around half of the population) wanted the UK to do so. But there is virtually no constituency in Ukraine outside of Crimea and the Donbass that actually wants the Russians to stay.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
av5Y9
 

Marduk

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Moderator
Staff Member
Yeah, frankly, I just don't see the logic in Russia actually wanting a repeat of this if the current war will result in not only a Russian defeat, but also in the ethnic cleansing of the Crimea's and the Donbass's ethnic Russian populations. One could say that Russia went for a round 2 in Chechnya but it was a part of Russia's internationally recognized territory and a Wahhabist-run shithole along with it being an aggressor state by invading Dagestan, none of which actually applies to Ukraine.
Chechnya and Dagestan were third world level shitholes with single digit million population, no professional military and no meaningful allies. Of course there is no comparison to Ukraine.
I also don't see the logic in having Russia continue this war since even if it wins, at the very best it can expect a Northern Ireland-style situation on steroids. The UK did stay in Northern Ireland, but only because the Protestants there (around half of the population) wanted the UK to do so. But there is virtually no constituency in Ukraine outside of Crimea and the Donbass that actually wants the Russians to stay.
More like a 50's Korean DMZ situation.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Chechnya and Dagestan were third world level shitholes with single digit million population, no professional military and no meaningful allies. Of course there is no comparison to Ukraine.

More like a 50's Korean DMZ situation.

Yep.

I meant in the extraordinarily unlikely scenario that Russia would have completely won the war and actually conquered all of Ukraine.

But Yep, Russian nationalists are still holding onto their delusions:


Which further strengthens the need for Western security guarantees for Ukraine before Russia will ever decide to behave aggressively towards Ukraine again, if it will indeed lose this war.
 

Marduk

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Staff Member

Which further strengthens the need for Western security guarantees for Ukraine before Russia will ever decide to behave aggressively towards Ukraine again, if it will indeed lose this war.
The thing they miss here is that Azerbaijan didn't go take a break to figure out a bigger, meaner warlord, more eager to drive human wave attacks than the previous one.
They spent money on tech, setting up infrastructure and personnel to use it, and got some decent alliances to back them.
Guess Russia kinda tried the same, but it was a half assed efforts on all fronts that did however sponsor many yachts for many people.
The way things are going if Russia sticks to warlords, they won't even have much money to spend, regardless of how they want to divide it between yachts and military, not even saying anything about the economy and society.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
The thing they miss here is that Azerbaijan didn't go take a break to figure out a bigger, meaner warlord, more eager to drive human wave attacks than the previous one.
They spent money on tech, setting up infrastructure and personnel to use it, and got some decent alliances to back them.
Guess Russia kinda tried the same, but it was a half assed efforts on all fronts that did however sponsor many yachts for many people.
The way things are going if Russia sticks to warlords, they won't even have much money to spend, regardless of how they want to divide it between yachts and military, not even saying anything about the economy and society.

Marduk, I love your Polish wisdom! :) Excellent points here all-around!
 

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