Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

WolfBear

Well-known member
Remember when I said this on June 29th, and also did an estimate on Ukrainian losses based on their admitted casualty rates? Well, AFU documents have leaked that state their casualties are around 190,000 KIA and WIA, not including MIA/PoWs; matches perfectly with my estimates and also explains why the Defense Minister refused to elaborate on the break down of figures of that 100,000 number when CNN asked him in mid June.



Just how many military-age men does Ukraine have in total, though? Seven million? More than that? Because at current loss rates, they can keep the war going for more than ten years, apparently.
 

Vaermina

Well-known member
Just a tad over six weeks later, and time has once again vindicated everything I said: CIA director estimates 15,000 Russians killed in Ukraine war

ASPEN, Colorado, July 20 (Reuters) - The United States estimates that Russian casualties in Ukraine so far have reached around 15,000 killed and perhaps 45,000 wounded, CIA Director William Burns said on Wednesday, adding that Ukraine has also endured significant casualties.​
Nearly five months since President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Russia's neighbor, its forces are grinding through the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and occupy around a fifth of the country.​
"The latest estimates from the U.S. intelligence community would be something in the vicinity of 15,000 (Russian forces) killed and maybe three times that wounded. So a quite significant set of losses," Burns said.​
Only to be immediately contradicted by a non-estimate.

 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
Just how many military-age men does Ukraine have in total, though? Seven million? More than that? Because at current loss rates, they can keep the war going for more than ten years, apparently.
There is a slight difference between theoretical mobilizable population and actual mobilizable population. For starters since EU entry conditions were relaxed they lost somewhere between 2-5 million people to emigration, mostly in 20-30 years age bracket and few of the economic emigrants returned to fight. Secondly, many of the men of military-age are unfit for service (Ukraine being even shittier place than Russia does that to one's health). Thirdly many of the men in Ukraine are unwilling to get killed in this war, so Ukrainian mobilization at the start of war encompassed pretty much anyone they could get, short of cutting into workers in the most essential services. Sure, police and SBU are doing their best to hunt down conscription dodgers and drag them off to the front line, but you can't expect such men to do much good in fighting and will actually make unit cohesion much worse.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Good thing they launched the Special Military Operation. If the Germans waited any longer Poland was going to use its weapons from Britain and France to continue the genocide operations against the ethnic Germans in their territory (which actually historically isn't even Polish territory anyways).

And don't forget how big of a meanie Poland was in refusing to guarantee its neutrality! Germany has every right to be concerned about a Franco-Anglo-Polish encirclement of Germany, after all. If the US has the right to have the Monroe Doctrine, then Germany should have the right not to be encircled on both sides! Poland could have become a neutral state but chose not to and thus invited this round of German aggression. It could have also given Danzig veto power over its domestic and foreign policies, but rudely chose not to do this, thus spurring Danzig to end unification talks with Poland and to announce its unification to Germany instead.

Wise foreign policy thinkers have warned over the last 20 years that the Anglo-French encirclement of Germany with the help of their Eastern European vassal states such as Czechoslovakia and Poland was bound to eventually lead to disaster, and it in fact did lead to disaster!

As a side note, Romania is currently experiencing an extremely massive influx in its Polish and Jewish populations. The Poles are eagerly welcomed by the Romanians while the Jews are less so, only being reluctantly welcomed since they are Polish citizens like Poles themselves are.

Also, off-topic, but what do you think about this 2011 article?


bd130ea7b70425257877c03ed597f18cf0393ae1.png


By 2100, Russia and Canada become superpowers due to global warming screwing up the rest of the world.
 

ATP

Well-known member

Maybe the Allies should have negotiated with Hitler to bring an early end to WWII, eh? ;)

They tried that and failed,becouse he wanted almost entire Europe.Putin want only Ukraine,Poland and Baltic states.I could undarstandt people from Western Europe who want gave us to Moscov.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
They tried that and failed,becouse he wanted almost entire Europe.Putin want only Ukraine,Poland and Baltic states.I could undarstandt people from Western Europe who want gave us to Moscov.

To be fair, Poles are rather culturally compatible with Russians. Poles are more LGBTQ+ friendly, more pro-democracy and pro-rule of law, less corrupt, and more pro-Western, but otherwise, Poles are anti-Woke Slavic Christians just like Russians are.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
There is a slight difference between theoretical mobilizable population and actual mobilizable population. For starters since EU entry conditions were relaxed they lost somewhere between 2-5 million people to emigration, mostly in 20-30 years age bracket and few of the economic emigrants returned to fight. Secondly, many of the men of military-age are unfit for service (Ukraine being even shittier place than Russia does that to one's health). Thirdly many of the men in Ukraine are unwilling to get killed in this war, so Ukrainian mobilization at the start of war encompassed pretty much anyone they could get, short of cutting into workers in the most essential services. Sure, police and SBU are doing their best to hunt down conscription dodgers and drag them off to the front line, but you can't expect such men to do much good in fighting and will actually make unit cohesion much worse.

Just how many young Ukrainian men did the EU admit in its early weeks?

And honestly, if Russia doesn't give a shit about national self-determination, then maybe the West should adopt a more hardheaded approach in regards to this as well: Give Kosovo back to Serbia and give it Republika Srpska-level autonomy there in exchange for Ukraine getting back all of its lost territories. Would Russia actually be amenable to such a trade? Even with the lost territories returned to Ukraine, Ukrainians are so alienated from Russia right now that a Russian resurgence in Ukraine is impossible. But Crimeans and Donbassers will need to thoroughly have their minds cleansed of Russian propaganda. Could be good to make them autonomous units within Ukraine and allow them to keep most of their own tax revenues, similar to South Tyrol.

FWIW, I don't actually want the West to do this because national self-determination has been a core Western concept for over a century. Still, if China and Russia aren't actually going to give a damn about this (and to be fair, China's claim on Taiwan is stronger from an international law perspective than from a national self-determination perspective), then maybe the West shouldn't either. Past cases of national self-determination were good, but still, this principle is unfortunately not universally accepted. :(
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
Give Kosovo back to Serbia and give it Republika Srpska-level autonomy there in exchange for Ukraine getting back all of its lost territories.

State Department would never compromise on Kosovo.

Just how many young Ukrainian men did the EU admit in its early weeks?

The 2-5 million number is from before the war, numbers for after the invasion are even less tangible as men between 18-60 years of age are banned from leaving the country, so only those who can afford the bribes are leaving.

Would Russia actually be amenable to such a trade?

Russia supported the implementation of Minsk treaty, that would reintegrate Donbass into Ukraine and give it similar level of autonomy as Chechnya has in Russia. While Ukraine signed the treaty, it refused to implement it on SD guidance and right now Russian leadership is not exactly in a mood to do any compromises, especially not such idiotic compromises like Kosovo for Donbass&Crimea.

But Crimeans and Donbassers will need to thoroughly have their minds cleansed of Russian propaganda.

As they say it in Lvov when it comes to subhumans, suitcase-train station-Moscow. And for those that don't want to live there is always the knife and the bullet.
 

Aldarion

Neoreactionary Monarchist
To be fair, Poles are rather culturally compatible with Russians. Poles are more LGBTQ+ friendly, more pro-democracy and pro-rule of law, less corrupt, and more pro-Western, but otherwise, Poles are anti-Woke Slavic Christians just like Russians are.

Not anti-woke enough. And neither are Russians.
 

ATP

Well-known member
To be fair, Poles are rather culturally compatible with Russians. Poles are more LGBTQ+ friendly, more pro-democracy and pro-rule of law, less corrupt, and more pro-Western, but otherwise, Poles are anti-Woke Slavic Christians just like Russians are.

Nope.
We are free from medieval times,when moscovites were almost always slaves.That is difference - we are anti-lgbt becouse we choosed to be catholics on our free will.
postsoviets now do that becouse current fake tsar ordered so.If fake tsar was pro lgbt,they would support it.
 

Lord Sovereign

The resident Britbong
State Department would never compromise on Kosovo.

Not to mention that Kosovo probably doesn't want to be part of Serbia again. Yugoslavia is a bad memory for everyone in the Balkans, except for Serbia.

Not anti-woke enough. And neither are Russians.

No they are quite anti-woke enough. Alongside sampling the ravages of Communism and thus knowing what to look out for, Eastern Europeans are protected by their more devout line of Catholic or Orthodox faith. And being under the rule of multiple empires has made them fiercely defensive of their identities.

That and, well, having a front row seat to a run amok Enlightenment running the West into the ground must be quite educational.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Nope.
We are free from medieval times,when moscovites were almost always slaves.That is difference - we are anti-lgbt becouse we choosed to be catholics on our free will.
postsoviets now do that becouse current fake tsar ordered so.If fake tsar was pro lgbt,they would support it.

Your own people are still much more pro-same-sex marriage and/or pro-same-sex civil unions than Russians are:



Poland can fit into the Hajnal Line!

State Department would never compromise on Kosovo.

Not to mention that Kosovo probably doesn't want to be part of Serbia again. Yugoslavia is a bad memory for everyone in the Balkans, except for Serbia.

Well, Kosovo right now is going to be not universally recognized by the international community indefinitely. Of course, there is the option of joining another internationally recognized state--specifically Albania. But if Kosovars don't want that either, then they will continue to be stuck in legal limbo where the West and some other countries will recognize them but Russia, China, India, et cetera won't.

FWIW, personally, I'm quite content with the principle of national self-determination being applied to Kosovo, Crimea, Donbass, and the rest of Ukraine. I'm just very sad that Russia doesn't quite see it that way. Russia could have simply sent its own troops into the Donbass and perhaps outright annexed it without actually invading the rest of Ukraine, yet Russia unsurprisingly chose the bloodier option, in keeping with the tradition of its Mongol Golden Horde legacy.
 

Aldarion

Neoreactionary Monarchist
No they are quite anti-woke enough. Alongside sampling the ravages of Communism and thus knowing what to look out for, Eastern Europeans are protected by their more devout line of Catholic or Orthodox faith. And being under the rule of multiple empires has made them fiercely defensive of their identities.

That and, well, having a front row seat to a run amok Enlightenment running the West into the ground must be quite educational.

To an extent, maybe. But if you look at wokeness maps (1,2), situation generally gets worse the further West one goes, even within just the Eastern Europe. And countries of former Yugoslavia especially are waaay too woke, despite having been Communist (perhaps because Communism here wasn't as murderous as elsewhere? I do not know).
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
To an extent, maybe. But if you look at wokeness maps (1,2), situation generally gets worse the further West one goes, even within just the Eastern Europe. And countries of former Yugoslavia especially are waaay too woke, despite having been Communist (perhaps because Communism here wasn't as murderous as elsewhere? I do not know).

In regards to this question, wouldn't the best, nuanced answer be the same as for any other race: As in, it depends? Are they smart and talented? Or are they a ghetto thug?


I don't see the point in lumping in all black people in one box, and the same is also true for people of any other race. Similarly, one might be willing to marry an Indian genius but not an Indian who urinates in public, a practice that is apparently still widespread among the poor in India, unfortunately.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Here's additional reading on the Hajnal Line, FWIW:


The Medieval Catholic Church's stamping out of cousin marriage made Hajnal Europeans less inbred, less clannish, more universalistic, and possibly more inclined towards Wokeness as well.

 

Aldarion

Neoreactionary Monarchist
In regards to this question, wouldn't the best, nuanced answer be the same as for any other race: As in, it depends? Are they smart and talented? Or are they a ghetto thug?


I don't see the point in lumping in all black people in one box, and the same is also true for people of any other race. Similarly, one might be willing to marry an Indian genius but not an Indian who urinates in public, a practice that is apparently still widespread among the poor in India, unfortunately.

Because it is not just a question of the individual. Diversity always leads to trouble - such as violence and societal breakdown. And there are also psychological and biological issues in having children with people who are too genetically distant, almost as many as having children with people who are too genetically close (look at ligers for a non-human example).
 

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