If Ukraine can't turn it into a maneuver war and really seize the initiative (and keep it) then they will run into a Russian meat grinder that simply will not stop.
It won't stop until it will fall apart. The Wagner mess demonstrates how fragile their system is behind the facade of unrelenting fanaticism and unity. At any moment it may seem stable, and 3 days later we may discuss if Moscow will fall to another coup or not.
This isn't a war that Russia is fighting for anything that is in Ukraine. They are fighting it solely for gross geographic features with any other gains being incidental. And Russia is already suffering the economic and diplomatic damage from a major war, short of active NATO military opposition there really isn't much of anything that anyone can do to make things harder on Russia. Russia is already committing the war crimes, operating the killing fields, kidnapping the children, blowing up dams, using chemical weapons, and threatening nuclear reactors.
As we have discussed before, i think that's just theorizing of western analysts, they get paid for that.
From what pieces of info came out of Russia, it's an easy expansionist robbery gone wrong.
As we see, Russia is in no shape to go on grand, multi decade campaigns to secure geographic features,. That's more than a crime, it's a grand mistake considering that Russia started the war on own initiative, without questioning the theoretical wisdom of doing that in the first place by conflicting it with the reality that dramatically lack the kind of political and military moves in the West which would justify such desperate long shot counter-moves from Russia.
On the other hand, it makes more sense if the establishment just made a classic blunder, they had some domestic and elite malaise after the COVID economic fallout, and so the leadership got a classic good idea fairy shot into their heads - we know what will help with everything, a time honored classic, a short, victorious war! Spoils and history book entries to the elites, glory of the victory for the masses to forget for a moment that they are poor people in Russia, humiliation for the arrogant, preaching clowns in the West who won't do shit, hah, it's going to be over before they manage to decide to do shit even in the unlikely scenario it turns out these cowardly, weak fat cats have the guts for it.
And they had just the right opportunity prepared. But then things went wrong because Russian established thought it had far better cards than it did, while Ukraine had better cards than they thought it had.
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So the question becomes, will the "west" (US, UK, or France really) risk going nuclear over Ukraine. If the answer is no (and it very much is) then the war in Ukraine becomes a question of the Russian resource base against the military age fighting population of Ukraine.
If the rates go on and remain stable (very big assumption) for decade or three, it could be what settles the war. Both countries have military age male populations in millions, and losses in low to mid hundreds of thousands depending on side and who you ask after one and a half years of war, we can do the math.
But i'd be pretty sure other factors will decide the outcome before that happens.
There is no potential peace settlement or diplomatic resolution to this war. Replacing Putin wouldn't matter because the entire Russian establishment (including the opposition leader sitting in a Russian prison at the moment) thinks the war should be fought to victory basically regardless of the cost so a leadership replacement won't materially change things.
Well, that's definitely what people would call their "public opinion". I would not bet on that many of them having this as their "private opinion". Your belief in the ultrapatriotism of Russian elites is quite contrasting to the beliefs of Russia's far right regarding their elites and many other things we know about them.
Russia is, and will, resort to what are basically WW1/WW2 tactics and fight the war in that manner.
Indeed. Not by choice, but because those are the ways of fighting they are left with.