I concur with with Bill's analysis.
I concur with with Bill's analysis.
is cities surrendering with minimal urban fighting surprising? We remember Stalingrad and the battle of Berlin because they are the hellish exception rather than the rule.
FSB, the federal security bureau in english, the kgb was abolished with the Soviet Union although both them and the FSB are internal security controlling resistance movements would be more the realm of the Gru.Yep, this. I again, do not think that the majority of the Ukrainian people welcome this invasion by Russia, but that isn't enough for them to fight and die for their government--who are really the ones at risk here. It is worth noting that said city is closer to Russia and under greater Russian influence. I don't expect Kiev to fall so easily. Still, this is not a good sign for Kiev.
Well, yes and no. Remember that Zelensky has made an appeal to the Ukrainian populace to fight and resist the Russians. The fact that this city did not fight tooth and nail may be an indication that most or all of these cities will not follow their leader's command. What's more, the more cities that fall this quickly and easily, the more others will fall, following those examples. Especially if the Russians are civil. Or if they follow the expected plan of replacing Kiev's leadership with puppet leaders.
That doesn't mean that there isn't a resistance movement there or in any city that falls. There will be, but the indication here (although again, I stress it is too soon to tell) is that the civilians are going to fall in line. And if that's the case, then the resistance movements there are going to have to play hide and seek with the KGB. Not a game I'd want to play.
Don’t forget we also excluded energy, since $10 gas would bring the west to revolution, rather than their goal of destabilizing Russia.Not sure if this should go here or the derail thread but:
Defence With A 'C' (@defencewithac)
I legitimately would have a good 10 minute laugh. In respect to prices, wages are also a consideration. But like I said, I agree with you to a fair extent that the essentials will remain fine, but the middle classes might become a bit peeved.nitter.net
This thread on the sanction consequences for the Russian people seems quite prescient. Little to no day to day change, luxury cost increases. Little internal pressure for Russia to worry about.
Yep, the sanctions are mostly for show, because doing something serious would hurt the West more than Russia.Don’t forget we also excluded energy, since $10 gas would bring the west to revolution, rather than their goal of destabilizing Russia.
We killed kids in Iraq and A-stan, not to mention Vietnam and Korea.
We can condemn what Putin is doing, without pretending our own shit doesn't stink or that we so 'morally superior' the Russians.
We cannot let ourselves become ok with increasing censorship, decreasing freedom, and increasing authoritarianism, just because they are aiming a lot of their efforts at Putin/Russia, currently.
Because the drop happend at night. I have yet to see Russia deny these claims.
The US confirmed two full IL-76s destroyed in the air
Ok, I knew it was somewhere.
Also this.
Included for completeness, but these are old TO&Es and largely abandoned in the late 90s.
The first 2 will largely explain what we are actually seeing and how the Russians actually had this all under control from the beginning. Now there has been a lot of evolution in these doctrines since the 80s, but at their base, its still the same script just updated for new modern inventions such as social media and smart phones.
Sucks for the 1st echelon troops who got Zapp Branniganed in order to trick Zelensky into not mobilizing. But they did the job, and UkA frittered away its SOF in local counter-attacks that weren't strong enough to actually stop the invasion.
This enabled the 2nd echelon to go in and pocket up the SOF and mobile reserves and break open the door for the reserves in the 3rd echelon.
That is a galaxy brain strategy, Seems more like the Russians just fucked up and expected the Ukrainians to roll over and then they didn't so now they have to actually get serious.
1 - things have moved forward since 1945 a bit - nowadays there are quite a few asphalt roads in Ukraine ...Since we're approaching the Rasputitsa season, would the presence of muddy roads actually help Ukraine though? Moreover, the weather is fast approaching spring, so there wouldn't be a need for Russian gas for heating.