Trump Investigations Thread

[Poe]

Literally every major opinion poll on the 2024 elections has disagreed with that assessment for some time now. Trump currently has the lead in favourability, in all realistic scenarios.

That doesn't mean you're certainly wrong. Unlike you, I don't presume to be omniscient like that; but it does indicate that all available evidence runs counter to your claims.

To be fair this is 2024, in 2020 his favorability ratings were a lot worse.

 

[Skallagrim]

To be fair this is 2024, in 2020 his favorability ratings were a lot worse.

Certainly true! And let it never be said that the masses aren't fickle. I simply see no evidence that the majority of people dislike Donald Trump. For everyone who hates him, there's another that loves him. It's the guys in between who decide elections. And that doesn't necessarily mean so-called "moderates". It means regular guys who just want to make a decent living.

In 2016, after eight years of Obama and eight years of Bush before that -- and some fifteen years of foreign wars that everone had gotten sick of -- they elected mr. 'America First'. In 2020, in no small part because of the Wuhan virus (and Trump's decision to choose sympathy for lockdowns over sympathy for the little guy trying to run a small business, damn you), that margin turned against him.

But now they've had a few years of Biden, and looking back, Trump was actually good for them. Good for the economy! And I don't see any masks on the street anymore, do you? So now they're back where they began: in a dead-end economy under a Democrat who never listens to them. Back to the same grievances they felt in 2016. Back to the same answer to those grievances.

Back to Trump.

 

[Cherico]

Certainly true! And let it never be said that the masses aren't fickle. I simply see no evidence that the majority of people dislike Donald Trump. For everyone who hates him, there's another that loves him. It's the guys in between who decide elections. And that doesn't necessarily mean so-called "moderates". It means regular guys who just want to make a decent living.

In 2016, after eight years of Obama and eight years of Bush before that -- and some fifteen years of foreign wars that everone had gotten sick of -- they elected mr. 'America First'. In 2020, in no small part because of the Wuhan virus (and Trump's decision to choose sympathy for lockdowns over sympathy for the little guy trying to run a small business, damn you), that margin turned against him.

But now they've had a few years of Biden, and looking back, Trump was actually good for them. Good for the economy! And I don't see any masks on the street anymore, do you? So now they're back where they began: in a dead-end economy under a Democrat who never listens to them. Back to the same grievances they felt in 2016. Back to the same answer to those grievances.

Back to Trump.

 

[evilchumlee]

Literally every major opinion poll on the 2024 elections has disagreed with that assessment for some time now. Trump currently has the lead in favourability, in all realistic scenarios.

All of those polls are super reliable, like in 2016!

 

[Skallagrim]

All of those polls are super reliable, like in 2016!

You think Trump will do much better than the polls indicate, then?

You know...

like in 2016!

 

[evilchumlee]

You think Trump will do much better than the polls indicate, then?

You know...

Sure if that's what you want to go with.

Democrats have been absolutely shitting on the GOP in recent elections. Republicans love Trump. The rest? Not so much. Anecdotally, I know alot of the "in between" people who voted for Trump the first time who won't do it again. Trump's base is incredibly loud, but I don't think it's as big as some they think.

I actually think a good deal of my hate for Trump isn't even Trump, it's Trump people. I can probably deal with Trump. It's Cult 45 that just makes me not want to live on this planet anymore. I want Trump to go away because I want them to go away.

 

[Skallagrim]

Sure if that's what you want to go with.

No, no -- it's what you want to go with. I'm just re-stating the implications of your argument, and apparently, you didn't think about them.

The problem isn't "Trump people". The problem is people who are incapable of discussing honestly; who can only warp every argument to suit their desired conclusion. Some of those people are "Trump people", to be sure.

But another one of those people... is you.

 

[evilchumlee]

No, no -- it's what you want to go with. I'm just re-stating the implications of your argument, and apparently, you didn't think about them.

2016 polls showed that Hillary Clinton was easily favored to win. They were wrong.

2023 polls show Trump has a small lead over Biden.

I'm not sure how your logic adds up to "Trump wins even more". The argument is "polls are unreliable".

 

[Skallagrim]

2016 polls showed that Hillary Clinton was easily favored to win. They were wrong.

2023 polls show Trump has a small lead over Biden.

I'm not sure how your logic adds up to "Trump wins even more". The argument is "polls are unreliable".

The polls structurally under-estimated Trump, rather in line with the general media consensus. A consensus that continues to condemn and under-estimate Trump.

Conclusion: there is no evidence of any kind that the bias has flipped suddenly. Therefore, if the polls are wrong now, "like in 2016" (your words!), they may logically be expected to be wrong in the same way. That is: in that they under-estimate Trump's numbers.



I request that any response you care to post might please include arguments disproving my statements, backed up by evidence, rather than merely a re-hash of your biased opinions. Furthermore, red herrings and logical errors are strongly discouraged. (For instance, I remind you that this discussion is about Trump's chances in the general, not about other races featuring other Republicans, since those have thus far been a very poor indicator of Trump's success. Trump is not a typical Republican.)

 

[Poe]

Democrats have been absolutely shitting on the GOP in recent elections. Republicans love Trump. The rest? Not so much. Anecdotally, I know alot of the "in between" people who voted for Trump the first time who won't do it again. Trump's base is incredibly loud, but I don't think it's as big as some they think.

This is inaccurate. 2022 was considered a democratic win by dems because... Republicans won but not in a landslide. In the meantime for every election dems have won you can point to one Republicans have won as well. Don't think there's been any democratic victory as ridiculously big of a BTFO as DeSantis in 2022.

It's like how according to the ancient Egyptians they never lost a single war, they would just win battles closer and closer to home.

 

[strunkenwhite]

Don't think there's been any democratic victory as ridiculously big of a BTFO as DeSantis in 2022.

He improved his score by 10; I believe the best improvement by an incumbent Dem was 7 (CT). Gubernatorial newcomers in MA and MD had even larger majorities of the vote but the R incumbents were retiring or term-limited so it's not exactly apples-to-apples.

To address the larger point I think Dems can fairly claim to have flipped more state legislative houses in recent years and Republicans can claim to have turned more majorities into supermajorities. Usually the latter trick is only useful for overriding vetoes and I think the score is one each there (NC and VT). Dems parlayed very narrowly won legislatures in MI and MN into lots of legislation rammed through with a friendly governor. I imagine 2024 will be at least partly a referendum on the popularity of that legislation in those states.

 

[bintananth]

Your bias is showing again.

Have I ever denied the aforesaid bias? The answer to that would be a resounding "NO!"

I want impartial and can set aside my biases and preconcieved notions. Can you?

 

[Bacle]

Get out of your echo chamber for a minute. This isn't political warfare at all. Trump has been a corrupt piece of shit for DECADES, long before he was in any way relevant to politics. He's been in court consistently for about 40 years. The only difference now is that he has a political fandom who thinks he can do no wrong.

It's ironic though, how Trump and his fans go on about locking everyone up... it's totally NOT political lawfare when it's Hillary Clinton, or Joe Biden, or Hunter Biden. No way, right? They're obviously criminals and need to be locked up. But when it's Trump? HOW DARE THEY!

Hillary's email's weren't invented by Trump, and are Treasonous. The Biden's are pedo's, the diary of his daughter about Joe in the shower with her and the actions of his son have proven that. But that's the real dirty secret of DC; a lot of those in power are mutually blackmailing pedo's, and Epstein didn't kill himself.

Trump can be a dumbass sometimes, and a grifter sometimes (or at least those riding his coattails can be), and he's still the guy who tried to trademark the phrase 'You're Fired'. He however was one of the first people who was willing to help those who were after Epstein for sex trafficking shit.

I say this as someone who voted for Obama twice, Johnson in 2016, and Trump in 2020. I even donated to Bernie before Trump, because I could see Hillary was a PoS who suicided opponents.

And the Democrats unwillingness to accept audits of the 2020 vote, with the evidence that came out in Arizona showing the voting machines had internet access when they legally should not have been able to be online and the ballots with too perfect circles in a strict 7/1 ratio for Biden/Trump, make the election fraud claims legit, no matter how much the media and social media companies try to drown it out.

You want to talk about echochambers, the mainstream media is the biggest echochamber of them all.

 

[Bacle]

Certainly true! And let it never be said that the masses aren't fickle. I simply see no evidence that the majority of people dislike Donald Trump. For everyone who hates him, there's another that loves him. It's the guys in between who decide elections. And that doesn't necessarily mean so-called "moderates". It means regular guys who just want to make a decent living.

In 2016, after eight years of Obama and eight years of Bush before that -- and some fifteen years of foreign wars that everone had gotten sick of -- they elected mr. 'America First'. In 2020, in no small part because of the Wuhan virus (and Trump's decision to choose sympathy for lockdowns over sympathy for the little guy trying to run a small business, damn you), that margin turned against him.

But now they've had a few years of Biden, and looking back, Trump was actually good for them. Good for the economy! And I don't see any masks on the street anymore, do you? So now they're back where they began: in a dead-end economy under a Democrat who never listens to them. Back to the same grievances they felt in 2016. Back to the same answer to those grievances.

Back to Trump.

Eh, in some places people never stopped masking, at least for some.

I still see people with masks on on the sidewalks and in the stores when I go shopping, employees and customers alike. Even see it at sporting events.

They aren't a majority, but they are also not going away it seems.

 

[Skallagrim]

Eh, in some places people never stopped masking, at least for some.

I still see people with masks on on the sidewalks and in the stores when I go shopping, employees and customers alike. Even see it at sporting events.

They aren't a majority, but they are also not going away it seems.

That truly surprises me! In what I see from the USA, no masks are ever glimpsed. Perhaps it depends on where you are. But really, continued masking in America is very surprising to me-- here in the Netherlands (generally cursed with a far more docile populace), masks have become vanishingly rare. I've seen none in the warm months, and since the cold season began, I've seen all of two people wearing masks. Both at the train station.

Since Covid is now generally recognised as now being indistinguishable from a regular flu in its symptoms, we might expect masks to really disappear by next year, after there's no Great Big Covidpocalypse this year. Despite most people not wearing masks.

 

[Bacle]

That truly surprises me! In what I see from the USA, no masks are ever glimpsed. Perhaps it depends on where you are. But really, continued masking in America is very surprising to me-- here in the Netherlands (generally cursed with a far more docile populace), masks have become vanishingly rare. I've seen none in the warm months, and since the cold season began, I've seen all of two people wearing masks. Both at the train station.

Since Covid is now generally recognised as now being indistinguishable from a regular flu in its symptoms, we might expect masks to really disappear by next year, after there's no Great Big Covidpocalypse this year. Despite most people not wearing masks.

Eh, it doesn't show up in current media much, since even they think masking is a joke now and would much rather just push the clot-shot because pharma pays more to keep the Wu Flu fear alive than mask manufactures, who have other buyers in commercial groups who used masks before 2020.

It's also part virtue signalling, and in places were progressivism has overtaken liberalism as the norm, signalling compassion/care (even in ways that are pointless, or even harmful to themselves or others in the long run) is expected.

Some people also just really hate dealing with the normal flu at all, and now that masks don't mark one as a potential robber anymore, where them out in public just to avoid sick days, regardless of what it does to their immune system in the long run.

 

[Rocinante]

Eh, in some places people never stopped masking, at least for some.

I still see people with masks on on the sidewalks and in the stores when I go shopping, employees and customers alike. Even see it at sporting events.

They aren't a majority, but they are also not going away it seems.

I still see masks too. And what truly fucking baffles me is that those who still insist on wearing them, are almost all wearing them wrong!

Now, I didn't care if people wore them wrong during mandates. I just refused to wear them, outside of work in rhe hospital i was at, but sticking your nose out could be a form of malicious compliance and I was all for it. I did that often.

The ones wearing them now are wearing them because they're scared of getting sick, and they don't even fuckkng wear them right and stick their noses out. It's so fucking retarded. Though the fact that they're still wearing them at all is retarded too, so I shouldn't be surpised.

 

[Poe]

He however was one of the first people who was willing to help those who were after Epstein for sex trafficking shit.

What a fucking joke. He literally appointed Alex Acosta as Secretary of Labor. You know, the guy who gave Epstein a historic plea deal that allowed him to not out any of his co-conspirators. Only when the public was calling him out on this did Trump fire him.

 

[Vyor]

In news actually related to the court case:

One of the banks Trump has been accused of defrauding has had a representative on stand... for Trump. Saying they didn't feel defrauded. And that they made money on Trump, one hundred million dollars worth on a 500 million dollar loan.

So um... that makes the previous ruling in the case out to be actually just constitutionally and procedurally wrong since you can only make a summary judgement when facts are not in dispute. I think Trump and the banks going "There was no fraud" and the state saying "there was fraud" is, in actuality, a dispute over the facts.

 

[The Immortal Watch Dog]

I want impartial and can set aside my biases and preconcieved notions. Can you?

This is a laughable notion.