Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[WolfBear]

Has the Ukrainian military held on to Dnipro in this case as well?

It should, Yes. For now, at least.

BTW, pro-Russian analysts such as Anatoly Karlin and Richard Hanania appear to have missed a couple of major ideas:

1. Just because a population doesn't breed a lot doesn't mean that it can't have many brave people. (Brave = be willing to fight to protect their country, et cetera.)
2. Low fertility doesn't matter as much for an insurgency when a country's base population is large or at least relatively large. If a country of 150 million invades a country of 5 million, then all other things being equal, the 5 million-strong country's insurgency is likely to run out of steam much faster than a 35 million-strong country's insurgency against a 150 million-strong invading country. For instance, if Russia kills several hundred thousand Chechens, then Chechnya is essentially finished. Fatally weakened, certainly, since there are less than 1.5 million Chechens in total. But Ukraine could theoretically afford to take losses in the hundreds of thousands if the necessary will for this will actually be there. There will still be many millions of Ukrainians left over afterwards, after all.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Tulypan?

2S4 - 240 mm self-propelled mortar, I always had a soft spot for it.

But Ukraine could theoretically afford to take losses in the hundreds of thousands if the necessary will for this will actually be there.

The problem is that the insurgency would be predominantly men between 18-35 years of age, Ukraine lost much of this population to emigration in the last few years and vast majority are unlikely to return, so the loss of their best trained troops to the encirclements in Donbass region would be a devastating blow to the nascent insurgency, so it's more likely the Ukrainian government would give in to Russian demands, rather than continue sacrificing it's citizens.

 

[Agent23]

2S4 - 240 mm self-propelled mortar, I always had a soft spot for it.



The problem is that the insurgency would be predominantly men between 18-35 years of age, Ukraine lost much of this population to emigration in the last few years and vast majority are unlikely to return, so the loss of their best trained troops to the encirclements in Donbass region would be a devastating blow to the nascent insurgency, so it's more likely the Ukrainian government would give in to Russian demands, rather than continue sacrificing it's citizens.

That thing's production was literally discontinued before I was born, dude.

Also update on CRP:



He actually got to Kharkov.I wonder how far his friend that was going to Poland got in the meantime.

2S4 - 240 mm self-propelled mortar, I always had a soft spot for it.



The problem is that the insurgency would be predominantly men between 18-35 years of age, Ukraine lost much of this population to emigration in the last few years and vast majority are unlikely to return, so the loss of their best trained troops to the encirclements in Donbass region would be a devastating blow to the nascent insurgency, so it's more likely the Ukrainian government would give in to Russian demands, rather than continue sacrificing it's citizens.

If they had enough of those willing to fight they wouldn't IMO have to release prisoners and forcibly block all men between 18-60 from exiting the country.

The only benefit from that is IMO clogging up the roads and bridges and preventing Russia from cratering them.




More contributions to the brave freedom fighters of the DNR and
NR from John Bull/NoJo and Uncle Sam/Sloppy Joe Brandon.



I am sure they are grateful and will pass them along to other freedom-loving people once the time comes!

 

[Terthna]

Hannity calling for Russian military to coup Putin. Not really a realistic idea, and probably will only inflame things.

From what I know of Russian politics, Putin is actually something of a moderate, comparatively speaking; anyone who'd replace him would likely be a lot more aggressive.

 

[Chiron]

Delusions huh? How.... Polite.

Energy efficiency issues can be addressed by economy of scale, such as widespread adoption and larger scale facilities.

As to Enviromentalism.... Who gives a fuck.

Kill the Birds.

Enviromentalism is used as an excuse. The populace get pressured to take on financial burdens and recycle despite most sorted waste not being recycled.

It is a pathetic mess.

Environmentalism could be less pathetic it is true, but could is far from that which IS.

I am being polite, because widespread adoption of this will wreck the environment without which our civilization will collapse. A look at history will tell you that. Most civilizations were brought down entirely due to environmental factors they exacerbated due to overuse of resources.

If you do not understand that, I can't help you. Technology and all those other buzzwords are not going to save us, only a mass collective response and complete reprioritization of how we utilize our resources will. But we are all too busy arguing about Woke, Left/Right, etc instead of what is the right path.





First I hear of Kharkiv surrounded, which if so, means the UkA's mobile reserves are either depleted or redeploying.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Anywho... more unverified Twitter Updates!

Melitopol near Crimea was, AFAIK, the first Ukrainian city to be completely occupied by the Russian Invasion. Here's a video of civilians blocking a convoy there.



Speaking of Melitopol, apparently a Ukrainian ballistic missile was fired at targets there. The rocket motor actually fell on a residence in the town.



Another video showing the abandonment of destroyed vehicles that allegedly belong to higher tier Russian units.





Yuge column of Russian forces in convoy reportedly advancing towards Kharkov.



And random foreign policy stories.

The Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan is on a two day visit to Russia and there's a trade deal for Russian Wheat and Natural Gas in the works.

Khan After Putin Visit: Pakistan to Import Wheat, Gas from Russia

Prime Minister presses ahead with long-planned two-day trip hours after Russian forces invaded Ukraine

www.voanews.com

Russia threatened Canada with retaliation due to the hostile protests that occurred outside of the Russian Embassy in Ottawa and two other Consulates in a formal protest. Also while it wasn't posted here, there was a story that Russia was withdrawing its diplomats from Russia, that turned out to be premature.

Russia calls in Canadian envoy, complains over protests outside its embassy

Russia threatened Canada on Monday with retaliation if it failed to ensure the safety of its diplomats and complained over what it said were hostile protests outside its embassy in Ottawa and two other consulates. In a statement, Russia’s foreign ministry said it had called in Canada’s...

canadanewsmedia.ca

Also Russia threatened "retaliation" for countries that supply Ukraine with weapons.

“EU citizens and structures involved in supplying lethal weapons and fuel and lubricants to the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be responsible for any consequences of such actions in the context of the ongoing special military operation [in Ukraine]. They cannot fail to understand the degree of danger of the consequences,” state agency Interfax cited the ministry as saying.

Russia lashes out at countries arming Ukraine: Understand danger of consequences

Russia lashed out at countries that decided to provide “lethal” weapons to Ukraine, threatening them with the “danger of the consequences” should those

english.alarabiya.net

 

[ATP]

Jokes aside - what happened is good for everybody but Russia and Ukraine.Becouse USA could not sell Europe,or part of it,to Russia now.

Which Biden handlers would do in heartbreak if Putin have brain.Well,another proof,that secret police should not run country.
Those dudes knew how put population into shit,and governing need more.



So,pray for Putin.if somebody kill him,and made deal with Biden owners,entire Europe would be selled to Russia for help again China.Fun thing - country who most need help from China is Russia,but they still would get Europe from USA for helping agaist Pekin - if Putin was smart enough to do so.

China is at best position - as long as Putin rule,they could take Taiwan without risk of USA retaliation.And keep slowly taking Siberia,which is,after all,their rightfull property.

P.S @Agent23 - so called russian orthodox church is lead by KGB officer/not agent-officer/ so they are part of KGB,not church.And yes,they would do whatever Kremlin rulers wont.No matter who rule there.

 

[Scottty]

In theory they could make the sanctions permanent but as that requires the EU and US to abandon their stupid green energy plans, I have my doubts about them doing that.

If their "green energy" is really about outsourcing energy production to other parts of the world...

The forces of evil have probably won. I'm not really sure its possible for them to lose. Heads they win, tails you lose and all that.

Well aren't you a bundle of joy today.

 

[Duke Nukem]

 

[Chiron]

Uh, where the hell are you gettingthis information on Iran and Venezuela?
Though i can beilieve the later, the former? Need citations

Whoever is in charge of logistics, I'm surprised they haven't quit yet.

They even still have 40 F-14s in flyable condition with 3 more in overhaul and thanks to an under-the-table deal with South Korea, even have 64 F-4s still flying after the South Koreans, 'accidentally,' shipped them enough parts to build 30 of them.

But yeah as another poster said, this is common knowledge, what rock have you been living under? Then again the US lost to the Taliban and still can't figure out the difference between fighting a Colonial War with a 3rd world nation and fighting a Mass Maneuver War with an industrial nation. Ah well.



TOS-1s are now in action. An indication UkA's counter-battery capabilities have been knocked out or degraded enough to not take out these bad boys.

Overall, its looking more and more clear the Ukrainian Military no longer has the means to counter-attack in a strong enough blow to throw the Russians back, nor the means to wrest the skies from the Russians, or engage in effective counter-battery fires.

Despite an on paper, impressive SRBM capability, it has not been able to hit Russian staging bases, the missiles either being intercepted or the launchers unable to pop up long enough to launch without being whacked.

Zelensky has no good options anymore.

 

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Zelensky has no good options anymore.

Seems like once Russia obtained air supremacy a couple days into the campaign and the Russians were 20 minutes outside of the capital, that was when he should've surrendered, since from that point on he'd just be delaying the inevitable and pointlessly dooming people to die for no reason. He instead, he handed out weapons to civilians and released criminals onto the streets. Maybe he imagines himself being the leader of a glorious resistance that will go down fighting, or he has orders to drag this out.

 

[Wargamer08]

I mean handing out weapons could and should have been handled much better but I have nothing against arming the population of a country. Opening up the prisons and arming convicts though? That screams of both desperation and contempt for your own populus.

 

[Husky_Khan]

But if he runs after all his words, Ukrainian patriots should hunt him down and give him a cowards death for treason.

Meh. The fact he's still in Kyiv even when it was suggested he depart for Lviv and is still there even after the Russians have been in the suburbs and even reportedly close to surrounding the city for days now seems to illustrate he has a bit more personal courage then many of his political contemporaries. And I don't understand the calling for his Cowards Death at the hands of 'Ukrainian patriots' unless that's the standard POV for any government in exile, like those during World War Two for example.

Now Putin can justify maximum violence to crush the current holdouts in the pockets he formed and say afterwards that Ukrainians had a chance to avoid all this.

Open question, are Ukrainians willing to commit 100% to resistance to the point of blowing themselves up more than the Russians can round them up before they do so? If not, then throw in the towel, become an autonomous republic of Russia while that is still on the table and wait.

Putin doesn't need to justify anything to do anything. He was able to justify Invading Ukraine and the West didn't respond with anything significant until it turned out that Ukraine wasn't going to fold over as easily as the Crimean Invasion did in 2014 and actually last a few days. If Ukraine folded as quick as Crimea did, Russia would probably facing far less sanctions and there'd be a lot more hemming and hawing from the West. Putin will say (and do) whatever he wants regardless of the Ukrainian resistance or lack thereof. There's no real threat to his power or rulership in Russia and NATO/The West isn't going to invade.

 

[sillygoose]

I mean handing out weapons could and should have been handled much better but I have nothing against arming the population of a country. Opening up the prisons and arming convicts though? That screams of both desperation and contempt for your own populus.

Yeah this is all hail mary moves, because there is no way the existing regime survives this without some sort of miracle.

 

[Floridaman]

From what I know of Russian politics, Putin is actually something of a moderate, comparatively speaking; anyone who'd replace him would likely be a lot more aggressive.

Yep, in Russian politics the united Russia party is pretty much both right and left. The liberal party the media fawned over has barely any seats at all. In fact the second most popular party is the communist party, so if the west actually succeeds in getting rid of Putin they might get their fears of the return of the Soviet Union to come true.

 

[Chiron]

Meh. The fact he's still in Kyiv even when it was suggested he depart for Lviv and is still there even after the Russians have been in the suburbs and even reportedly close to surrounding the city for days now seems to illustrate he has a bit more personal courage then many of his political contemporaries. And I don't understand the calling for his Cowards Death at the hands of 'Ukrainian patriots' unless that's the standard POV for any government in exile, like those during World War Two for example

The latter, you don't quit your nation just because it is hard and bad, you stay and make it better. You only quit your nation when it breaks the social contract with you and you have no extended clan anymore to fall back on.

Putin doesn't need to justify anything to do anything. He was able to justify Invading Ukraine and the West didn't respond with anything significant until it turned out that Ukraine wasn't going to fold over as easily as the Crimean Invasion did in 2014 and actually last a few days. If Ukraine folded as quick as Crimea did, Russia would probably facing far less sanctions and there'd be a lot more hemming and hawing from the West. Putin will say (and do) whatever he wants regardless of the Ukrainian resistance or lack thereof. There's no real threat to his power or rulership in Russia and NATO/The West isn't going to invade.

He still has to go through all the forms first. Its the same thing as not violating sacred parley. He opened up soft, the UkA dug in within cities and armed the civilians, thus forfeiting the protections afforded non-combatants and making cities legitimate military targets.

 

[Terthna]

Meh. The fact he's still in Kyiv even when it was suggested he depart for Lviv and is still there even after the Russians have been in the suburbs and even reportedly close to surrounding the city for days now seems to illustrate he has a bit more personal courage then many of his political contemporaries. And I don't understand the calling for his Cowards Death at the hands of 'Ukrainian patriots' unless that's the standard POV for any government in exile, like those during World War Two for example.

Is he still in Kyiv though? Because as far as I'm aware, all we've got for proof of that right now is him saying that he is.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Just glad the Russian liberal democratic party isn't in charge if they were then nukes flying would happen

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Just glad the Russian liberal democratic party isn't in charge if they were then nukes flying would happen

Then we’d really get Zhirinovsky’s Russian Empire in real time instead of an alternate timeline.

 

[Arlos]

Just glad the Russian liberal democratic party isn't in charge if they were then nukes flying would happen

They are very Liberal, they’d liberate people from their mortal coil, and also very democratic; they’d do it to the majority of people in the world.