Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[The Whispering Monk]

If anyone wonders why Russian artillery ammo is not running out as fast as predicted...

I wasn't wondering. Mostly I'm wondering how long the Russian barrels will survive. Estimates range from 15-30% of that ammo is bad (duds or misfires), and sometimes a misfire looks like a dud until you poke it wrong.

Russia has a definite advantage in towed artillery other similar 'dumb' artillery. It's one reason Russian manufacturing is pushing to more rocket artillery. You don't really have to worry about barrel wear, and a single unit can put out a large volume of fire fairly quickly. It's just getting more and more inaccurate. So we're looking at more of an old style, cold war era game supplemented with loads of remote spotters. Makes corrective fires more accurate.

Downside there is that it requires a great deal more time to get follow on fires on target. This leaves Russian artillery much more vulnerable to counter battery than Ukrainian's current inventory.

 

[Marduk]

Note the demographics...

I wasn't wondering. Mostly I'm wondering how long the Russian barrels will survive. Estimates range from 15-30% of that ammo is bad (duds or misfires), and sometimes a misfire looks like a dud until you poke it wrong.

Russia has a definite advantage in towed artillery other similar 'dumb' artillery. It's one reason Russian manufacturing is pushing to more rocket artillery. You don't really have to worry about barrel wear, and a single unit can put out a large volume of fire fairly quickly. It's just getting more and more inaccurate. So we're looking at more of an old style, cold war era game supplemented with loads of remote spotters. Makes corrective fires more accurate.

Downside there is that it requires a great deal more time to get follow on fires on target. This leaves Russian artillery much more vulnerable to counter battery than Ukrainian's current inventory.

Rockets are also extremely quality sensitive when it comes to accuracy and are more challenging in logistics and handling than shells.

 

[Bacle]

 

[Husky_Khan]

Ukrainians attacking wounded targets. Clearly a possible war crime.



The Submarine struck by a Storm shadow missile strike back in the Fall of 2023 and undergoing repairs was struck again in a Ukrainian attack, this time reportedly sinking it.

Also some long range air defense systems were also reportedly eliminated.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Ukrainian Armed Forces, not just Ukrainian supported Russian fighters, have made an incursion into Kursk, described as about three hundred troops back by tanks, armored vehicles and close air support aircraft. Vehicles used include American Strykers reportedly. Vehicle losses reported by both sides.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Day Two of the Battle of Kursk I guess...

Russian Milblog Accounts Reporting That the Ukrainians have dense air defense in the area of attack (the Ukrainians reportedly lost two Buk Air Defense Vehicles to Lancet UAV/Iskander Missile strikes yesterday). Also reports of penetrations into Russian territory upwards of 10-15 kilometers.







The Russians lost two Helicopter Gunships including a Ka-52 shot down and an Mi-28 reportedly attacked by three FPV drones while in flight. At least one of the drones struck the Gunship, downing it.



There is also criticism of the Chechen Akhmat Battalion which was reportedly one of the units designated to defend this part of the border. But the Chechens posted video of them engaging the enemy... who must be hiding in the trees.



Twitter thread compiling some of the Russian commentary on the attack, including the ineffective resistance of the brave Chechen fighters supposed to defend the Russian border. There was apparently warning of the incoming attack, with Russian Recon Forces attempting cross border operations having been wiped out in the days prior. Also the multiple defensive lines and trenches supposedly along the border were easily penetrated. Conscripts had to be sent into the engagement supporting the border guards. There's a lack of proper infantry, artillery and armored support, only aviation which is having to confront Ukrainian air defenses etc.

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Russian milbloggers are furious at the failure of Russia's Ministry of Defence to protect the Kursk region border from the current large-scale Ukrainian incursion. They call the situation there "hel...…

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[Bacle]

 

[Zachowon]

They need to blow it up

 

[Bacle]

Good point, if UA is controlling parts of Kursk Oblast on the ground, including the gas terminal, then any freezing of the conflict lines by Putin cedes control of that, and parts of Kursk Oblast, to UA forces

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Good point, if UA is controlling parts of Kursk Oblast on the ground, including the gas terminal, then any freezing of the conflict lines by Putin cedes control of that, and parts of Kursk Oblast, to UA forces

I've been expecting some sort of break through away from the northern areas Russia is going after for a while. We'll see in the next 72 hours how well Russia prepared mobile reserves for something like this or if they were pinning their hopes on their version of the Maginot Line.

The Kursk area is close enough to the areas Russia is currently attacking that they will be tempted to pull forces from that attack in order to stop the push by Ukraine.

 

[Marduk]

I've been expecting some sort of break through away from the northern areas Russia is going after for a while. We'll see in the next 72 hours how well Russia prepared mobile reserves for something like this or if they were pinning their hopes on their version of the Maginot Line.

The Kursk area is close enough to the areas Russia is currently attacking that they will be tempted to pull forces from that attack in order to stop the push by Ukraine.

The rumors are that they didn't prepare much, and are doing a mad scramble for everything within few hundreds km that can be loaded onto a car, truck or train on short notice.

 

[Bacle]

Good point, Russia far less likely to use FAB bombardment against their own soil, so this is a better use of UA reserves than waiting for FABs down south in the trenches.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

The rumors are that they didn't prepare much, and are doing a mad scramble for everything within few hundreds km that can be loaded onto a car, truck or train on short notice.

If I were the Ukrainians I'd have a few hundred drones ready to like into the Russian Reserves as they move towards Kursk.

Log jam the main roads then Highway of Death the rest.

 

[Bacle]

If I were the Ukrainians I'd have a few hundred drones ready to like into the Russian Reserves as they move towards Kursk.

Log jam the main roads then Highway of Death the rest.

UA brought a shit ton of SHORAD, Strykers, and are under partial Patriot cover there.

What they do with FPV's from their new positions or during this raid could be very interesting.

UA holding that pipeline station is also a big deal for Russia, and it puts a direct pressure on Orban, who was still buying that Russian gas.

Also, the Kursk NPP could be a good bit of leverage if UA can get ahold of it, and Ru won't bomb their own reactor complex.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

...snip

I'd be laying demo charges on the pipeline and all the transmission lines from the NPP.

 

[Bacle]

I'd be laying demo charges on the pipeline and all the transmission lines from the NPP.

I mean sure, but I'd also be trying to use them the same way Russia has used some UA NPPs; shielded arty/drone hubs, and munition storage that Ru are unlikely to bomb.

Use Ru infrastructure as a shield from their attacks, while using it as leverage to get Russia to remove it's troops from the Donbass and Crimea.

The pipeline, maybe the NPP, and frankly anything of value in Kursk UA should attempt to take and hug it as close as they can, to make Russia unable to use it's air power to dislodge the forces.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Two years in, and Ukrainian tanks are rolling into Russia.

Not quite the quick victory Putin might have been hoping for.

 

[Zachowon]

I mean sure, but I'd also be trying to use them the same way Russia has used some UA NPPs; shielded arty/drone hubs, and munition storage that Ru are unlikely to bomb.

Use Ru infrastructure as a shield from their attacks, while using it as leverage to get Russia to remove it's troops from the Donbass and Crimea.

The pipeline, maybe the NPP, and frankly anything of value in Kursk UA should attempt to take and hug it as close as they can, to make Russia unable to use it's air power to dislodge the forces.

Destroy the pipe hold the NPP

 

[Husky_Khan]

Destroy the pipe hold the NPP

The Russians can pay Ukraine for transit use of the liberated terminal like a civilized country.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Looks like the Ukrainian are still advancing. What was originally reported as three hundred troops being deployed before might be a multi brigade offensive now.

170+ square kilometers of territory occupied... Uhhh conquered... Liberated? Whatever.





Media reportedly indicates well over a hundred POWs captured by advancing Ukrainian forces.



A notable Russian media personality named Yevgeny Poddubny was apparently killed by a Ukrainian FPV drone in the area. Rest in Peace.





More moderate analysis of the incursion. Stating Ukraine is still engaged in high risk gambling and that Ukraine hopefully has a long term plan for how the operation will unfold lest short term success results in long term consequences.

Thread by @J_JHelin on Thread Reader App

@J_JHelin: Some thoughts on what's happening in Kursk. The Russian border defences were most likely prepared to slow down and stop smaller-scale raids. Looking at the Russian telegram channels it seems that the Russ...…

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