Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

[King Arts]

No, it's not perfectly viable, it would have titanic consequences for US international relations, and generally negative ones, forget about having alliances anymore for a generation at least.
But of course absolutely everything can be viable in your imagination if you ignore everything beyond the tip of your nose hard enough.

I feel that’s not true or fair. An alliance does not have to last an eternity we aren’t chained to NATO for the next thousand years. As long as we would leave before an enemy attacks then we haven’t betrayed anything. Leaving after an ally was attacked would harm our reputation though.

 

[Marduk]

I feel that’s not true or fair. An alliance does not have to last an eternity we aren’t chained to NATO for the next thousand years. As long as we would leave before an enemy attacks then we haven’t betrayed anything. Leaving after an ally was attacked would harm our reputation though.

Why the red herring barrage? Yes, chances are NATO won't last a thousand years, but if we are talking this decade and probably next few ones, it's there to stay more likely than not.
Leaving an alliance right before known incoming attack sounds like perfidy that would work to break a 4x videogame's diplomatic model, but IRL would also cause a massive trust issue.

 

[King Arts]

Why the red herring barrage? Yes, chances are NATO won't last a thousand years, but if we are talking this decade and probably next few ones, it's there to stay more likely than not.
Leaving an alliance right before known incoming attack sounds like perfidy that would work to break a 4x videogame's diplomatic model, but IRL would also cause a massive trust issue.

I mean the day before sure. But any Russian invasion of NATO nations is at least a decade away and that's being generous to Russia. Leaving an alliance and then 10 years later that alliance getting in war and needing your help and you refusing to help is in no way perfidy.

 

[Marduk]

I mean the day before sure. But any Russian invasion of NATO nations is at least a decade away and that's being generous to Russia. Leaving an alliance and then 10 years later that alliance getting in war and needing your help and you refusing to help is in no way perfidy.

10 years without NATO is optimistic.

 

[King Arts]

10 years without NATO is optimistic.

You think with the trouble Russia is facing in Ukraine right now, that if America left NATO tomorrow that Russia would be able to steamroll Ukraine and then within 10 years Russia would be able to take on NATO minus America? Really you think the Russians are that much of a threat and that Ukraine hasn't mauled and castrated them?

 

[Cherico]

You think with the trouble Russia is facing in Ukraine right now, that if America left NATO tomorrow that Russia would be able to steamroll Ukraine and then within 10 years Russia would be able to take on NATO minus America? Really you think the Russians are that much of a threat and that Ukraine hasn't mauled and castrated them?

I think its going to take a couple more years of this to castrate russia as a power.

Place is big wearing them downs going to take awhile.

 

[King Arts]

I think its going to take a couple more years of this to castrate russia as a power.

Place is big wearing them downs going to take awhile.

I might be hyperbolic. But do you really think Russia would be ready to invade Poland within 10 years if fighting stopped in Ukraine today? Russia did face a lot of damage from their war with Ukraine already. Russia might still win of course since they are large but that victory will be a pyrrhic one for them.

 

[Marduk]

You think with the trouble Russia is facing in Ukraine right now, that if America left NATO tomorrow that Russia would be able to steamroll Ukraine and then within 10 years Russia would be able to take on NATO minus America? Really you think the Russians are that much of a threat and that Ukraine hasn't mauled and castrated them?

If America left NATO tomorrow, i would not bet on NATO existing in 10 years.
For making a sense out of random ass guesses, Ukrainian politicians in interviews say they expect another war with Russia in few years if the current one is frozen. So yeah, as soon as NATO is unable to function properly, Russia would go for smaller and easier targets than Ukraine, like Baltics.

 

[AmosTrask]

Everything that was inside the Iron Curtain would be invaded if NATO disappeared. The Russian mindset is still stuck in 1800 Russia. They conflate territorial expansion with security.

 

[King Arts]

If America left NATO tomorrow, i would not bet on NATO existing in 10 years.
For making a sense out of random ass guesses, Ukrainian politicians in interviews say they expect another war with Russia in few years if the current one is frozen. So yeah, as soon as NATO is unable to function properly, Russia would go for smaller and easier targets than Ukraine, like Baltics.

What? Why would NATO dissolve without America? I mean I would think that NATO would come together more United if their strongest member left.

 

[Marduk]

What? Why would NATO dissolve without America? I mean I would think that NATO would come together more United if their strongest member left.

I completely fail to see the logic in that, it's like expecting a band to come together more with the only superstar member leaving.

 

[Abhorsen]

I completely fail to see the logic in that, it's like expecting a band to come together more with the only superstar member leaving.

I mean, it'd still exist, just kinda not matter much. They'd all know that soon they'd be kinda fucked. But they'd also realize that they can start war with each other without the US nearby. And we'd start to have new European wars eventually, I think, not just with Russia. It'd take a while, but it'd happen.

 

[Bacle]

I mean, it'd still exist, just kinda not matter much. They'd all know that soon they'd be kinda fucked. But they'd also realize that they can start war with each other without the US nearby. And we'd start to have new European wars eventually, I think, not just with Russia. It'd take a while, but it'd happen.

Yeah, even without Russia in the mix, the Turks and Greeks are still very much not friends despite both being in NATO, and Erdogan's neo-Ottoman dreams are still there.

Plus the Balkan's would still be the Balkans and the Serbs have been getting twitchy lately.

 

[Rocinante]

NATO completely falls apart without the US. The US is the glue that keeps NATO together.

 

[AmosTrask]

Hahaha! The Russian patrol ship Pavel Derzhavin ran into its own minefields and sank! You've gotta love those drunk Russians! One of the only navies still issuing bottles of alcohol in the daily rations. I hope for more such

 

[Cherico]

I might be hyperbolic. But do you really think Russia would be ready to invade Poland within 10 years if fighting stopped in Ukraine today? Russia did face a lot of damage from their war with Ukraine already. Russia might still win of course since they are large but that victory will be a pyrrhic one for them.

Yes.

Russia at this point of time feels like their in a do or die moment of history and has to expand to defensible boarders so they can essentially hold in place dispite their horrific demographics. Conquering poland up to warsaw, the baltics, and southern europe to the carphatians is a part of this plan.

If given the chance they would most definitly do so, the reason the US opposes this is because getting those defensible boarders would mean conquring an area that has more people then russia, and it would mean one of the largest genocides in human history as Russians go on an ethnic cleaensing spree to attempt to hold this area.

And it would still be for naught because Russias demographic situation is termnial, their educational system collapsed more or less 20 years ago and their so fraunt and riddled with corruption that the country is basically screwed. It would all just end up collapsing anyways and result in a whole lot of meaningless bloodshed.

But the Russians would still do this for a chance of survival damned the costs, which is why the west is willing to fight to the very last Ukrainian to make sure that russia's ambitions die in the Ukraine.

The War of Ukraine is essentially the last war if were lucky of the cold war. The goal being to put the final nail in russias coffin of being a great power. Its been pretty successful but its no where near finished. Russians fight until they cant fight any more and you need at least a half million dead russians before they quit.

Its likely its going to be over a million when the dust settles.

 

[Bacle]

More EU nations are freezing what Russian assets exist in them

 

[Bacle]

Russia-Ukraine war as it happened: Putin to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing in first visit outside former Soviet Union since March

Russian president and his Chinese counterpart will hold talks in Putin’s furthest visit since international arrest warrant issued in March

www.theguardian.com

Siberian governor under investigation for telling the truth about the state of the Russian armed forces.

"Are you asking me (why your husband does not have equipment), knowing that I'm the governor and not the minister of defence?", the 67-year-old said.

"As a whole, we did not prepare for this war. We don't need it. We were building a completely different world, so in this regard, there will certainly be some inconsistencies and unresolved issues," she added.

Komarova's comments spread quickly online, reportedly prompting pro-war activists to denounce the politician to authorities for "discrediting Russia's armed forces".

 

[Scottty]

Siberian governor under investigation for telling the truth about the state of the Russian armed forces.

Key element there: Siberian governor.
There seems to be a non-trivial proportion of Russians who are saying or thinking along the lines of: "We don't need to conquer more land, we already have all the land we need."

 

[Bacle]

Heh, the butthurt from the Kremlin over WoT selling UA camo patterns is hilarious and now any Russian who buys said camo pattern will be accused of aiding Ukraine and get charged with Treason.