Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

[Zachowon]

They would win? How? North Korea will be backed by China and probably Russia as well.

Okay and? South Korea is no slouch in terms of weaponry, ans thw fact that they would have to fight on a small area of the world, and that it would basically take away any forces Russia has to be used in Ukraone, and it would drastically weaken China as thier focus has not been around there.

Add in the fact that knowing how it would go, it would not be fun for the Norskies

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Okay and? South Korea is no slouch in terms of weaponry, ans thw fact that they would have to fight on a small area of the world, and that it would basically take away any forces Russia has to be used in Ukraone, and it would drastically weaken China as thier focus has not been around there.

Add in the fact that knowing how it would go, it would not be fun for the Norskies

If the USA gets directly involved in Korea, China and Russia will as well, and unlike the USA they have a direct land border.

 

[Zachowon]

If the USA gets directly involved in Korea, China and Russia will as well, and unlike the USA they have a direct land border.

Okay...China's and Russias land borders are small.
And last time it didn't mean much that land border now did it....
Russia has a tiny land border and definitely does not have the manpower to deal with anything there.
China has a slightly larger one, but does it have the troops necessary on that border to participate?
Add in the NEO/Civilian aspects of refugees? Those borders will be backed up with refugees not soldiers

I can assure you, it is accounted for u like you seem to think.
Having been there I would know

 

[LordsFire]

If the USA gets directly involved in Korea, China and Russia will as well, and unlike the USA they have a direct land border.

The Russian military is too committed to Ukraine to make more than a token commitment to a war in Korea, and given the wretched showing they've been giving against the Ukrainians, after US air power severed their rail connections across Siberia, they'd be more or less a non-factor.

If China went in on North Korea's side, that would make a meaningful difference, but also almost certainly bring in Japan, Philipines, Vietnam, Australia, and quite possibly India.

They'd be able to inflict casualties, but even if they performed halfway between the current Russian standard and the standard of an actually competent military (unlikely, odds are they're at least as bad as Russia), they'd get crushed.

Even if they performed to the level of an actually competent military, their sharp technological disadvantage would almost certainly result in them losing. They do have some fully modernized kit, but the vast majority of their military inventory is old, inferior knock-offs of Cold War Soviet equipment.

China might be able to win a defensive engagement against US & Allies, but that'd almost entirely rely on massive networks of defensive AA platforms. Fighting in Korea, where they would not have that advantage, they'd get bloodied, and badly, very quickly.

 

[Bassoe]

 

[mrttao]

I genuinely can't tell if this is a parody or real anymore.
I mean, it has to be a joke.

But... so does the idea of pedophiles wearing a demon costume and a dress and reading stories to children under heavy police guard who are forced to call them a woman as they "accidentally" expose their dicks to the kids

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Okay...China's and Russias land borders are small.
And last time it didn't mean much that land border now did it....
Russia has a tiny land border and definitely does not have the manpower to deal with anything there.
China has a slightly larger one, but does it have the troops necessary on that border to participate?
Add in the NEO/Civilian aspects of refugees? Those borders will be backed up with refugees not soldiers

I can assure you, it is accounted for u like you seem to think.
Having been there I would know

How much of a land border does the USA have? China can put men and supplies into Korea alot quicker and more easily than the USA can.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

The Russian military is too committed to Ukraine to make more than a token commitment to a war in Korea, and given the wretched showing they've been giving against the Ukrainians, after US air power severed their rail connections across Siberia, they'd be more or less a non-factor.

lol. im not going to reargue all the ukraine stuff but...

Good luck with that. first getting there isnt simple, and second repairing track is trivial. And if you actually attack Russia directly, you can expect American ships to be sunk and cruise missiles to be landing on american soil.

If China went in on North Korea's side, that would make a meaningful difference, but also almost certainly bring in Japan, Philipines, Vietnam, Australia, and quite possibly India.

Not if. When. North Korea would be a red line for the Chinese. China wont assist NK if it attacks the South, but it would absolutely intervene if the USA gets involved

Neither Vietnam nor India will do anything to help Korea. the Philippines and Australia are militarily insignificant. Japan and the USA are what matters here.

Even if they performed to the level of an actually competent military, their sharp technological disadvantage would almost certainly result in them losing. They do have some fully modernized kit, but the vast majority of their military inventory is old, inferior knock-offs of Cold War Soviet equipment.

China might be able to win a defensive engagement against US & Allies, but that'd almost entirely rely on massive networks of defensive AA platforms. Fighting in Korea, where they would not have that advantage, they'd get bloodied, and badly, very quickly.

Have you forgotten that china is the foremost drone power on earth?

They also have vast amounts of artillery and the means to manufacture whatever the hell they need to. Rockets and drones will rain down in huge numbers everywhere and china is going to be in a far better logistical situation than the USA.

If the USA gets involved against North Korea, you can expect a half million chinese to join in fairly short order.

 

[Zachowon]

How much of a land border does the USA have? China can put men and supplies into Korea alot quicker and more easily than the USA can.

Not as easily.
They have to transport a very long while
All it takes for us is to move forces from Japan.
By the time the Inidcations and Warning are there it won't be simple as "Oh no we are being attacked!!!!"
It would be a "oh...we are ready mf"

 

[Bacle]

Good post on setting realistic expectations of the speed of advance, the difficulties being encountered, and the reality this single counter-offensive was never going to give Ukraine victory in one stroke. Underplaying the threat of Russian mines and loitering munitions in particular, has set some unrealistic expectations for how fast Ukraine could gain ground, and those unrealistic short term expectations hurt the ability to conduct and prepare long-term plans beyond any single counter-offensive.

 

[Rocinante]

Good post on setting realistic expectations of the speed of advance, the difficulties being encountered, and the reality this single counter-offensive was never going to give Ukraine victory in one stroke. Underplaying the threat of Russian mines and loitering munitions in particular, has set some unrealistic expectations for how fast Ukraine could gain ground, and those unrealistic short term expectations hurt the ability to conduct and prepare long-term plans beyond any single counter-offensive.

"The counter offensive failed. so now we're backtracking and changing the narrative, so that all the fools who eat this shit up will keep supporting this"

 

[Marduk]

"The counter offensive failed. so now we're backtracking and changing the narrative, so that all the fools who eat this shit up will keep supporting this"

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
So much for "OMG they didn't win yet so the counter-offensive failed".
No, rationally no one is supporting Ukraine on the condition of counter-offensive having immediate total victory.

 

[Bacle]

"The counter offensive failed. so now we're backtracking and changing the narrative, so that all the fools who eat this shit up will keep supporting this"

It has not failed, just because it was not Desert Storm 2.0, you nitwit.

No one but the most optimistic fools, or disingenuous charlatans setting up unrealistic expectations, thought it would be a 'one counter-offensive and we win' situation for Ukraine. I knew it wasn't going to be a 'one-counter-offensive and we win' situaiton.

The goal of this offensive is to try to cut the landbridge to Crimea, to turn Russian forces there into hostages, and it is still going that direction.

The only people who think this is a 'failure' are people who are not paying attention to the fight on the ground, what the actual goal of this offensive was, or just want to make people cut support to Ukraine regardless of the facts on the ground.

Very much seems like you are in category two.

 

[Rocinante]

It has not failed, just because it was not Desert Storm 2.0, you nitwit.

No one but the most optimistic fools, or disingenuous charlatans setting up unrealistic expectations, thought it would be a 'one counter-offensive and we win' situation for Ukraine. I knew it wasn't going to be a 'one-counter-offensive and we win' situaiton.

The goal of this offensive is to try to cut the landbridge to Crimea, to turn Russian forces there into hostages, and it is still going that direction.

The only people who think this is a 'failure' are people who are not paying attention to the fight on the ground, what the actual goal of this offensive was, or just want to make people cut support to Ukraine regardless of the facts on the ground.

Very much seems like you are in category two.

I'll just wait for their next failure so yall can change the narrative again lmao

 

[Bacle]

I'll just wait for their next failure so yall can change the narrative again lmao

This hasn't been a 'failure', even if it is going slower than desired by some in the west.

And what will happen when Ukraine does win, and your narrative of Russia will get what it wants collapses on itself?

 

[AnimalNoodles]

This hasn't been a 'failure', even if it is going slower than desired by some in the west.

And what will happen when Ukraine does win, and your narrative of Russia will get what it wants collapses on itself?

so after 4 months, what objectives have been achieved?

 

[Marduk]

so after 4 months, what objectives have been achieved?

Dead Russian soldiers and destroyed war material. Lots of it.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Dead Russian soldiers and destroyed war material. Lots of it.

so...basically nothing.

you think waging a war of attrition against an fortified enemy who outnumbers you, outproduces you and has more firepower is a winning strategy?

nice.

 

[Bacle]

so after 4 months, what objectives have been achieved?

Let's see, UA has been pushing closer and closer to medium arty range of the Azov coast, have been ganking Ru SAM sites, artillery, and logistics continuously. Add in the naval war aspect, and Russia is down several ships and one sub, along with several S-400 complexes (of which they have a very limited supply due to sanctions making new S-400s difficult to produce).

And for a bit of perspective, it took nearly 6 months for the Allies to break out of the Normandy hedgerow country after D-Day.

 

[Marduk]

so...basically nothing.

you think waging a war of attrition against an fortified enemy who outnumbers you, outproduces you and has more firepower is a winning strategy?

nice.

We're not in WW2 technology anymore, so cut the convenient generalities.
Even Russian ultranationalists mock the famed production and firepower as mass creation of moonscapes in random fields that looks impressive but has no proportional military benefit.
Sometimes 10 accurate shells are worth more than 100 not very accurate ones.