Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

[Bacle]

Sounds like an urban legend.
Alaska - EOT for me

No, not those days.

If someone from Russia wanted to go East to Alaska, the had to either try to traverse the Arctic Sea during it's brief ice-less period in summer, or do the same trip overland, and if they went west, it still mean getting to the America's, and to the Alaskan peninsula, which for most of history was pretty fucking hard for everyone but the locals to get to or traverse.

A 5 year round trip time, when accounting for anything going wrong with the Russian ships and just bad weather delaying the trip by months/years due to early or late sea ice. Look at history and Russia's surface fleet, it's one of the best comedic horror stories around.

Only after the TranSiberian railroad was built did Russia really put a lot of effort into Alaska, rather than random explorers or merchants visiting and trading, or missionaries arriving.

Everything I've seen from rando's inside Russia shows them bitter over Alaska and it's sale/ 'lease'. Governors in eastern/Asian Russia have bee increasingly taking out ads in public about how Alaska is Russian land. The population seems bitter about how much mineral wealth they lost out on by selling it to the US, even if it was done to spite the British.

 

[Zachowon]

They can try

 

[AmosTrask]

Sounds like an urban legend or a case of "stupidity is strong in this one". Please check your sources.
Alaska - EOT for me

Not at that time. There was no railroad to Vladivostok. Vladivostok did not exist it was a Manchu fishing village. The Suez Canal also did not exist. By steam ships I mean wooden ships with both sails and paddlewheels or outright sailing ships as the majority of the Trade Company's fleet consisted of. You either traveled the Arctic route in the short period it's clear then cross the Pacific to Alaska. At which point you arrive just before or right as winter sets in. You're stuck there until May if you don't get refueled and loaded before the ice locks you in.

If you miraculously get everything done and leave before the ice you need to take the Western route or the Southern route to St. Petersburg. West follows the coast of Asia, then Africa through Capetown then up to Europe. The southern route goes through the perilous Straits of Magellan then you can take the two crossing routes to Africa or go up the coast and take the Mid-Atlantic or North-Atlantic crossing. The Convoy traveled at the speed of the slowest ship.

You are doing this while avoiding the ships and territories of Russia's Imperial rivals from the British to the Qing; who have no qualms at siezing Russian ships.

Suez was 1859, Trans-Siberian Rail 1904, the Panama Canal 1914. So no. It is not stupidity on my part. Russia was still using wood and sail when the British and French transitioned to metal hulls and clippers. Metal hulls were prohibitively expensive for Russia's near medieval industry.

Goods were shipped in bales, barrels and crates loaded by hand. The first standardized modular containers was not invented until after WW1

 

[mrttao]

Or, you know, we're not assuming the other person's argument, and know that Russia can want Alaska, even if they have absolutely no feasible ability to actually take Alaska?

It is also worth noting that "a russian politician said" is not the same as "russia is going to do".
Think of all the things american politicians say. usually at cross purpose because they do not all agree.

In russia putin is the ultimate arbiter. but so long as they do not challenge his authority, politicians can bicker between each other and offer opinions that putin may or may not go with.

 

[strunkenwhite]

If Moscow is willing to try to take back Alaska and stir people up domestically about it, what makes you think they won't try for Kyiv in a Round Two 4-5 years from now?

Well, I think a major part of Russian war planning for Ukraine revolved around the US staying out of it and that wouldn't exactly be likely when the US is the one being invaded.

Only after the TranSiberian railroad was built did Russia really put a lot of effort into Alaska, rather than random explorers or merchants visiting and trading, or missionaries arriving.

The Trans-Siberian railroad I'm thinking of didn't exist until decades after Alaska was sold. Please clarify.

 

[Zachowon]

Well, I think a major part of Russian war planning for Ukraine revolved around the US staying out of it and that wouldn't exactly be likely when the US is the one being invaded.

The Trans-Siberian railroad I'm thinking of didn't exist until decades after Alaska was sold. Please clarify.

Russia would most likely see the division internally in the US as a sign that we would be willing to negotiate the state if Alaska away should they gain land instead of us fighting for it due to election season and the president wanting to win reelection.
Is it stupid to think invasion of US shores would work? Yes.
Now, if there is enough of a sabateur operation there, they could potentially rig a statewide vote for Russian annexation, allowing the US to have to have a winning vote.
Would Alaska do it without Russia literally interfering?
No.
But it is a time of the world were a lot of the right seem to think Russia is a better ally then our old allies

 

[AmosTrask]

Russia would most likely see the division internally in the US as a sign that we would be willing to negotiate the state if Alaska away should they gain land instead of us fighting for it due to election season and the president wanting to win reelection.
Is it stupid to think invasion of US shores would work? Yes.
Now, if there is enough of a sabateur operation there, they could potentially rig a statewide vote for Russian annexation, allowing the US to have to have a winning vote.
Would Alaska do it without Russia literally interfering?
No.
But it is a time of the world were a lot of the right seem to think Russia is a better ally then our old allies

I'm quite sure Russia would die if they tried their Donbass bullshit in Alaska. The Alaska National Guard has been getting their armories updated and expanded by quite a large margin since 2012. I know the USN has increased patrols over there. Russian civilian and military ships have been playing fuck around games in the border areas harassing US fishing vessels and illegally fishing there. USAF and Army bases in Alaska are being rebuilt and expanded although I don't know if that was because of Russia or just modernization

 

[Zachowon]

I'm quite sure Russia would die if they tried their Donbass bullshit in Alaska. The Alaska National Guard has been getting their armories updated and expanded by quite a large margin since 2012. I know the USN has increased patrols over there. Russian civilian and military ships have been playing fuck around games in the border areas harassing US fishing vessels and illegally fishing there. USAF and Army bases in Alaska are being rebuilt and expanded although I don't know if that was because of Russia or just modernization

Modernization and China.
Oh I know they would get thier asses kicked but the Russians and internal division can make issues

 

[strunkenwhite]

Russia would most likely see the division internally in the US as a sign that we would be willing to negotiate the state if Alaska away should they gain land instead of us fighting for it due to election season and the president wanting to win reelection.
Is it stupid to think invasion of US shores would work? Yes.
Now, if there is enough of a sabateur operation there, they could potentially rig a statewide vote for Russian annexation, allowing the US to have to have a winning vote.
Would Alaska do it without Russia literally interfering?
No.
But it is a time of the world were a lot of the right seem to think Russia is a better ally then our old allies

My main point was that there's no way Russia would go all the way to starting a hot war by directly invading sovereign US territory. It's a different topic to speculate on whether Russia would attempt to suborn enough Alaskans to make a serious secession movement (to join Russia!) plausible and then arrange and rig a referendum. It is still crazy but it's not obviously impossible that a self-obsessed autocratic regime drinking its own Kool-Aid might decide that its psyop capabilities are good enough (and the US political system paralyzed enough) that they could get away with playing those kinds of games without kinetic consequences even if they don't work out, perhaps for domestic political reasons. But it does strike me as impossible that they would have glasses so rose-colored that they would deliberately seek out a ground war on North American soil with the United States of America.

North Korea dares to launch missiles over Japan to land in the sea. North Korea does not dare to land its missiles in Tokyo.

 

[Cherico]

I'm quite sure Russia would die if they tried their Donbass bullshit in Alaska. The Alaska National Guard has been getting their armories updated and expanded by quite a large margin since 2012. I know the USN has increased patrols over there. Russian civilian and military ships have been playing fuck around games in the border areas harassing US fishing vessels and illegally fishing there. USAF and Army bases in Alaska are being rebuilt and expanded although I don't know if that was because of Russia or just modernization

The russian navy, lets face facts is terrible.

Their a land power and historically when war comes the Russia navy either dies or hides in port. Going after alaska has even harder logistics then Ukraine and we've seen how well they did in Ukraine. Quite simply put they die, they die horribly if they try.

 

[AmosTrask]

The russian navy, lets face facts is terrible.

Their a land power and historically when war comes the Russia navy either dies or hides in port. Going after alaska has even harder logistics then Ukraine and we've seen how well they did in Ukraine. Quite simply put they die, they die horribly if they try.

You and I know that. Russians who've been raised in the USSR and those raised under Putin's Soviet style propaganda believe otherwise. To them Russia is the premiere World Hegemon.

 

[King Arts]

You and I know that. Russians who've been raised in the USSR and those raised under Putin's Soviet style propaganda believe otherwise. To them Russia is the premiere World Hegemon.

The Russian military and political leadership knows that also. They know the best case scenario if they attack America is they get pushed back conventionaly the worst case for them is nukes. There is no realistic scenario where Russia annexes Alaska while the US is still a 1st or even 2nd world nation. The only way they would even consider is if America is in an actual civil war and it’s infrastructure is destroyed, or if it got in a nuclear war and is now 3rd world and occupied by tribes. In no other scenario FA. Russia take Alaska.

 

[Scottty]

What would they get out of retaking Alaska anyway?

 

[stephen the barbarian]

What would they get out of retaking Alaska anyway?

oil and gold

 

[King Arts]

What would they get out of retaking Alaska anyway?

Territory is always valuable the people on it can be valuable if they want to be part of your tribe and work for it and your current population accepts them. But territory is always valued.

Of course Russia is never getting Alaska back though there is no realistic scenario where that happens.

 

[Bacle]

What would they get out of retaking Alaska anyway?

Petrochems, rare-earths (more recent discovery, not big news yet), gold, control over both sides of the Bering Straight/it's access to the Arctic, the fisheries in the Alaskan waters, several large copper deposits, and a few rocket launching complexes (Fairbanks and Kodiak Island).

The more Alaska is surveyed in depth, the more valuable shit we find in it, and the more the Russians become bitter they sold it too us for so cheap.

 

[Bacle]

This is from Tusk, the new PM of Poland.

 

[Zachowon]

So the Polish position WONT change like people thought.

 

[Cherico]

Petrochems, rare-earths (more recent discovery, not big news yet), gold, control over both sides of the Bering Straight/it's access to the Arctic, the fisheries in the Alaskan waters, several large copper deposits, and a few rocket launching complexes (Fairbanks and Kodiak Island).

The more Alaska is surveyed in depth, the more valuable shit we find in it, and the more the Russians become bitter they sold it too us for so cheap.

Russia litterally didn't have the logistical power or reach to hold onto it if it was even remotely contested. Also Russia is the largest country on the planet, they more or less have all of the resources they need inside their territory and they cant even fully exploit that.

 

[ATP]

This is from Tusk, the new PM of Poland.

He is german toy.He would say anything,and later do what germans want - and germans ALWAYS would support Moscov.

So the Polish position WONT change like people thought.

No,if you belive Tusk,you only hurt yourself.