Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2
- Thread starter Emperor Tippy
- Start date
Yes it does.
You should not accuse people of lying about provable facts available on the internet.
Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated
Nearly 51,700 deaths confirmed by April 26
en.zona.media
Ah, so this time they are relying on *publicly accessible* official data from Russian government, why would they ever lie about such things.
Welp, if you believe Russian government would never lie about such things, i have a bridge to sell you, and further conversation between us about the bridge is pointless. Unless you are willing to send me money for that bridge that is.
Long story short, i consider mediazona useless as a source for such estimate due to its obviously flawed methodology.
No i didn't. Especially the first part.
History Learner
Well-known member
Yes it does.
You should not accuse people of lying about provable facts available on the internet.
That caveat is on mediazona's own previous posts.
Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated
Nearly 51,700 deaths confirmed by April 26
When said people are engaging in lying, however, it is good to call them out on it. Can you please explain the following sentence:
"To be absolutely precise, we can assert with a 95% probability that the true number of casualties falls between 40,000 and 55,000."
Contrary to your claim, Mediazone is 95% sure of their estimate.
You literally cited publicly accessible Russian data here; where do you think this data came from?
Russian authorities have quietly ordered 230,000 certificates for family members of deceased veterans, an investigative news outlet has found, giving a rare insight into the scale of the death toll sustained by Moscow in the nearly 19-month-old war in Ukraine.
The certificates were ordered by Russia's Ministry of Labor and Social Development, independent Russian-language news outlet Verstka found on Monday, reporting that Moscow has inadvertently revealed the scale of possible losses among Russia's military in Ukraine.
Well I guess since internal propaganda is so trustworthy now, we should listen to the Biden admin about things like how the economy is so great and his other lies.
Since only external propaganda is not to be trusted in this world.
You've backed yourself into a corner here bacle, where we are simultaneously supposed to not believe Russian propaganda, but also believe Russian propaganda if it fits your narrative.
...examining internal propaganda of an enemy is not about 'trust', it's about measuring how the Russian population and gov are reacting/planning.
And i'm 100% sure of Mediazona's estimate being wrong by 3 digit percent scale, take it or leave it.
I can believe the guy who made the estimate is sure of his work, but i'm absolutely not sure of his judgement, as naturally he is not a neutral judge of his own, presumably paid work.
So, why should we trust the proudly displayed Russian official data, but not the indirect Russian official data that was looking much worse and was made non-public swiftly?
So internal propaganda about how they're winning: bullshit (they spread this kind of propaganda, too)
Internal propaganda about how they want to attack other countries: not bullshit
So in other words, believe the propaganda that fits your narrative and dismiss the rest.
History Learner
Well-known member
That you're sure of a lot things that are false is well known, and this one of those cases. However, you made a claim about what Mediazona says, not what you believe, and we both know you're trying to shift the topic now because you lied. It's also why you're acting so defensive and refused to answer me when I asked you to explain what 95% confidence in their estimate means.
Because Mediazona doesn't use Russian official data displayed, but the estimate you cited was directly from their Labor Ministry. Mediazona uses non-official onlines sources that announce deaths (Families posting on Facebook, for example) and literally goes to cemeteries to count graves.
So, you're right on the quality of the data sources provided, the problem is yours is the one that fits the criteria of dismissal established by you, not Mediazona. I'm glad to see you remain as bad at this as you were the last time we tangled.
And i made claim and i linked you where exactly on mediazona's site that statement is.
Go argue with them.
I don't care why they are so self-confident, i can have my theories on that which you would disagree anyway, their self-confidence is not inspiring my confidence in them though, somehow.
I don't care about what Mediazona thinks and i don't use their sources.
Yes, and that's for obvious reasons an incredibly inaccurate methodology, as the percentage of families of dead soldiers posting about it on the internet is definitely way below 100%, and can vary with government intervention, while even in the freest and most social media exhibitionist societies in the world, which Russia is not one of, many people keep their private lives private.
Yes, i trust my criteria more than Mediazona's, sue me.
No, it's called not taking either alone at face value, but measuring how the propaganda matches the actions.
The Ru propaganda about 'winning' is rather easy to refute from outside sources, and from their own actions. The Russians would not have pulled their fleet out of Sevastopol if Russia was winning, given that naval base is why the 'annexed' Crimea in 2014. Nor would the Russians have ever retreated from Kharkiv and Kherson if they were 'winning'. And Russia would certainly not have blow the Nova Kahkovka dam if they felt they were winning, since it was what allowed water to be sent to Crimea.
The Ru propaganda about 'Ukraine is the first step' is easy to measure in what they are doing to indoctrinate the youth of Russia into a martial mindset and preparing elementary school kids for the 'next war'.
The Ru internal propaganda about 'winning' is cope for how their vaunted Red Army legacy was destroyed by their actions in the '3 day operation'. Ru internal propaganda about how they have to prepare the next gen for the next war and their 'claims' on 'historical Russian territory' in the Baltics is the Kremlin trying to get it's next generation of mobiks ready for a try on the Baltics.
History Learner
Well-known member
They said they are 95% confident the real casualty figure is between 40,000 and 55,000 which I agree with. Therefore, I have no reason to argue with them, especially given you are the one lying.
That's okay Marduk, because we've already established you have a tendency to lie and believe in fantasies, that's why none of us take you serious and discard your opinions.
Given you're detached from reality, this is no surprise and is nothing new to anybody reading this. It's also why we know you avoided directly addressing the arguments and moved thereafter to switch the topic; you don't fool anybody now because we know your playbook.
The simple reality is that Ukrainian losses increased by 3x this year, while Russian losses have steadily declined since February. This spells long term doom for the Ukrainian war effort.
It's all bullshit bacle.
The stuff about them winning, while they are in a stalemate is bullshit.
The stuff about their new wars when their 3 day war has turned into a 2 year bloodbath is also bullshit. At least when it comes to NATO.
No it is not; some is bullshit, some is signaling/morale work for the Russian population, some is for the gullible fools in the west who actual think Russia would ever keep it's word on a 'deal' (Rand Paul, Trump, Tucker Carlson), and some for their own armed forces pride.
You may think that, but that is not what the people in Russia seem to think, and are acting on.
They are putting pictures/bios of dead mobiks on school desks, so the kids have the face of a 'Russian Hero' who died in Ukraine staring at them all year in school, and are creating 'youth groups' ala the Hitler Youth in Putin's cult of personality.
You don't really get how the Russians are viewing this war, and are so wound up in your isolationist views that you don't understand the mindset of an imperial power who wants their empire back, by hook or by crook.
This is one of the big issues here in the west; people keep thinking Russians have the same thought processes and value structures as westerners, when they don't, and only pretend to for PR games.
Yeah, they can be 100% self-confident for all i care.
By that logic, i'm not merely 95% confident in the real casualty figure being well over 250k, but 100% confident in fact.
Trust me bro. My self confidence is higher than mediazona's.
I would say we have already established that you come here to bait and be inflammatory for shits and giggles, but that would be a lie, because "we" didn't do that, you have admitted it yourself.
Thanks for conveniently proving that you didn't change after the ban you received back then.
Read above.
Sorry, i couldn't care less about your stubborn propaganda/demoralization attempts, you have negative credibility in this matter, which means the harder you doom for Ukraine, the more distant from reality it has to be, and the more desperate the situation of RuAF is.
yes because they are being fed propaganda for the specific purpose of getting them to support Russia and their actions. Of course it's signaling and morale work. That's what propaganda is.
you're not proving me wrong by demonstrating that they are using propaganda to get people to support them. What the fuck do you think is the purpose of propaganda, bacle?
but they're in a stalemate with a backwater shithole. They pose next to no threat to the might of NATO.
No, actually. I don't think they think like we do at all which is why I am convinced that they aren't backing out of this conflict with nothing, and they're certainly not turning on Putin. They're in this until they get something out of it.
But they're going to think twice before their next "3 day operation," because they know the west will spend two years making it hell, and if it's against NATO they're getting roflstomped and they know it now.
History Learner
Well-known member
As I said, we know you're detached from reality and lie, so that's why I discard your opinion.
You're the one that responded to me in the first place, perhaps you should learn better self control? I know it's annoying to you when I prove you're lying, but getting all defensive and heated like you do is rather indicative of emotional instability within yourself.
If you couldn't care less, why do you always reply? The truth is you know I'm right, and that's why you're so upset right now. You should work on yourself instead of lying, as we've already established you've done here. Thank you for proving I'm still the better debater, however.
And so do i with yours.
I was posting in this thread before you defaced it with your musings, so suffer the public shaming you earned and learn self-control yourself to not post them here if you don't want it.
You prove that you are still doing the things you got previous bans for.
Your implications of emotional instability are just further evidence of this.
Wouldn't you like to know.
No, i'm upset about people shitting up a thread i partake in with trolling.
We will see who will need to work on himself here.
No threat 'now', in our minds; give them a chunk of Ukraine to keep and years to rearms, and that can change.
You keep taking a very short term view of this conflict and things around it.
Look at how the Turks held up NATO membership for Finland and Sweden, over mostly supporting some Kurd factions, and how Hungary/Orban are still rather buddy-buddy with Russia to the point of also trying to hold up NATO membership process.
There is no guarantee NATO would be united, particularly if Ukraine is forced to cede lands, because we will have shown that the west is willing to appease Russia to halt a conflict and there are parts of Europe that would be fine letting the Russians take the Baltics (looking at Germany, Hungary and Turkey mostly) so long as they have access to the Russian domestic market for their goods and so they can buy from Russia without getting hit with sanctions.
The only way to prevent the next war is to make Russia accept defeat in Ukraine and get nothing for their losses, otherwise Russia will feel they can get away with shit like this again.
History Learner
Well-known member
Then why reply at all?
But there's no shame in proving you lied, and I like posting here to show this so I can correct your errors. Why are you so heated?
Actually, it's in reference to what you were talking about in December; you brought up your emotional instability in a different conversation. As I said then, and now, you should work on that because you get unreasonably upset when proven wrong.
Yes, hence why I asked you why you did that. That's what we call a question, Marduk, and I would be happy to explain what that is if you're unaware? I know your English isn't very good, after all.
We already have, I proved you lied. Do I need to re-quote the post?
Yes, everyone knows you do the shitting up you do on the forum shamelessly, as you have openly admitted before.
Errors?
So, what's the definition of air superiority?
No, that's not something i brought up, that's something you did, while shitting up the place before.
Care to explain to everyone present why were you banned?
You will see. In time.
You proved that you are a malicious actor who twists words and ignores inconvenient evidence, all in process of accusing other people of being wrong or lying, for your anti-western agenda pushing sake.
You proved yourself a lowly creature, that's the only thing you are ever capable of proving, so don't even bother.