Russia(gate/bot) Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

[AmosTrask]

That attack in Moscow is more suspicious than I thought. There is a massive police station 50 meters away from the concert hall, just across the central concourse in the same mall building. There were police in the mall they all left the moment the shooting started. All the CCTV mysteriously stopped working in the concert hall half of the mall along with the airport style xray and metal detectors that day. They took an hour to get there. . . This was an inside job using a real Daesh cell to do the FSB's dirty work. I bet you those four "arrested" were FSB. Three of the men the FSB announced as suspected terrorist accomplices came forward in Tajikistan with proof and witnesses that they were hundreds of miles away. They were arrested anyway.



DAESH just backed their claim by posting first person camera footage of the attack.

 

[mrttao]

That attack in Moscow is more suspicious than I thought. There is a massive police station 50 meters away from the concert hall, just across the central concourse in the same mall building. There were police in the mall they all left the moment the shooting started. All the CCTV mysteriously stopped working in the concert hall half of the mall along with the airport style xray and metal detectors that day. They took an hour to get there. . . This was an inside job using a real Daesh cell to do the FSB's dirty work. I bet you those four "arrested" were FSB. Three of the men the FSB announced as suspected terrorist accomplices came forward in Tajikistan with proof and witnesses that they were hundreds of miles away. They were arrested anyway.



Dash just backed their claim by posting first person camera footage of the attack.

It is also plausible that, after being warned by USA about an imminent muslim terrorist attack, they just let it happen as a cassus belli to do something about their muslim populace.

Or they were just complacent. And the police running away is just cowardice. Police job is to abuse citizens and collect bribes, not to protect people from terrorists.

Need some more time for things to unfold.

 

[AmosTrask]

The oil refinery in Samara, Russia is completely out of action from UA drone hits.

That brings the damage to 32% of Russian oil industry shut down. Beautiful.

 

[Zachowon]

It seems they were complacent more then anything. Marduk posted somewhere they the FSB have been focusing on Ukraine over ISIS

 

[Cherico]

It seems they were complacent more then anything. Marduk posted somewhere they the FSB have been focusing on Ukraine over ISIS

You know right now, Putin could come out and end the 'special' operation, say that he has no choice but to focus on protecting russian citizens from more pressing concerns. He could save face take the troops out of Ukraine and focus on Isis and chances are people would let the russians limp out.

They might have to give up Chrimea but they could save some face doing it this way.

Or they could decide to fight two wars at the same time or just let Isis get away with it.....

 

[mrttao]

You know right now, Putin could come out and end the 'special' operation, say that he has no choice but to focus on protecting russian citizens from more pressing concerns. He could save face take the troops out of Ukraine and focus on Isis and chances are people would let the russians limp out.

No, he couldn't.
1. Ukraine literally said there will never be any negotiations nor any ceasefire.
2. it would make him look weak and he would probably end up with his death
3. he has whipped his people up to be quite gung ho about this war. most approve.

 

[Bacle]

You know right now, Putin could come out and end the 'special' operation, say that he has no choice but to focus on protecting russian citizens from more pressing concerns. He could save face take the troops out of Ukraine and focus on Isis and chances are people would let the russians limp out.

They might have to give up Chrimea but they could save some face doing it this way.

Or they could decide to fight two wars at the same time or just let Isis get away with it.....

Ukraine would never go for that, and neither would most of Ukraine's allies.

Europe will not allow Putin a win in Ukraine, even if it means French and Polish NATO troops moving into Ukraine to take up some defensive duties while Ukrainians focus on reclaiming their land.

Also, Crimea means a hell of a lot less when the canal to it that supplies drinking water was removed from operation by the Russians blowing that dam, the Kerch bridge is a small and known choke point that has already been hit multiple times, the Black Sea Fleet is losing most of it's surface combatants and numbers that made Crimea so important as a naval base to begin with, and sabotage groups/SF raids have been slowing reducing the amount of important bits the Russians are trying to keep in Crimea.

No, Putin will not get Crimea, or any of the lands he's tried to steal, in any outcome, not even trying to play off a 'shift' of troops to go after ISIS again.

There is no deal to be made with Russia and Putin except their complete withdrawal from Ukraine as a starting point for sanctions relief, and Putin being put on trial in the Hague, if the Russian people want to ever be allowed to be part of the international community again.

 

[Vyor]

>doesn't read the post fully
>argues for things in the post while thinking he's arguing against
>"Why does no one like arguing with me!"

 

[Bacle]

>doesn't read the post fully
>argues for things in the post while thinking he's arguing against
>"Why does no one like arguing with me!"

It read like he was arguing Ukraine would still have to give up Crimea to get Putin to focus on ISIS, not forcing Russia to give up on Crimea to focus on ISIS.

On second read, it also still left the door open to the Russians keeping the Donbass, and didn't end up with Putin in the Hague, and sanctions won't stop till Putin is out of power, not simply redeploying troops to Syria or elsewhere to fight ISIS.

Russian's won't get to try to 'limp away' with Putin still in the leadership position and think they will get sanctions relief, or that Ukraine will stop attempting to get it's kidnapped citizens back and restitution for Russian war crimes.

The idea of allowing Russia to use this as a way to 'save face' by 'redeploying to a new threat' allows Putin to stay in leadership, to get away with his war crimes and such, and to still have room to try again in Ukraine when ISIS is no longer his main focus.

It also won't work with the Russians, who are already trying to pin this on Ukraine/saying Ukraine was going to provide asylum/safe harbor for the attackers.

 

[strunkenwhite]

Hypothetically, if Putin offered Ukraine a total withdrawal including from Donbas and Crimea, of course Ukraine would happily accept. But it is equally obvious that this would never happen, at least not for a reason as relatively petty as this.

 

[Cherico]

It read like he was arguing Ukraine would still have to give up Crimea to get Putin to focus on ISIS, not forcing Russia to give up on Crimea to focus on ISIS.

On second read, it also still left the door open to the Russians keeping the Donbass, and didn't end up with Putin in the Hague, and sanctions won't stop till Putin is out of power, not simply redeploying troops to Syria or elsewhere to fight ISIS.

Russian's won't get to try to 'limp away' with Putin still in the leadership position and think they will get sanctions relief, or that Ukraine will stop attempting to get it's kidnapped citizens back and restitution for Russian war crimes.

The idea of allowing Russia to use this as a way to 'save face' by 'redeploying to a new threat' allows Putin to stay in leadership, to get away with his war crimes and such, and to still have room to try again in Ukraine when ISIS is no longer his main focus.

It also won't work with the Russians, who are already trying to pin this on Ukraine/saying Ukraine was going to provide asylum/safe harbor for the attackers.

no mabye I miswrote that but I said Putin and russia would have to give up Chrimea and the Donbass and get their troops out of ukraine which I think we both agree Ukraine would agree to as terms of peace.

 

[AmosTrask]

no mabye I miswrote that but I said Putin and russia would have to give up Chrimea and the Donbass and get their troops out of ukraine which I think we both agree Ukraine would agree to as terms of peace.

They'd agree if you add surrendering the units responsible for the massacres into Ukrainian custody and the return of two million Ukrainians forcibly relocated. Especially the 800,000 children of those two million separated from family and "adopted" into "Good Russian Homes." Forbidden to speak or read Ukrainian and being brainwashed into good "Little Russians" second class citizens, not full Russians of course, because you can only be born as Big Russians not assimilated into the group.

 

[Bacle]

no mabye I miswrote that but I said Putin and russia would have to give up Chrimea and the Donbass and get their troops out of ukraine which I think we both agree Ukraine would agree to as terms of peace.

And I may have misread what you meant.

I think it would be a starting point for Ukraine, a good one no doubt. Putin and other's facing war crime trials is another of the conditions I've seen placed on sanctions relief for Russia, and said sanction relief seems to be one of the things Russia wants from the West most, particularly full access back into the SWIFT system.

And that still leaves the issue of all the kidnapped UA kids and people that Russia has taken at Putin's orders.

 

[Cherico]

And I may have misread what you meant.

I think it would be a starting point for Ukraine, a good one no doubt. Putin and other's facing war crime trials is another of the conditions I've seen placed on sanctions relief for Russia, and said sanction relief seems to be one of the things Russia wants from the West most, particularly full access back into the SWIFT system.

And that still leaves the issue of all the kidnapped UA kids and people that Russia has taken at Putin's orders.

Their not going to get Putin and others for war crimes unless the war goes into Russia other wise you just dont have the leverage to make that happen. They could get their children and stolen people back...who will most likely have some pretty horrible stories about rape and tourture.

 

[Bacle]

Their not going to get Putin and others for war crimes unless the war goes into Russia other wise you just dont have the leverage to make that happen. They could get their children and stolen people back...who will most likely have some pretty horrible stories about rape and tourture.

Why do you think the Free Russian Forces have been making such a mess around Belgorod?

Why do you think the UA forces have been hitting Rostov-on-Don with drones regularly?

This war is going back over Russia's border already, including on the ground, because UA found enough sane Russians in the surrenders/volunteers of one stripe or another to form actual military units bent on removing 'imperial Russian' forces from the Belgorod region.

Also, Macron seems rather more willing to breach the red lines of Putin's by pushing having NATO troops enter Ukraine for defensive roles. I don't think Putin will end up in the Hague, more likely killed in a palace coup when things get bad enough, but so long as Putin is breathing there is little chance of getting Russia to fully back-off and give back the kidnapped UA population.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Why do you think the Free Russian Forces have been making such a mess around Belgorod?

Why do you think the UA forces have been hitting Rostov-on-Don with drones regularly?

This war is going back over Russia's border already, including on the ground, because UA found enough sane Russians in the surrenders/volunteers of one stripe or another to form actual military units bent on removing 'imperial Russian' forces from the Belgorod region.

Also, Macron seems rather more willing to breach the red lines of Putin's by pushing having NATO troops enter Ukraine for defensive roles. I don't think Putin will end up in the Hague, more likely killed in a palace coup when things get bad enough, but so long as Putin is breathing there is little chance of getting Russia to fully back-off and give back the kidnapped UA population.

The "free Russian forces" lost what..a full brigade in Belgorod?

 

[Marduk]

Their not going to get Putin and others for war crimes unless the war goes into Russia other wise you just dont have the leverage to make that happen. They could get their children and stolen people back...who will most likely have some pretty horrible stories about rape and tourture.

Or there is a new government and it is looking for an excuse to get rid of them anyway, then why not get some good boy points in the West while at it.

 

[Cherico]

Or there is a new government and it is looking for an excuse to get rid of them anyway, then why not get some good boy points in the West while at it.

Putin purged pretty much any one who would be able to realistically run things. Once he's dead the country most likely goes into civil war.

If that happens China will most likely either create a siberian puppet state or just out right seize the region entirely.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

The "free Russian forces" lost what..a full brigade in Belgorod?

NO idea. I've seen 0 credible reporting about that engagement.

 

[Zachowon]

No evidence they lost a full brigade.
A brigade is more then a few tanks and IFVs/APCs.