Future War with (Red) China Hypotheticals/Theorycrafting

D

Deleted member

Guest
We would not be able to move anything massive over there without getting noticed.

Containerization. We can move anything which can fit in a standard shipping container in perfect secrecy, as long as we're using commercial shipping containers on commercial ships. That leaves us with very large items -- like the actual transporter-launchers -- that we have to find a way to conceal. The best way to do that would be to fabricate removable dummy sections which transform them into heavy construction equipment, and then offload them from auto carrier ships as part of the normal commercial stream. They could then have the concealing sections removed and be readied for service by American troops who arrived under tourist visas in plainclothes and collected their arms and equipment from containers moved to "construction sites" around Taiwan.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Containerization. We can move anything which can fit in a standard shipping container in perfect secrecy, as long as we're using commercial shipping containers on commercial ships. That leaves us with very large items -- like the actual transporter-launchers -- that we have to find a way to conceal. The best way to do that would be to fabricate removable dummy sections which transform them into heavy construction equipment, and then offload them from auto carrier ships as part of the normal commercial stream. They could then have the concealing sections removed and be readied for service by American troops who arrived under tourist visas in plainclothes and collected their arms and equipment from containers moved to "construction sites" around Taiwan.
Taiwan most liekly also has a lot of Chinese spies, so there is that as an issue. I see what you are getting at but it is still a lot of issues we have to deal with;.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
Within certain parameters that is. There is an increasing percentage of kids thatg are medically hopeless by 18.
 

Es Arcanum

Princeps Terra
Founder
You can't separate trade and economics from military matters though. Its a huge reason why China is potentially a bigger threat than the USSR ever was. The USSR piggybacked on its military dominance at the end of WWII and the fact that the Germans had cleared the board of any rivals to the west. It then traded that initial dominance (and subsequent control over Eastern Europe) into four decades of dick waving at the West (which was backed by the unassailable by conventional means USA) but it did so at an enormous cost with at one point I think something like 20% or so of their GNP going to the military. This was unsustainable in the long run and hamstrung their economy in addition to the fact that they were still trying to be communist. So the whole thing came crashing down when a 3rd world war never eventuated. Their retarded economic clout limited their ability to project power overseas, find allies and ironically, maintain their military edge and stopped them from being a genuine threat to the West short of a shooting war, the West could always ramp up its military in any case to meet them.

China is a very different beast. After their civil war they had virtually unopposed control of all their territories with no industrialised foreign aggressors willing or able to threaten them so their military could be simple and cheap and they didn't need to dominate neighbouring regions. So they started off without a legacy of sustaining a fuck huge modern military hanging around their necks guiding them in one direction.

With the lesson of the USSR hanging around post-1991 they've cheerfully thrown away any aspects of communism that got in the way of economic progress and kept any that don't interfere too much but that help them maintain internal control. They've taken advantage of the safespace the WTO entry conditions carved out for them to develop economically with less limitations and translated that into using their market clout and the greed/fear of foreign corporations and governments to flex influence overseas in a way the USSR never could except through its infiltration of tertiary education systems (the Chinese are doing that too now). Do something the CCP doesn't like? "oh there's some problems with your 'product x' you can't sell it here" and watch as corporate types and re-election desperate Western politicians with their eyes on jobs and revenues fall over themselves to please.

They've managed to turn their initial safespace and now market power (under an internal authoritarian regime) into a sort of economic invulnerability that allows them to do whatever the fuck they want without consequences. Stuff that would have other countries hauled before the WTO and forced by economic necessity to retract by groups of likeminded trading partners. But China can just steal technology, raise bullshit trade barriers and offer direct government support in propping up its own companies and even attacking rival foreign ones. Their resultant wealth is currently being turned into an advanced military designed not to necessarily defeat the USA (it would be nukes before that was a risk) but to defeat the neighbouring countries.

Short of WW3 (or a collapse of CCP authority enabling it) the USA is not going to land troops in China and vice versa is true. So any military conflict is going to be fought over and around the neighbouring countries and sea regions. Without these the USA would find it incredibly difficult to contain Chinese international influence as the removal of neighbouring threats would allow the Chinese to focus on maritime projection power. This military power would be allied with China's economic coercion and influence and propped up by Soviet style infiltration of tertiary education and Chinas new forays into social media (tiktok being a prominent example).

In short the Chinese will use military threats and economic coercion to break away Americas allies in the Asia Pacific and eliminate them as a military threat and then break any chains that hold them back from being a global economic hegemon or at least a co-hegemon. A hegemon run by an authoritarian regime that can bully foreign markets into compliance with no peer rival but the USA and brimng wealth into China despite any structural problems it may have. Its a matter of survival for the Chinese Communist Party because the long easy boom as they caught up with the West is over and an economic recession or collapse directly threatens their raison d'etre for remaining in power (now that Communist ideology isn't viable) and THAT is the one biggest thing that the USA can do to them. It can use its global maritime reach and influence to simply cut off the trade routes to China if it wanted to break the rules and do so. Or if it came to a shooting war.

Its the sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the CCP. The Chinese need to become immune to blockade and need to break the USA's dominance of the world economy and replace it at least with a co-dominance. An authoritarian China probably believes it could better leverage that position than a free (and fairly benign) USA has. But to accomplish this China first has to avoid a war with the USA until it can neutralise its neighbours, preferably into inaction whilst it pursues its economic influence.

-------------------------------------------------------

The best thing the USA can do (avoiding war but still defeating China) is to contain them (economically AND militarily) with an alliance system. Which is kind of what the USA has been doing but something even more solid would be even better. Its just kind of difficult for individual countries to do without the Chinese economic coercion biting, only the USA and in some ways the EU (but not really) are strong enough to get into a pissing match with the Chinese without taking heavy finanacial losses. It needs an already existing framework OR a united effort

For all the attacks on Obamas Trans-Pacific Partnership efforts (it was led by the globalists afterall) it has the kernal of a good idea at its heart. A trans-Pacific or Asian free trade zone could be a significant carrot to allay any fears of Chinese retaliation for a parallel military alliance. It could help avoid the Chinese trying to break the group by targeting individual members who could act secure in the knowledge that Chinese economic retaliation against them would be responded to by the whole group.

Trump signing free trade deals with Japan and South Korea helps to tie them even more militarily to the USA but each still has to make any decision worrying about who else will be joining the bandwagon. South Korea has the Norks to worry about and Japan has a pacifist constitution to get over. These obstacles are less troublesome with the comfort of group action and common defence backing you up.

Basically I think a formalised Pacific Alliance with an accompanying economic component involving the USA, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and preferably Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Philipines, Cambodia and New Zealand to a lesser or greater extent would be ideal.
 
Last edited:

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
You can't separate trade and economics from military matters though. Its a huge reason why China is potentially a bigger threat than the USSR ever was. The USSR piggybacked on its military dominance at the end of WWII and the fact that the Germans had cleared the board of any rivals to the west. It then traded that initial dominance (and subsequent control over Eastern Europe) into four decades of dick waving at the West (which was backed by the unassailable by conventional means USA) but it did so at an enormous cost with at one point I think something like 20% or so of their GNP going to the military. This was unsustainable in the long run and hamstrung their economy in addition to the fact that they were still trying to be communist. So the whole thing came crashing down when a 3rd world war never eventuated. Their retarded economic clout limited their ability to project power overseas, find allies and ironically, maintain their military edge and stopped them from being a genuine threat to the West short of a shooting war, the West could always ramp up its military in any case to meet them.

China is a very different beast. After their civil war they had virtually unopposed control of all their territories with no industrialised foreign aggressors willing or able to threaten them so their military could be simple and cheap and they didn't need to dominate neighbouring regions. So they started off without a legacy of sustaining a fuck huge modern military hanging around their necks guiding them in one direction.

With the lesson of the USSR hanging around post-1991 they've cheerfully thrown away any aspects of communism that got in the way of economic progress and kept any that don't interfere too much but that help them maintain internal control. They've taken advantage of the safespace the WTO entry conditions carved out for them to develop economically with less limitations and translated that into using their market clout and the greed/fear of foreign corporations and governments to flex influence overseas in a way the USSR never could except through its infiltration of tertiary education systems (the Chinese are doing that too now). Do something the CCP doesn't like? "oh there's some problems with your 'product x' you can't sell it here" and watch as corporate types and re-election desperate Western politicians with their eyes on jobs and revenues fall over themselves to please.

They've managed to turn their initial safespace and now market power (under an internal authoritarian regime) into a sort of economic invulnerability that allows them to do whatever the fuck they want without consequences. Stuff that would have other countries hauled before the WTO and forced by economic necessity to retract by groups of likeminded trading partners. But China can just steal technology, raise bullshit trade barriers and offer direct government support in propping up its own companies and even attacking rival foreign ones. Their resultant wealth is currently being turned into an advanced military designed not to necessarily defeat the USA (it would be nukes before that was a risk) but to defeat the neighbouring countries.

Short of WW3 (or a collapse of CCP authority enabling it) the USA is not going to land troops in China and vice versa is true. So any military conflict is going to be fought over and around the neighbouring countries and sea regions. Without these the USA would find it incredibly difficult to contain Chinese international influence as the removal of neighbouring threats would allow the Chinese to focus on maritime projection power. This military power would be allied with China's economic coercion and influence and propped up by Soviet style infiltration of tertiary education and Chinas new forays into social media (tiktok being a prominent example).

In short the Chinese will use military threats and economic coercion to break away Americas allies in the Asia Pacific and eliminate them as a military threat and then break any chains that hold them back from being a global economic hegemon or at least a co-hegemon. A hegemon run by an authoritarian regime that can bully foreign markets into compliance with no peer rival but the USA and brimng wealth into China despite any structural problems it may have. Its a matter of survival for the Chinese Communist Party because the long easy boom as they caught up with the West is over and an economic recession or collapse directly threatens their raison d'etre for remaining in power (now that Communist ideology isn't viable) and THAT is the one biggest thing that the USA can do to them. It can use its global maritime reach and influence to simply cut off the trade routes to China if it wanted to break the rules and do so. Or if it came to a shooting war.

Its the sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the CCP. The Chinese need to become immune to blockade and need to break the USA's dominance of the world economy and replace it at least with a co-dominance. An authoritarian China probably believes it could better leverage that position than a free (and fairly benign) USA has. But to accomplish this China first has to avoid a war with the USA until it can neutralise its neighbours, preferably into inaction whilst it pursues its economic influence.

-------------------------------------------------------

The best thing the USA can do (avoiding war but still defeating China) is to contain them (economically AND militarily) with an alliance system. Which is kind of what the USA has been doing but something even more solid would be even better. Its just kind of difficult for individual countries to do without the Chinese economic coercion biting, only the USA and in some ways the EU (but not really) are strong enough to get into a pissing match with the Chinese without taking heavy finanacial losses. It needs an already existing framework OR a united effort

For all the attacks on Obamas Trans-Pacific Partnership efforts (it was led by the globalists afterall) it has the kernal of a good idea at its heart. A trans-Pacific or Asian free trade zone could be a significant carrot to allay any fears of Chinese retaliation for a parallel military alliance. It could help avoid the Chinese trying to break the group by targeting individual members who could act secure in the knowledge that Chinese economic retaliation against them would be responded to by the whole group.

Trump signing free trade deals with Japan and South Korea helps to tie them even more militarily to the USA but each still has to make any decision worrying about who else will be joining the bandwagon. South Korea has the Norks to worry about and Japan has a pacifist constitution to get over. These obstacles are less troublesome with the comfort of group action and common defence backing you up.

Basically I think a formalised Pacific Alliance with an accompanying economic component involving the USA, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and preferably Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Philipines, Cambodia and New Zealand to a lesser or greater extent would be ideal.
Austrailia is already close with the US as are Japan, SK and Taiwan. The rest will join if need be to the USA, though Vietnam may be asking sooner or later with tensions rising there. India is also being helpful with thier border to the south of CHina.
Oh and NZ is a major ally as well
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
The problem with Australia is that while it is politicaly and militarily tied to USA, it is getting economically subjugated by China, which is buying up or long term leasing almost entire sectors of economy.
 
Last edited:

Es Arcanum

Princeps Terra
Founder
I think both sides of Australian Federal politics have more than woken up to the threat posed by China's economic power since we've been their favourite target recently. The Australian PM announced just last week that some nation has been targeting us with massive cyber attacks for months (gee I wonder who?). Anti-Chinese measures is a vote winner in Australia atm. New Zealand is not big enough economically and definitely not militarily to matter too much. I think they'd follow Australia's lead in such matters.

The real ones (aside from the first ones I mentioned) to get on board are the ones in bold, their economies, geographical position and respectable if not large military capabilties make them force multipliers for any diplomatic and economic power games backed by military capability in the background.

And I missed out on India... thats something to consider but I'm not too sure on that one.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
I think both sides of Australian Federal politics have more than woken up to the threat posed by China's economic power since we've been their favourite target recently. The Australian PM announced just last week that some nation has been targeting us with massive cyber attacks for months (gee I wonder who?). Anti-Chinese measures is a vote winner in Australia atm. New Zealand is not big enough economically and definitely not militarily to matter too much. I think they'd follow Australia's lead in such matters.

The real ones (aside from the first ones I mentioned) to get on board are the ones in bold, their economies, geographical position and respectable if not large military capabilties make them force multipliers for any diplomatic and economic power games backed by military capability in the background.

And I missed out on India... thats something to consider but I'm not too sure on that one.
They will always hate CHina, so we can be sure they would never give money or aid to China
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Any guesses on Nepal? This here is saying they're not taking too well to current leadership.

 

Es Arcanum

Princeps Terra
Founder
Any guesses on Nepal? This here is saying they're not taking too well to current leadership.



You know if the Chinese government didn't act like such a massive arsehole to its neighbours and everybody else they'd probably find people would like them a bit more.

A little something I just cooked up:

466ebg.jpg

😁
 

Aaron Fox

Well-known member
Here's the thing, China absolutely fucking needs trade to survive right now, they're an export economy (i.e. exports are king), they don't have the required resources and food production to feed their population, and their military is -while growing- not really a problem. It's modernizing, yes, but only as fast as the outsourced companies are paying their taxes, either directly or indirectly. Since China's manpower pricetag has risen sharply over the last two decades, those companies are moving back to their homelands and automating the shit out of their lines. The economic troubles and trade war hasn't done them any favors either because, as I said, they are an export economy.

Also, the Asian countries (at times) make the various feuds of Europe look like everyone singing kumbaya in comparison. For example, China -throughout the expansionist phases of its history- has tried to genocide Vietnam at least once -maybe twice- while seriously screwing everyone else one way or another. So, it becomes a question of who do you hate more: China or your neighbors? Thing is, China tends to be the more hated country of the lot and that is after taking into account Japan condensing centuries of colonial horrors into a few scant decades.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Here's the thing, China absolutely fucking needs trade to survive right now, they're an export economy (i.e. exports are king), they don't have the required resources and food production to feed their population, and their military is -while growing- not really a problem. It's modernizing, yes, but only as fast as the outsourced companies are paying their taxes, either directly or indirectly. Since China's manpower pricetag has risen sharply over the last two decades, those companies are moving back to their homelands and automating the shit out of their lines. The economic troubles and trade war hasn't done them any favors either because, as I said, they are an export economy.

Also, the Asian countries (at times) make the various feuds of Europe look like everyone singing kumbaya in comparison. For example, China -throughout the expansionist phases of its history- has tried to genocide Vietnam at least once -maybe twice- while seriously screwing everyone else one way or another. So, it becomes a question of who do you hate more: China or your neighbors? Thing is, China tends to be the more hated country of the lot and that is after taking into account Japan condensing centuries of colonial horrors into a few scant decades.
I will ask some Koreans this weekend, but I am almost 100 percent positive that the Korean military hate China more then they hate Japan. Even though Chinese people visit both countries a lot. Militarily they seem to not like either, especially with PVA invading Korea in the 50s. Japan is no longer massively hated by the rest of Asia as badly, thanks to Us intervention.

It is fun to see the developments of the world over here
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
I will ask some Koreans this weekend, but I am almost 100 percent positive that the Korean military hate China more then they hate Japan. Even though Chinese people visit both countries a lot. Militarily they seem to not like either, especially with PVA invading Korea in the 50s. Japan is no longer massively hated by the rest of Asia as badly, thanks to Us intervention.

It is fun to see the developments of the world over here
Doesn't surprise me. Times have changed to focus on another threat now that the old one has been dealt with.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top