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Future War with (Red) China Hypotheticals/Theorycrafting

Husky_Khan

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A natural outgrowth from some of the discussions here. This thread isn't so much for the discussing of real world politics in regards to current affairs like the Wuflu or trade policy or whatever, but the nerdiest outgrowth of such things, which is hypothetical near future war scenarios and how they'd shape up and turn out. For the moment let's assume all of these scenarios don't involve the use of nuclear weapons since a discussion like that would be rapidly redundant.

There are several main *flashpoints* when it comes to hypothetical wars with China

1. China vs. Taiwan in order to make its own China policy a literal reality

2. South China Sea/Spratley Island Confrontation

3. Widening North Korea/South Korea Conflict

4. China Attempting to Seize the Ryuku Islands from Japan

5. India-China Border Disputes or a Widening War Between India and Pakistan

As well as lesser conflicts such as those pertaining to the Paracel Islands, some sort of Russian-Japanese territorial dispute over the Kurils/Sakhalin, a Chinese-American Trade War going HOT, the activation of the Five Powers DefenCe Agreement, some sort of war sparked by instability in Myanmar etc.

Who wants to nerd out to comment on any of these potential scenarios specifically or in general?
 
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Husky_Khan

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Nerded it out for about an hour looking up things on Global Firepower, CIA Worldbook and Wikipedia... I think China's Nominal GDP and military budget outspends most everyone in their local area. Though the amount of manpower the others can bring to bear is rather impressive especially in reserves. Reserve personnel also includes paramilitaries.

GDP Nominal: 14.4 trillion
Military Budget: 237 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 1.9%
Military Aged Population: 753 million
Active Military Personnel: 2.2 million
Reserve Military Personnel: 1.17 million

GDP Nominal: 5.1 trillion
Military Budget: 49 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 0.9%
Military Aged Population: 53 million
Active Military Personnel: 247,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 70,000

GDP Nominal: 1.6 billion
Military Budget: 37 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 2.7%
Military Aged Population: 25 million
Active Military Personnel: 625,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 6.1 million

GDP Nominal: N/A
Military Budget: 1.6 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: N/A
Military Aged Population: 13 million
Active Military Personnel: 1.28 million
Reserve Military Personnel: 6.5 million

GDP Nominal: 586 billion
Military Budget: 10.5 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 1.8%
Military Aged Population: 12 million
Active Military Personnel: 163,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 1.668 million

GDP Nominal: 363 billion
Military Budget: 8.8 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 3.2%
Military Aged Population: 4 million
Active Military Personnel: 72,500
Reserve Military Personnel: 320,000

GDP Nominal: 1.1 trillion
Military Budget: 8 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 0.7%
Military Aged Population: 131 million
Active Military Personnel: 395,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 680,000

GDP Nominal: 1.38 trillion
Military Budget: 25 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 1.9%
Military Aged Population: 10,8 million
Active Military Personnel: 57,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 21,000

GDP Nominal: 529 billion
Military Budget: 7.1 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 1.4%
Military Aged Population: 35.5 million
Active Military Personnel: 361,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 339,000

GDP Nominal: 2.935 trillion
Military Budget: 56 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 2.4%
Military Aged Population: 622 billion
Active Military Personnel: 1.445 million
Reserve Military Personnel: 3.682 million

GDP Nominal: 284 billion
Military Budget: 11.5 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 10.8%
Military Aged Population: 96 million
Active Military Personnel: 654,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 282,000

GDP Nominal: 262 billion
Military Budget: 5.5 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 2.3%
Military Aged Population: 51 billion
Active Military Personnel: 482,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 5.04 million

GDP Nominal: 357 billion
Military Budget: 3.4 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 3%
Military Aged Population: 52 million
Active Military Personnel: 142,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 192,000

GDP Nominal: 66 billion
Military Budget: 2 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 3%
Military Aged Population: 30 million
Active Military Personnel: 406,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 107,000

GDP Nominal: 205 billion
Military Budget: 1.4 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 1.1%
Military Aged Population: 2 million
Active Military Personnel: 9,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 2,300

GDP Nominal: 365 billion
Military Budget: 4 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 1%
Military Aged Population: 12.5 million
Active Military Personnel: 157,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 64,000

GDP Nominal: 317 billion
Military Budget: 3.8 billion
Military Budget % of GDP: 1.3%
Military Aged Population: 63 million
Active Military Personnel: 113,000
Reserve Military Personnel: 319,000
 
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Husky_Khan

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Navy Stuff... China's modern fleet is pretty epic number wise.

6 Type 94 "Jin" SSBN (2000's)
1 Type 92 "Xia" SSBN (1980's)
9 Type 93 "Shang" SSN's (2000's)
3 Type 91 "Han" SSN's (1980's)
20 approx. "Yuan" class SSK's (2000's)
14 approx. "Song class SSK's (1990's)
12 approx. Kilo class SSK's (1980's)
2 Aircraft Carriers (2010's)
2 Type 55 Destroyers (2010's)
15 Type 52D Destroyers (2010's)
6 Type 52C Destroyers (2010's)
2 Type 51C Destroyers (2000's)
2 Type 52B Destroyers (2000's)
4 Sovremenny Class Destroyers (2000's)
1 Type 51B Destroyer (1990's)
2 Type 52 Class Destroyers (1990's)
30 Type 54A Frigates (2010's)
2 Type 54 Frigates (2000's)
8 Type 53H3 Frigates (2000's)
9 Type 53H1 Frigates (1980's)
6 Type 53H1G Frigates (1990's)
44 Type 56 Corvettes (2010's)
83 Type 22 Missile Boats (2000's)
15 Type 37 Missile Boats (1990's)
8 Type 37 Submarine Chasers (1990's)
16 Type 62 Gunboats (1980's)
36 Minesweepers
57 Cutters/Patrol Boats greater then 2000t (Coast Guard)
87 Cutters/Patrol Boats between then 200-2000t (Coast Guard)

11 Soryu-class SSK's (2010's tech)
9 Oyashio-class SSK's (1990's tech)
2 Izumo-class Helicopter Destroyers (2010's)
2 Hyuga-class Helicopter Destroyers (2010's)
1 Maya-class Guided Missile Destroyer (2010's)
2 Atago-class Guided Missile Destroyers (2000's)
4 Kongo-class Guided Missile Destroyers (1990's)
1 Hatakaze-class Guided Missile Destroyers (1980's)
2 Asashi-class ASW Destroyers (2010's)
5 Takanami-class General Purpose Destroyers (2000's)
4 Murasame-class General Purpose Destroyers (1990's)
8 Asagiri-class General Purpose Destroyers (1980's)
2 Hatsuyuki-class General Purpose Destroyers (1980's)
6 Abukuma-class General Purpose Destroyer Escorts (1980's)
6 Hayabusa-class Missile Patrol Boats (2000's)
12 Helicopter Patrol Boats (Coast Guard)
109 Patrol Boats between 200-2000t (Coast Guard)
24 Minesweepers

9 Sohn Wonyii class SSK's (2000's)
9 Chiang Bogo class SKK's (1990's)
3 Sejong the Great class Guided Missile Destroyers (2010's)
6 Chungmugong Yi Sun-sin class Multipurpose Destroyers (2000's)
3 Gwanggaeto the Great class Destroyers (1990's)
1 Daegu class Guided Missile Frigate (2010's)
6 Incheon class Guided Missile Frigate (2010's)
4 Ulsan class Frigates (1980's)
12 Pohang class Corvettes (1980's)
18 PKG class Missile Patrol Boats (2000's)
45 Chamsuri class Patrol Boats (1970's)
11 Minesweepers/Minelayers
27 Patrol Boats above 2000t (Coast Guard)
51 Patrol Boats between 200-2000t (Coast Guard)

1 Sinpo class Coastal Submarine (2010's)
41+ Sang-O class Coastal Submarine (1990's)
10 Yono class Miniature Submarines (1960's)
1 Whiskey class SSK (1950's)
2 Najin class Frigates (1970's)
2 Nampo class Missile Corvettes (2010's)
5 Sariwon class Corvettes (1970's)
6 Nongo class Missile Boats (2000's)
8 Osa I class Missile Boats (1960's)
4 Huangfeng class Missile Boats (1960's)
10 Komar class Missile Boats (1950's)
3 Shershen class Torpedo Boats (1960's)
142 Sin Hung class Torpedo Boats (1970's)
72 Small Torpedo Boats
19 Patrol Boats above 200t

2 Chien-Lung class SSK's (1980's)
2 Hai-Shih class SSK's (1950's)
4 Kee Lung class Guided Missile Destroyers (1980's -ex Kidd Class)
10 Cheng Kung class Guided Missile Frigates (1990's -ex OHP class)
6 Chi Yang class Frigates (1990's -ex Knox class)
6 Kang Ding class ASW Frigates (2000's La Fayette class)
31 Kuang Hua VI class Missile Boats (2000's)
1 Tuo Chiang class Missile Corvette (2010's)
12 Patrol Boats
11 Minesweepers
4 Patrol Boats above 2000t (Coast Guard)
27 Patrol Boats between 200t-2000t (Coast Guard)

2 Archer class SSK's (1980's, ex Swedish 2010's upgrades)
2 Challenger class SSK's (1960's, ex-Dutch Sjoormen 1990's upgrades)
6 Formidable class Multirole Stealth Frigates (2000's)
6 Victory class Missile Corvettes (1990's)
8 Independence class Littoral Patrol Vessels (2010's)
2 Fearless class Patrol Boats (1990's)
4 Bedok class Minesweepers (1990's)

3 Nagapasa class SSK's (2010's)
2 Type 209 "Cakra" class SSK's (2000's)
2 Martadinata class Guided Missile Frigates (2010's)
6 Ahmad Yani class General Purpose Frigates (1960's, ex-Van Speijk class 1980's upgrades)
6 Sigma class Corvettes (2010's)
3 Bung Tomo class Corvettes (2000's)
1 Fatahillah class Corvette (1970's)
14 Kapitan Pattimura class ASW Corvettes (1970's ex Parchim class, 1990's upgrades)
3 Mandau class Missile Boats (1970's)
8 Clurit class Missile boats (2010's)
4 Sampari class Missile Boats (2010's)
8 Missile Patrol Boats
4 Helicopter Patrol Boats
15 Patrol Boats above 200t

6 Collins class SSK's (2000's)
2 Canberra class Landing Helicopter Docks (2010's)
3 Hobart class Air Warfare Destroyers (2010's)
8 Anzac class Multirole Frigate (1990's)
13 Armidale class Patrol Boats (2000's)
10 Cape class Patrol Boats (2010's)
4 Huon class Minesweepers (1990's)




6 Kilo Class DE Submarines (1980's)
4 Gepard Class Frigates (2000's)
3 Petya Class Frigates for ASW (1960's)
2 Petya Class Frigates as Gunboats (1960's)
8 Molniya Class Corvettes (1990's)
6 Tarantul Class Corvettes (1970's)
2 Pohang Class Corvettes for ASW (1980's, transferred from South Korea)
9 Osa II class Missile Boats (1960's)
17 Patrol/Gun Boats
8 Minesweepers





 
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Zachowon

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It should be noted a war between China and any country in East Asia would heavily involve the US.
Mainly the bases in Japan, Guam, and South Korea as well as the navy fleet out in that area of the world.
None of these countries could single handily take on China, they are out numbered by the Navy and in every aspect, so big brother US will be the leading force in the Asian Alliance
 

Husky_Khan

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It should be noted a war between China and any country in East Asia would heavily involve the US.
Mainly the bases in Japan, Guam, and South Korea as well as the navy fleet out in that area of the world.
None of these countries could single handily take on China, they are out numbered by the Navy and in every aspect, so big brother US will be the leading force in the Asian Alliance
Yeah it's more hopeless by just showing the non-US and Russian forces in China. And easier to look up as the entire armed forces instead of particular basing. But yeah it's inevitable that the US Forces especially those in PACOM would be considered in some of the hypotheticals (along with the Russian forces),
 

Zachowon

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Yeah it's more hopeless by just showing the non-US and Russian forces in China. And easier to look up as the entire armed forces instead of particular basing.
The east Asian countries, Korea and Japan citizens arnt the most fond of US troops there, are happy to have them there for any possible actions by North Korea and by the Chinese
 

Floridaman

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Navy Stuff... China's modern fleet is pretty epic number wise.

6 Type 94 "Jin" SSBN (2000's)
1 Type 92 "Xia" SSBN (1980's)
9 Type 93 "Shang" SSN's (2000's)
3 Type 91 "Han" SSN's (1980's)
20 approx. "Yuan" class SSK's (2000's)
14 approx. "Song class SSK's (1990's)
12 approx. Kilo class SSK's (1980's)
2 Aircraft Carriers (2010's)
2 Type 55 Destroyers (2010's)
15 Type 52D Destroyers (2010's)
6 Type 52C Destroyers (2010's)
2 Type 51C Destroyers (2000's)
2 Type 52B Destroyers (2000's)
4 Sovremenny Class Destroyers (2000's)
1 Type 51B Destroyer (1990's)
2 Type 52 Class Destroyers (1990's)
30 Type 54A Frigates (2010's)
2 Type 54 Frigates (2000's)
8 Type 53H3 Frigates (2000's)
9 Type 53H1 Frigates (1980's)
6 Type 53H1G Frigates (1990's)
44 Type 56 Corvettes (2010's)
83 Type 22 Missile Boats (2000's)
15 Type 37 Missile Boats (1990's)
8 Type 37 Submarine Chasers (1990's)
16 Type 62 Gunboats (1980's)
36 Minesweepers
57 Cutters/Patrol Boats greater then 2000t (Coast Guard)
87 Cutters/Patrol Boats between then 200-2000t (Coast Guard)

11 Soryu-class SSK's (2010's tech)
9 Oyashio-class SSK's (1990's tech)
2 Izumo-class Helicopter Destroyers (2010's)
2 Hyuga-class Helicopter Destroyers (2010's)
1 Maya-class Guided Missile Destroyer (2010's)
2 Atago-class Guided Missile Destroyers (2000's)
4 Kongo-class Guided Missile Destroyers (1990's)
1 Hatakaze-class Guided Missile Destroyers (1980's)
2 Asashi-class ASW Destroyers (2010's)
5 Takanami-class General Purpose Destroyers (2000's)
4 Murasame-class General Purpose Destroyers (1990's)
8 Asagiri-class General Purpose Destroyers (1980's)
2 Hatsuyuki-class General Purpose Destroyers (1980's)
6 Abukuma-class General Purpose Destroyer Escorts (1980's)
6 Hayabusa-class Missile Patrol Boats (2000's)
12 Helicopter Patrol Boats (Coast Guard)
109 Patrol Boats between 200-2000t (Coast Guard)
24 Minesweepers

9 Sohn Wonyii class SSK's (2000's)
9 Chiang Bogo class SKK's (1990's)
3 Sejong the Great class Guided Missile Destroyers (2010's)
6 Chungmugong Yi Sun-sin class Multipurpose Destroyers (2000's)
3 Gwanggaeto the Great class Destroyers (1990's)
1 Daegu class Guided Missile Frigate (2010's)
6 Incheon class Guided Missile Frigate (2010's)
4 Ulsan class Frigates (1980's)
12 Pohang class Corvettes (1980's)
18 PKG class Missile Patrol Boats (2000's)
45 Chamsuri class Patrol Boats (1970's)
11 Minesweepers/Minelayers
27 Patrol Boats above 2000t (Coast Guard)
51 Patrol Boats between 200-2000t (Coast Guard)

1 Sinpo class Coastal Submarine (2010's)
41+ Sang-O class Coastal Submarine (1990's)
10 Yono class Miniature Submarines (1960's)
1 Whiskey class SSK (1950's)
2 Najin class Frigates (1970's)
2 Nampo class Missile Corvettes (2010's)
5 Sariwon class Corvettes (1970's)
6 Nongo class Missile Boats (2000's)
8 Osa I class Missile Boats (1960's)
4 Huangfeng class Missile Boats (1960's)
10 Komar class Missile Boats (1950's)
3 Shershen class Torpedo Boats (1960's)
142 Sin Hung class Torpedo Boats (1970's)
72 Small Torpedo Boats
19 Patrol Boats above 200t

2 Chien-Lung class SSK's (1980's)
2 Hai-Shih class SSK's (1950's)
4 Kee Lung class Guided Missile Destroyers (1980's -ex Kidd Class)
10 Cheng Kung class Guided Missile Frigates (1990's -ex OHP class)
6 Chi Yang class Frigates (1990's -ex Knox class)
6 Kang Ding class ASW Frigates (2000's La Fayette class)
31 Kuang Hua VI class Missile Boats (2000's)
1 Tuo Chiang class Missile Corvette (2010's)
12 Patrol Boats
11 Minesweepers
4 Patrol Boats above 2000t (Coast Guard)
27 Patrol Boats between 200t-2000t (Coast Guard)

2 Archer class SSK's (1980's, ex Swedish 2010's upgrades)
2 Challenger class SSK's (1960's, ex-Dutch Sjoormen 1990's upgrades)
6 Formidable class Multirole Stealth Frigates (2000's)
6 Victory class Missile Corvettes (1990's)
8 Independence class Littoral Patrol Vessels (2010's)
2 Fearless class Patrol Boats (1990's)
4 Bedok class Minesweepers (1990's)

3 Nagapasa class SSK's (2010's)
2 Type 209 "Cakra" class SSK's (2000's)
2 Martadinata class Guided Missile Frigates (2010's)
6 Ahmad Yani class General Purpose Frigates (1960's, ex-Van Speijk class 1980's upgrades)
6 Sigma class Corvettes (2010's)
3 Bung Tomo class Corvettes (2000's)
1 Fatahillah class Corvette (1970's)
14 Kapitan Pattimura class ASW Corvettes (1970's ex Parchim class, 1990's upgrades)
3 Mandau class Missile Boats (1970's)
8 Clurit class Missile boats (2010's)
4 Sampari class Missile Boats (2010's)
8 Missile Patrol Boats
4 Helicopter Patrol Boats
15 Patrol Boats above 200t

6 Collins class SSK's (2000's)
2 Canberra class Landing Helicopter Docks (2010's)
3 Hobart class Air Warfare Destroyers (2010's)
8 Anzac class Multirole Frigate (1990's)
13 Armidale class Patrol Boats (2000's)
10 Cape class Patrol Boats (2010's)
4 Huon class Minesweepers (1990's)




6 Kilo Class DE Submarines (1980's)
4 Gepard Class Frigates (2000's)
3 Petya Class Frigates for ASW (1960's)
2 Petya Class Frigates as Gunboats (1960's)
8 Molniya Class Corvettes (1990's)
6 Tarantul Class Corvettes (1970's)
2 Pohang Class Corvettes for ASW (1980's, transferred from South Korea)
9 Osa II class Missile Boats (1960's)
17 Patrol/Gun Boats
8 Minesweepers





Take a look at the operational range though, most of China’s fleet aren’t blue water capable, the only Asian fleet that is is that of Japan.
 

CarlManvers2019

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The east Asian countries, Korea and Japan citizens arnt the most fond of US troops there, are happy to have them there for any possible actions by North Korea and by the Chinese
Does Japan’s SDF have the ability to keep China from being too much of a problem?
 

Zachowon

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Does Japan’s SDF have the ability to keep China from being too much of a problem?
None of those countries have tha ability to stop China if China wamted to fight. They could stall but not win
 

CarlManvers2019

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None of those countries have tha ability to stop China if China wamted to fight. They could stall but not win
Stalling will have to do, I think the Japanese don’t have much for gun rights, so guerilla war, not so likely

Huh, maybe they’ll decide to take “revenge” on Japan for WWII
 

Zachowon

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Stalling will have to do, I think the Japanese don’t have much for gun rights, so guerilla war, not so likely

Huh, maybe they’ll decide to take “revenge” on Japan for WWII
Really China needs to take out the major powers to not have any local threats
 

CarlManvers2019

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Trust me I know~
Here’s one bright side, even if the Far Left(associated/allied/member)media of the world HATE you for fighting off China

You know you did the right and smart thing and there are people out there thanking you and grateful that someone stopped them, hell even the Chinese probably want to see the PRC humbled
 

Husky_Khan

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He's probably referring to how South Koreans have a tendency to being somewhat omnicidally antagonistic to everyone. They don't like China. Don't like Japan. Don't like America.

Maybe they think you Filipinos are pretty chill though... :unsure:
 

Zachowon

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Here’s one bright side, even if the Far Left(associated/allied/member)media of the world HATE you for fighting off China

You know you did the right and smart thing and there are people out there thanking you and grateful that someone stopped them, hell even the Chinese probably want to see the PRC humbled
There is a reason even though host nation people may not like us being there, they let us stay.
He's probably referring to how South Koreans have a tendency to being somewhat omnicidally antagonistic to everyone. They don't like China. Don't like Japan. Don't like America.

Maybe they think you Filipinos are pretty chill though... :unsure:
They dont mind americans. Most of the Younger generation loves us. but they do not always like us especially when we had the base in Seoul.
South koreans hate everyone yet also let everyone in. There are Chinese, Japanese, Fillipino, Thai and everything here (Tinder goes to show) they still hate nearly everyone in some way.
It is pretty funny here actually.
 
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We want to avoid war because it would go nuclear. But we need to confront the Chinese and push them back hard. My preferred strategy--which unfortunately would never happen--would be to play out the Cuban Missile Crisis come again, with the USA in the place of the USSR for this round. We should move troops and tactical nuclear weapons to Taiwan in secret. We will need much less in the way of preparation because truck mounted ground-launched cruise missiles do not require fixed launching sites, so the fact that detection technology has been improved will be mitigated by the fact that we will simply need to do less to have a fully operational force.

Likewise, unlike the Soviets in the early 60s, we have the larger fleet, which means a blockade is impossible. We could even intentionally fit our ships (I would suggest re-activating some older Perrys in the reserve fleet for this) with ram bumpers like the British did in the Cod Wars with Iceland, to provide a close escort for freighters running into Taiwan.

At the same time, we sign secret treaties with Taiwan recognising their independence, signing a military defensive alliance, and opening the country entirely to free trade (we're about to be cut off by China, so this won't hurt American industry at all, and will probably help it, and the ROC is about to be cut off by the entire world, so they really need it).

Once the nukes are on-line and we have a tripwire of American troops in place, we announce that we have recognised Taiwan's independence, will cover them with the American nuclear umbrella, and announce that we are surging the fleet to protect Taiwan's lines of communication.

The PRC's leadership is evil, but rational. They have much less leverage against this kind of move than JFK did against Cuba. It's just as rational as the Soviet move to put missiles in Cuba, and I think that unlike the Soviets, we can get away with it.
 

Zachowon

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We want to avoid war because it would go nuclear. But we need to confront the Chinese and push them back hard. My preferred strategy--which unfortunately would never happen--would be to play out the Cuban Missile Crisis come again, with the USA in the place of the USSR for this round. We should move troops and tactical nuclear weapons to Taiwan in secret. We will need much less in the way of preparation because truck mounted ground-launched cruise missiles do not require fixed launching sites, so the fact that detection technology has been improved will be mitigated by the fact that we will simply need to do less to have a fully operational force.

Likewise, unlike the Soviets in the early 60s, we have the larger fleet, which means a blockade is impossible. We could even intentionally fit our ships (I would suggest re-activating some older Perrys in the reserve fleet for this) with ram bumpers like the British did in the Cod Wars with Iceland, to provide a close escort for freighters running into Taiwan.

At the same time, we sign secret treaties with Taiwan recognising their independence, signing a military defensive alliance, and opening the country entirely to free trade (we're about to be cut off by China, so this won't hurt American industry at all, and will probably help it, and the ROC is about to be cut off by the entire world, so they really need it).

Once the nukes are on-line and we have a tripwire of American troops in place, we announce that we have recognised Taiwan's independence, will cover them with the American nuclear umbrella, and announce that we are surging the fleet to protect Taiwan's lines of communication.

The PRC's leadership is evil, but rational. They have much less leverage against this kind of move than JFK did against Cuba. It's just as rational as the Soviet move to put missiles in Cuba, and I think that unlike the Soviets, we can get away with it.
We would not be able to move anything massive over there without getting noticed.
 
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