Conflict Watch: Venezuela/Guyana Editions.

[Husky_Khan]

Venezuela still has to somehow manage an invasion through apparently underdeveloped jungle and wilderness.

Back when things were slightly less fucked up and there was a big ol border controversy with Colombia, Maduro threatened Colombia by stating he would deploy his armored military forces to the Colombian border. There were rumors that his military was wheezing with incompetence to try and do just that and when the US Diplomatic Cables leak occurred it publicized several US diplomatic cables talking about what a trickle of armored vehicles that the Venezuelan military was trying to bring (via a well developed road network mind you) to said Colombian border.

Granted this was back in 2010. Maybe Maduro changed things for the better and the Venezuelan military actually improved in competency. From an Economist article back during that crisis it was said "Officers or former officers run 11 of the 32 ministries; 11 of the 23 state governors are retired officers. Mr Maduro has been a prolific producer of generals. On one day last year he promoted 195 officers to that rank, bringing their number to more than 2,000. The United States somehow gets by with no more than 900 generals."

I'll see if I can look up the cables again or a relevant article on it. But it happened over a decade ago... maybe its not relevant anymore.

Venezuela could attempt an amphibious invasion though, which means Guyana would need to invest in ice rated cruise ships or something to defend their maritime borders.

Major Naval Confrontation!

Venezuelan Navy 0, Cruise Ship 1 Behold the competence and skill of the Venezuelan Navy! A fully armed warship was overpowered and defeated by a perfidious trap sprung by a cruise ship which cunningly tricked the warship into first firing upon and then ramming the civilian craft. Minor...

www.the-sietch.com

Oh and there's this article on Venezuela's regressive air defense capability.

Backwards Modernisation: Venezuela’s Israeli Barak-1 Air Defence Systems

www.oryxspioenkop.com

 

[Zachowon]

Well that's the thing. There are no major roads between Guyana and Venezuela. All of the roads that could lead from one to the other, go south through Brazilian state of Roraima where currently Venezuelan gangs and cartels are engaging in deadly criminal operations, much to the consternation of the local Brazilian authorities since Venezuela itself isn't really doing anything about exporting its lawlessness criminality abroad.

So Brazil may use this as a chance to step up against those groups and maybe defend Guyana

Venezuela still has to somehow manage an invasion through apparently underdeveloped jungle and wilderness.

Back when things were slightly less fucked up and there was a big ol border controversy with Colombia, Maduro threatened Colombia by stating he would deploy his armored military forces to the Colombian border. There were rumors that his military was wheezing with incompetence to try and do just that and when the US Diplomatic Cables leak occurred it publicized several US diplomatic cables talking about what a trickle of armored vehicles that the Venezuelan military was trying to bring (via a well developed road network mind you) to said Colombian border.

Granted this was back in 2010. Maybe Maduro changed things for the better and the Venezuelan military actually improved in competency. From an Economist article back during that crisis it was said "Officers or former officers run 11 of the 32 ministries; 11 of the 23 state governors are retired officers. Mr Maduro has been a prolific producer of generals. On one day last year he promoted 195 officers to that rank, bringing their number to more than 2,000. The United States somehow gets by with no more than 900 generals."

I'll see if I can look up the cables again or a relevant article on it. But it happened over a decade ago... maybe its not relevant anymore.

Venezuela could attempt an amphibious invasion though, which means Guyana would need to invest in ice rated cruise ships or something to defend their maritime borders.

Major Naval Confrontation!

Venezuelan Navy 0, Cruise Ship 1 Behold the competence and skill of the Venezuelan Navy! A fully armed warship was overpowered and defeated by a perfidious trap sprung by a cruise ship which cunningly tricked the warship into first firing upon and then ramming the civilian craft. Minor...

www.the-sietch.com

Oh and there's this article on Venezuela's regressive air defense capability.

Backwards Modernisation: Venezuela’s Israeli Barak-1 Air Defence Systems

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Columbia actually is somewhat competent with military and not a tiny small military force like Guyana

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Venezuelan troops now on the border.

LINK

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Venezuelan troops now on the border.

LINK

And here we go…

 

[lordhen]

An anybody seen this map, the Venezuelan government has released a new official map of Venezuela which includes the oil-rich Essequibo region of its neighboring state of Guyana.

 

[49ersfootball]

Venezuela still has to somehow manage an invasion through apparently underdeveloped jungle and wilderness.

Back when things were slightly less fucked up and there was a big ol border controversy with Colombia, Maduro threatened Colombia by stating he would deploy his armored military forces to the Colombian border. There were rumors that his military was wheezing with incompetence to try and do just that and when the US Diplomatic Cables leak occurred it publicized several US diplomatic cables talking about what a trickle of armored vehicles that the Venezuelan military was trying to bring (via a well developed road network mind you) to said Colombian border.

Granted this was back in 2010. Maybe Maduro changed things for the better and the Venezuelan military actually improved in competency. From an Economist article back during that crisis it was said "Officers or former officers run 11 of the 32 ministries; 11 of the 23 state governors are retired officers. Mr Maduro has been a prolific producer of generals. On one day last year he promoted 195 officers to that rank, bringing their number to more than 2,000. The United States somehow gets by with no more than 900 generals."

I'll see if I can look up the cables again or a relevant article on it. But it happened over a decade ago... maybe its not relevant anymore.

Venezuela could attempt an amphibious invasion though, which means Guyana would need to invest in ice rated cruise ships or something to defend their maritime borders.

Major Naval Confrontation!

Venezuelan Navy 0, Cruise Ship 1 Behold the competence and skill of the Venezuelan Navy! A fully armed warship was overpowered and defeated by a perfidious trap sprung by a cruise ship which cunningly tricked the warship into first firing upon and then ramming the civilian craft. Minor...

www.the-sietch.com

Oh and there's this article on Venezuela's regressive air defense capability.

Backwards Modernisation: Venezuela’s Israeli Barak-1 Air Defence Systems

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Wasn't this escalating during the Chavez administration ?

Venezuelan troops now on the border.

LINK

Holy Shit!

Guyana: You're officially the Ukraine of South America!

I hope the Guyanese Armed Forces can fight back.

 

[Free-Stater 101]

An anybody seen this map, the Venezuelan government has released a new official map of Venezuela which includes the oil-rich Essequibo region of its neighboring state of Guyana.

Yep, it's happening. The U.S. is distracted by the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, Maduro see's a piggy bank to distract and prop up his image and decided it's worth it to avoid an overthrow.

According to this news source which is actually liberally slanted on national matters Biden appears to be digging his head in the sand although the military are not, his administrations belief is that they can somehow pressure Venezuela into having free and fair elections which they can't do if the country dislikes them...

Fucking what! You can't negotiate with a country that is attacking an almost completely innocent neighbor purely for monetary gain and to rile up political support and if they win and it will bolster's Maduro's popularity only making free elections even less of an astronomically small possibility.

The saner reaction for an invasion is to wait for Guyana to appeal to the Organization of American States then go the Persian Gulf War route and libertate Guyana from Maduro making the entire thing a failure and an embarrassment for him, that way we don't get negative press for being 'Imperialist' which we would if we invaded Venuzuela wholesale and have no economic responsibility of nation building.

Because if Biden drops the ball on this it literally sends the signal to any country that has a border dispute that if they have one they want 'corrected' the use of armed force won't be punished by armed force.

In other words, North Korea may be emboldened, China may go after Taiwan it's all relative.

More dictatorial shenanigans

In other related News the Venezuelan Government has arrested several members of the opposition with close links to the opposing presidential candidate María Corina Machado.

The alleged charge is treason for trying to 'undermine/sabatage' the referendum concerning Essiquibo in an alleged conspiracy with Exxon-Mobile

Here is Guyana's president on the matter.

 

[49ersfootball]

Yep, it's happening. The U.S. is distracted by the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, Maduro see's a piggy bank to distract and prop up his image and decided it's worth it to avoid an overthrow.

According to this news source which is actually liberally slanted on national matters Biden appears to be digging his head in the sand although the military are not, his administrations belief is that they can somehow pressure Venezuela into having free and fair elections which they can't do if the country dislikes them...

Fucking what! You can't negotiate with a country that is attacking an almost completely innocent neighbor purely for monetary gain and to rile up political support and if they win and it will bolster's Maduro's popularity only making free elections even less of an astronomically small possibility.

The saner reaction for an invasion is to wait for Guyana to appeal to the Organization of American States then go the Persian Gulf War route and libertate Guyana from Maduro making the entire thing a failure and an embarrassment for him, that way we don't get negative press for being 'Imperialist' which we would if we invaded Venuzuela wholesale and have no economic responsibility of nation building.

Because if Biden drops the ball on this it literally sends the signal to any country that has a border dispute that if they have one they want 'corrected' the use of armed force won't be punished by armed force.

In other words, North Korea may be emboldened, China may go after Taiwan it's all relative.

More dictatorial shenanigans

In other related News the Venezuelan Government has arrested several members of the opposition with close links to the opposing presidential candidate María Corina Machado.

The alleged charge is treason for trying to 'undermine/sabatage' the referendum concerning Essiquibo in an alleged conspiracy with Exxon-Mobile

Here is Guyana's president on the matter.

Let's not forget about the possibility of NK itching to do something similar against Republic of Korea.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Wasn't this escalating during the Chavez administration ?

Chavez earlier said the issue was settled but reversed himself towards the end of his reign (and life).

I hope the Guyanese Armed Forces can fight back.

The Guyanese Military is pretty small, like three thousand troops while Venezuela's military is 130,000 strong plus reserves and the militias/cartels. This is why Guyana is now courting foreign intervention, including hosting military bases on their territory.

Brazil supports Guyana and is critical of Venezuela for many reasons, but this includes the fact that Brazil not only doesn't want Venezuela starting invasions and Wars, but also because such hostilities might result in America and Britain then being permitted to operate in what Brazil feels is its sphere of influence.

 

[Free-Stater 101]

Chavez earlier said the issue was settled but reversed himself towards the end of his reign (and life).



The Guyanese Military is pretty small, like three thousand troops while Venezuela's military is 130,000 strong plus reserves and the militias/cartels. This is why Guyana is now courting foreign intervention, including hosting military bases on their territory.

Brazil supports Guyana and is critical of Venezuela for many reasons, but this includes the fact that Brazil not only doesn't want Venezuela starting invasions and Wars, but also because such hostilities might result in America and Britain then being permitted to operate in what Brazil feels is its sphere of influence.

Guyana is also a commonwealth member so besides the OAS and the UN they have them to appeal to for aid.

 

[IndyFront]

Those who are now supporting the idea of Guyana getting invaded and smearing it as a fake state are probably gonna end up posting "current thing" memes to mock those who now support Guyana, even though they themselves probably didn't even know of the country's existence until last week.

 

[Bacle]

 

[Tiamat]

U.S. announces military drills with Guyana amid dispute over oil-rich region with Venezuela

The U.S. said it would conduct joint military flight drills in Guyana on Thursday amid rising tensions with Venezuela over a disputed Guyanese territory that's rich in oil.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[LordsFire]

U.S. announces military drills with Guyana amid dispute over oil-rich region with Venezuela

The U.S. said it would conduct joint military flight drills in Guyana on Thursday amid rising tensions with Venezuela over a disputed Guyanese territory that's rich in oil.

www.cbsnews.com

Yeah, *that's* a pretty serious 'Don't try it pal.'

With a Dem in the WH, still might chicken out, but at least *some* deterrence is being applied.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

We cannot let PRC infect our own damn Hemisphere for Christ's sake.

This is eerily similar to the Five Decades of Fear & Loathing TL.

Who made the TL?

Do you think the US could at least give the task of crippling Venezuela's military to Colombia as to prevent Guyana from falling?

 

[Tiamat]

Yeah, *that's* a pretty serious 'Don't try it pal.'

With a Dem in the WH, still might chicken out, but at least *some* deterrence is being applied.

Problem is, Maduro is many things, particularly bright is not necessarily among them. I think he's going to try something, he'd look weak otherwise after that supposed "referendum".

 

[Zachowon]

VERY accurate.
Probably making bets and seeing who will have to do extra detIls

 

[gral]

Who made the TL?

Do you think the US could at least give the task of crippling Venezuela's military to Colombia as to prevent Guyana from falling?

With Colombia's current president being sympathetic to the Venezuelans? Not a good idea.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

With Colombia's current president being sympathetic to the Venezuelans? Not a good idea.

I almost forgot that Colombia has a Red president. I thought they're close to the US.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

I almost forgot that Colombia has a Red president. I thought they're close to the US.

Not really.