Perun released a video on the current border crisis.
Some brief takeaways are that Maduro could be motivated just as much by domestic concerns as international ones and that this is most likely just symbolic posturing. However he could perceive Guyana's economic growth as something to inhibit. Options beyond symbolic posturing include piracy and harassment, show the flag type of operations off of the coast, and/or maintaining small footprints in the Amazonian jungle etc.
The risk of a special military operation would be the utter lack of backing of Maduro in this regard by any world powers with the exception of maybe Russia. Brazil and the United States would be against it. And the Venezuelan military would be really pushing its limits by trying to seize Essequibo by advancing through the Amazonian jungle or engaging in largescale maritime landings against Georgetown or that area in general. Sanctions and corruption etc have also impacted Venezuelan military readiness.
More sanctions and divestment and economic isolation, risks of foreign intervention and the costs of invasion and occupation are all also serious risks but in light of all of that, you also can't rule out Stupid.