If any word that we are giving nukes to Taiwan would to get out, we would basically be declaring war on China. China would invade Taiwan and so we have no choice but to get invovled/
And we will be defending Taiwan basically no matter what
And we will be defending Taiwan basically no matter what
Yes, the top levels in DC are rather subverted by China, and prefer poking the Bear; while it seems the lower levels are itching to fight China.
Having nukes in Taiwan shows we are serious about them being an independent nation, and not just a rogue province we prop up for micro-chips.
I mean I guess Taiwan could go the biowarfare route to secure a deterrent and their status as an independent nation, but that has far greater chance of backfiring ala Wuhan.
The farce of the "Two China's Policy" needs to end.
Either Taiwan is an independent nation and ally worthy of a direct nuclear umbrella, or it is a rogue province of the CCP we are patrons of because of their microchips, and thus we have no moral standing to fight over it, only mercenary interest in the production capabilities.
Which is it?
Because if we put nukes on Taiwan we are pulling a Cuban missle crisis with them.
Asking to be nuked.
You know we don't have nukes in Korea ir Japan right?
Yes, because they likely have nukes in the basement, and because the elites in DC are bought by the CCP, so they are not serious about giving our allies they tools they really need to deter the CCP.
Maybe Taiwan also has a nuke in the basement, but us moving nukes on to their island is more useful for also showing we recognize Taiwan as a sovereign and independent nation.
Also, since you think there is going to be a war with China anyway, why not make sure we have nuclear armed allies in the immediate region? Or do you still believe that war with the CCP over Taiwan will somehow not go nuclear anyway?
The answer to all this is...there won't be a war with China over Taiwan, because the powers in DC are owned by the CCP and the Pentagon still wants people like you to think that there is a real chance the powers in DC would ever stand up to the CCP meaningfully.
That is why we do not have nukes in Japan, SK, and Taiwan; war with China is something to be used as an excused for increased military budgets and recruitment, not something the powers in DC will actually allow to happen.
I actually would expect a war with Russia over some damn fool thing in the Balkans or Baltics, more than war with the CCP over Taiwan.
We might poke the Bear, but DC is owned by the Dragon.
Bassoe
Well-known member
I think that nobody would win a US/China war and this seems like an excellent reason not to have one. Therefore Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0, Taiwanese Edition would be a bad idea due to the extreme likelihood of it starting such a war. However, letting China seize Taiwanese microchip manufacturing would also be bad since we need those microchips and they could cut off our supply or threaten to do so as a negotiating tactic. The logical answer would be to spend the money we'd otherwise have used on defending foreign industries on rebuilding copies of said industries in our own country, but that'd go against modern economic dogma.
The problem with that reasoning is that if China seizes Taiwan, history doesn't end.
If China seizes Taiwan and doesn't regret it, then this is going to be rock hard evidence that China has both the military and political power to seize any SEA country with equal or greater impunity, because they aren't even fortress islands like Taiwan.
They will know it, and the SEA countries will know it, and both will know that the other knows.
This would have major consequences to the politics of the whole region.
Bassoe
Well-known member
Translation, South Korea, Japan and possibly Vietnam get the Bomb. This is bad from a perspective of 'the fewer nations with nuclear weapons, the lower the chances of nuclear war', good from a perspective of 'American lives and money aren't being expended on defending foreigners' and 'Americans can get jobs at the new microchip plants in America rather than Taiwan'.
That's very nice for the 3, though would not be so sure Vietnam can do it and get decent delivery systems on top of that in time.
The rest of the region can get used to being China's satrapies.
Terthna
Professional Lurker
You make it sound like if we just let Hitler conqueror
Bassoe
Well-known member
Counterargument, Nazi Germany existed in the pre-MAD world, we and modern China do not. These days all a country needs as a guaranteed defense against foreign invasion is the ability to ensure both sides lose.
Terthna
Professional Lurker
Correction; they need both the ability, and the willingness, to do so. Now, let me ask you; do you honestly believe that a country who refuses to act against the aggression of an enemy state out of fear of provoking a nuclear response, would ever actually use their own nuclear arsenal under any circumstances? After all, if we just hold back, maybe they'll just go away and leave us alone; meanwhile, our own leaders will have long since been completely subverted, and will simply hand over our nuclear weapons (and our country along with them) without a fight.
For Pete's sake; one of our own generals called up China's government to assure them that he'd warn them if we were ever going to attack them! Does that sound like someone who wouldn't sell us out if their military was on our doorstep, ready to invade?
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MAD applies only to nuclear powers, and even then it applies fully only to those that stay on top of the game in terms of quality and quantity of delivery mechanisms.
See: Russia's new strategic torpedo.
Something like Pakistan or North Korea, a country with good delivery and countermeasure systems would have a good chance to destroy them and get hit with zero, or at worst few nukes in return.
Russia made a weapon straight out of a Tom Clancy novel specifically to not get put in such a position by the western successes with ABM technology.
China is significantly expanding its nuclear arsenal for similar reasons.
In today's world MAD is no longer a binary, and it is becoming increasingly less so.
So yeah, China most likely won't directly attack USA or Russia.
However, that means everyone else is fair game, and as such China could build an empire through most, if not all of Asia, make a joke out of the alliances both of them have there, and then use the economic and political power of that empire to put a whole lot of strain on USA and Russia, which they would be far from guaranteed to take well.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Depends on the kind of ordinance that gets thrown at it. It's generally not used for the heavy stuff, but the latest versions have the ability to shoot down UAVs and cruise missiles (don't think it was combat proven yet though), that is the more likely reason why they're deploying them there.
It's taken drones down that were launched against Israel.
Not that I'm aware of. Hamas drones were mostly taken down by F-16s IIRC.
They've successfully completed tests against drones, and, in one case, accidentally shot down one of their own drones after the Iron Dome controllers misidentified it as a hostile aircraft during a rocket attack by Hezbollah.
All true, but not exactly real combat experience. I have no doubt the system would prove effective in this role, but it's still important to note this fact.