No, I'm pretty sure they won't.
Don't expect most of them to be very ideological (so much as looting, power-mad oligarchs), but given the Communist Party's size and Russian public's desensitization to Bolshevik rule (despite no longer being Communists), you're bound to get a number of militant Neo-Communists who set up their own Paris Communes, Civil War Catalonias, and CHAZ-style hellholes in the margins that are more comparable to the Khmer Rouge than the actual USSR. Not that I expect them to triumph in the end, but a few will damn well try — and massacre scores of helpless victims before being squashed by either stronger warlords or Chinese troops marching in to restore order.
You're taking an imagined worst-case scenario as a given. It's possible, but there are a variety of outcomes (which we've discussed before, in some detail). I don't think it's warranted to assume that the worst outcome possible (as you see it) is the inevitable go-to.
And I think it would be a smart move for all of us to
stop assuming that the worst-case outcome will always happen. You do this a
lot, man-- and I don't think it's helping any. Realism is good, doomerism is useless. It yields no constructive outcomes.
For perspective, here are some outcomes that can be considered, most of which are different from what you outline:
1. Russia manages to force a stalemate, until an anti-interventionist takes over in the USA. Subsequently, NATO support for Ukraine drops. This isn't enough to allow Russia to still win (at this point, practically no scenario would allow Russia to actually
win); but they can effectively keep their ill-gotten gains as matters descend into yet another "frozen conflict". The West still hates Russia, sanctions remain, and Russia's economy is still crap. Putin stays in power, but he oversees (essentially) a shit-hole country that can survive only by tying its economic destiny to the good will of China. Post-Putin, Russia descends into de facto Chinese vassalage. It may stay together, or there may be a civil war between the gangs of rival gangster-politicians, but the upshot is that Russia is a worthless ex-power, now in China's back pocket. (Regardless of the details, China will have enough influence to prevent unpredictable crazies from gaining any real power.)
Conceivably, in case of a new civil war, the West will still be able to prop up a pro-Western regime in (parts of) European Russia, offering significant economic aid in return for loyalty. This would be a long shot, due to the West effectively failing to follow through in Ukraine earlier... but the attempt would still be worth it, in order to prevent the Chinese-ruled coalition from effectively
bordering on Poland. If the West is not capable of making this work, then... well, then a Chinese vassal state armed with nukes now borders on the EU. (Well done, dumb fucks.) I personally consider
that to be the worst outcome.
2. Russia effectively loses the war before the close of 2024. (And thus, before the American elections can possibly bring an anti-interventionist to power.) This doesn't even require complete eviction of Russian forces (yet); a Ukrainian break-through to the coast in the South-East, and the subsequent near-inevitable destruction of the Kerch bridge, would handily suffice. (Once the Crimea is cut off, it can be retaken. Once that's done, the Donbass can be retaken, too, because Ukraine will be free to throw everything they have at it then.) Russia is in a complete boon-doggle. Their war was indisputably for nothing, they've lost (or are soon to lose) all their gains, their economy is wrecked, the West is galvanised in their pro-Ukraine stance, sanctions remain in place as long as Putin is in power, and the Russian economy is shittier than ever. If Putin stays in power, it's through very thorough repression of all dissent, meaning the powder-keg goes
boom as soon as he dies (of natural causes or otherwise). In this event, a post-Putin civil war is very likely.
Again, the West may be able to prop up a pro-Western regime. Chances are better for that, in this scenario: the fact that Putin and his bullshit will be hated by a lot of Russians by then will help. Again, the main opponent will be China, whose leaders will eagerly sponsor any anti-Western (and pro-"Eurasian") factions that may arise in the Russian mess. Note that both the West
and China will seek to keep radical nutjobs
out of power, because that would be harmful to both their interest. You should think more along the lines of Russia being divided into spheres of influence, if not outright partitioned. The Western interest here would be to put the line of division as far East as can be reasonably managed.
3. Same scenario as (2), but the Russian military collapse leads to the (near-)immediate overthrow or "sudden death by bizarre accident" of Vladimir Putin. Here, a Russian civil war (at least to some degree) is again pretty damn likely. Several factions vying for power will try to remove the competition in... typical Russian ways.
Again, this can lead to possibilities where a pro-Western regime is propped up in European Russia. Indeed, I've argued that this is the
best-case scenario for that, and that the West should go all-in on offering Marshall Aid to the Russians, provided that they install a suitably pro-Western government... and surrender their WMDs. That last one's important. Basically, the deal is: "
we save your country from ruin, and we restore your access to the word economy, but you give us all the nukes and things of that nature." Even in such a best-case scenario, I'm pretty sure that (most of) Asiatic Russia will fall into China's sphere of influence. But either way, the limit of China's direct reach will then be somewhere beyond the Urals, which is reasonably acceptable.
If the West fucks it up, however, we can again end up with Chinese influence coming much closer, as
they pick up the broken pieces of Russia. I'm reasonably sure that with a clear Russian defeat (and the subsequent disarray as Putin is couped), the West can quickly terminate the regime in Belarus, and probably strike to gain control over Kaliningrad... but the core of European Russia will then still be a Chinese puppet, with its nukes aimed at Europe. Bad outcome, and should be avoided.
Alternatively, as Putin is overthrown and the various factions have at it, both the West and China lose control, and a pack of total crazies takes the lead in Russia. Such crazies are hardly capable of forming a functioning government, but this is basically your scenario of "lunatic warlords", a.k.a. "
Mad Max: Russia". (...."
Mad Marx"?
) --- however, I don't think that's the worst-case scenario, because I don't think they'll be half as organised or capable as you apparantly assume. It'll be "The Yugaslav Wars, but bigger". That gives you an indication and a good picture of what to expect. That's shit, but better than a Chinese empire that effectively borders on the EU.
To summarise: the best outcome is the one where Ukraine beats Russia with Western help, and then the West helps both Ukraine and Russia rebuild, while Russia has to give up its WMDs, and the influence of China is kept as far East of the Urals as can be managed. The worst outcome is the one where Russia forces a stalemate, Putin retains power for several more years, in part by becoming ever more reliant on Chinese support, so that when he croaks, all of Russia is a total Chinese vassal, and the West is check-mated in all of this.
(Perhaps this is veering way off-topic, though, in which case any mod should obviously feel free to move the whole conversation starting with
@Zyobot's post #9073 to the off-topic-DonbAss-whatever-it's-called thread.)
trendingpoliticsnews.com
