Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Poe

Well-known member
Russia's stated objectives have been set out since the beginning of the war, and they never included the conquest of 100% of Ukraine. Unless they explicitly change those objectives, we must use them as the yardstick of victory.

If I were a Ukrainian, my definition of victory would have been forcing the Russians to the table on my terms and minimising my losses.
Basically everyone knows that Russias goal is to take all of Ukraine, maybe breaking up some small states to act as a buffer between them and NATO. It maybe considered an "open secret," but it isn't one they are even pretending is a secret. It's outright stated by people like Dugin, both today and in his Geopolitics book which is mandatory reading for the officer corp. You can be pedantic and pretend this isn't their goal but we all, including you, know it is.

"They'll take us seriously once we've taken Lviv."
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Turns out the sinking of the Corvette is actually a good thing.





If it even was a military warship at all...

GFQ2zXgW8AAYoxK
 

strunkenwhite

Well-known member
Russia's stated objectives have been set out since the beginning of the war, and they never included the conquest of 100% of Ukraine. Unless they explicitly change those objectives, we must use them as the yardstick of victory.
You're saying Russia's war goals have been explicit and unchanging this whole time? I could have sworn I've seen very different war goals expressed by officials who would be expected to know them but tell me what you've got and I'll go check.
That sounds more like opposition to Ukraine in Ukraine friendly states.
The other side also gets a veto, and for one it values the technical state of war as excuse for some internal restrictions and other policy matters, and would much rather keep trying than admit defeat by ceasing.

It wasn't like that for first few decades, there were skirmish flareups in the 50's with hundreds dead and attempts to seize islands, regular artillery exchanges until late 70's, and eventually US Navy showing up prevented another crisis in the 90's...
And that's with ocean to separate them and US Navy being around to look angrily at the events.

Isolationists are being manipulative dicks in saying that, for they are the ones who always whine that the West should cut off supplies to begin with and spend inordinate amount of lobbying resources and airtime trying to promote this view, so they are trying to fulfill their very own accusation and blame everyone else for planning that all along.
For one China is stingy towards Russia with assistance, people struggle to imagine how much China technically *could* do for Russia but doesn't. North Korea and Iran possibly do more than China, but they can do only so much.
1. Fair enough that Russia also gets a say in how this ends, though sanction repeal offers could have an effect on that.

2. What I meant by stable equilibrium is that all that stuff led neither to war nor to permanent changes in the status quo. It's a lot easier to peck away at a land border. (On the other hand, NK and SK managed it, but IMO a lot of that had to do with the Cold War and neither patron being willing to risk escalation to WWIII.)

3. I agree with all that. I'm just saying that's the most likely way I can imagine such a scenario; I'm not saying I find such a scenario actually likely.
 

AnimalNoodles

Well-known member
You're saying Russia's war goals have been explicit and unchanging this whole time? I could have sworn I've seen very different war goals expressed by officials who would be expected to know them but tell me what you've got and I'll go check.

The only person who matters is Putin. People spouting off on twitter doesnt count.

But I suspect Russias actual aims have greatly evolved now.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
1. Fair enough that Russia also gets a say in how this ends, though sanction repeal offers could have an effect on that.
Could... but then again, that would require a more general thaw in relations between Russia and the West, which is something which would require changes in Russia in internal and foreign policy, and an end to war in Ukraine, by win, loss, stalemate or whatever, would not be that, at least not by itself, as it would in no way prevent Russia from doing all sorts of other things it could do or is already doing in its related "cold war" with the West.
It would be hilariously incompetent to lift sanctions on Russia as a compromise on ending Ukraine war, just so that Russia can have 5 years or so to restock western industrial and military tech component warehouses, refill the war chest, and try again, in Ukraine, or, say, Georgia, or somewhere else. I think some sort of political changes in Russia would be a prerequisite for repealing at least some more sensitive sanctions.
2. What I meant by stable equilibrium is that all that stuff led neither to war nor to permanent changes in the status quo. It's a lot easier to peck away at a land border. (On the other hand, NK and SK managed it, but IMO a lot of that had to do with the Cold War and neither patron being willing to risk escalation to WWIII.)
Yup, the sea really made border changes harder, and there was some mad shit happening between NK and SK, like tunnel commando raids and abductions, and that was despite US troops stationed in SK.
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
The T-55 is carrying a gazeebo to protect from top-dwn drone attacks?

To be fair the semi flat tops of these BMP's and MTLB's are pretty well suited to picnicking. If you get a retractable awning or something it'd be nice for sunbathing as well.

Can't do that with a Bradley... The Abrams is probably better suited to mounting a recreational gazebo then the Russian T-series tanks though.
 

Buba

A total creep
BMP's and MTLB's are pretty well suited to picnicking. If you get a retractable awning or something it'd be nice for sunbathing as well.
I never learned if she completed that project, but a fellow SoB player had plans to put sunbathing bikini girls on her Rhinos :)
 

Tiamat

I've seen the future...
My fucking god, they're actually using T-55 relics.

I know we were joking and making memes about it, but they're actually fucking doing it. I mean, it'd be different if they were modernized or upgraded versions, but these are stock T-55's.

I think it's safe to say Russia is fucked.

Covert Cabal did a video last fall estimating how many tanks of various types that Russia has in storage. It included just over 200 T-55's and he goes into some detail regarding their possible condition in his video.



As for the particular variant of the T-55 in question.






Okay...who wants to place a running bet we eventually start seeing T34/85's placed in service? Anyone? Because the Soviets never threw anything away, and they supposedly still had thousands of those in storage before the USSR broke up.
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Such "all stock must go!" warehouse clearing has been ongoing since 2022.

And it's not all stock that is going. Ukraine has declined some military aid offered. What comes to mind presently is Portugal offered to deliver Ukraine five M114 155mm Howitzers but Ukraine declined the offer because the guns were considered too old and heavy at the time (Summer of 2022) which was a pretty intensive part of the conflict with lots of artillery exchanges going on.

 

Buba

A total creep
Hmm - Weight? In an era of easily available tractors should not be a factor.
The M114 should use standard NATO ammo. I suspect it was the bother of having a (small) battery of unique weapons ... maybe no spare parts for them? Antiquated sights? Lack of manpower to man such guns? Like you said - age - worn? Poor condition?
Used up barrels needing replacement/relining - either now or after a meagre few hundred shots?
I can think of many reasons - and I'm no military person :) - but weight should be Least Concern :p
 

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