Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Tiamat]

Well good for them, they’re wrong.

This is not a different cultural attitude, this is the delusion of a fallen empire that still thinks it’s the top dog in its neck of the words. Russia is fighting like it’s still the USSR or even the Old Empire; but it isn’t.

Russia simply does not have the resources to wage war on that scale anymore, and by trying to do so they have damned themselves. The only thing that has kept them going so far is their massive stockpile of Soviet kit that they are burning through at an industrial rate. Economic sanctions and their own corruption has crippled their manufacturing to such an extent that the losses cannot be replaced. Their only hope is that Ukraine folds before they finish burning through their stockpile. Because if Kyiv has not fallen by the time the last T-55 is destroyed…oh dear…

They may still, reputedly have some stocks of T-34/85's and IS series tanks. The Soviets/Russians never really threw anything away. Although, if you have to be desperate enough to pull those out...?

 

[Jormungandr]

They may still, reputedly have some stocks of T-34/85's and IS series tanks. The Soviets/Russians never really threw anything away. Although, if you have to be desperate enough to pull those out...?

Given how bad Russia's losses are and look to continue to be, I wouldn't be surprised if they did drag out those relics.

 

[Tiamat]

Given how bad Russia's losses are and look to continue to be, I wouldn't be surprised if they did drag out those relics.

Considering the Russians supplied WW2-era Mosin Nagant rifles to the Donetsk and Luhansk militias, and Ukraine has been using Maxim machine guns (yes, a weapon that was developed around 1884), it wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Considering the Russians supplied WW2-era Mosin Nagant rifles to the Donetsk and Luhansk militias, and Ukraine has been using Maxim machine guns (yes, a weapon that was developed around 1884), it wouldn't surprise me at all.

Let's be honest. War doesn't give a crap how new your tools-of-death are. IF they work, use them. If the DON'T work...you'll just lose.

 

[LordsFire]

Let's be honest. War doesn't give a crap how new your tools-of-death are. IF they work, use them. If the DON'T work...you'll just lose.

The big issue, is that different levels of technology matter different amounts in different applications.

The late 1800's is when the most important developments to infantry guns happened/finished happening. High accuracy, reasonably rugged, long range, firing with brass cartridges, etc. Infantry weapons have certainly improved since then, but a Maxim will shoot you as dead as an M2, or whatever the most recent SAW is in a given military. A lot of the improvement in the last half century has been shedding excess weight, and standardizing the use of good optics.

All of that said, a cheap sight on a Mosin-Nagant, or preferably something a little newer like an M1 Garand, and you'll get 70-90% of the most important part of performance for holding a trench line against enemy infantry.


The same is not even remotely true for armored fighting vehicles, whether they're tanks, APCs, IFVs, SPGs, or whatever else. Armor on anything from before the 1980's is basically useless against any dedicated anti-armor weapon from the last 40 years, and their guns aren't great against tanks with newer armor either.

How fast they can move, how reliable they are, how much maintenance they require, how good their external sensors are, how accurate they are, can they operate effectively at night, how quickly can their crews bail out if shit hits the fan?

Ye olde soviet war machines are lacking in all of these regards, and as they've already wasted large portions of their newer kit, things are likely to continue to go downhill.


...And the disparity by decade of gear production is even worse in air combat.

 

[Jormungandr]

The big issue, is that different levels of technology matter different amounts in different applications.

The late 1800's is when the most important developments to infantry guns happened/finished happening. High accuracy, reasonably rugged, long range, firing with brass cartridges, etc. Infantry weapons have certainly improved since then, but a Maxim will shoot you as dead as an M2, or whatever the most recent SAW is in a given military. A lot of the improvement in the last half century has been shedding excess weight, and standardizing the use of good optics.

All of that said, a cheap sight on a Mosin-Nagant, or preferably something a little newer like an M1 Garand, and you'll get 70-90% of the most important part of performance for holding a trench line against enemy infantry.


The same is not even remotely true for armored fighting vehicles, whether they're tanks, APCs, IFVs, SPGs, or whatever else. Armor on anything from before the 1980's is basically useless against any dedicated anti-armor weapon from the last 40 years, and their guns aren't great against tanks with newer armor either.

How fast they can move, how reliable they are, how much maintenance they require, how good their external sensors are, how accurate they are, can they operate effectively at night, how quickly can their crews bail out if shit hits the fan?

Ye olde soviet war machines are lacking in all of these regards, and as they've already wasted large portions of their newer kit, things are likely to continue to go downhill.


...And the disparity by decade of gear production is even worse in air combat.

This was even true in WW1: When tanks were first introduced, they were behemoths that were seemingly unstoppable, and they were considered one of the safest positions on the battlefield because bullets meant to be shoot at people just bounced off them.

And then Germany quickly introduced a heavier machine gun and bullet, and suddenly those same tanks became motorized coffins as these new bullets went straight through like it were made of tissue paper.

The Cold War and its proxy wars (which included the Korean War)? Jets, and the initial panic over the Soviet Foxbat MiG.

Soviet-era gear now may as well be made of Kleenex.

 

[Buba]

Nice going, Putin! We should send you a gift basket for all your hard work fostering Western unity!

NATO expansion into Scandinavia has joined the chat ....

Zelensky will have earned his statue next to the Ukrainian Parliament building by my estimation. A more unlikely Churchill figure you could never find.

Considering that Churchil was a perenial fuckup it is incredible that he ended up as revered as he is ...

Back to topic - my uninformed opinion is that the 2014 and 2021 conflicts forged Ukraine as a nation. This killed all (?) panslavic/Great Russian sentiments. Look at the Orthodox Church there - the national church of most of Ukraine - before the war there was a split between supporters of "Ukrainian" and "Great Russian" affiliation - now it seems to be overwelmingly Ukrainian.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

New Perun Video, this one has the topic of the Russian Winter Offensives but is a fair bit more broad then that. After summarizing the Winter Offensives up til now, he then breaks down the heavy equipment losses of both sides, the misreporting that occurs when documenting losses, and breaks it down and compares it by theater (Zaporizhzhia, Krynky and Avdiivka) over the previous months.

He then talks about the adaptions both sides have made in the previous months, and how most of the engagements have been smaller scale then earlier in the conflict. Then he discusses the Black Sea theater and how Russia is unwilling to enact a "Houthi" style blockade that shoots at everything, and doesn't have the potential capability of a traditional blockade then and so has fallen back on using naval mines. It also discusses Ukraine's systematic strikes on Russia's naval assets in Crimea.

Perun then moves onto the Air War, talking about new capabilities the Ukrainians might get, as well as the idea that Ukraine was using its long range air defense systems like the Patriot to ambush the Russian Air Force last month (which reportedly resulted in three Su-34's downed). He then covers the changes in Russia's ongoing missile campaign including the recent heavy missile attacks that took place and then the even more recent Ukrainian drone strikes on targets in Russia in turn.

One of the final topics he discusses is the overall manpower of both sides and the claims and estimates of casualties as well towards the ending part of the video.





There's possibilities that this transfer of Soviet Air Defense systems might include stuff from thirty party countries as well. It's still unverified AFAIK but Ecuador of all places could be transferring some of their Soviet equipment to the United States who will deliver it to Ukraine.



Back in August of 2022, Croatia donated a few old M-46 130mm early Soviet Era Howitzers to Ukraine... and the very next month, the Ukrainians launched their successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv area.

Now Russian is apparently sending their own ancient 130mm M-46 Howitzers to the front!

im honestly waiting till this is all over to watch Perun's videos for a good chuckle.

 

[Husky_Khan]

im honestly waiting till this is all over

Any predictions on that front?

 

[LordsFire]

im honestly waiting till this is all over to watch Perun's videos for a good chuckle.

Have you watched any of them?

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Have you watched any of them?

Most likely not. It would challenge his narrative too much, and in the struggle against “the GAE” that cannot be permitted.

Pitiable what politics can reduce a man to.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Have you watched any of them?

watched several of them. His very first one was excellent. The rest vary wildly

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Any predictions on that front?

nope. All I predict is a russian victory.

 

[Buba]

Now Russian is apparently sending their own ancient 130mm M-46 Howitzers to the front!

Bad Husky! These are a CANNON, not HOWITZERS.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Bad Husky! These are a CANNON, not HOWITZERS.

Pretty sure if you do an internet search you'll find hits for both terminologies lol. I think I use the term interchangeably though. Unless it's old fashioned stuff, then it's always cannons. Unless it's not.

 

[Buba]

Pretty sure if you do an internet search you'll find hits for both terminologies lol.

Hits do not correct terminology make.

I think I use the term interchangeably though.

Most modern field artillery are gun-howitzers, that's true.

Unless it's old fashioned stuff, then it's always cannons. Unless it's not.

For one female relation everything pre-1900 was "mortar"
As she was showing me the sites of the city where that part of my family lives, she was terrified that this could involve me asking to be escorted (my knowledge of the local language is low, hence the expectation of the Kind Dears was that I'd doubtlessly get lost and/or murdered if I ventured out on my own) to the artillery musem, a "not woman place".

 

[ATP]

nope. All I predict is a russian victory.

Impossible,russians were wiped out by soviets.If you mean kgbstan,they could win any moment,as long as they agree to be USA ally against China.
They would even get Balts and Poland for free.

Only heroic stupidity of comrade colonel save us till now.

 

[LordsFire]

nope. All I predict is a russian victory.

Russia might manage to make Ukraine lose harder, but it has already lost this war.

There is literally nothing they can get out of Ukraine that is worth what they have already lost fighting over it.

 

[Poe]

Russia might manage to make Ukraine lose harder, but it has already lost this war.

There is literally nothing they can get out of Ukraine that is worth what they have already lost fighting over it.

Once again, the ISW disagrees with you Institute for the Study of War

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Russia might manage to make Ukraine lose harder, but it has already lost this war.

There is literally nothing they can get out of Ukraine that is worth what they have already lost fighting over it.

So this is now the cope?

"russia will win, but its really a loss"?