Poe
Well-known member
Just two more weeks until Russian collapses!
Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)
- Thread starter ParadiseLost
- Start date
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
You do realise this goes both ways right?
And even the Ukrainians now admit that Russia is pulling ahead in the drone war.
"Kherson will fall any day now."
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
"Kherson will fall any day now."
Yeah, and the counteroffensive will succeed!
Yep.
It's so bad that, IIRC, a third of the shells sent are completely unusable due to the quality of the gunpowder and moisture getting in and, well, rotting them from the inside out.
Hey, which one.
Two of them already have.
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
the only one that actually mattered
Kharkiv would like a word about 'mattering', as would Kherson.
But keep on sucking that commie cock, it helps show how stupid Russia supporters are.
Kherson and Kharkiv both mattered
Russia's already collapsed a bunch of times, they collapsed during WW1, they collapsed with the soviet union, if they collapse again the worst case senerio is likely that china seizes the far east, japan takes all of the islands, the fins take the Kola pensular, and all of the ethnic breakaway states leave.
This would still leave russia as one of the largest countries on earth still blessed with a lot of natural resources. They would be relevant but they would have to accept their not the top dog any more.
It's the 2nd part of that sentence that will likely prove false.
Making the Russian psyche consciously accept that...may not be possible.
I'm actually going to disagree with that, Russians have been considered the backwards part of europe for a good chunk of their history, if anything a lot of their issues are not caused by pride but by a national inferority complex that they react to by over reacting and posturing.
In a way its actually sad, because if the russians as a country just sat down, and honestly took stock of themselves and stop focusing on what they didn't have and instead on what they did? They would realize they have everything they need to become great inside their current boarders.
Instead they create enemies and piss away great oportunities because of envy.
This is what the post-Russian space is libel to look like, so no, the rump Russia will barely go east of Urals.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
The map shown is... well, delusional. It just shows Russian subdivisions and says "they'll all be countries". Very unlikely to just play out that way. Most of the 'ethnic regions' shown are >95% Russian, to begin with. They're not really viable as break-away ethnostates.
Roughly speaking, the area indicated by 1-15 or so can be secured by the West, unless retarded defeatism prevails [*]. And 17, 19-22 and 24-32 are safely in China's back yard; the South of 23 as well. So 16, 18 and the Northern part of 23 are likely to be the contested ground.
There's is for damn sure not going to be a 'Caucasian Confederation' (it's about as viable as "Let's re-unite Yugoslavia!"), but that area is likeliest to see true break-aways. Little shitty islamic warlord states. Besides that, count on (Western) Russia losing nothing to the West except Kalingrad and maybe a small Finnish border correction. (There are too few Fins left in Karelia to make annexation of the region viable. The result would be "Too many Russians within our borders!")
A Kalmyk state could be an option if they want it, but that hardly makes a difference, either.
As far as the East is concerned: China will just re-organise that into a "Siberian Federation" or something, which will basically be like Mongolia writ large: a puppet state meant for economic exploitation and gradual demographic assimilation.
Basically, borders roughly like the crude indication I've drawn in blue lines, below. No scores and scores of tiny states. Neither the West nor China has any desire for that kind of chaos. Way too difficult to control.
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[*] If retarded defeatism does prevail, it will not save Russia. The Russian national suicide is already a fact. The only outcome of such a policy will be that China gets everything. Probably including Belarus. Meaning the Chinese sphere of influence will then end up bordering on Poland. That's a terrible notion. Conceivably the worst geo-strategic mistake of this century.
I'm pretty sure whoever is left at that point would bring Russian nukes against China.The map shown is... well, delusional. It just shows Russian subdivisions and says "they'll all be countries". Very unlikely to just play out that way. Most of the 'ethnic regions' shown are >95% Russian, to begin with. They're not really viable as break-away ethnostates.
Roughly speaking, the area indicated by 1-15 or so can be secured by the West, unless retarded defeatism prevails [*]. And 17, 19-22 and 24-32 are safely in China's back yard; the South of 23 as well. So 16, 18 and the Northern part of 23 are likely to be the contested ground.
There's is for damn sure not going to be a 'Caucasian Confederation' (it's about as viable as "Let's re-unite Yugoslavia!"), but that area is likeliest to see true break-aways. Little shitty islamic warlord states. Besides that, count on (Western) Russia losing nothing to the West except Kalingrad and maybe a small Finnish border correction. (There are too few Fins left in Karelia to make annexation of the region viable. The result would be "Too many Russians within our borders!")
A Kalmyk state could be an option if they want it, but that hardly makes a difference, either.
As far as the East is concerned: China will just re-organise that into a "Siberian Federation" or something, which will basically be like Mongolia writ large: a puppet state meant for economic exploitation and gradual demographic assimilation.
Basically, borders roughly like the crude indication I've drawn in blue lines, below. No scores and scores of tiny states. Neither the West nor China has any desire for that kind of chaos. Way too difficult to control.
--------------------------------------
[*] If retarded defeatism does prevail, it will not save Russia. The Russian national suicide is already a fact. The only outcome of such a policy will be that China gets everything. Probably including Belarus. Meaning the Chinese sphere of influence will then end up bordering on Poland. That's a terrible notion. Conceivably the worst geo-strategic mistake of this century.
King Arts
Well-known member
For the most part this is actually reasonable what if for Russia collapsing.The map shown is... well, delusional. It just shows Russian subdivisions and says "they'll all be countries". Very unlikely to just play out that way. Most of the 'ethnic regions' shown are >95% Russian, to begin with. They're not really viable as break-away ethnostates.
Roughly speaking, the area indicated by 1-15 or so can be secured by the West, unless retarded defeatism prevails [*]. And 17, 19-22 and 24-32 are safely in China's back yard; the South of 23 as well. So 16, 18 and the Northern part of 23 are likely to be the contested ground.
There's is for damn sure not going to be a 'Caucasian Confederation' (it's about as viable as "Let's re-unite Yugoslavia!"), but that area is likeliest to see true break-aways. Little shitty islamic warlord states. Besides that, count on (Western) Russia losing nothing to the West except Kalingrad and maybe a small Finnish border correction. (There are too few Fins left in Karelia to make annexation of the region viable. The result would be "Too many Russians within our borders!")
A Kalmyk state could be an option if they want it, but that hardly makes a difference, either.
As far as the East is concerned: China will just re-organise that into a "Siberian Federation" or something, which will basically be like Mongolia writ large: a puppet state meant for economic exploitation and gradual demographic assimilation.
Basically, borders roughly like the crude indication I've drawn in blue lines, below. No scores and scores of tiny states. Neither the West nor China has any desire for that kind of chaos. Way too difficult to control.
--------------------------------------
[*] If retarded defeatism does prevail, it will not save Russia. The Russian national suicide is already a fact. The only outcome of such a policy will be that China gets everything. Probably including Belarus. Meaning the Chinese sphere of influence will then end up bordering on Poland. That's a terrible notion. Conceivably the worst geo-strategic mistake of this century.
I don’t think Skallgrim is saying a literal Chinese invasion. Chinese troops would not be going into Moscow or Saint Petersburg but that if Russia collapses and some type of internal conflict goes on and Russia is weak then foreign nations would give support to some sides to get control. So Russia would be a junior partner in a Chinese NATO.
But that would only happen if the west goes full stupid and tries to hurt Russia instead of helping them when they are down. So for instance giving a Marshall plan to the side we favor in western Russia. If we don’t do that or open up trade and instead go “No keep sanctions up on Russia!” Then the groups inside Russia that favor closer ties with China will win over those that would be ok with the west. So no side would use nukes probably.
The map shown is... well, delusional. It just shows Russian subdivisions and says "they'll all be countries". Very unlikely to just play out that way. Most of the 'ethnic regions' shown are >95% Russian, to begin with. They're not really viable as break-away ethnostates.
Roughly speaking, the area indicated by 1-15 or so can be secured by the West, unless retarded defeatism prevails [*]. And 17, 19-22 and 24-32 are safely in China's back yard; the South of 23 as well. So 16, 18 and the Northern part of 23 are likely to be the contested ground.
There's is for damn sure not going to be a 'Caucasian Confederation' (it's about as viable as "Let's re-unite Yugoslavia!"), but that area is likeliest to see true break-aways. Little shitty islamic warlord states. Besides that, count on (Western) Russia losing nothing to the West except Kalingrad and maybe a small Finnish border correction. (There are too few Fins left in Karelia to make annexation of the region viable. The result would be "Too many Russians within our borders!")
A Kalmyk state could be an option if they want it, but that hardly makes a difference, either.
As far as the East is concerned: China will just re-organise that into a "Siberian Federation" or something, which will basically be like Mongolia writ large: a puppet state meant for economic exploitation and gradual demographic assimilation.
Basically, borders roughly like the crude indication I've drawn in blue lines, below. No scores and scores of tiny states. Neither the West nor China has any desire for that kind of chaos. Way too difficult to control.
--------------------------------------
[*] If retarded defeatism does prevail, it will not save Russia. The Russian national suicide is already a fact. The only outcome of such a policy will be that China gets everything. Probably including Belarus. Meaning the Chinese sphere of influence will then end up bordering on Poland. That's a terrible notion. Conceivably the worst geo-strategic mistake of this century.
Once again Id like to note that the european russian map above is still a country of respectable size and resources.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
Don't forget that the extreme far east of that map is immediately to the west of Alaska. The USA will (in a Russia Collapses scenario) have an interest in China not replacing Russia there. Having complete control of the Bering Strait and the seas north and south of it would be pretty nice, especially if arctic shipping grows dramatically in the next few decades.