Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Marduk

Well-known member
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It was something.
The site is run by some activist, not even politically related to the current government.
The Ukrainian government and their boosters have treated Elon like a POS for over a year when they should've said 'thank you for your support at the time of greatest need i.e. the first days' but instead we get stuff just like what I first responded to. Elon doesn't owe Ukraine jack shit and it's not a credit to the Kyiv government's collective character in constantly inciting this because again, he's not Ukrainian, he took no oaths to Ukraine and it's not like the US DoD didn't purchase unlimited Starlink for Ukraine anyway and which Starlink did sell to the DoD which means Elon doesn't have to worry about the Realpolitik that should be the responsibility of NATO and the animatronics and taxidermists that move Hairsniffer around.

Or maybe this is some giant Kabuki theater to keep Putin from waxing Elon but that goes against Occam's Razor.
Legal CYA is another option. Starlink in the non-Pentagon acquired kinds was always normal civilian one with terms of service that, on the fact of it, on the face of it forbid weaponized use.
From legal perspective, it is a good idea for Musk to stick to enforcing it as far as he knows of it (which is not easy to know), because the way things look, only more countries will be getting more interested in the Starlink+drone setup in more creative ways, and he knows that suddenly this can, completely outside of his control, put him in some nasty, war and politics related legal case in US or other courts, even international shitlib one, just because some politician decides that he's a convenient, loosely related to the situation actor that can be thrown under the bus instead of someone important.

Any major power knows that he's worth organizing influence ops as an individual, which he may have fell for at least a couple times, and that probably lead to him having some backroom talks that have lead to him eagerly giving up operational control over the Ukraine related stuff to DoD, takes a lot of pressuring, whining, convincing, bribing and threatening from several parties out of his hair.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
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So? Again, doesn't owe Ukraine or Russia jack spit and he's no longer CEO of twiXter so that's the purview of the WEF stooge lady he was pretty much forced to install.
It was still going on when he was in charge.

But the Pentagon has conrol over Starlink in that area now iirc
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Musk's issues with his flip-flopping position on Ukraine seem to come down to a few factors/points:

1) ITAR restrictions are a legal headache if Starlink is weaponized against the ToS agreed to with Kyiv/Zelensky for civie/defensive comms use. Just from a legal office perspective, letting Kyiv weaponize Starlink without pushback/attempts to control it/limit it would put Musk in all sorts of export control trouble.


2) Personally targeted psy-ops by Putin in the form of threats of nuclear war is Musk allowed Ukraine to use Starlink to pull a Pearl Harbor on Sevastopol. Plus, well, Putin probably also threatened Musk more discretely with assassination if he didn't go along with what Russia wants on some things. Musk is in a position where his own safety is seriously threatened by angering foreign heads of state with massive intelligence networks. If I was Musk, I'd be hiring a lot of food testing equipment and maybe even paying for a few body doubles who can be trusted, till Putin is out of power.

3) Tied to 2: Genuine fear of nuclear war wiping out our chance of reaching the stars before he can get a self-sufficient civ going on Mars. This cannot be overstated in his worldview; a chunk of Ukraine getting bitten off by Russia is preferable to even getting close to maybe nukes coming out, regardless of geopolitical implications/long term impacts on the security of NATO.

4) At times too trusting a nature towards people grifters/influencers who do not have his best interest in mind, and a blind spot when it comes to Tucker Carlson.

There is a reason you do not see Zelensky of higher Ukrainian officials making to much hay over Musk at this point, even if some of the haters still view him as a 'traitor' to Ukraine. An exaggeration that is not helpful to Ukraine's overall situation, but something I can understand they feel given it is the Ukrainians dying because in their view Musk is denying them the means to shorten the war by removing the Black Sea fleet all at once.

Personally, I think Musk needs to start trying to figure out how to make it to Mars even if nukes come out, and start accepting he cannot personally keep conflict or nuclear war from happening, even if he wishes to.
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Does anyone else feel like Russia is about to open a second front in their war against anyone that disagrees with them?

The Russians actually have a huge well trained and experienced airborne/paratrooper component so honestly I could see them pulling this off. They pulled off a similar operation in Crimea afterall. Just engage in a flurry of decapitating missile strikes, move in with heliborne paratroopers to seize the airfields and establish an air bridge for reinforcements to flood in.

Armenia would be screwed I feel unless there has been some recent changes to the Russian VDV that hasn't been mentioned yet... :sneaky:
 

Marduk

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Does anyone else feel like Russia is about to open a second front in their war against anyone that disagrees with them?
Makes me wonder if they will... Or they will do it sequentially as a face saving excuse.
"We had to abandon Ukraine to defend Armenians from another genocide and get a new region or three in the process" sounds much better than "we had to abandon Ukraine because the glorious Russian military got its ass kicked and couldn't hold it".
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Don't you just love it how a small group of people here have to turn everything into "muh russia" and spam bullshit pro-Ukraine sources with no context and no link to the original articles?

I certainly don't.

In any case, being friendly with Azerbaijan and the other Turcic countries in the area that sympathize with it is better for Russia than wasting resources on Armenia, whose government is pretty much pro-Western and anti-Russian right now.

Adding places like Azerbaijan to the BRICS/SCO and back into the CSTO would be a more profitable outcome for them than throwing away resources at Armenia.
If I were Putin I'd actively try to stuff the Armenians down the West's throats, then let them bloviate and further worsen their relationships with Turkey, Azerbaijan and a bunch of other *stans in the area.
 

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
The Armenians will get to elect their regional governor, right? Right?
Probably not.

At best they will be treated like the rest of Azerbaijani citizens. Like shit.
Does anyone else feel like Russia is about to open a second front in their war against anyone that disagrees with them?
There is been speculation for that in the past year and hasn't happened yet.
Don't you just love it how a small group of people here have to turn everything into "muh russia" and spam bullshit pro-Ukraine sources with no context and no link to the original articles?

I certainly don't.

In any case, being friendly with Azerbaijan and the other Turcic countries in the area that sympathize with it is better for Russia than wasting resources on Armenia, whose government is pretty much pro-Western and anti-Russian right now.

Adding places like Azerbaijan to the BRICS/SCO and back into the CSTO would be a more profitable outcome for them than throwing away resources at Armenia.
If I were Putin I'd actively try to stuff the Armenians down the West's throats, then let them bloviate and further worsen their relationships with Turkey, Azerbaijan and a bunch of other *stans in the area.
Holy fucking Christ @Agent23 not even Zachowon made my blood boil like you just did! Fucking hell.
You do know that once the Turks are done with the Caucasus one of their next targets is either Greece or Bulgaria?
You do know that either the Greeks or the Bulgarians are the ones that could be on the chopping block?
The vast strategic "utility" Turkey could have is outweighed by their Neo-Ottoman aspirations and the fact that even liberals there deny there has been a genocide at all, the same kind of folks that would say that the Ottoman empire did only good things.


The only thing stopping them is they are already miserable and the Turkish lira sucks ass more than the euro and they are dealing with immigration problems from people who come from much more brutal conditions than them.

But thrust me that if they cannot expand into the Caucasus they will come one way or another into the Balkans.
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Why would Azerbaijan want to join the CSTO a second time? Who are they going to be threatened by? Armenia? Turkey? Iran? Is Russia going to run to Azeri aid if Iran strikes? Laughable.

And what security could bring tied with Russia have for Azerbaijan? India and Armenia have seen firsthand the benefits of deriving large portions of their military procurement from Russia.

Azerbaijan's main export partner is going to be Europe. They're taking advantage of Russian sanctions so they can economically benefit selling stuff to a closer and more wealthy trading partner instead of tying anchor to a Petro rival.

Joining any alliance would be suss but joining the CSTO would be the worst option of the two for the foreseeable future.

And just as Agent23 admitted, Russia in his mind will happily cut off allies it finds no value in.

Gosh who to join... the guys who will abandon you at the slightest inconvenience and refuse to send you billions in promised arms or the guys whose active military support got you to secure all of your Territorial ambitions and economy security in half a decade? :unsure:
 
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Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Probably not.

At best they will be treated like the rest of Azerbaijani citizens. Like shit.

There is been speculation for that in the past year and hasn't happened yet.

Holy fucking Christ @Agent23 not even Zachowon made my blood boil like you just did! Fucking hell.
You do know that once the Turks are done with the Caucasus one of their next targets is either Greece or Bulgaria?
First off, while the Turks and other Turcic descended countries are close, they are not a unified entity.
Second, Turkey has lots of problems and is overstretching itself even now.
Third, even if what you describe was to happen, they are primarily fucking with Greece, and I have zero problem with that.
I'd eagerly let them through to take Serbia, Macedonia and fucking Romanian, too.

Between the energy they would have to spend on the Greeks and the other rpeoblems they have in the area, they will probably turn themselves into pariahs in the eyes of their old western buddies, and become over reliable on Russia and China, who will leech them and fuck them over because of conflicting interests in the near East and central Asia.
You do know that either the Greeks or the Bulgarians are the ones that could be on the chopping block?
The vast strategic "utility" Turkey could have is outweighed by their Neo-Ottoman aspirations and the fact that even liberals there deny there has been a genocide at all, the same kind of folks that would say that the Ottoman empire did only good things.

See above, and yes, I am painfully aware of the atrocities of the Ottoman empire around here, going for 500 years.

However, the Greeks and the Serbs have fucked us over for longer, and more recently.

I will be playing the woels's smallest Tambura, aka Dombra, for them.
And the ancient Bulgars were Turcic, to begin with.
The only thing stopping them is they are already miserable and the Turkish lira sucks ass more than the euro and they are dealing with immigration problems from people who come from much more brutal conditions than them.
Never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake.
But thrust me that if they cannot expand into the Caucasus they will come one way or another into the Balkans.
They are overstretched already, any involvement in the Caucasus will stretch them further and make them absolutely dependant on countries thet are their direct competitors in the area.

Sticking their noses into the Balkans is an insult on top of an injury, but I do hope you are right.
Them giving the Greeks a nice shacking before they go down will be lovely, and we should greet them with Baklava and lokum, they were our most reliable ally during the Balkan wars. Oh, and it is fsr more likely they start something with Greece, since the line of contact is so much broader and closer, places like the Dodecanese islands and Cyprus are part of it. :cool:
 
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Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
I'm always impressed with the sheer stoicism and strength of the Russian spirit, especially in times of crisis.



You can't let these temporary setbacks get you down. Maybe it won't take three days... maybe it'll take a little longer.

I'll be honest I did LOL when I saw that arrow through the heart emoji. That had layers of substance in a single icon.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Probably not.

At best they will be treated like the rest of Azerbaijani citizens. Like shit.

There is been speculation for that in the past year and hasn't happened yet.

Holy fucking Christ @Agent23 not even Zachowon made my blood boil like you just did! Fucking hell.
You do know that once the Turks are done with the Caucasus one of their next targets is either Greece or Bulgaria?
You do know that either the Greeks or the Bulgarians are the ones that could be on the chopping block?
The vast strategic "utility" Turkey could have is outweighed by their Neo-Ottoman aspirations and the fact that even liberals there deny there has been a genocide at all, the same kind of folks that would say that the Ottoman empire did only good things.


The only thing stopping them is they are already miserable and the Turkish lira sucks ass more than the euro and they are dealing with immigration problems from people who come from much more brutal conditions than them.

But thrust me that if they cannot expand into the Caucasus they will come one way or another into the Balkans.
Maybe he remembers when Bulgaria was a powerhouse when under Ottoman rule.

But I wonder what will happen with Turkey now in this situation.
Will Russia move into thier sphere of influence with Armenia?
Would be interesting to see if Russia does invade
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Azerbaijan would be more afraid of destabilizing the reason, being caught in a quagmire or alienating its Turkish and Israeli backers and disapproval of the international trading partners in violating Armenian territory then whatever threats Russia could provide even via the CSTO IMHO. And if Russia ain't going to do anything, none of the other CSTO members will.
 

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
Azerbaijan would be more afraid of destabilizing the reason, being caught in a quagmire or alienating its Turkish and Israeli backers and disapproval of the international trading partners in violating Armenian territory then whatever threats Russia could provide even via the CSTO IMHO. And if Russia ain't going to do anything, none of the other CSTO members will.

I do not think they are in the "afraid" of alienating anyone considering what they are doing to the corpses of civilian victims as we speak.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
I do not think they are in the "afraid" of alienating anyone considering what they are doing to the corpses of civilian victims as we speak.
Yeah, much of Yurup became dependent on Azeri gas because of a certain geopolitical situation we are having...you know, that one that has containment threads on here.
Worst case solution, China/Turkey/someone else will buy it and "launder" it.
 

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