Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[LordsFire]

Russia went from being a feared Military Power to a Laughing Stock Military Power in less than a year.

It's what happens when you don't even realize that you're bluffing, but someone else calls said bluff anyways.

 

[Megadeath]

Russia went from being a feared Military Power to a Laughing Stock Military Power in less than a year.

Uhm, akshualy I think you'll find they're rightly feared more than ever before my cutsie-poopsie muffin. I have a news article from some random reporter in Angola, an official release from the russian MoD, and a quote from Zelensky (Ignore the ellipsis!) to prove it.

 

[planefag]

I'm definitely flattered, but unfortunately I prefer women and not catching AIDs from the likes of you.

Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones. 😏

Russia and China, with the U.S. only having one successful test so far. Would you like to try again, or should I already accept this is just a lot of bark and no bite from you?

Are you perhaps referring to the mythic Zircon, the much-announced, much-ballyhooed Russian scramjet missile of which we have yet to see a single actual video that clearly shows an actual Zircon in flight, doing The Thing? Yeah, I'm sure the country currently getting its ass kicked up between its shoulderblades by a country 1/3rd its size and GDP totally did The Thing, they totally stole the march on the world's aerospace tech leader despite their chronic inability to build a jet engine newer than 1980's tech without stealing from the West or a carrier fighter that doesn't break every fucking time it traps. Lol. Lmao, even.

Of course if you have any actual links or evidence to back up your horseshit claims I'd love to see them.

Thank you for contradicting your own argument, in that this is to concede the U.S./NATO advantage is not overwhelming;

In what context? It's not worth it for NATO to wipe out Russia in exchange for even 1% of its population, given its qualitative superiority. But when Russia starts threatening its existential survival, the math changes very quickly.

it's too dependent on the specific political contexts therein

By "political" I think you mean "strategic."

It also does pass the common sense test of why Russia would continue to sign an unfavorable treaty

Is it unfavorable? Allow me to remind you that Russia has less GDP than Canada. In short, the START treaty is the modern equivalent of the Washington Naval Treaty of 1922; whilst some Japanese admirals chafed at the injustice of it, others wisely pointed out that the treaty limited the enemy advantage to simply three-to-one, whereas their unmitigated strength would easily and handily produce a six-to-one advantage (as was proven in the actual Pacific War.) Look up competetive vs. comparative advantage. If you went to a decent high school you learned that lesson at some point.

Lots of cute words and delusions, immediately followed by the U.S. showing how all of that is completely wrong with them directly rejecting Ukraine's membership:

Do you have a link to an actual news source quoting an actual press release by an actual national government, as opposed to some literally fucking who on Twatter providing no links to anything?

Not that it actually matters, I mean. Because rubber stamps on paper documents count for far less than "warheads on foreheads," as have been delivered by Western Excalibur shells, HIMARS rockets and HARM missiles. Paperwork is all fine and good, but kills win wars, you know?

If the U.S. and its allies, according to you, has overwhelming nuclear and conventional overmatch, why not? NATO has forces in the region and if they are as great as you say, then there is no reason not to intervene

NATO hasn't intervened? I mean NATO has only managed to scrounge up every last stockpile of NATO-held ComBlock munitions not pre-emptively destroyed by Russian saboteurs in the years preceding to send to Ukraine, and when that finally fell short, sent significant amounts of NATO-bloc (155mm etc.) weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, to say nothing of every MANPAD, ATGM and other weapon system they could lay hands on (jury-rigging HARMs to Ukranian MiG-29s, etc.) In addition the constant hovering RC-135 Rivet Joints and MQ-4's just off the coast of Ukraine - as the Russian field forces communicated with fucking unencrypted Baofeng walkie-talkies - provided and are still providing an unparalleled Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance capability to Ukrainian forces - to say nothing of the NATO AWACS planes that have been airborne almost constantly since this conflict started. You didn't think all those magically exploding Russian ammo depots were found by black magic and seances, did you?

Is this not [/i]intervening?[/i]

And let's not forget -when Putin first started this war, in his opening speech he openly threatened the West and warned them against intervention with a not-so-veiled threat of nuclear retaliation against any Western intervention.

So why would NATO dare send so many weapons, so many bullets, so many munitions that would directly cause the deaths of Russian soldiers and thwart the will of a Great Nuclear Power?

Well, y'see, there's a problem here. If NATO allows Putin to take Ukraine based solely on the fact that "we are a Nuclear Power and will Nuke U if you send Ukrainians shoulder-launched missiles and bullets," then it's a very short distance to "we just marched five men into Poland! Surrender or we END THE WORLD!!!!!11!!1!ONE!!1ZOMGBBW!!1!" The bluff has to be called at some point. And, after decades of being told to unfuck themselves by the US, Russia starting a major land war in Europe was the final wake-up call, the Come To Jesus moment that NATO required to wake up and smell the fucking cannon match.

But! I am making your own arguments for you. For, indeed, if NATO is not intervening, as you claim - please explain why the Russian army is in retreat on every front? As we speak Ukrainian forces are continuing to make rapid gains on both the Kherson and Kharkiv fronts. Even the sycophant Telegram channels you undoubtedly follow with religious fervor have vindicated this; though they claim that the situation is Under Control and that the retreats are Totally Planned, it was not a few months ago that you and your ilk were smugly quoting that line from WWII about how the "reports from the German front were a constant succession of victories moving steadily towards Germany."

So which way is the front line moving now? Super curious. Enlighten me with your insightful commentary.

Indeed, the Pentagon itself is expecting the war to go on for many months, meaning vastly higher losses to the Ukrainian military and civilian population. If NATO could end this quickly, why don't they? They'd get the added prestige bonus of further humiliating Russia, according to you.

YOU GIVE: [thousands of your own soldiers from your own countries, thrown into the cauldron of a modern high intensity war]

YOU RECEIVE: [victory in a war that is already being won by the people whom care about it, that does not directly impact the thousands of soldiers who's families are taxpaying voters in constitutional democracies that are going to die]

YOU DO NOT RECEIVE: [humiliating a bunch of fucking cunts who held the world at gunpoint for over a century based solely on memes of RUSSIA STRONK because being humiliated by a bunch of broke-ass pig farmers handed man-portable weapons by the West is ten times more humiliating than getting your ass kicked by NATO which is precisely why Vatniks are desperately trying to claim that NATO troops are the REAL force behind the advances]

... yea naw fam I think I'm gonna pass on that one.

Very curious, then, that they don't do that, reject Ukraine's NATO membership and make statements about how they want to avoid war with Russia.

Translation: "we wish to avoid a nuclear war with Russia." But, if NATO was so terrified of nuclear conflict with Russia that they were willing to do ANYTHING to avoid it, why have they been sending such a shit-fuck-ton of ordinance, equipment, and weapons to Ukraine for the past eight months?

No trying is required to effortlessly pick apart your arguments; do better Sweetie.

I have the feeling that you vastly under-estimate the amount of free time I have to spend on petty pissing matches with halfwits.

I think it's adorable how desperate you are for my attention, and it is flattering how much I live in your head rent free, but my girlfriend and work get first dibs. Sorry dear

I double-majored in Journalism and Poli-Sci. I was born to drive Dunning-Kruger test-cases like you before me like cattle before the herders.

You're locked in here with me, motherfucker.

That's a funny way of saying you bitched out replying to my last post, and it's clear to see why you did:

... because some Vatnik claimed - without a shred of fucking evidence - that the Russians "retreated from Lyman" in good order with few casualties? Even if I was to grant him that entirely invented and outsourced claim, that still amounts to Russians running with their asses on fire. And y'know what? I don't. Because when I make claims, I back them the fuck up with obsessive documentation of posted footage - I don't just accept propaganda reels at face value, but go to Google Maps and do my absolute fucking damndest to geolocate the imagery, as well as cross-referencing it with geo-locations done by people far more obsessive and talented than me. I go out of my way to stitch together imagery and actual visual evidence, compare it to open-source data and map knowledge, and assemble a cohesive picture of the battle; so I can understand what it means, what it implies in the context of the larger context.

And you? You quote some fuckhead Russian on Twatter saying "trust me bro."

Lol.

Lmao, even.

No trying is required to effortlessly pick apart your arguments; do better Sweetie.

Nobody else has the patience to deal with your knuckle-dragging, half-wit ass. But in me you have met an autist that is by far your equal.

Let's fucking roll, bitch.

 

[TheRejectionist]

I mean, as long as yall contuine the weapons I don't think thr world actually cares.
I do somewhat hope your country understands that the money it is sending is going to go towards killing a lot of people, civilians included

If we at least saw the actual benefit of selling weapons to Kiev. I would have personally thrown under the bus Zelensky and co. But it Meloni wants to stay in power with their coalition probably it needs to.
I am happy we are going to have heating and electricity.
With my mother's operation for the cancer and my father suing me (so it will be literally an online process) I have now literally stopped giving a fuck about what happened in Ukraine short of an economic-food crisis and nukes.

 

[Megadeath]

-Snip-
I have the feeling that you vastly under-estimate the amount of free time I have to spend on petty pissing matches with halfwits.

I double-majored in Journalism and Poli-Sci. I was born to drive Dunning-Kruger test-cases like you before me like cattle before the herders.
-Snip-

I can not tell you how much I appreciate every one of your posts. I wish I had the time and attention span to do what you do, but I'm glad someone is making more of an effort than me to point these things out. I ran out of fucks to give HL quite a while back and now just randomly shout at him.

 

[planefag]

I ran out of fucks to give HL quite a while back and now just randomly shout at him.

Honestly, the only mistake you're making there is giving the iota of a fuck required to still yell at him instead of laughing. If you can laugh. I think HL's biggest crime is being dull. That type is bad enough on its own but when they're mendaciously boring it's infinitely worse.

However, I am not wise enough to stop wasting my life and as a sperg, I must establish my bona fides as Alpha Sperg. So it goes.

 

[Buba]

That idea they had about using a ship as a bridge support is gonna backfire.

Temporary measure, I'd venture, to support the Russian blitzkrieg, to support the advance of the Ghost Division ...

 

[Bacle]

 

[The Whispering Monk]

No, the smart thing would be...

I quoted this section so you more easily recognize your error when discussing Russia ops.
😉

 

[Tiamat]

I quoted this section so you more easily recognize your error when discussing Russia ops.
😉

Touche.

 

[DarthOne]

Anyone knows if Ukraine plans to cross the border into Russia?

 

[Tiamat]

Anyone knows if Ukraine plans to cross the border into Russia?

If there are plans, they're not talking about it. I stress "IF".

 

[DarthOne]

If there are plans, they're not talking about it. I stress "IF".

I hope for all our sakes that your right…

 

[Tyzuris]

…..a ship.

Ships carry cargo. They are not (usually) designed to be load-bearing supports for concrete-and-steel two-lane bridges. Even if anchored, a ship will drift ever slightly depending on ocean currents. Then you have shifting ocean tides that causes the ship to raise and fall ever so slightly on a regular basis.

No, the smart thing would be to shut down the whole damn bridge and have inspectors go over every inch of the affected area, especially the support columns to make sure those didn't get damaged, weakened, etc.. That can take anywhere from several days to weeks depending on the circumstances. Then comes the fun part with the repairs...and this is just covering the traffic bridge, mind you. They need to analyze the damage to the rail bridge, and will probably need to replace that section of the rails as it looks like they got partially melted and weakened from the intense fire. The same phenomenon happened on 9/11 when the intense fire and heat from the crashed airliners and their fuel caused the metal girders to weaken on the Twin Towers causing the complete collapse. (Please spare any conspiracy BS about that here, take that to another thread.)

What could possibly go wrong here….?


EDIT: A bit more info on the rail bridge before the explosion.



And after:

I fully expect the smoothbrain Ruskies to try to hard-head through this damage to the bridge and still push through trains and trucks which will collapse this entire bridge once and for all. Because as this year has shown, being sensible and being Russian are quite exclusive things from each other. Russian mentality is akin to 40k orks. They think that as long as their willpower is strong enough with the pure spirit of ''Russia Stronk!'' they'll persist through anything. To the moment when a HIMARS rocket blows them to red mist and makes them fertilizer for the next crop of grains grown in Ukraine. Because constant vodka and ''Kreml Russian Stronk!'' - propaganda has turned Russians into smoothbrain morons who think of themselves as lords of the world until a much smaller neighbour kicks the shit out of them making their small brains ache of terrible cognitive dissonance as they have to cope with being a shit mid-tier power with even shittier life quality that has been tanked even further because of their blood-lusted imperialist nationalist grandiose boner for ''Russia Stronk!'' - conquest which has resulteed in sanctions that'll rightfully destroy Russians' economic prospects for generationa to come. Such punishment for them is entirely deserved.

 

[Atarlost]

If there aren't plans then the Urkainian planning staff aren't doing their jobs.

I'm confident they don't plan to invade this year, but if Putin hasn't been couped by the spring campaigning season the war just isn't going to end without one side dictating terms in the other's capital. I'd rather it by Ukraine dictating terms in Moscow.

 

[DarthOne]

If there aren't plans then the Urkainian planning staff aren't doing their jobs.

I'm confident they don't plan to invade this year, but if Putin hasn't been couped by the spring campaigning season the war just isn't going to end without one side dictating terms in the other's capital. I'd rather it by Ukraine dictating terms in Moscow.

Pushing into Russia sounds like a great way to make a lot of people into smoldering, radioactive husks.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

I expect Ukraine to go into Crimea as well as attempt isolate Russia from the neighboring coastlines.

 

[DarthOne]

I expect Ukraine to go into Crimea as well as attempt isolate Russia from the neighboring coastlines.

I really hope you are wrong.

 

[Bacle]

Anyone knows if Ukraine plans to cross the border into Russia?

Depends on what you define as 'the border' and 'crossing it'.

Ukraine isn't going to march on Moscow or St. Petersburg. However, they also won't let Russia fire across the 2014 border without attempting to neutralize the unit's doing so.

I expect Ukraine to go into Crimea as well as attempt isolate Russia from the neighboring coastlines.

I really hope you are wrong.

Ukraine want's it's 2014 borders back, and it has the ability to get that thanks to the weapons it has now.

All that has to happen for fighting to end is for Russia to leave Ukraine and stop firing across the 2014 borders.

Russian troops are going to be removed from all the lands they have illegally occupied in Ukraine.

 

[WolfBear]

Depends on what you define as 'the border' and 'crossing it'.

Ukraine isn't going to march on Moscow or St. Petersburg. However, they also won't let Russia fire across the 2014 border without attempting to neutralize the unit's doing so.


Ukraine want's it's 2014 borders back, and it has the ability to get that thanks to the weapons it has now.

All that has to happen for fighting to end is for Russia to leave Ukraine and stop firing across the 2014 borders.

Russian troops are going to be removed from all the lands they have illegally occupied in Ukraine.

Yep, Russia made a huge mistake in not simply taking the Donbass in February of this year, instead preferring to go all-out in an unsuccessful and expensive attempt to conquer all of Ukraine.