Everyone dies when killed. There'd be no propitiation for sin otherwise. Staying dead is another matter.Unless it's Jesus lol!
Everyone dies when killed. There'd be no propitiation for sin otherwise. Staying dead is another matter.Unless it's Jesus lol!
yeah I expected that, like I said the russian's fight until they cant fight anymore.
By historical calcs the Russians are only 20% done and the Ukrainians need to kill a hell of a lot more people to end this. And if Ukraine wins that isn't the end of the war because next the nato countries get attacked. So yeah not fun.
Russia's already at the point they can't really fight anymore...Yeah I expected that, like I said the russian's fight until they cant fight anymore.
By historical calcs the Russians are only 20% done and the Ukrainians need to kill a hell of a lot more people to end this. And if Ukraine wins that isn't the end of the war because next the nato countries get attacked. So yeah not fun.
They can definitely get back in the game if they do a full mobilization. Right now they are fighting only with the people who can be enticed or browbeaten into joining up. It will be a different story if Russia can use all the coercive power of the state to force people into the army.Russia's already at the point they can't really fight anymore...
Their entire northern axis collapsed, their southern axis is pinned down and being run out of what few supplies they have left in Kherson, and the only reason the eastern axis is still even remotely intact is that Ukraine is focusing most of it's efforts on the north and south.
Then chopped his head off with his own sword.Even David managed to defeat Goliath with a stone.
Well, given Ukraine is stealing all of Russia's shit and then using it against its former owners...Then chopped his head off with his own sword.
History does not repeat but it sure does rhyme.Well, given Ukraine is stealing all of Russia's shit and then using it against its former owners...
They can definitely get back in the game if they do a full mobilization. Right now they are fighting only with the people who can be enticed or browbeaten into joining up. It will be a different story if Russia can use all the coercive power of the state to force people into the army.
The thing is, can the government actually leverage that coercive authority effectively?
Estimates are that 20-40% of the forces already active are refusing to fight. Even if it's only half the low end, or ten percent, those are people who (mostly) willingly signed on board.
Putin hasn't been avoiding engaging conscription for no reason. There are historical and cultural reasons to expect the Russian people to react very poorly to attempts to put it into force.
On top of that, it takes time to spin up a conscription program. If the Ukrainians have managed to choke the Russians north of the Dneipr off from effective resupply, that force will probably collapse in a month optimistically, a week or two more realistically.
If that happens, it is entirely possible that Russians will be in a position where both flanks are collapsing, and when morale is already bad enough that integer percentages of your population refuse to fight?
That says that total collapse of the military's willingness to fight is not far away.
All of this combined, basically trying to go for general conscription/mobilization might not make any difference at all.
it was recently revealed by one of their own mouth pieces that they've taken 10,000 KIA between that and the recent Kharkov success:
Based on self admitted casualty rates in the Summer from Ukrainian authorities, that would suggest another 30,000 WIA, PoWs, MIA, etc to the KIA total. So, if we take the official starting figure of 700,000 mobilized for Ukraine, these two recent offensives alone would represent a 6% loss in manpower. On top of the existing estimates I had from July I already linked to, this matches with what I said back in late May/early June of Ukraine being on track to exhaust its manpower in less than a year.
Yep can't read that tweet any other way...
Illia Ponomarenko: Almost 9000 Dead between February and August.
Also Illia Ponomarenko: 10,000 Dead between August and half of September.
Numbers all over the place with that account.
Yes, you really can't take it any other way because the official Ukrainian admitted losses in June was already 10,000. Did the Ukrainians suddenly invent necromancy between then and August to reduce their KIA by 1,000?
Notice also the particular wording; what suddenly made the other 9,000 KIA dying to prove Ukraine could win by losing Severdonetsk and Mariupol? It also fits with the other reports I linked in that post.
Why is that statement:
More official then this statement from the same paper that Illia Ponomarenko works for that you are cited as gospel?
And why is your estimates way higher for April then Illia Ponomareko's were back in April? Your using the citation of up to 11,000 dead in April and Ponomarenko cited only three thousand dead.
Did something change in the reliability of reporting from then and now?
But now your interpreting Illia Ponomarenko is stating that Ukraine has suffered ten thousand dead and forty thousand overall casualties in three weeks, more then doubling the total casualties and eclipsing the previous six months of the War based off of comments made by Arestoyvych "Something like that" while discounting comments made by the Armed Forces of Ukraine of 9000 a month ago?
"Yes something like that" doesn't sound like an official statement of losses beyond an official stating it off the cuff. Doesn't seem like a reliable metric to use, which is probably why (present company excluded ofc) everyone is making "low confidence" estimates.
Russia has 5x the people of Ukraine even before the refugee outflow and 10x its economy prior to February. End result of this is that it is inevitable Moscow wins, and the delusions of people like @LordsFire in this thread are just that.
Finland's position relative to the USSR in 1939-1940 was likewise very bad, but in that war, the Soviet Union only managed a relatively Pyrrhic victory, no?
Also, what about Greece's position relative to Italy in 1940-1941, before the Nazis helped the Italians?
And let's not even mention Israel vs Arab League in 1947...Finland's position relative to the USSR in 1939-1940 was likewise very bad, but in that war, the Soviet Union only managed a relatively Pyrrhic victory, no?
Also, what about Greece's position relative to Italy in 1940-1941, before the Nazis helped the Italians?