Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[gral]

Argentina has the best geography and demographics in south america all they need is 10 years of competent leadership and they will jump from the 26th richest country by GPD into the top 20.

That's the problem. They won't get 10 years of competent leadership, not before the whole shebang collapses. Hell, I doubt they will even get 2 years of competent leadership before that.

Of course, the above is also valid for Brazil and the rest of South America.

 

[Agent23]

their in for a likely civil war/revolution yes.

But the foundations of the country are actually pretty good, compare that to polands geography where your basically in the danger zone.

The climate in Poland is a hell of a lot better, IMHO.
And the location is irrelevant, if the place is mismanaged and on the brink of civil war.
Notice how places as cold as the devil's ass like the Nordics accounted quite well for themselves, and how places with much milder and more agriculturally productive Mediterranean climates have turned themselves into economic shitshows, like Greece, Italy, Spain, a lot of the rest of the MED countries.

Do you understand that 'peacetime production' and 'wartime production' are different things?

Do you understand that if you compare how much ammunition Russia has fired off to their own munition production, you're going to get similar or worse numbers out of it?

Do you have proof the Fat Pig grifters at the US MIC can produce more in wartime than what they produce in peacetime?

Do you understand that there are specific reserve requirements and production quotas and guielines as to how much ammo can be thrown at a particular adversary without that degrading overall warmaking capability, aka a normative for operations?

Oh, yeah, right, you probably don't since as Martyanov said, math is hard, empty rhethoric though, is as easy as anything, and that is all I see coming from you.

Stop spamming random nonsense, your pet proxy is losing and the Russians have a hell of a lot more war making potential and are a lot stronger economically than you thought.

@LTR cleanup on isle 9, more spam for DumbAss.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Do you understand that there are specific reserve requirements and production quotas and guielines as to how much ammo can be thrown at a particular adversary without that degrading overall warmaking capability, aka a normative for operations?

This stands in place at current production levels. If those levels change, all those calcs get redone based on needs of mission and changing production levels.

As for 'normative operations'... I love how the bean counters at the Pentagon like to make shit up like this. Sure you can make up averages based around past battles...but those numbers hardly ever prove out in future ones.

 

[Agent23]

This stands in place at current production levels. If those levels change, all those calcs get redone based on needs of mission and changing production levels.

As for 'normative operations'... I love how the bean counters at the Pentagon like to make shit up like this. Sure you can make up averages based around past battles...but those numbers hardly ever prove out in future ones.

You do relaize that you can't just triple weapons production overnight and have car plants churn out, say, hypersonic missiles, that those components are made because complex supply chains and specially trained staff and component manufacturing processes are involved, right?
If you had actually read through that analysis, which is made by qualified people, you and some other posters wouldn't be posting silly rhetoric.

This is reality, not Red Alert.

Now, can we get back on topic?

I am sick and tired of DebilZov gibberish spilling out of the containment threads into ones I actually care about.

 

[Marduk]

Exactly tracks with my estimates from a month ago. The fact the Ukrainian Defense Minister is also hoping their casualties are under 100,000 at this point should be telling.

If you are trying to imply anything other than the intended meaning of that figure, which includes killed civilians as its bulk, that is also very telling.

 

[History Learner]

If you are trying to imply anything other than the intended meaning of that figure, which includes killed civilians as its bulk, that is also very telling.

Which is stated nowhere in the article, once again, read before you post. It’s a cruel lesson you continuously run into trying to debate me.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

You do relaize that you can't just triple weapons production overnight and have car plants churn out, say, hypersonic missiles, that those components are made because complex supply chains and specially trained staff and component manufacturing processes are involved, right?

Duh...I never stated that increase would instantly happen. Not sure why you even think it was implied.

DebilZov gibberish

wth are you on about? no idea what that even means.

 

[Arch Dornan]

And the UK is a shithole.

It's also slowly stripped piece by piece to what it once was an island.

wth are you on about? no idea what that even means.

Western wartime propoganda against Russia by the MSM?

 

[Marduk]

Which is stated nowhere in the article, once again, read before you post. It’s a cruel lesson you continuously run into trying to debate me.

This isn't a debate, this was a well flagged minefield you just stupidly volunteered into.
So, which is it, more bad reading comprehension or admission of axe grinding?

The number of Ukrainians who have died since Russia invaded Ukraine in February likely stands in the tens of thousands, according to Ukraine's defense minister, who said he "hopes" the figure is below 100,000.

>number of Ukrainians who have died
Not "military losses". Not "casualties". Civilians count as Ukrainians too ya know...

 

[History Learner]

This isn't a debate, this was a well flagged minefield you just stupidly volunteered into.
So, which is it, more bad reading comprehension or admission of axe grinding?

>number of Ukrainians who have died
Not "military losses". Not "casualties". Civilians count as Ukrainians too ya know...

Yes, it’s very much bad reading comprehension and bad math on your end. The almost literally next paragraph after that destroys your argument:

As of June 15, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), recorded 4,452 killed since the invasion, of whom, 280 were children. The eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk -- where Russia's bombardment has been continuous -- saw 2,583 of the recorded total deaths. The OHCHR believes actual figures to be "considerably higher."​

 

[Marduk]

Yes, it’s very much bad reading comprehension and bad math on your end. The almost literally next paragraph after that destroys your argument:

​

As of June 15, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), recorded 4,452 killed since the invasion, of whom, 280 were children. The eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk -- where Russia's bombardment has been continuous -- saw 2,583 of the recorded total deaths. The OHCHR believes actual figures to be "considerably higher."​

Your points are more pitiful than usual and destroy your credibility in ways i could only wish to do myself.

The OHCHR believes actual figures to be "considerably higher."

Your points even question themselves now.
And even if they didn't, it doesn't mean that the context for the quoted 100k figure isn't what i've quoted, while the alternative OHCHR figure, dealing with hard confirmed figures, says nothing of the 100k.

 

[Agent23]

Western wartime propoganda against Russia by the MSM?

More like its eager consumers.
Zov literally means call, like call of the wild.
Debil means retard.
So, call of the retard/call for retards.
And a funny play of words on the Azov battalion.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Western wartime propoganda against Russia by the MSM?

oh....yeah, I don't pay attention to that blather

 

[Arch Dornan]

oh....yeah, I don't pay attention to that blather

Which one? MSM where everyone has to read what they say or alternatives that say other accounts to find half truths?

I find myself doubting the main narrative because I have absolutely no confidence in the Western leadership to fuck Russia up. Bring back the old guard from the grave or a youth change to replace the current ones and I might reconsider.

 

[LordsFire]

Oh, yeah, right, you probably don't since as Martyanov said, math is hard, empty rhethoric though, is as easy as anything, and that is all I see coming from you.

Okay then, tell me what Russia's production numbers are like, and how that compares to their expenditures.

Tell me how it compares to their annual defense budget.

Or is empty rhetoric all that you have?

 

[sillygoose]

The UK actually has some of the best geography in europe.

Its near oil resources, faces the international ocean, has a temperate climate is able to grow its own food and is seperation from the european high way of death and distruction by a moat. Yes they are currently led by morons but so is every western country right now. The UK is in for a rough time (every one is) but the people there will survive.

The UK hasn't produced most of their own food since the 1800s

Okay then, tell me what Russia's production numbers are like, and how that compares to their expenditures.

Tell me how it compares to their annual defense budget.

Or is empty rhetoric all that you have?

They clearly aren't publishing any real numbers on production, as they've exceeded what at the US and UK militaries have publicly stated they were capable of by a huge magin.
Even by the end of April they had fired more than double what the US used in Iraq in 2003:

Iran is learning from Russia’s use of missiles in Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned into the largest testing ground for ballistic and cruise missiles in modern warfare. Militaries around the world are watching carefully, and Iran is certainly no exception. With its military doctrine heavily dependent on ballistic missile forces, Iran has...

www.mei.edu

.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Okay then, tell me what Russia's production numbers are like, and how that compares to their expenditures.

Tell me how it compares to their annual defense budget.

Or is empty rhetoric all that you have?

Well from his same link, though he mysteriously forgot to quote it.

The expenditure of cruise missiles and theatre ballistic missiles is just as massive. The Russians have fired between 1,100 and 2,100 missiles. The US currently purchases 110 PRISM, 500 JASSM and 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually, meaning that in three months of combat, Russia has burned through four times the US annual missile production. The Russian rate of production can only be estimated. Russia started missile production in 2015 in limited initial runs, and even in 2016 the production runs were estimated at 47 missiles. This means that it had only five to six years of full-scale production.

Course recently we had the story of the Russian Forces firing Anti-Ship Missiles at Targets in Civilian Areas which would normally call for precision munitions.

Yeah using Soviet era AntiShip missiles in a Land Attack role.



I guess the radar homing seekers can't lock onto factories as well as Aircraft Carriers at sea. Weird. Apparently only hit the edge of the factory park in question as well.

And the Russian forces have been using a lot of Anti-Ship Missiles, Soviet-era and otherwise for the Land Attack Role which is problematic if you care about accuracy since seeking or homing in on a warship at sea tends to be different from a variety of ground targets.

The other fun thing about the RUSI Analysis is that if you click on the link to the 1100 and 2100 missiles, the source reports (as was widely reported as it was happening on The Sietch Invasion Thread) that:

Russia has fired off more than 1,100 missiles in its ongoing war with Ukraine, according to a US defense official, and over 2,100, according to Ukraine, but many of Russia’s missiles have apparently either failed on launch, malfunctioned in flight, or missed their targets, according to officials familiar with the intelligence.

A US official who spoke with Reuters on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information revealed that US intelligence shows Russia’s day-to-day missile failure rate sometimes exceeded 50% for certain types of precision-guided munitions. Two other officials said the failure rate was sometimes as high as 60%.

And an anonymous US Defense Intelligence Agency official told Newsweek that the US assesses Russian missile success to be at just under 40% overall.

The official told Newsweek that two to three out of every ten missiles that the Russian military fires either fail to launch or fail to reach their targets. Two out of ten experience technical problems in flight, and two to three miss their targets. And some missiles are shot down.

So of those 1100 to 2100 missiles, half apparently suffer various technical issues that prevents them from carrying out their undoubtedly extremely precision strikes. Furthermore the source compares it to the PRSM, JASSM and Tomahawk. The Russian missiles launched have been everything from Iskanders, and Kalibrs, to Tochkas from the Soviet Era. They've included numerous antiship missiles like the Oniks and Kh-22. The United States doesn't even use Ballistic Missiles with their own Transporters and Launchers like Russia does in regards to the Iskanders or whatever.

And are these 1100 to 2100 missiles also including the Kh-31 Anti-Radiation missiles which the US and other NATO countries have comparable amounts of? Are these all missiles or does it include glide bombs? Guided Rockets? Smart Bombs? No idears offered in the analysis. And the United States doesn't use Ballistic Missiles like the Russians do because we use Airplanes that drop Smart Bombs and Smart Missiles on things.

If it is, the United States has built 53,000 JDAM Kits and almost 13,000 Glide Bombs in the past three years and not including anti-radiation and smart missiles similar to the Kh-31. There's also the apparent report that the United States has about 4000 Tomahawk Missiles in its inventory, with hundreds of them being modernized and upgraded to Block V and over 5000 JASSM in the inventory as well.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Found an amusing Account on Twitter:

It's posting words of wisdom from expert Commentators we have all become very familiar with in the leadup and during the prosecution of this Special Military Operation.











And they are open to DM'd Submissions!

 

[Marduk]

They clearly aren't publishing any real numbers on production, as they've exceeded what at the US and UK militaries have publicly stated they were capable of by a huge magin.

Long story short, this says nothing about the size of Russian production, it may aswell be some significant degree of Russia having a massive stockpile of increasingly deeper, older munitions to dig into.
If Russia was running this operation sustainably off ongoing production, there would be no need to import stockpiled ordnance from Belarus, nor use old anti ship missiles in suboptimal land attack mode. Stuff like that implies that a large part of Russia's massive deployment of artillery is not fed by current production, but by pre-1991 production instead.

Belarus sends 20 wagons full of munitions to Russia - News - Nuova Europa

(ANSA)

www.ansa.it

The United States doesn't even use Ballistic Missiles with their own Transporters and Launchers like Russia does in regards to the Iskanders or whatever.

It does have something pretty similar, just confusingly using the same launch platforms as HIMARS/M270, but with different missile container, the missile itself is similar to Tochka in size and launch weight, just with far better performance:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

 

[sillygoose]

Long story short, this says nothing about the size of Russian production, it may aswell be some significant degree of Russia having a massive stockpile of increasingly deeper, older munitions to dig into.
If Russia was running this operation sustainably off ongoing production, there would be no need to import stockpiled ordnance from Belarus, nor use old anti ship missiles in suboptimal land attack mode. Stuff like that implies that a large part of Russia's massive deployment of artillery is not fed by current production, but by pre-1991 production instead.

Belarus sends 20 wagons full of munitions to Russia - News - Nuova Europa

(ANSA)

www.ansa.it

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The Ukrainian General Staff claims lots of nonsense.