• The Sietch will be brought offline for HPG systems maintenance tomorrow (Thursday, 2 May 2024). Please remain calm and do not start any interstellar wars while ComStar is busy. May the Peace of Blake be with you. Precentor Dune

Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Megadeath

Well-known member
Nope, it's not dear. Perhaps you should take the time to read the actual link I'm using instead of citing an entirely different article?
A different article, from the same group, talking about the same list. Hell, you provided plenty enough in your own last post. The figure you've repeatedly held up as Russian losses is specifically not the totality of the Russian losses. Hell, let's go with your own number based on assumptions; Ukrainian losses are 20% higher. So... How does that get you 180,000 down from 190,000 initial Russian forces, in the timeframe you figure (Wild ass guessing with no accounting for... Anything!) will see the larger Ukrainian force completely destroyed?
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
I realized I forgot to reply to this bit, so here you go:


Yeah, that's been raised before, and can quite happily be ignored as meaningless. The idea that they lost 100% of their helicopters and UAVs by April 6th is inconsistent with the fact we've seen them in operation since then. Same for the idea that they've been effectively operating without tanks for 2 months. It's entirely inconsistent with what we've actually seen. Like... The fact that Russia have spent that time losing previously occupied ground and bogged down on their own offensives.
 

History Learner

Well-known member
A different article, from the same group, talking about the same list. Hell, you provided plenty enough in your own last post. The figure you've repeatedly held up as Russian losses is specifically not the totality of the Russian losses. Hell, let's go with your own number based on assumptions; Ukrainian losses are 20% higher. So... How does that get you 180,000 down from 190,000 initial Russian forces, in the timeframe you figure (Wild ass guessing with no accounting for... Anything!) will see the larger Ukrainian force completely destroyed?

A different article from a month ago, meaning its out of date and is not the subject of our current discussion. Furthermore, you're engaging in strawman as usual; the article is about KIA and I've only presented it as such, the only person talking about totality, which would include things like WIA, MIA and PoWs, is you. You're engaging in a strawman argument simply because you can't actually respond to the points made.

As for how I was able to come to say just 180,000 instead of lower, perhaps you should look to your own words:

It ignores that the nature of the conflict has changed dramatically in just the three months it's already run, nor how it might change in future.

As Zelensky, his advisers, his General Staff and the Western media have noted, the war did change and decisively so since March in favor of the Russians. By their own admission, the casualty figures are massively in favor of the Russians now, you've yet to address or respond to that besides obfuscation because you have no retort beyond bluster to hide the total bankruptcy of your argument. There's a reason I can cite lots of articles with actual statics and supporting evidence contained within....and why you've failed to do so. Beyond claims, you have nothing to support your case.

As for "wild ass guessing with no accounting", to ironically paraphrase you once again, is your memory really that bad that you forgot the post I just made and to which you've already responded to? To remind you:

Dear, let's start with something called math instead of you going over the voices in your head, as amused as I am to know I literally do live in your head lol. Median figure for daily Ukrainian losses is 150 KIA a dead and 700 wounded, based on most recent reporting. Let's project out on those losses, from June 1st for six months, or 180 days. Follow along with me if you can:

180 x 150 = 27,000 KIA
180 x 700 = 126,000 WIA

Now let's add those up, we get 152,000 KIA and WIA in six months. That's not including POWs, of which the Russians have taken thousands if not tens of thousands at this point, or MIA, both serious and from desertions which even Ukie sources are acknowledging is happening. Even ignoring all of that, and assuming Ukraine did fully mobilize to 500,000 since February, that means a third of the Ukrainian total armed forces is just gone in six months time from KIA/WIA alone. It gets worse however, so please follow along with me longer if you can.

Modern tooth to tail ratio (combat:support) is between 1:1 to 2.5:1 with the latter being more common for support-heavy Western militaries. Given how Ukraine has been basing its forces on such a model since 2014, let's assume they have a 2:1 model. Which means roughly 170,000 Ukrainian combat troops of all types. Typically in wars such as this, the rate of casualties is 80:20 of combat losses to support cadre losses.

Thus, meaning that the loss rates you dismiss here leave Ukraine with almost no remaining combat troops in six months. Take in note we're not factoring in MIA, PoWs or even Pre-June losses. You may now start coping and seething, as I know you are want to do but that's all you can do because you can't actually argue with any of my points here. Russia is decisively winning now, all the fantastical claims aside of people like you.
 

History Learner

Well-known member
Yeah, that's been raised before, and can quite happily be ignored as meaningless. The idea that they lost 100% of their helicopters and UAVs by April 6th is inconsistent with the fact we've seen them in operation since then. Same for the idea that they've been effectively operating without tanks for 2 months. It's entirely inconsistent with what we've actually seen. Like... The fact that Russia have spent that time losing previously occupied ground and bogged down on their own offensives.

Not at all and you yourself acknowledge this, you're just being schizophrenia at best or willfully obtuse at worst:

No accounting for the attrition of Russian equipment, nor global rearming of Ukraine.

Ukraine could lose that many helicopters and still have helicopters because they are, as you acknowledge, getting resupplied. These two statements are mutually supporting and only become contradictory when you advance the exact argument you're attempting to make:

WARSAW—The Czech Republic has donated attack helicopters to Ukraine, and, along with Slovakia, has allowed Ukraine's military to send dozens of armored vehicles across their borders for repairs, before returning to the conflict, a significant escalation in Western support for the country in its fight with Russia.​
The helicopters—Soviet-designed Mi-24 gunships—were deployed to Ukraine in recent weeks, part of a broader effort to help the country reclaim parity in its own airspace. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin thanked the Czechs for their donation during public comments after a meeting of allied defense officials Monday.​
The gifts make the Czech Republic—which in April became the first NATO country to report donating tanks to Ukraine—the first to give Ukraine attack helicopters as well. The country also donated the majority of the 17,000 anti-tank weapons that NATO allies gave Ukraine during the first two weeks of the war, U.S. and Czech officials said. Its neighbor Slovakia donated an S-300 to help Ukraine reclaim some control over its air space.​

Isn't it crazy in late April we have reports the Ukrainians have lost dozens of helicopters and then in late May we found out the Czechs-at the least-have been supplying them with helicopters for the past few weeks? In fact, the overlap in times correlates perfectly lol.

As for the Russians, cope harder:

(CNN)Russian forces are now in control of most of Severodonetsk, the epicenter of the bloody battle for Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.​
Street fighting continued to rage on Saturday in the eastern city, where Russian soldiers and Ukrainian troops are still locked in battle.​
"The situation remains difficult. Fighting continues, but unfortunately, most of the city is under Russian control. Some positional battles are taking place in the streets," said Serhiy Haidai, the governor of Luhansk region, which makes up Donbas along with the neighboring Donetsk region.​
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
Oryx has proven you wrong history learner.
Right, just like how Ukraine captured so many Russian tanks they had double the number the started the war with? But now are begging a heap of everything:

Adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Official Telegram page: http://t.me/M_Podolyak

If Oryx were right, why does Ukraine need all of that and is still losing in the Donbass? Why isn't Russia begging for peace? You believe Bellingcat too that Russia ran out of ammo and equipment back in April?
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Right, just like how Ukraine captured so many Russian tanks they had double the number the started the war with? But now are begging a heap of everything:



If Oryx were right, why does Ukraine need all of that and is still losing in the Donbass? Why isn't Russia begging for peace? You believe Bellingcat too that Russia ran out of ammo and equipment back in April?

Because more tanks is always better
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
-Snip-
As for the Russians, cope harder:

(CNN)Russian forces are now in control of most of Severodonetsk, the epicenter of the bloody battle for Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.​
Street fighting continued to rage on Saturday in the eastern city, where Russian soldiers and Ukrainian troops are still locked in battle.​
"The situation remains difficult. Fighting continues, but unfortunately, most of the city is under Russian control. Some positional battles are taking place in the streets," said Serhiy Haidai, the governor of Luhansk region, which makes up Donbas along with the neighboring Donetsk region.​
Lol, yeah... Down from "Russia will take Kiev in the first week." to "Russia will cut off the entire Ukrainian army in an eastern pocket." to "Russia planned things this way so they could turn the entire Donbas into a cauldron and wipe out the best of Ukrainian forces." to "Russia will surround Severodonetsk and trap a significant force there." to "Oh yeah? Well, by throwing men into a meat grinder Russia have eventually, almost taken the city through direct, frontal fighting."

But sure, it's everyone else dealing cope.
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, intelligence report reveals

Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.

A report by Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials also reveals that the Ukrainians are facing huge difficulties responding to Russians shelling with their artillery restricted to a range of 25 kilometres, while the enemy can strike from 12 times that distance.

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.

At the same time, as the Russians capture territories in the east, and consolidate their control over the seized cities of Mariupol and Kherson, the bargaining position of the Ukrainian government is being weakened by acute disparity in the numbers of prisoners being held by each side.

The total number of Russian soldiers being held by Ukraine has fallen to 550 from 900 in April after a series of exchanges. Moscow meanwhile has more than 5,600 Ukrainian troops in captivity, the figure enlarged by the surrender of 2,500, including members of the Azov Battalion, in Mariupol.

Original report:

Turns out y'all been believing fictional reports about Ukraine's situation.
 
Last edited:

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
If you consider the Independent an unspecified source that's on you.

Not sure if your being stupid or just being obtuse by strawmanning again but I'm assuming the latter.

But I'll try and make it easier to comprehend.

I wasn't quoting the Independent. I was quoting you making allegations against Strawmen believing unspecified sources/reports. :p
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
Not sure if your being stupid or just being obtuse by strawmanning again but I'm assuming the latter.

But I'll try and make it easier to comprehend.

I wasn't quoting the Independent. I was quoting you making allegations against Strawmen believing unspecified sources. :p
:rolleyes: Try to write more clearly and we won't have misunderstandings. You can claim strawman all you want, but given that you spam this thread with twitter propaganda your post history betrays your claims.
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
:rolleyes: Try to write more clearly and we won't have misunderstandings. You can claim strawman all you want, but given that you spam this thread with twitter propaganda your post history betrays your claims.

Go on...

And be specific. I want to know what was specifically countered by what you quoted in the Independent article.
 
Last edited:

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
An MG3 needs a barrel replacement after about 15 seconds of continuous fire.

EDIT: An MG3 ain't gonna do what a crew-served water-cooled WWI-era machine gun was gonna do: "sit there and fire all day".
A barrel change is quick.
Plus you don't ever use sustained fire in modern combat.

Do you know anything about how modern combat works?
 

bintananth

behind a desk
A barrel change is quick.
Plus you don't ever use sustained fire in modern combat.

Do you know anything about how modern combat works?
A bit.

Full-auto is suppressive fire. You aren't expected to hit anything. You're just supposed to prevent return fire.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top