Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[planefag]

So, no difference at all from all American sources in the past decades when they talk about WMDs for example? Because, let's be frank - the US has an even worst reputation.

Why doesn't he at least link the screenshot of this "SunCalc" website?

 

[Zachowon]

Am I the only one that remembers all yhe Pro Russians were like "Kiev falls within a week, 3 days minimum"
Now...
Looks like even Kherson will fall

 

[Megadeath]

Am I the only one that remembers all yhe Pro Russians were like "Kiev falls within a week, 3 days minimum"
Now...
Looks like even Kherson will fall

Yeah, it's been fun and instructive to go back through the two ukraine war threads and see how things have stood up. I've come to the conclusion that @Agent23 for example couldn't predict the weather an hour in advance in the sahara.

Putin stating the obvious via understatement. His counter-economic sanctions will be swift and requiring all Russian exports to be paid in Rubles is the next step.

Swift? Uh, mate, it's already past the point where that would be accurate. As for demanding payment in Rubles, how's that working so far and what makes you think it won't just lead to even less trade for the genocidal kleptocracy?

 

[PsihoKekec]

Especially when the claimer is using telegram.

And why is Telegram worse than Twitter and legacy media? Just because some use it for propaganda for their side it doesn't make it worse than propaganda for your side.

 

[Agent23]

Yeah, it's been fun and instructive to go back through the two ukraine war threads and see how things have stood up. I've come to the conclusion that @Agent23 for example couldn't predict the weather an hour in advance in the sahara.


Swift? Uh, mate, it's already past the point where that would be accurate. As for demanding payment in Rubles, how's that working so far and what makes you think it won't just lead to even less trade for the genocidal kleptocracy?

Aww ain't that cute, the Ukraineboo/Blobboo is pissed because his precious Elenski regime is getting slowly strangled to death and has to lash out by through old posts and try and make pathetic attempts at personal attacks against people directly to try and get some "morale boost" and ego stroking.
Now, it is not ego and morale I meant, but I can not say more because it is NSFW and a certain virgin mod and his sockpupets and sycophants here will be pissed off.
Newsflash: Western sanctions and lies do not work, Russia is winning the war, and their counteractions are gonna give you a world of hurt.

Frankly I thought that Russia would send in a lot more troops and use their standard military doctrine, which is shell the shit out of everything, and I overestimated the intelligence of the likes of Zelenski and his neo-nazi and mobster buddies.
One wouldn't really think that they would stoop so low as to use human shields, for example.

They still could have dealt with Kiev, if they had gone for it for real, and not just as a distraction.
And for real in this case means America-style, with the massive bombardment and artillery strikes, and close in air support being called in every time a leaf falls close to an advancing unit.
The Russians were just too humane for that, they still do see themselves and the Uki idiots as one people.

In this place we call Reality the Ukies are losing hard:

Oh, and also your artsy media boyfriend is running out of fuel and repair facilities, since Russia blew those up.

 

[Agent23]

Exceedingly questionable numbers, seems like the so-called “data team” just resorted to bloating claims made by both Ministries of defense against each other to the max and calling it detailed research.

Well, they are aggregating all media and official claims, so this is the best we will probably get for the moment.
If anything IMHO they are overly-generous to the Ukies, since they take their numbers at face value.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

I mean, given that you Vatniks of this thread were saying "Russia would never invade" soon followed by "it's all going according to plan! Ukraine will fall in fifteen days. Suck it globalists", I think we can safely dismiss everything you say. You lot could not have gotten it more wrong throughout this entire mess.

 

[SchrodingersWehraboo]

I mean, given that you Vatniks of this thread were saying "Russia would never invade"

Because in the current discourse, anyone who learned from Covid probably took away that “assume the opposite of what the media and ‘experts’ claim” is the most useful heuristic to operate on. Therefore when the same people who lied about C19, danced around lab leak theory, and said vaccines were the greatest thing since sliced bread say a war in Ukraine is afoot, it would’ve seemingly been safe to assume that it was just more scaremongering distraction tactics.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Because in the current discourse, anyone who learned from Covid probably took away that “assume the opposite of what the media and ‘experts’ claim” is the most useful heuristic to operate on. Therefore when the same people who lied about C19 and said vaccines were the greatest thing since sliced bread say a war in Ukraine is afoot, it would’ve seemingly been safe to assume that it was just more scaremongering distraction tactics.

So unreservedly trust Russian State Media instead? You lot's knee jerk contrarianism has totally cost you your credibility. You surely understand that?

 

[Agent23]

That's about 8-9% of the Russian military just for those two cities. (3% when the reserves are included)

Mariupol is probably the easier nut to crack.

Not really, Mariupol was Azov's stronghold, it was probably a very hard nut to crack because of the fanaticism and political connections those scumbags had, but eviscerating them was an important strategic, political and propaganda victory.
Some of these subhuman degenerate nazi thugs have been sent throughout the Ukrainian army as sort of commissars to keep the regular soldiers from surrendering.
Once they are thoroughly exterminated and the images of their charred bodies and videos of their comrades saying Ahmad Sila filter through the leftovers, well, I think desertions will pick up massively.

I mean, given that you Vatniks of this thread were saying "Russia would never invade" soon followed by "it's all going according to plan! Ukraine will fall in fifteen days. Suck it globalists", I think we can safely dismiss everything you say. You lot could not have gotten it more wrong throughout this entire mess.

Told you, I underestimated the stupidity and blatant disregard for civilian life and property damage the Zelenski regime had.
Now it looks like the guy is more afraid of his puppeteers and the neonazis than he is of the Russians.

 

[SchrodingersWehraboo]

So unreservedly trust Russian State Media instead? You lot's knee jerk contrarianism has totally cost you your credibility. You surely understand that?

Who said anything about trusting Russian media? Literal Dem talking point, false dichotomy. This is about staying aloof of MSM lies and thinking for oneself. Of course this time the prevailing assumptions about how they frame things were wrong in this case, yeah. And the matter of credibility? On a small anonymous forum? Seems like overthinking to me.

 

[Agent23]

Who said anything about trusting Russian media? Literal Dem talking point, false dichotomy. This is about staying aloof of MSM lies and thinking for oneself. Of course this time the prevailing assumptions about how they frame things were wrong in this case, yeah. And the matter of credibility? On a small anonymous forum? Seems like overthinking to me.

They are using various media sources and official releases from both the Russian and Ukie MoDs, the idea probably being that an average of the pure numbers would be somewhere closer to the truth than taking individual sources and listening to their outright blatant lies or lies of omission.

So probably as good as we will get unless somebody goes to Ukraine to go count wrecks directly.

 

[paulobrito]

So probably as good as we will get unless somebody goes to Ukraine to go count wrecks directly.

And identifying them correctly. And even with that, several hardware is common on both sides, and right now is known that captured equipment is re-used, again by both sides, so getting accurate numbers is going to be a nightmare.

 

[Agent23]

And identifying them correctly. And even with that, several hardware is common on both sides, and right now is known that captured equipment is re-used, again by both sides, so getting accurate numbers is going to be a nightmare.

Exactly, so averaging out all the half-truths and lies gets us a bit closer to the truth.

 

[Megadeath]

Exactly, so averaging out all the half-truths and lies gets us a bit closer to the truth.

It gets us a number that's literally complete nonsense! If your "detailed analysis" and clever strategies produce a result that's physically impossible, you don't say "Oh, well it's the best we can do and it's probably close." you throw out the methodology and start again from the beginning. Attempting to alter the narrative and explain away results that don't match your hypothesis is the exact opposite of critical thinking.

Do you at least acknowledge that you've had to repeatedly and dramatically adjust your position? I mean, half of what you say contradicts itself! "Russia are strenuously avoiding civilian casualties and infrastructure... HAHA, LOOK AT ALL THE UKIE SCUM DEAD IN THE RUINS OF MARIUPOL!"

 

[Marduk]

I just remembered something about that Russia committed something around 40,000-50,000 troops at Ukrainian Capital front while there are about 40,000 at Mariupol. What does Mariupol have that seems to be more important than Kiev aside from the alleged Neo-Nazi battalion operating there? I think the Capital have around 10 times the population than Mariupol and presumably proportional amount of defenses.

"Muh nazis" do not matter outside of the propaganda layer.
What really matters is the location of Mariupol on the map. Kiev was supposed to be the crown of ambitious maximum plan. Grab it by shock and total surprise, install puppet government, rubberstamp everything Russia wants. Didn't work, sucks but there are still less ambitious plans to fulfill to claim victory and get something out of the mess. Like a land corridor from Russia's mainland to Crimea, that's something nice to landgrab. And Mariupol is in the way.

 

[paulobrito]

Exactly, so averaging out all the half-truths and lies gets us a bit closer to the truth.

One of the many problems with that is that you start from the point you think that both sides lie at the same level. For example, if Russia inflates the Ukraine losses by 20% and is losses by -10%, but Ukraine inflates Russian losses by 50% and is losses by -40% (or the other way around), your result is crap. Garbage in, garbage out.
The fact his - with so many lies from both sides, only in several years, after the war is finished, we are going to get approximate numbers. Right now? nobody really knows, is all WAGs.

 

[Agent23]

It gets us a number that's literally complete nonsense! If your "detailed analysis" and clever strategies produce a result that's physically impossible, you don't say "Oh, well it's the best we can do and it's probably close." you throw out the methodology and start again from the beginning. Attempting to alter the narrative and explain away results that don't match your hypothesis is the exact opposite of critical thinking.

Do you at least acknowledge that you've had to repeatedly and dramatically adjust your position? I mean, half of what you say contradicts itself! "Russia are strenuously avoiding civilian casualties and infrastructure... HAHA, LOOK AT ALL THE UKIE SCUM DEAD IN THE RUINS OF MARIUPOL!"

Ree some more.

"Muh nazis" do not matter outside of the propaganda layer.
What really matters is the location of Mariupol on the map. Kiev was supposed to be the crown of ambitious maximum plan. Grab it by shock and total surprise, install puppet government, rubberstamp everything Russia wants. Didn't work, sucks but there are still less ambitious plans to fulfill to claim victory and get something out of the mess. Like a land corridor from Russia's mainland to Crimea, that's something nice to landgrab. And Mariupol is in the way.

Polish broken record screeching intensifies, noises are louder and aimed differently, but nothing substantially new is heard.

 

[Agent23]

One of the many problems with that is that you start from the point you think that both sides lie at the same level. For example, if Russia inflates the Ukraine losses by 20% and is losses by -10%, but Ukraine inflates Russian losses by 50% and is losses by -40% (or the other way around), your result is crap. Garbage in, garbage out.
The fact his - with so many lies from both sides, only in several years, after the war is finished, we are going to get approximate numbers. Right now? nobody really knows, is all WAGs.

Well, I doubt that either side can inflate their numbers by too much.
Also, remember that some close calls might be reported as kills through no fault of the reporting side.
So yeah, this averaged out guesstimate is probably better than nothing, but the final numbers and the postmortem will have to come after the war.
personally I find the stuff the Russian MoD is putting out mostly credible, but then again I am a "vatnik Russiaboo" and too lazy to go through their daily briefings.
In any case, I am not going to go into full on autism mode where those numbers are concerned.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Ree some more.

Where's the ree? You lot have been consistently wrong throughout this whole mess, ergo, methodology is faulty.

Polish broken record screeching intensifies, noises are louder and aimed differently, but nothing substantially new is heard.

Probably because he's exasperatedly repeating the same facts over and over again, but you are not listening. If anything you're refusing to listen because I don't think you want to countenance the idea you were wrong and batted for some awful people in the process.