I have been calling world War 3 is around the corner for years at this point but I am just a dommsaying war monger.Replying to @The Original Sixth here since this is the thread for chewing the fat on the war and his post will probably be moved here.
I've seen this take often, and it's wrong. The funny thing is, it's not actually incorrect. What you fail to account for is that "outdated trash" describes most of Russia's equipment entire! Ukraine is, funnily enough, in much the same situation as Russia, in that they are very much capable of building new, cutting-edge weapons, but they just can't afford to buy a lot of them. (Ukraine housed much of the Soviet Union's most advanced arms industries and, in fact, was still Russia's primary supplier for military electronics until Russia attacked them in 2014. This set their military modernization timetable back by five to ten years, depending on who you ask, because they had to spin up domestic industry to replace the lost imports.) So the bulk of both armies' forces are, in fact, old-ass tanks. For instance, even the T-90 is just an upgraded T-72 (and according to some, not a very good one.)
However it should be said that every army on Earth uses a lot of old gear. Hell, even the United States is still using an awful lot of equipment that was made in the 1980s (or earlier; the B-52 being the stand-out legend here.) This is because 1. that equipment is already paid for and 2. a great deal of a weapon system's effectiveness comes from supposedly "soft factors" like fire control, radio/datalinks, sensors (thermal/night vision etc.) and survivability upgrades like fire suppression systems. Plus, an awful lot of very important upgrades are literally "bolt-on" in nature even for new production vehicles, like ERA blocks and active protection systems. And it's usually cheaper (though not always) to add this equipment to an already existing tank, as you have to pay for the expensive electronics either way, but if you upgrade instead of building new, you don't have to pay for a whole new tank as well. Now you typically can't upgrade the armor itself (sometimes you can, depending on the design!) but you can definitely upgrade everything else.
This is why you see me and others in the news thread kekking our asses off every time you see an old T-72A show up in Ukraine. The majority of tanks being lost are pretty modern T-72 variants. The T-72A is the original, completely un-upgraded tank. This is also why the Ukrainians use T-64s for their two operational tank brigades, even though they have enough T-72s kicking around to outfit two brigades (in fact, the third and fifth brigades do use T-72s exclusively, but they're reserve brigades!) It's because Ukraine just has a lot more T-64s inherited from the Soviet Union. I mean, T-72s were even built at the Malyshev tank factory in Kharkiv! But there's little enough difference between the older T-72s they have and the T-64s that, after upgrades, either tank will be about as good, and still have the same problems innate to any Russian tank design. So it makes sense to standardize on the hull they have the most spares of for active, operational units, and if the reserves are going to be stuck with older tanks and less upgrades, well, if you're close to baseline, you pick the better baseline.
All of the above logic applies to Russia, as well. Remember, they have the GDP of Canada. There's a reason we haven't seen a single T-14 Armata in Ukraine. Cost-efficiency is a very important concept; even Americans care about it when circumstances force us to. So the losses they're suffering in Ukraine are not trivial.
Russia's active military numbers include a vast number of conscripts doing their one-year service. It's about 1/3rd of the military at any given time. That's why they use these "Battalion Tactical Groups." One battalion out of every regiment is manned entirely by conscripts, so they send the battalions manned by actual "contract" soldiers (i.e. volunteers that are paid and sign a contract for a term of service just like in most Western armies.) To make up the difference in firepower they're given all the artillery support assets of the entire regiment, so they're even more artillery and vehicle heavy than normal Russian/Soviet doctrine. These guys are important; they're the core of the army. Russia is actually forbidden by law to deploy conscripts off Russian soil and the domestic backlash for dead conscripts is so high even the dictatorial state has to worry about it.
Also consider the cost in expertise. Russia is losing a lot of higher-ranking officers. They've lost two engineering officers that I've seen who were slain by artillery while the pontoon bridges they were overseeing the set-up of were struck. Same for vehicle crewmen. Infantry is a tough job. But you don't need to be a genius to be a rifle custodian. You do need a little more smarts to crew or command a tank, and even with Russian tanks having lower crew requirements, the way they tend to violently explode when hit means crew losses are high. Crew are significantly more valuable than the tanks they ride; even if it's an expensive Western tank. Training takes a lot of money and time, and it's not always easy to find smart people to fill certain roles.
The last time we had this go-around, Trump offered Europe American natural gas. When leftists aren't deliberately sabotaging our energy production sector, we can absolutely make enough to supply Europe. And when we don't have a simpering, senile puppet in the Oval Office, OPEC does return our calls, because when we are not cutting the throat of our own energy sector when the Saudis go "if you want more gas, sell us more JDAMs," we say "we need the gas less than you need new F-15 engines. Call us back when you feel like having an air force again."
And guess what Germany did two weeks ago, after years of refusing everyone, even Trump? They signed a deal to build a natural gas terminal, to receive shipments of natural gas off of LP tanker ships. Sweden and Finland are very likely to join NATO in the future as public opinion has swung hard in its favor for the first time due to Russia's invasion. And I got news for you, my dude - Russia was always going to team up with China. In case you haven't noticed, their conventional combat power has been proven to be a hollow joke of what we thought it was, and China already has everything of military value Russia could sell them. Arms are the only real high-tech export industry they have. And despite that, China can't even reverse-engineer the things Russia sold them; they reverse-engineered the SU-33, which pissed off Russia because they were hoping to make bank selling them more, then had to come crawling back because their knockoff turbofans kept failing and dropping their fancy new carrier fighters into the drink. What can Russia sell China they aren't already? Oil? Already done. Food? Already done. Tech? Already done and anything China could then make itself has been. I'll remind you we've played this game before with an iron curtain bisecting world economies between superpower blocs - it was called the Cold War. And we are not the ones who's economies failed so utterly that our superpower state collapsed under its own weight.
As for India, they have to play nice with Russia because Russian equipment defines like 80% of their TO&E. Refer to everything I said above about how expensive military gear is. Then factor in that when you have to buy enough new equipment for a whole army, even replacing the damned rifles is heinously expensive. People said this same shit about "dividing allies" back when the sanctions against nations that buy military equipment from Russia went through. I pointed it out myself to hate-crazed people screaming about Russia because ORANGE MAN! And guess what? India got their waiver. As fucking retarded as our aristocrats can be, even they realize that India being on our side against China is incredibly valuable and it doesn't really matter what they shoot at China as long as they have something to shoot at all! Plus we're weaning India off Russian supply by offering them nice deals on shiny new Western equipment that makes Russia's best tech look like fucking tonka toys. Indian arms purchases from Russia, while still 49% of their buying, is falling precipitously compared to what it used to be. Instead of punishing India for something they cannot help, we're seeing a business opportunity. And since India's domestic arms industry is a rising star, with great potential hobbled by chronic problems, they have been very happy to engage in defense industrial cooperation with the West. The West in general is an aerospace and military tech leader; we have lots of things to teach them. And China is breathing down India's neck very hard these days.
So chill with the doomposting, my dude. Russia's invasion has done what North Korea and China could not - scare the shit out of the Western world and force them to acknowledge the reality that history has not ended and they had best be ready to fight in the not so distant future. The realization has been dawning slowly in some circles, but too slow; e.g. France's temper tantrum over that submarine contract, despite their efforts to increase naval/military cooperation with India and other regional allies. I don't think China is too happy with Russia right now, because the frog just jumped out of that slow-cooker and is croaking very loudly.
While yes i am a warmongeri am not a doomsayer
So you wanna compare a city that took a month, 2 weeks, and 2 days with only 95 casualties the second time, with the first only having 27 and was 3 weeks....They're attacking Ukraine in February-March which is when off roading is tough. Or have you not hear of the spring thaw?
Glacially? 20% of Ukraine has fallen and the capital is threatened. There is such things as operational pauses to rest and regroup after a major advance. Read up on WW2 to learn some things and realize this is a higher intensity war that than due to technology.
You do realize peer level combat is messy right? This isn't an American style war of raping 3rd world countries for fun and profit.
Ukraine’s Three-to-One Advantage
It’s not technology or tactics that has given Ukrainian fighters their greatest edge.www.theatlantic.com
Remind me how many battles and how long it took for Fallujah to fall against much weaker opposition? Turns out trying to take a city while not killing masses of civilians or suffer crippling losses takes longer than ADHD American attention spans can focus.
The whole Iraq war had far less casualties un its nesrly 20 years then that of the entire special military pperstion of russias...
I thought it would be quick, but once proven wrong I have been on the Ukrainian side.Not really. If your objection to the EU is sovereignty based (like the UK's was, which is why they left it,) I'm not sure why you'd support a regional power that's effectively annexed Belarus and is invading another neighbor in an effort to turn them into a puppet state, too.
When the UK left the EU the EU didn't fucking invade them.
Russian advances on Kyiv have been stalled for close to two weeks now, and the Ukrainians are now taking ground back from them in counterattacks. That's one hell of an "operational pause." Maybe they should've timed their attack better, no? But that'd require a level of competence that has been demonstrably lacking, hence why they're getting their asses whipped by a nation that was supposed to be a lot smaller and weaker than they are.
Over a month, which was, as you said, with a much greater discrepancy of force on both sides. Which means that it's going to take three months for the Russians to take Mariupol, if ever, and by the time they're done the units engaged there will be combat-ineffective from heavy casualties. Which means they're stuck there, kiddo. They ain't going fuckin nowhere. They're never redeploying to the Dontesk line, and given how heavy the fighting around Izyum is, and how many dead naval infatryman are showing up around Izyum and Mariupol in Russian media obituaries, the Russians have committed their last real reserve of trained infantry manpower already. It's fuckin over, kiddo. That 10,000 KIA statistic the Rooksies let slip because "they were hacked" lol right sure, given 200,000 troops total deployed equals about 100,000 frontline troops (the rest are truck drivers etc) and the standard ratio of 1/3rd combat casualties being immediate KIA, that means 30,000ish out-of-action Russian troops, 1/3rd the frontline firepower. Good luck scaring up replacement manpower, Russia! Ukraine has their entire reserve force available, hundreds of thousands, because they're fighting on their home territory whereas Putin would have to deploy conscripts (which he legally can't) and send them to fight for people fighting for their own homeland and families.
I heard all this same fuckin cope when the war started, from the Western ~analysts~ who told everyone Ukraine was going to fall fast. And they were still jerking off over it a week in, insisting on the fAsT rAtE oF aDvaNcE, comparisons to Desert Storm, the whole nine yards. And now they're all really fuckin quiet. As Ukrainian counterattacks begin to encircle that gigglefuck northwest of Kyiv and fighting over Irpin still rages, I notice all that copenick jerking off over "boiled in a cauldron!" has suddenly ceased. Hmm. I wonder why.
Though I figured it wouldn't be easy for the Russians from the get fo