Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Free-Stater 101]

2/3 of the men who served in Vietnam were volunteers. 2/3 of the men who served in World War II were drafted. Approximately 70% of those killed in Vietnam were volunteers.

Chiron please don't goalpost shift. You initially stated that conscripts didnt go to Vietnam and your above information disproves that fact. The argument over how many more of which died either conscripts or volunteer is another matter entirely.

Also...

 

[The Original Sixth]

This is a fight Putin wants very much to avoid as he needs Ukraine relatively intact. Hence the 1st and 2nd Echelons could know nothing till it was too late, because they would have blabbed on social media. Third echelons had more briefings and the VDV and Spetnaz who are more reliable and trusted troops would have had specific briefings a week before hand and officers most likely vacationed as normal citizens in Ukraine a month before hand to scope out their objectives.

Because if Zelensky got any forewarning he considered credible, the UkA would have mobilized its reserves with all their Corps and Army level assets.

Your position is well thought-out, but I find this hard to believe. Simply put, amassing between 100,000 to 200,000 troops on the border of Ukraine, deploying warships to the Black Sea, and positioning troops north of Kiev--is an obvious, obvious indicator that Russia was prepared to use military force. Even when it looked as though the Russians were escalating to de-escalate, we had US and UK intelligence agencies outright coming out and claiming that Russia was amassing for an invasion. They were even laying out Russia's possible (and probable) invasion strategy.

No, I don't think the UKA failed to mobilize because Putin played his hand well. The UKA failed to mobilize because Zelensky is a fucking idiot. He failed to mobilize the UKA in response to the Russian threat, I expect because he didn't want to help feed into any possible Russian false-flag operation that would act as Putin's golden ticket to invade Ukraine with the blessing of the Russians and some Ukrainians. He perhaps thought that if he could avoid flinching, that Putin wouldn't attack, because he would lack the excuse.

Now, I can't speak to military strategy to any strong degree, but I think this is what happened. I think that US and UK intelligence actually did learn what Putin's invasion plan was. With Russia taking chunks away from Ukraine and slowly escalating from there, until it took Kiev. When the West exposed those plans, I think Putin and his generals were put in a tight spot. They couldn't go through with those invasion plans now--but they couldn't turn back either. And the West was not giving into their demands.

So I think what Putin and his generals did was switch gears to a new plan, which involved an all-out assault on Ukraine. Zelensky, who had been convinced through allied intelligence what Putin's invasion plan would be if it came down to a war, did not see the telling signs and not wanting to provoke Russia, did not mobilize the UKA. It looks to me that Putin and his generals then launched an all out attack, hoping to crush and demoralize the Ukrainian forces before they could even mobilize.

I think the result has been a mix. The UKA was not properly mobilized and Russia was able to inflict heavy damage that they might not of otherwise been able to. That said, while the UKA was never properly mobilized in time and suffered heavy losses because of it, I think the UKA did not break as Moscow had hoped. And instead, Kiev is now using social media and some blatant propaganda to counter mobilize widespread resistance to Russian invasion. It's difficult to tell what sort of effect that is having--because Kiev is going to do all that it can to make such a move successful and the West is going to feed into it.

I think what is happening is that the ad-hoc plan that Moscow had used has run its course. It had a mixture of success and failure, so now Moscow is switching to a new plan. I think the danger is that the Russians were not prepared for this sort of attack logistically, which is why everything seems so sloppy right now. The shift in strategy is coming/already in the works, so what happens now is probably going to be even more dangerous.

I think the real key here is just how strong the identity of Ukrainian nationality really is. It's a difficult game. The Russians need to break the UKA's will to fight, without killing too many civilians, otherwise it will just redouble Ukrain's willingness to fight. At the same time, Zelensky's propaganda, while somewhat unexpected, has been weak and even ham-fisted at times. Zelensky only needs to overextend himself or suffer a large defeat for his warrior-king image to evaporate back into the ether from which it came.

 

[Marduk]

The US armed the Contras who beheaded people and spared not even US Citizens or Catholic Clergy and Nuns. We also supported Pinochet who had specially trained dogs to rape women with. Then there was Afghanistan. Do we need to go on?

What kind of discussion turnaround is that? General dump of anti-western grievances against USA?

Comrade, the Chinese can't be a world power without Russia and has to deal with Putin on the basis of equals.

See, changing that relationship is exactly why China goaded Russia into going for it. If those sanctions stick and Russia doesn't back down, China will be in the position of a country that no longer is number 1 on west's shitlist for some time, and remain a country that can deal with anyone... while Russia can only deal with China. And this obviously is an unequal relationship, because China can choose, and Russia can't. Which will be explained very clearly in any negotiations.

EU collapses without Russian Gas and China needs Russian Resources, not to mention all the nations that plain don't give a shit about the US or EU sanctions.

Any energy is a valid replacement, its Russian gas because of stupid politics. This can be changed.

I'm old enough to remember these news organizations saying the Taliban is tired, Kabul will hold, etc. So is Bill Roggio. Is there some friction amongst the Taliban? Yes but not a destabilizing one, considering they have an internal affairs department dedicated to shoring things up. Is there score settling despite orders from on top to knock it off? Yes, and the perpetrators are brought to justice.

That's the PR line...

Then what is the point, you might as well surrender if you won't keep your supply lines open.

Well guess what, USA cut the losses on supporting the mostly useless Afghan government.

2/3 of the men who served in Vietnam were volunteers. 2/3 of the men who served in World War II were drafted. Approximately 70% of those killed in Vietnam were volunteers.

FFS that's what i quoted when you said it was all volunteer
To add to the irony, its very similar to what Russia has now.

Conscripts’ share in Russian Army declines to 30%, says lawmaker

As the Russian defense chief said, all the sergeant’s and sergeant-major’s positions, the combat units of special operations forces, marine corps, battalion-level tactical groups and also positions related to the maintenance of complex hardware are fully manned with contract-enlisted personnel today

tass.com

We're talking ammo, but the tubes can be cranked out fast and downgraded M models of gear can be cranked out fast as needed.

What tubes? No one wants M48\T-54 grade vehicles shaped like modern ones.
Sensors, other electronics, exotic composite armors, without those the tanks are bound to be shit.

Oh they were and in a more threatening manner.

Nope, we would have heard of that.

Both, but Zelensky was the only one they needed to pysch.

Lol, the west was so blindsided by it that it got Russians complaining about invasion preparation accusations for 3 months before
Do you even read the fanfiction you write here?

The west was still thinking the Separatists would get greater support and Russian Troops would openly stay in separatist territory as peace keepers and increase the costs to Ukraine and make limited thrusts to get more defensible terrain.

Then the Russians attacked on multiple fronts and made a direct thrust at Kyiv. This the west was not expecting as it indicated Putin sought the complete de bellatio of Ukraine.

BZZZ wrong.

US warns Russian invasion could see Kyiv fall in days, leave 50,000 civilians dead

Internal American assessments say Putin has assembled 70% of the firepower needed for full-scale assault on Ukraine but hasn't made a final decision on whether to invade

www.timesofisrael.com

Depending on Putin’s ultimate objective, the Russian forces could attack Kyiv directly by moving south from current positions in southern Belarus. He might also send forces across the Russian border into eastern and southern Ukraine if his intent is to fracture and destroy a large portion of the Ukrainian army, the officials said.

All the world's news sites were talking about western intel claiming that, but western intel was surprised by exactly that happening, supposedly

Try reading it again.

Seems like something written by someone not usually dealing with the subject matter - for those who do, and in countries that are next to Russia, Putin absolutely is not the villain of the week, more like the villain of 2 decades making moves again.

 

[Zachowon]

No but if no one else is, you might as well do it or you die of privation. By conceding the roads, the US set itself up for failure. Then again it failed to train a non-corrupt officers corps for the Afghan Army that could secure the roads, another failure on their part.



I will admit to poor word choices, but the actual point I was making was that the Vietnam War wasn't a Conscript vs Conscript War. The US sent a largely volunteer force. Frankly the failure to pour in double the troops was a result of not conscripting more folks or just writing the entire thing off and cutting a deal with Ho while the their was still a deal to be cut.




Kharkiv looks to be entering the decisive phase, and Kherson in the south has fallen.

You do know how hard it is to guard roads when you are trying to not be a military occupation?
The ambushes often happend on roads because of how open they were in A-stan at times.
We found way around that as time went on...
But you would know that.
Having SOF defending a road is how you lose your SOF teams. They are for small target quick in and out missions.
You usually use MPs for protecting convoys and roads. Because they are suited ror that

 

[Chiron]

Your position is well thought-out, but I find this hard to believe. Simply put, amassing between 100,000 to 200,000 troops on the border of Ukraine, deploying warships to the Black Sea, and positioning troops north of Kiev--is an obvious, obvious indicator that Russia was prepared to use military force. Even when it looked as though the Russians were escalating to de-escalate, we had US and UK intelligence agencies outright coming out and claiming that Russia was amassing for an invasion. They were even laying out Russia's possible (and probable) invasion strategy.

Putin had been doing that for years. After several times, UkA and the Government of Ukraine got complacent. That these latest pre-invasion exercises were done by Eastern District Units with unsecured comms and little logistics was further coverage. Their constant social media posts, buying their gas and food from locals, and goofing off, and telling their families they were coming home soon, all was seen by UkA who passed it on to Zelensky.

Western Analysts are noise generators for the Milcomplex and could be ignored, as the only person the Russians had to psych was Zelensky. And it worked.

You do know how hard it is to guard roads when you are trying to not be a military occupation?
The ambushes often happend on roads because of how open they were in A-stan at times.
We found way around that as time went on...
But you would know that.
Having SOF defending a road is how you lose your SOF teams. They are for small target quick in and out missions.
You usually use MPs for protecting convoys and roads. Because they are suited ror that

US Politician: I lost the entire war because you saw an unsecured road our supplies travels and decided it wasn't your job to guard it till new forces could be deployed to do it?

US SOF: We killed High Value Target X.

US Politician: You're all fired, I will hire people who can actually win wars.

While clearly not what went down in the Afghan Debacle, if we had actual accountability, that is exactly what should have had happened. US forces trained the Afghan Army, said Army was corrupt as fuck and fell apart. Ergo US Forces failed their job and thus need to own it and fix themselves or be replaced by people who can do the job. But it is clear you drank your own Kool-Aide long ago and thus incapable of self-reflection.

What kind of discussion turnaround is that? General dump of anti-western grievances against USA?

Point is, the US is not one to talk and given the huge messes it created around the world, is far more monstrous than Putin is.

See, changing that relationship is exactly why China goaded Russia into going for it. If those sanctions stick and Russia doesn't back down, China will be in the position of a country that no longer is number 1 on west's shitlist for some time, and remain a country that can deal with anyone... while Russia can only deal with China. And this obviously is an unequal relationship, because China can choose, and Russia can't. Which will be explained very clearly in any negotiations.

Russia is an Industrial State with more nukes than China and access to the Middle East via Iran. China knows this, and also knows Russia is its only secure access to the raw materials it needs and a secure consumer market it can sell to.

Any energy is a valid replacement, its Russian gas because of stupid politics. This can be changed.

The EU has no replacements due to decades of disinvestment and a stupid green energy plan that failed. So its Russia or freeze. And the EU populace is already restive due to the mishandling of Covid.

That's the PR line...

If you say so. At the end of the day who is running Afghanistan?

Well guess what, USA cut the losses on supporting the mostly useless Afghan government.

Which they created in the first place. So they own the entire mess.

FFS that's what i quoted when you said it was all volunteer
To add to the irony, its very similar to what Russia has now.

Conscripts’ share in Russian Army declines to 30%, says lawmaker

As the Russian defense chief said, all the sergeant’s and sergeant-major’s positions, the combat units of special operations forces, marine corps, battalion-level tactical groups and also positions related to the maintenance of complex hardware are fully manned with contract-enlisted personnel today

tass.com

The point was, it wasn't a conscript vs conscript war exclusively. Volunteers made up the majority of the US Forces deployed to Vietnam and ARVN had a large volunteer force as well. But Conscription is what enabled the North to simply out attrition the US which failed to conscript enough boots on the ground to secure the entire nation. Mass is a thing.

What tubes? No one wants M48\T-54 grade vehicles shaped like modern ones.
Sensors, other electronics, exotic composite armors, without those the tanks are bound to be shit.

Artillery tubes, because after so many rounds, a barrel has to be replaced or the artillery piece is basically a smoothbore. And in an attritional war, so long as even a shitty tank is present and drawing fire from the Infantry, it is doing its job.

Nope, we would have heard of that.

We did, for years, only this time the Russians went through with it.

Lol, the west was so blindsided by it that it got Russians complaining about invasion preparation accusations for 3 months before
Do you even read the fanfiction you write here?

Lets ignore the years of desensitization and Western crying of wolf to get budgets approved and sell weapons. You have clearly drank your own Kool-Aide.

Fact is, till the1st echelons' Brigade Commanders received their sealed orders, everyone was hearing Russian Troops were packing up to go home. And because of social media, everyone was focused on the 1st echelon's poor OpSec in training and unseriousness. They were also seeing the second echelon's road march training and break downs. What they weren't seeing was the 3rd echelon's own marshalling points.

This is high operational art and was the result of months of pre-planning. Putin never expected the UkA to just fold in 72 hours, he would have been utterly surprised and glad if they did. Nay, he was expecting the UkA to aggressively counter-attack the 1st echelon's units and for the 1st echelon to panic and fall back. At which point the UkA's mobile reserves would be in the open pursuing what they thought was a beaten foe, and thus vulnerable to the 2nd echelon to take in the flanks and pocket.

That is what largely happened, and now the 3rd echelon is performing the Deep Battle Phase to operationally pocket the UkA's best troops east of the Dnieper who are either pocketed already or trapped in protracted combat with no way to disengage without becoming vulnerable to artillery fires or losing their heavy equipment.

 

[Marduk]

Point is, the US is not one to talk and given the huge messes it created around the world, is far more monstrous than Putin is.

>started
Yeah, without US doing things the world would have been just peace and flowers and shit.
So i was correct, general dump of anti-western talking points it is.
Opinion duly noted and discarded.

Russia is an Industrial State with more nukes than China and access to the Middle East via Iran. China knows this, and also knows Russia is its only secure access to the raw materials it needs and a secure consumer market it can sell to.

Iran, which itself is now competing with Russia on who is going to be the most sanctioned state in the world after North Korea.

The EU has no replacements due to decades of disinvestment and a stupid green energy plan that failed. So its Russia or freeze. And the EU populace is already restive due to the mishandling of Covid.

Spring is coming, gas ports exist, coal exists. All it takes is kicking greens to the curb.

If you say so. At the end of the day who is running Afghanistan?

Is anyone? Someone running it implies that it runs. Meanwhile, in Taliban Afghanistan things have a tendency to not run. Like their power grid.

Kabul Suffers Blackout After Taliban Fails to Pay Power Bill

At least 16 Afghan provinces including Kabul suffered electricity blackouts on Thursday after the Taliban failed to pay power bills.

www.breitbart.com

Which they created in the first place. So they own the entire mess.

Remind me, how glorious and well run Afghanistan was before USA sent a single soldier there?
"They touched it so now they run the entire mess" is such a low effort, stereotypical anti-western talking point. Everyone and their dog except for whining SJWs know that this isn't how things work in the real world.

The point was, it wasn't a conscript vs conscript war exclusively. Volunteers made up the majority of the US Forces deployed to Vietnam and ARVN had a large volunteer force as well. But Conscription is what enabled the North to simply out attrition the US which failed to conscript enough boots on the ground to secure the entire nation. Mass is a thing.

More alternate history. It never "out attritioned" the US. It has beaten the South years after any major US forces left, after US severely limited assistance to South.

Artillery tubes, because after so many rounds, a barrel has to be replaced or the artillery piece is basically a smoothbore. And in an attritional war, so long as even a shitty tank is present and drawing fire from the Infantry, it is doing its job.

Lol, tubes are the least of the problems. Not sure if worth the logistics to supply. This isn't some third world skirmish where you can stick towed tube artillery in firebases and fire on insurgents in the area with relative impunity.
Shitty tank is just a slightly more dangerous practice target against modern weapons, may aswell make a decoy out of painted wood. Won't cost tens of tons of steel, won't require training 4 perfectly good crewmen, won't have massive logistical footprint.

We did, for years, only this time the Russians went through with it.

So now another turneround, western intel wasn't blindsided, it was expecting it for too long.
Whatever.

Lets ignore the years of desensitization and Western crying of wolf to get budgets approved and sell weapons. You have clearly drank your own Kool-Aide.

Fact is, till the1st echelons' Brigade Commanders received their sealed orders, everyone was hearing Russian Troops were packing up to go home. And because of social media, everyone was focused on the 1st echelon's poor OpSec in training and unseriousness. They were also seeing the second echelon's road march training and break downs. What they weren't seeing was the 3rd echelon's own marshalling points.

This is high operational art and was the result of months of pre-planning. Putin never expected the UkA to just fold in 72 hours, he would have been utterly surprised and glad if they did. Nay, he was expecting the UkA to aggressively counter-attack the 1st echelon's units and for the 1st echelon to panic and fall back. At which point the UkA's mobile reserves would be in the open pursuing what they thought was a beaten foe, and thus vulnerable to the 2nd echelon to take in the flanks and pocket.

That is what largely happened, and now the 3rd echelon is performing the Deep Battle Phase to operationally pocket the UkA's best troops east of the Dnieper who are either pocketed already or trapped in protracted combat with no way to disengage without becoming vulnerable to artillery fires or losing their heavy equipment.

Creative Writing is over there.

Creative Writing

Original fiction (You lose rights if you post it here), poetry, bardic creations, and fanfiction story and posting threads.

www.the-sietch.com

 

[Sailor.X]

Also this just in..........



And people wonder why for the past few years people have been randomly attacking Chinese Citizens worldwide.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Also this just in..........



And people wonder why for the past few years people have been randomly attacking Chinese Citizens worldwide.

If they are talking shit like this then they deserve the beatings, And if they are acting like pedo's they deserve to be shot.

 

[Bacle]

I mean, there have been plenty of kids killed

We killed kids in Iraq and A-stan, not to mention Vietnam and Korea.

We can condemn what Putin is doing, without pretending our own shit doesn't stink or that we so 'morally superior' the Russians.

We cannot let ourselves become ok with increasing censorship, decreasing freedom, and increasing authoritarianism, just because they are aiming a lot of their efforts at Putin/Russia, currently.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Aaaand it looks like the twitter cheerleading will soon change to relentless screeching.

https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/with_replies

In short, the Russians have nearly completed a land bridge to Moldova. Not to mention another thrust appears to be heading towards Kiev from the East. I guess Ukraine's comedian turned politician better get in his clown car.

Well at least they finally captured it after having been reported to have captured it on the first day of the War.

And Clown Car?

 

[The Original Sixth]

Well at least they finally captured it after having been reported to have captured it on the first day of the War.

And Clown Car?

Zelensky was a comedian before he came to power in Ukraine. And he was the fool who led his country into a war with Russia, based on flimsy promises of Western powers who aren't willing to spill a drop of blood for Ukraine, while congratulating themselves on their "charity". Zelensky would have been better off re-aligning Ukraine with Russia and assuring Russia that they would not develop ballistic missiles to hit Moscow nor would they join NATO.

 

[Chiron]

In short, the Russians have nearly completed a land bridge to Moldova. Not to mention another thrust appears to be heading towards Kiev from the East. I guess Ukraine's comedian turned politician better get in his clown car.

Nah, he should stay and face his fate like a man. If he runs, he loses all respect, but if he stays, he will have stood for something and I can respect that.



Kadyrov unlike Putin is waging a successful twitter campaign. Complete with catchy tunes. He is clearly trying to compete with ISIS in regards to having catchy tunes and slick footage with obligatory Allah Ackbar.



And it looks like Zelensky really can't flee or expect mercy either. His only way out is an honorable death.

 

[Whitestrake Pelinal]

Aaaand it looks like the twitter cheerleading will soon change to relentless screeching.

https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/with_replies

In short, the Russians have nearly completed a land bridge to Moldova. Not to mention another thrust appears to be heading towards Kiev from the East. I guess Ukraine's comedian turned politician better get in his clown car.

I haven't heard anything that corroborates Zeihan's claim that Russia will move further west and annex Transnistria. It is a possibility, and one that Transnistria would likely argue for, but... does it really serve Russia's interests? Is it worth the expense of holding and maintaining a land bridge that would almost certainly include Odessa?

That calculus doesn't feel right to me, I don't see how Russia gains enough to justify the effort. The reasoning behind the Ukraine invasion at least makes sense, whatever I may think of it.

 

[Agent23]

I haven't heard anything that corroborates Zeihan's claim that Russia will move further west and annex Transnistria. It is a possibility, and one that Transnistria would likely argue for, but... does it really serve Russia's interests? Is it worth the expense of holding and maintaining a land bridge that would almost certainly include Odessa?

That calculus doesn't feel right to me, I don't see how Russia gains enough to justify the effort. The reasoning behind the Ukraine invasion at least makes sense, whatever I may think of it.

Odessa was the place where the whole thing started when the Ukrainian nazis decided to burn 30 people alive.
It is also an important city in Russian and Soviet history, so they will probably want it, might as well go for broke, and also cut off the rump state of Ukraine's access to the Black Sea.

 

[The Original Sixth]

Nah, he should stay and face his fate like a man. If he runs, he loses all respect, but if he stays, he will have stood for something and I can respect that.

Zelensky will probably run. The reasons for that are as pragmatic as they are personal. If Zelensky is killed or taken--along with his administration, then Russia wins. Zelensky will either need to go underground--then avoid the KGB (or whatever they call themselves these days) for years or slip across the Ukrainian border and live a luxury life in exile while cheering on his "comrades" in Ukraine from afar.

The key is when and how Zelensky runs. It can't be a cowardly retreat (ie, ahead of enemy forces) which is to his credit, not something he's done. He also can't be killed while fleeing the battlefield. Optimally, he should sacrifice himself fighting against the Russians, then let a competent number two take over.

Kadyrov unlike Putin is waging a successful twitter campaign. Complete with catchy tunes. He is clearly trying to compete with ISIS in regards to having catchy tunes and slick footage with obligatory Allah Ackbar.

Russia won't win the war on the media front. That was never going to happen. The West's liberal powers control those forums. If the Alt-Right can't win on those platforms, the Russians don't stand a chance.

And it looks like Zelensky really can't flee or expect mercy either. His only way out is an honorable death.

Actually, he can still surrender. Because a formal surrender would end all legitimacy a resistance movement will have and will save Russia a great deal of trouble. Expect Russia to want to capture as many of his administration alive as possible. Because they need SOMEONE with authority to give a formal surrender to Moscow. That bolsters Russia's credibility. It isn't necessary, but it would be a feather in Putin's cap.

I haven't heard anything that corroborates Zeihan's claim that Russia will move further west and annex Transnistria. It is a possibility, and one that Transnistria would likely argue for, but... does it really serve Russia's interests? Is it worth the expense of holding and maintaining a land bridge that would almost certainly include Odessa?

That calculus doesn't feel right to me, I don't see how Russia gains enough to justify the effort. The reasoning behind the Ukraine invasion at least makes sense, whatever I may think of it.

Unless I misremember, it's not that Moldova is going to be conquered--it's that the Russian troops already stationed in Moldova may engage in the attack on Ukraine. Or at least allow entry so Russia can open another avenue of attack. Moldova is better off seen as a separate, but Russian backed entity. It allows Moscow more maneuverability. As was the case with Belarus.

 

[Marduk]

Odessa was the place where the whole thing started when the Ukrainian nazis decided to burn 30 people alive.

You mean rioting got out of hand and someone set a building on fire with molotovs, it's not even certain which side, as both used them.

2014 Odessa clashes - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But hey, its an old and classic propaganda point in this debate, so you gotta repeat it and hope everyone else gets tired of questioning it.

 

[Firebat]

That calculus doesn't feel right to me, I don't see how Russia gains enough to justify the effort.

The same can be said about the invasion and arguably the entirety of Russian involvement in Ukraine in the last 30+ years.
Yet here we are.

 

[Whitestrake Pelinal]

Odessa was the place where the whole thing started when the Ukrainian nazis decided to burn 30 people alive.
It is also an important city in Russian and Soviet history, so they will probably want it, might as well go for broke, and also cut off the rump state of Ukraine's access to the Black Sea.

I don't think "might as well go for broke" is part of Putin's playbook. None of this war feels emotional on Russia's side, it all feels calculated. The goals are simple and logical. Force Ukraine to be a vassal state to keep NATO missiles off the Russian border, and seize valuable oil territory. Ending the Ukrainian attacks on Donetsk and Lugansk is a happy bonus, but wasn't enough reason to act for the last eight years.

The same can be said about the invasion and arguably the entirety of Russian involvement in Ukraine in the last 30+ years.
Yet here we are.

What 'we' is this? It makes perfect sense to me. Can't have warmongering NATO setting up their ABM gear on the border, the NATO morons might get it into their fat heads that MAD no longer applies.

 

[Marduk]

I don't think "might as well go for broke" is part of Putin's playbook. None of this war feels emotional on Russia's side, it all feels calculated. The goals are simple and logical. Force Ukraine to be a vassal state to keep NATO missiles off the Russian border, and seize valuable oil territory. Ending the Ukrainian attacks on Donetsk and Lugansk is a happy bonus, but wasn't enough reason to act for the last eight years.

Read that Putin's essay i've linked. This is all excuses, side arguments and conspiracies, argument meant for naive, misinformed or unaligned third parties. The main driver of this is very clear and simple. Putin believes Ukrainians aren't a real nation and they with their whole country rightfully belong to Russia. Basically very similar to the China-Taiwan argument.

 

[The Original Sixth]

The same can be said about the invasion and arguably the entirety of Russian involvement in Ukraine in the last 30+ years.
Yet here we are.

Not even close. The loss of Ukraine to the West is simply not something that Putin can accept. It would allow NATO weapon systems well within minutes range of Moscow. That doesn't seem so bad now--but keep in mind that Russia has a collapsing demography--and that's with all the various non-Russians within Russia. Russia's engineers and scientists with the full range of training are all nearing their 60s, the point in which most Russian men die.

Russia is a power in decline and it knows it. Capturing Ukraine would allow them to re-absorb Russians and Ukrainian Slavs, while also creating a strong buffer region between Moscow and a strong West. Keep in mind just how quickly the US and Europe turned on the leaders of Egypt, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Imagine how quickly they could break a weakened Russia with a half-functioning military using Ukraine as a launch pad.

Putin is right when he says that Russia has security concerns. And he was right to press them forward. And he's right to invade the Ukraine. Doesn't mean I support the invasion, but this was brought on by the West failing to consider Russia's security concerns or not caring or possibly thinking that Russia couldn't/wouldn't do anything.

And now thousands of Ukrainians will die because the West needed to huff its own farts.