Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Agent23]

Zelensky will probably run. The reasons for that are as pragmatic as they are personal. If Zelensky is killed or taken--along with his administration, then Russia wins. Zelensky will either need to go underground--then avoid the KGB (or whatever they call themselves these days) for years or slip across the Ukrainian border and live a luxury life in exile while cheering on his "comrades" in Ukraine from afar.

The key is when and how Zelensky runs. It can't be a cowardly retreat (ie, ahead of enemy forces) which is to his credit, not something he's done. He also can't be killed while fleeing the battlefield. Optimally, he should sacrifice himself fighting against the Russians, then let a competent number two take over.

He needs to stay alive and in the west or he needs to die in a mundane, impersonal way, IMO, a missile taking out his helicopter or something like that.
I don't think he has a number two, his whole party was based around his ego and charisma and probably US dark money, and Poroshenko, who is hated IMO, will probably be the one to pick up the pieces.
This Ukrainian lady probably sums up the views of the current Ukrainian government quite well:

Russia won't win the war on the media front. That was never going to happen. The West's liberal powers control those forums. If the Alt-Right can't win on those platforms, the Russians don't stand a chance.

There are alternate platforms and the non-mainstream right, from weeaboos to Trump supporters are flocking there, I am talking places like Minds and Gab, and Rumble, and Bitchute.

Also, the west is not the only game in town.
Perhaps a more measured campaign in Ukraine as compared to US shock and awe, Kadirov's social media antics and the hypocrisy of the west in slapping down Russia so hard vs. condoning and fomenting stuff that happens in places like Syria, Libya and Yemen can help Russia win over more of the Islamic World/Middle East.

Actually, he can still surrender. Because a formal surrender would end all legitimacy a resistance movement will have and will save Russia a great deal of trouble. Expect Russia to want to capture as many of his administration alive as possible. Because they need SOMEONE with authority to give a formal surrender to Moscow. That bolsters Russia's credibility. It isn't necessary, but it would be a feather in Putin's cap.

Yeah, Poroshenko will probably be the best option for that

Unless I misremember, it's not that Moldova is going to be conquered--it's that the Russian troops already stationed in Moldova may engage in the attack on Ukraine. Or at least allow entry so Russia can open another avenue of attack. Moldova is better off seen as a separate, but Russian backed entity. It allows Moscow more maneuverability. As was the case with Belarus.

There is a separatist part of Moldova called Transnistria, perhaps they will take that while they are at it.

 

[Firebat]

Can't have warmongering NATO idiots setting up their ABM gear on the border

It would allow NATO weapon systems well within minutes range of Moscow.

NATO currently encompasses Romania, Slovakia, Poland. Given the range of modern weapons systems, there is no functional difference between them being stationed in Bukharest or Kiev. A Tomahawk launched from Warsaw can hit basically anything in European Russia. The reverse is also true: modern Russian rockets can hit most of Europe. And the next generation of rockets is going have even greater range.
It's not 1930's anymore. Distance is not quite the shield it used to be.

Capturing Ukraine would allow them to re-absorb Russians and Ukrainian Slavs, while also creating a strong buffer region between Moscow and a strong West.

A modern state has a great difficulty absorbing people who don't want to be absorbed. It is very costly and not worth it. That's why colonial empires of 19th century are gone by now.
As for strong buffer region... how? Ukraine is one of bigger European states. 40 millions of people live in Ukraine. Who is going to maintain order there, let alone make a hypothetical buffer region "strong"? It's not like Russian government can put all of Russian military in Ukraine forever. Troops are needed in Syria, in Caucasus, in Central Asia, even in Far East.

Whether demography or NATO rockets, invasion of Ukraine is not a solution.

 

[The Original Sixth]

NATO currently encompasses Romania, Slovakia, Poland. Given the range of modern weapons systems, there is no functional difference between them being stationed in Bukharest or Kiev. A Tomahawk launched from Warsaw can hit basically anything in European Russia. The reverse is also true: modern Russian rockets can hit most of Europe. And the next generation of rockets is going have even greater range.
It's not 1930's anymore. Distance is not quite the shield it used to be.

The issue isn't one of maximum range, but rather response time. Russia's SAM network is about as advanced as it's going to get. And it's likely going to decline in capability both relative and objective, within the next few decades as it becomes costlier for Russia to maintain it. The closer NATO is to Moscow, the less response time Russia has in the event of a NATO/US intervention within the coming decades.

If NATO absorbed Ukraine, it could in theory, impose a no-fly-zone over Moscow. If they have to fly through Belarus or Ukraine. that's an entirely different story. There's also the issue of Crimea. Russia's naval base there is really their only true warm water port year round. If Ukraine joined NATO, NATO could easily cut it off from the rest of Russia. And in so doing, would allow further reinforcements via Turkey and the Black Sea.

A modern state has a great difficulty absorbing people who don't want to be absorbed. It is very costly and not worth it. That's why colonial empires of 19th century are gone by now.

That's not even remotely true. Modern colonial empires are gone because the US effectively outlawed them after WWII. It allowed the US to retain control over Western Europe, because without their colonies, European states wouldn't have the means competing with the US--it was also an issue that helped drive conflict within Europe itself. The result is that Europe has had to try and unite in order to compete with the US and has done so poorly. As every crises ever presented to them has proven time and time again.

As for strong buffer region... how? Ukraine is one of bigger European states. 40 millions of people live in Ukraine. Who is going to maintain order there, let alone make a hypothetical buffer region "strong"? It's not like Russian government can put all of Russian military in Ukraine forever. Troops are needed in Syria, in Caucasus, in Central Asia, even in Far East.

Because SPOILER, most Ukrainians don't care enough about their government to fight for it. Or rather, to die for it. The Ukrainian government under Zelensky is just as corrupt and thuggish as the one that came before it. The only difference is whose pimp they whore themselves out to. And that government was just as corrupt and incompetent as the Soviet government before it. That's just how it is.

Probably about 60% of the Ukrainian population doesn't care enough one way or another to fight a war with Russia--an adversary that is far stronger than they are. 20% would probably welcome the invasion and another 20% are probably staunchly anti-Russian and pro-European. What Russia is needing to concern itself with is not necessarily the 20% who are willing to fight, but the 60% who aren't committed. That's why Russia has been trying to limit its strike on civilian areas and targets.

Because the less aggravation that they cause to the everyday person. The 60% may NOT LIKE what the Russians did, but they're going to get over it if Russia is fair after they win. And Russia has every motivation to do that within their framework. Then the Russians are going to focus on killing resistance leaders and delegitimizing the resisting 20%. And when it becomes obvious that Europe isn't going to shed a single drop of blood to help Ukraine, they're going to realize that it's safer and easier to just side with Russia.

 

[Floridaman]

Aaaand it looks like the twitter cheerleading will soon change to relentless screeching.

https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/with_replies

In short, the Russians have nearly completed a land bridge to Moldova. Not to mention another thrust appears to be heading towards Kiev from the East. I guess Ukraine's comedian turned politician better get in his clown car.

Wow, he looks like he adage a decade in a week.

 

[The Original Sixth]

Wow, he looks like he adage a decade in a week.

Nah, he's just grown his hair out. So the long brown hair clashes with his beard, I think.

 

[Firebat]

The issue isn't one of maximum range, but rather response time.

Two or three seconds (which is what the distance difference amounts to given the speeds) are not going to make or break the calculus. Especially since the rockets are going to become even faster in the future and the distance is going to become even less of a factor than it currently is.
Trying to use distance as defense against rockets is like trying to pump out flooded compartment with a spoon. Theoretically possible, but not really an option.

Modern colonial empires are gone because the US effectively outlawed them after WWII.

That's not even remotely true. Modern colonial empires have lasted well past WWII, in 1960s and 70s - long enough to show that forcing people to remain inside an empire is not feasible. African and Asian colonies blew up in a string of revolts and insurgencies that were too costly to put down.

Because SPOILER, most Ukrainians don't care enough about their government to fight for it. Or rather, to die for it.

Most people in any country just want to go on with their lives. The problem is, even a small group of insurgents can ruin the party and make occupation unfeasible. And 20% of 40 millions as a support base for insurgency is nothing to sneeze at. The entire population of Afghanistan, supporting insurgents or not, in 1979 was 13 million - and we know how that turned out.

Another thing about "absorbing" people is emigration. Ukraine is poor and millions have already moved one way or another. War made Ukraine even more poor. Putin can't make Ukraine rich - he can't even make Russia rich. Which means that even more young people will hit the road to Europe. Again, not helpful if the aim is to save Russian demography.

 

[Bassoe]

...long enough to show that forcing people to remain inside an empire is not feasible. African and Asian colonies blew up in a string of revolts and insurgencies that were too costly to put down.

We were told we had to decolonize or we'd be dragged into eternal unwinnable warfare against guerrilla freedom fighters/terrorists. Then the war on terror came along and we got that anyway, minus the benefits of being a colonial power.

 

[Firebat]

Then the war on terror came along and we got that anyway

"That" included things like half a million French soldiers in Algiers alone. War on terror never came even close to "that".

 

[posh-goofiness]

"That" included things like half a million French soldiers in Algiers alone. War on terror never came even close to "that".

Yup. You're right. Absolutely correct, in fact.

It just brought a 2 decade long perpetual war machine that inflated the security state and nurtured the most corrupted politicians in American history, killed 250k+ civilians in the Middle East, destabilized East/West geopolitics by fomenting color revolutions and, of course, losing any moral high ground we might have still retained before we started the shit show.

 

[sillygoose]

And now thousands of Ukrainians will die because the West needed to huff its own farts.

Let's be clear this is American government's project, mainly to cut off Nordstream and decouple Germany from Russian energy in favor of their own planned pipeline through Syria. Hence the 2014 coup that was likely backed by the US triggered by the Russian aligned government backing away from further economic links to the EU. When I say likely it is based on the leaked conversation involving US actors in the region discussing who to put in charge after the coup:

Victoria Nuland - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Revolution of Dignity - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In a recorded phone conversation leaked on 4 February, Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt are heard discussing their wishes for a Ukraine transition to an interim government, and specifically, the roles in which they hoped to see the prominent opposition leaders:

Nuland: "I don't think Klitsch (Klitschko) should go into the government. I don't think it's necessary, I don't think it's a good idea."
Pyatt: "Just let him stay out and do his political homework and stuff."
Nuland: "I think Yats (Yatsenyuk) is the guy who's got the economic experience the governing experience. I just think Klitsch going in… he's going to be at that level working for Yatseniuk, it's just not going to work. We want to try to get somebody with an international personality to come out here and help to midwife this thing."[69]

Nuland was also recorded in the same conversation saying, "Fuck the EU," dismissively referring to slow-moving European efforts to address political paralysis and a looming fiscal crisis in Ukraine.[70][71]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity#cite_note-71

That last part gives me the feeling that is the US mentality in general regarding the EU.

That's just the way the US operates. It is willing to make hundreds of millions of people die so they can make the world 'safe for Democracy' (read: American control). My country is straight up run by the worst psychos in the world.

 

[sillygoose]

We were told we had to decolonize or we'd be dragged into eternal unwinnable warfare against guerrilla freedom fighters/terrorists. Then the war on terror came along and we got that anyway, minus the benefits of being a colonial power.

Oh the benefits were gained, but much like colonialism only the rich benefit.

 

[sillygoose]

is cities surrendering with minimal urban fighting surprising? We remember Stalingrad and the battle of Berlin because they are the hellish exception rather than the rule.

I think you're forgetting all the lesser city fights that ended relatively quickly in WW2. Urban combat is not the exception at all, propaganda just fixates on the biggest ones. Budapest for instance was worse than Stalingrad proportionally speaking. Stalingrad was just the worst city fight in European history. Berlin is so memorable due to it ending WW2 effectively.

 

[bintananth]

Don’t forget we also excluded energy, since $10 gas would bring the west to revolution, rather than their goal of destabilizing Russia.

You should should take a look at the gasoline prices in Norway if you think $10US/gal would be a problem. Norway exports oil and the price you pay for gasoline at a filling station in Norway is "yes" in the "if you have to ask, you can't afford it" sense.

 

[Chiron]

Ok, I knew it was somewhere.

Also this.

Included for completeness, but these are old TO&Es and largely abandoned in the late 90s.

The first 2 will largely explain what we are actually seeing and how the Russians actually had this all under control from the beginning. Now there has been a lot of evolution in these doctrines since the 80s, but at their base, its still the same script just updated for new modern inventions such as social media and smart phones.

Sucks for the 1st echelon troops who got Zapp Branniganed in order to trick Zelensky into not mobilizing. But they did the job, and UkA frittered away its SOF in local counter-attacks that weren't strong enough to actually stop the invasion.

This enabled the 2nd echelon to go in and pocket up the SOF and mobile reserves and break open the door for the reserves in the 3rd echelon.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Ok, I knew it was somewhere.

Also this.

Included for completeness, but these are old TO&Es and largely abandoned in the late 90s.

The first 2 will largely explain what we are actually seeing and how the Russians actually had this all under control from the beginning. Now there has been a lot of evolution in these doctrines since the 80s, but at their base, its still the same script just updated for new modern inventions such as social media and smart phones.

Sucks for the 1st echelon troops who got Zapp Branniganed in order to trick Zelensky into not mobilizing. But they did the job, and UkA frittered away its SOF in local counter-attacks that weren't strong enough to actually stop the invasion.

This enabled the 2nd echelon to go in and pocket up the SOF and mobile reserves and break open the door for the reserves in the 3rd echelon.

So basically Zelensky got sucker punched in this case. Yikes.

Since we're approaching the Rasputitsa season, would the presence of muddy roads actually help Ukraine though? Moreover, the weather is fast approaching spring, so there wouldn't be a need for Russian gas for heating.

 

[Chiron]

That is a galaxy brain strategy, Seems more like the Russians just fucked up and expected the Ukrainians to roll over and then they didn't so now they have to actually get serious.

No it isn't. In this age of social media, and cell phones, the Russians could not afford to let Ukraine mobilize. If they did, Ukraine would have had Corps and Army level units with which to counter-punch and not have to rely on SOF teams to counter-attack.

Zelensky had to believe this was a training exercise and that in turn meant the soldiers and Brigade Commanders had to believe it was as well and post as such on social media. The 2nd echelon had more preparation, but again no real info till the 1st echelon went in. The third echelon could then form up as the 1st and 2nd echelon engaged and drew all the attention.

 

[Agent23]

The Doc lays out why this war will most certainly cause the economies of the EU and US to collapse.

Putin has nothing to fear. EU has 12 days of oil without Putin's exports.

Yup, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine account for a massive amount of agricultural exports.
Wheat, potash, energy that you need to make wheat and fertilizer.

One of the reasons I wanted Ukraine in the EU was the very, very good soil which would have helped our food security.
Also, they were talking about lots of shale.

However I do not think that this will lead to an all out collapse, though, maybe a 1970s style stagflation.
We were seeing a recession in Germany starting even before the Ukraine situation escalated and some said the USA was in stagflation territory.

Geez, I am glad I bought fertilizer stocks when the P/E ratio was like,only 11, as well as gold and silver stocks.

To the moon,baby!
Courtesy of the messianic morons, thank you, you dumb fucks, you are making me richer.
Enjoy your 30% plus food inflation.

As Maverick of WallSt. says:

Lean hogs are the new big tech.

Well the MSM and UkA cheerleaders are about to have a rude awakening.

Yup, CRP even thinks that the powers that be are doing this to blame the impending crash on Russia, I'd counter that they are not that intelligent and far-sighted.
We had out of whack inflation and debt before this started, with record leverage and the Stock market being hugely overpriced as per the Buffett Indicator.

And before somebody tries to put this into Huskey Karen's thread I'd like to remind you of two statements made by Rommel and Napoleon about war.

A WAR IS WON OR LOST BY THE QUARTERMASTERS BEFORE THE FIRST SHOT IS FIRED!

AN ARMY MARCHES ON ITS STOMACH.

Geez, I am wondering how much of those revelations came from their interactions with a certain place that was allegedly a gas station with a country and an economy that was allegedly smaller than,what was it,Spain Italy, the Seichelles.

Putin managed to shore himself up quite well by opportunistically pulling Belarus and Kazakhstan back in,Kazatomprom for instance is a massive Uranium producer, so expect to see disruptions n there, too.

What are you gonna do,go green.
You also lost a lot of silver nickel and aluminum because of this war, too.

Fuckers should have been playing Master of Orion or Cossacks in stead of C&C Generals and StarCraft.
War is ultimately about economics, and production, and resources and about continuing diplomacy by other means, not about whatever stupidity one side puts out on social media.

Putin can sell all his stuff to India and China, what can the west do with its virtual money?

 

[Scottty]

Ah, ok; using them to either bait drones or SAMS would be a useful way to 'expend' those air frames.

Is that what they'd tell the pilots though?

Read that Putin's essay i've linked. This is all excuses, side arguments and conspiracies, argument meant for naive, misinformed or unaligned third parties. The main driver of this is very clear and simple. Putin believes Ukrainians aren't a real nation and they with their whole country rightfully belong to Russia. Basically very similar to the China-Taiwan argument.

A thought I had on that...
If the Ukrainian Nationalists really hoped that the West would support them in having their own country in which their nation could live as an independent people, being ruled by their own kind, etc... they would have likely been cruelly disappointed anyway.
Current Western regimes don't believe in the right of ethnic self-determination even for their own people!
If Ukraine had been absorbed into NATO and/or the EU, how long before the demand would come to open the floodgates for mass immigration from Africa or the Middle-East?
Leftist academics smugly proclaiming that Ukrainians had no culture of their own and needed to be "enriched" by Nigerians or Yemenis?
And so on.

They might find themselves being heavily oppressed by the Russians - but the Russians at least do not want to genocide them and replace them with Third-World immigrants.

 

[Captain X]

If the Ukrainian Nationalists really hoped that the West would support them in having their own country in which their nation could live as an independent people, being ruled by their own kind, etc... they would have likely been cruelly disappointed anyway.
Current Western regimes don't believe in the right of ethnic self-determination even for their own people!
If Ukraine had been absorbed into NATO and/or the EU, how long before the demand would come to open the floodgates for mass immigration from Africa or the Middle-East?
Leftist academics smugly proclaiming that Ukrainians had no culture of their own and needed to be "enriched" by Nigerians or Yemenis?
And so on.

Aren't both Poland and Hungry holding out pretty well against that?

You can claim that all you want, but you yourself at one point said you'd be cheering on Russia in this. Also, since Russia is waging a war of aggression against another state, and you are backing Russia doing this, you cannot characterize yourself as anything other than pro-war.

 

[Agent23]

Conterpoint: Whatever the EU whines, V4 and the like prove that its perfectly possible to tell them to fuck off. Which Ukrainians absolutely would have.
Meanwhile, look at the UK - they can leave the EU, but EU stupidity is sure not leaving them, because their own political class swallowed it no less than the bureaucrats in Brussels.

It’s time to kick Poland and Hungary out of the EU
Do you actually think that the German and French Ruling classes aren't furious with you for shilling for the Anglo-Saxons and spoiling their lucrative trade relations with Russia?

I am pretty sure that the desire to make Poland in particular more diverse and inclusive and neo-liberal will only grow.
Well, at least you will be able to fall on your trade ties with Hungary and Belarus and Ukrain..um, yeah no,nevermind.
Ukraine will be cut down to size, Hungary had good relationships with Russia and Orban is probably furious with you, he only caved in on sanctions and joining the anti-Russia posturing to keep good relations with you.
V4 will probably get reduced to V3, or V2 or even V(W)1.
The loud media circus will die down and you will be stuck holding the bag, you already got, what, half a million refugees.

And it looks like Russia is a lot more liberal with the shock and awe west of the Dnieper, might they perhaps wish to yeet part of one problem into another I wonder?

On the bright side, maybe CDPR can finally do a decent Stalker 2 and get some frigging QAs for it and for CP2077.