Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Marduk]

I'm more and more convinced their primary miscalculation beyond all their military problem was how uniquely and utterly weak President Hairsniffer is personally and how charismatic Zelinsky is.

They thought after the US's disgraceful humiliation at the hands of the Taliban that they could just walk in since no one would stop em and... well... that's what happened for the first months where they botched half the invasion... they could and did just regroup to fight it out 'conventionally' where they were slowly but surely grinding the Ukrainians to dust with their massive artillery advantage pre HIMARS.

But they weren't the only ones to realize Hairsniffer is a cardboard cutout of his former plagiarist creep self, literally the entire fking world's leadership knows this including Zelinsky, who saw the US leaderless and started asking for everything he could get. And which he's gotten more and more since he knows how to act. And since we're in a real life 'Wag the Dog' scenario where it's just money and stuff for the US... and most of that money's going to our MIC... well... it's honestly kinda funny seeing how utterly pathetic France's and Germany's leadership also has been considering how unhappy they reveal they are constantly at their diplomacy being shackled to DC and therefore Kyiv.

Pretty much any other person being US President, even Willie Brown's Whore aka Kamala Harris would've gotten offended or tired or maybe even apprehensive at Putin's threats and actions on the world stage... but Biden's shaking hands with thin air and since no US soldiers under the banner of the US have died... well... without martyrs/'martyrs' a cause has little traction and those who are anti-war basically don't have any for this war. Yeah we're drawing down on our own stockpiles, sure, but we can make more and until the Chicoms go for the brass ring... that's not the best argument.

And on the flipside, if Ukraine didn't have Zelinsky as President I don't think any of their previous Presidents nor many of their other politicians would've been able to keep the Ukraine war as the 'current thing' in the world's consciousness for nearly as long as he has. The fact that he's Jewish with Putin broadcasting to the world that this Super Duper Special Military Operation was 'denazification' was just *chef's kiss*.

Not really, not everyone's whole geopolitical judgement revolves around current US presidency, certainly outside of terminally political westerners.
Russia was preparing for it more or less since a couple years earlier, and thinking about it since 2014.
Really, a big part of the grand misjudgement of the first days and weeks of war was Russian projection of own standards and customs onto its vassals. They really think Ukrainians more similar to them than they really are, except plus evul western influences. Yet it turned out that over 8 years of low level warfare they could in fact get their shit together quite nicely considering how meager their resources were economically, considering their starting point in 2014 being about as bad as expected - not only that, Russians with all their spying didn't realize this happened and its implications. They really though that they could get away with just driving into the capital with minimal opposition and install own government to make the West face a done deal and just make an argument that there is no point in getting outraged about spilled milk, no Ukrainian government to support, and no point in sanctions against an already finished war effort.
Some say Russia even expected outright terror and surrender from half of NATO, but even without that, it may have worked to the point of lack of severe consequences.
But beyond the 3 weeks, the whole plan was failed because it couldn't maintain the speed necessary to succeed by out-running western political and material response, seems like it's all improvisation afterwards, throwing more good money after bad, and then acting surprised that it's never enough, while the stockpile of good money is visibly thinning out.

 

[Aldarion]

I'm more and more convinced their primary miscalculation beyond all their military problem was how uniquely and utterly weak President Hairsniffer is personally and how charismatic Zelinsky is.

Primary miscalculation was the same as Hitler's, I think: after having crossed several lines with no response, Putin became convinced he can cross all the lines with no response.

Turns out, he couldn't.

 

[ATP]

And you are surprised why more and more nations are running away from the dollar.

Becouse they are fiat money,just like euro.
Smart people buy gold,if they could.If you have more money then i ,you should do,too.

 

[paulobrito]

Becouse they are fiat money,just like euro.
Smart people buy gold,if they could.If you have more money then i ,you should do,too.

More because is subject to the moods of the day in the US. If you can do business without using dollars, said businesses are outside of American sanctions. A big plus in today's world.
Business between Russia, China, and India are more and more without dollars, BRICS and ASEAN are moving in that direction also. BRICS alone is already bigger than G7 (FMI data from October 2022), if you add ASEAN, the days of the dollar are counted and less than a decade to be just another currency.

 

[ATP]

More because is subject to the moods of the day in the US. If you can do business without using dollars, said businesses are outside of American sanctions. A big plus in today's world.
Business between Russia, China, and India are more and more without dollars, BRICS and ASEAN are moving in that direction also. BRICS alone is already bigger than G7 (FMI data from October 2022), if you add ASEAN, the days of the dollar are counted and less than a decade to be just another currency.

But,you could be targeted by China and kgbstan sanctions.
If you belive,that KGB colonel would save Chrystianity,then you really knew notching about kgb.

 

[paulobrito]

But,you could be targeted by China and kgbstan sanctions.
If you belive,that KGB colonel would save Chrystianity,then you really knew notching about kgb.

LOL, nope, what you see is returning to pre-dollar dominance in international transfers. AKA, transfers are made in several different currencies, like pre-WW2. Nobody is interested in swapping the dollar with the Yuan, not even the Chinese.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Someone got video of Russia's new Leopard busting Unmanned Ground Vehicle that specializes in tank hunting, the Platforma-M, taking an active role in military operations.



And some assorted funnies related to the four or five aircraft lost by Russia over Russian territory yesterday.

 

[ATP]

LOL, nope, what you see is returning to pre-dollar dominance in international transfers. AKA, transfers are made in several different currencies, like pre-WW2. Nobody is interested in swapping the dollar with the Yuan, not even the Chinese.

Pity.It is still fiat money.

 

[Megadeath]

Yeah, I got that wrong and owned up to that months ago. That you have to try to reach back almost a year now instead of actually debating the points at hands speaks volumes.

It's more that you've just been wrong constantly from the start.

Why isn't the AFU advancing? Why is the RuF? Attrition warfare takes time, something I've said for months.

Well... Funny thing there. I'm sure you'll go on saying it for even more months, but how are Russian advances doing vs Ukrainian ones now?

Hey Tiamat, since you've seemed to have "forgot" to respond to what I actually asked, let me remind you: why hasn't the Russian Army starved to death or died of hypothermia yet? We are almost in peak winter, so why hasn't the AFU walked over empty Russian trench lines yet? There's nothing left to forage for; crops were harvested months ago.

Huh, you want I should link you some Russians complaining about the supply situation?

Indeed, the fact on January 4th they noted the importance of Soledar and are now desperately changing tact should explain volumes about the situation. If you'd like, however, I even helpfully archived their tweets, since the link you added just takes you to their home page on Twitter, rather than any specific tweets?



Good thing I didn't say it did either, but I would generally assume most people have the cognitive abilities to discern that losing 50% of your logistics makes holding anything in a military sense much more difficult?

Well... Given you said this 4 months ago, and we're currently seeing that despite any difficulties in holding anything, the Ukrainians are taking back territory and it's the Russians complaining about supply issues, I hope you can be the bigger little princess and admit again that you were wrong about just this one specific prediction?

Well, given the Russian Army avoided any serious casualties but have been inflicting heavy losses instead upon the AFU, this outcome was to be expected, particularly as the RuF marshals its superior forces to bare upon the Ukrainians. AFU offensives have been halted now for almost three months, and they are actually losing ground, which is exactly what I had been saying for months. You might find it useful to learn what attrition war is, and I'm sure the AFU General Staff and Zelensky could stand to learn about it too, given their incessant bickering over Bakhmut strategy.

Heh. Hehehe. You're a fucking moron. I look forward greatly to revisiting this specifically in the next few months.

Ukrainian victories in recent months have been ephemeral, just as I predicted they would;

Has Ukraine actually given up any land they've taken back since the initial invasion?

they've not made any progress in two months and are now actually losing territory while continuously stating they're expecting a major Russian offensive to develop against them. For those who know anything of warfare, this means the initiative has passed back to the Russians, which completely invalidates everything you've been saying and vindicates me, as usual

And oh look, they squandered the initiative! Possibly it was poor equipment, maybe it was shit tier personnel. We'll likely never know for sure. But, and it's nice to say, we can once again rest safe in the assurance that you're incapable of predicting anything other than the wet dreams of the hapless command ranks sent to die ignominiously.

Keep telling yourself that and it'll still be as hilariously wrong as the first time you claimed. You're never able to counter me in any respect beyond the ostrich defense of saying I was wrong...

Nope. You have been wrong. In literally every single prediction you've made. I challenge you to dispute that assertion.

To date, I've had Marduk arguing he was mentally stable, Megadeath got drunk and ranted about me in this thread and that Planefag guy went on, at length, about his fantasies of me seeing him in public. There's definitely Lolcows in this thread, and they're all in your, ahem, "clique of friends". Half of you post about me when I'm not even around, I live in your heads THAT rent free and ultimately it's because I'm correct and you're utterly buck broken about it.

Brah... Sometimes you're useful as a rhetoric device. How better to hang the concept of wrong on a hook and beat it? Everyone else got wise or got banned.

 

[Marduk]

LOL, nope, what you see is returning to pre-dollar dominance in international transfers. AKA, transfers are made in several different currencies, like pre-WW2. Nobody is interested in swapping the dollar with the Yuan, not even the Chinese.

That is in fact a good route to start thinking of where potential dollar alternatives lie.
Unironically Euro is so far the #2, however when it comes to replacing dollar for its current issues, it's not like Euro is really better in terms of the concerns meant to be the reason for it. GBP and CHF are naturals, were popular even pre-WW2, but in terms of volume they have other issues. However, China's and third world currencies have a whole bag of other, far worse counter-indications, which put them much lower down the list.

 

[Zachowon]

LOL, nope, what you see is returning to pre-dollar dominance in international transfers. AKA, transfers are made in several different currencies, like pre-WW2. Nobody is interested in swapping the dollar with the Yuan, not even the Chinese.

Except, the dollar is the currency in which everything us priced around in the foreign markets ..

 

[paulobrito]

Except, the dollar is the currency in which everything us priced around in the foreign markets ..

That is the easiest thing to change after all. If /when the dollar stops being the sole global currency, making the prices in another currency is children's play.

 

[Jormungandr]

That is the easiest thing to change after all. If /when the dollar stops being the sole global currency, making the prices in another currency is children's play.

Love it or hate it, that isn't going to happen for a while.

You could go to most places in the world, except for places like Eritrea and North Korea, flash USD, and they'd take it as payment alongside their native currency (although, other Western countries and places like Japan and South Korea, this wouldn't happen as you'd need to buy their currency).

The only way I see the USD becoming replaced or rendered obsolete is if a) the United States itself as we know it collapses, which given how badly things are going is a real possibility (even the US breaking into two or more nations would do this), or b) a universal currency, such as a "credit" seen in many pieces of fictional media and most probably the WEF's wet dream come to life, replaces it and most other forms of currency.

Otherwise, the USD is here to stay mainstream, even if certain countries pledge to trade between themselves using only their native currencies -- any trades outside of that, especially when oil or petroleum-based products are involved, will be in the Almighty Dollar.

 

[Bacle]

Weebs at war.

 

[Zachowon]

Weebs at war.

Have you ever been near a military base. Do you not know how many cars with anime pictures and Hentaibthwre are?

 

[Bacle]

Have you ever been near a military base. Do you not know how many cars with anime pictures and Hentaibthwre are?

I see plenty of weebery around me, lots of techie weebs near where I live, just not on military vehicle's and gear usually.

Though at least the AK owner has decent taste, with Houshou Marine and AL Atago on his gun.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Su-57 Got Its First Air To Air Kill.

Quite notably it was of a Ukrainian Su-24 carrying several British Storm Shadow Cruise Missiles.



Looks like the NATO Wunderwaffe isn't all that wondrous after all. Can't launch your fancy air launched cruise missiles if an airplane can never get up into the air to launch it.

 

[Jormungandr]

Su-57 Got Its First Air To Air Kill.

Quite notably it was of a Ukrainian Su-24 carrying several British Storm Shadow Cruise Missiles.



Looks like the NATO Wunderwaffe isn't all that wondrous after all. Can't launch your fancy air launched cruise missiles if an airplane can never get up into the air to launch it.

If true, here's hoping the rest will be launched successfully.

 

[Husky_Khan]

If true, here's hoping the rest will be launched successfully.

I highly doubt it's true. Which is why I posted it here.

 

[Jormungandr]

I highly doubt it's true. Which is why I posted it here.

Things are such a mess out there for both sides in terms of reporting that I wouldn't be surprised if it were true, but obviously I'm hoping it's not true.