Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

WolfBear

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No, i meant economic power and influence in Europe.

Well, Yeah, which is unsurprising due to Germany's high human capital and large overall population.

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Japan also has both of these things but for some reason even developed East Asian countries sometimes slightly underperform economically relative to their human capital. It's true for both Japan and South Korea, I think.
 

Marduk

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Japan also has both of these things but for some reason even developed East Asian countries sometimes slightly underperform economically relative to their human capital. It's true for both Japan and South Korea, I think.
Are they really? Japan has probably the second navy in the world and is a massive technological power, while South Korea is an innocuously small industrial superpower (see: recent massive defense contracts with Poland).
South Korea is a tough competitor against tens of times larger China for the title of world's largest shipbuilder, Japan is third, and the rest of the world, including USA, EU, Russia, India, doesn't really matter much.
 

WolfBear

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Are they really? Japan has probably the second navy in the world and is a massive technological power, while South Korea is an innocuously small industrial superpower (see: recent massive defense contracts with Poland).
South Korea is a tough competitor against tens of times larger China for the title of world's largest shipbuilder, Japan is third, and the rest of the world, including USA, EU, Russia, India, doesn't really matter much.

Interesting. FWIW, I was talking about this:

 

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
>It's a war between United States and Russia
His guest is a certified idiot then. By this logic USA had several wars against the Soviet Union and we're distinctly nuclear apocalypse free. So with that context it's no big deal to have a "war" against Russia. Wake me up when there are F-15's in Ukraine with totally Ukrainian pilots speaking surprisingly good and unaccented American English.

Also a little tip for you people who dream of a "multipolar world" for the sake of competition to Pax Americana...
Can you get actually decent competition to be the other "poles" of the world first?
You are doing the equivalent of making a video about why Fords suck, and you need to give competition a chance...
But you don't talk about Toyotas and Volkswagens as for that the competition should be.
The competition you propose are Ladas with no ABS and airbags, some cheap Chinese cars with no safety rating at all and shoddy construction, and some weird buggy made in a third world garage that barely drives. Then you act shocked and surprised when the audience arrives to a conclusion that Fords aren't so bad at all if this is what the supposed competition is, you are kinda making them look good all things considered.
In one sentence, you are making the crumbling and barely functioning liberal world order look good by comparison if you want Russia and China to be world powers of a "multipolar world".

I don't have military bases of China or Russia. But I do have NATO bases which I would gladly be gone by now since there is no reason for them to be here since the URSS has fallen.
 

WolfBear

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One could easily argue that expanding NATO faster (before 2005 or so) and deeper (into Ukraine, Georgia, et cetera, but at least into Ukraine) would have also prevented the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the blog post above points out.

That, and John Mearsheimer himself has argued back in 1993 that Ukraine needs to keep its nuclear weapons in order to protect itself from the threat of Russian revanchism:


This is not a conclusion that Russia is actually going to like. Imagine the US saying "Fine, Ukraine can be neutral, but we'll give it 1,000 of our nuclear weapons and adequate delivery systems for them beforehand as a precautionary measure to protect Ukraine against another, future Russian invasion". Would Russia actually prefer that option over Ukrainian NATO membership?
 

Zachowon

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I don't have military bases of China or Russia. But I do have NATO bases which I would gladly be gone by now since there is no reason for them to be here since the URSS has fallen.
And hurt the local businesses around those bases, handicap yhe ability for your military to train with NATO counterparts, and basically make your country in a worse state?
Should I point out that if you push the US away China will come and takes its place.
So who would you rather have? A country that isn't communist and cam change a lot in a lifetime or China
 

WolfBear

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You know who didn't have NATO bases? Ukraine. ;)

Yep, just a few NATO trainers lol.

I don't have military bases of China or Russia. But I do have NATO bases which I would gladly be gone by now since there is no reason for them to be here since the URSS has fallen.

If Italy wants to expel NATO forces from its territory, it's presumably capable of doing this. France withdrew from NATO's integrated military command structure in or around 1966, after all. But Italy shouldn't complain about the subsequent loss of jobs in the relevant Italian region afterwards. Military bases produce jobs for locals, after all.
 

Marduk

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This is not a conclusion that Russia is actually going to like. Imagine the US saying "Fine, Ukraine can be neutral, but we'll give it 1,000 of our nuclear weapons and adequate delivery systems for them beforehand as a precautionary measure to protect Ukraine against another, future Russian invasion". Would Russia actually prefer that option over Ukrainian NATO membership?
Who knows? It would probably lead to EU membership anyway at this point.
The certain thing is that it would be a more dangerous world, as Russia would try more underhanded means to deal with Ukraine despite the nuclear arsenal, possibly trying to causing incident involving it, intentionally or as a side effect of the process.
 

WolfBear

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It would probably lead to EU membership anyway at this point.

And what exactly is wrong with that? Russia itself can blame its invasion of Ukraine for Ukraine (and Moldova) receiving EU candidacy status at this specific point in time.
 

Marduk

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And what exactly is wrong with that? Russia itself can blame its invasion of Ukraine for Ukraine (and Moldova) receiving EU candidacy status at this specific point in time.
As far as Russia is concerned, whether Ukraine joins EU or NATO is a tomato\tomatoe situation. Either way it's in "western block" and as such can no longer be integrated into Russia's empire resurgent under whatever name and terms without taking it out of that first, which would be near impossible, and that's their problem with Ukraine. Doing either locks off Russian plans for Ukraine, which do not account for an option where Ukraine doesn't follow with their plans for it.
 

WolfBear

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As far as Russia is concerned, whether Ukraine joins EU or NATO is a tomato\tomatoe situation. Either way it's in "western block" and as such can no longer be integrated into Russia's empire resurgent under whatever name and terms without taking it out of that first, which would be near impossible, and that's their problem with Ukraine.

Then Russia can learn to live without Ukraine. It's painful, but it can be done. Germany previously viewed the Polish Corridor situation as being intolerable but now successfully lives with a much worse situation, for instance.
 

Marduk

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Then Russia can learn to live without Ukraine. It's painful, but it can be done. Germany previously viewed the Polish Corridor situation as being intolerable but now successfully lives with a much worse situation, for instance.
Ukraine is more than a mere corridor, and Germany still has its huge industrial economy to feel good about itself. It's going to be much harder for Russia to cope.
 

WolfBear

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Ukraine is more than a mere corridor, and Germany still has its huge industrial economy to feel good about itself. It's going to be much harder for Russia to cope.

Russians should learn a thing or two from the Israelis in regards to this, frankly!
 

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