Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

I wonder when exactly Ukraine actually tried to entrap Russian citizens.
Probably could find some. Probably it would also involve some Russian citizens doing such things, that if an Ukrainian citizen was caught doing them in Moscow, he would end up in gulag, or accidentally hitting a bullet while falling out of a window.

Yep, by his logic, Israel would have been perfectly justified in conquering all of Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq if it would have actually had the capacity to do this while those countries would have still been hostile to Israel--and presumably subsequently expelling their populations en masse due to them being a hostile element and also because Israel needs all of that additional space since Israel, unlike Russia and Western countries, actually has a relatively high total fertility rate.

And Yeah, as I said, if countries' own views on their security were paramount, then Germany would have been justified in waging a preventative war against the Franco-Russians in 1914 even without the Sarajevo murders, as would Austria-Hungary have been in waging a preventative war against Serbia during the same time (again, even without the Sarajevo murders):



And Nazi Germany would have been justified in attacking Czechoslovakia and Poland because it could have claimed to have feared Western encirclement, with Czechoslovakia and Poland being French and/or British allies. When your own logic can be used to justify Nazi aggression, well, it probably is time to think about adopting some different and better logic.

That's my point. If you are on an imperial roll, and you need an excuse to invade an opportune target, with enough imagination you can justify invading any country.
It's basically international relations equivalent of "I've punched him and took his wallet and watch because he looked at me the wrong way\didn't give me a cigarette i asked for\had wrong soccer team's shirt\didn't give me spare change".
Hell, even some grand strategy games now include some sort of "make up a cassus belli" mechanic that requires time and/or spending some kind of political influence resource.
 
Probably could find some. Probably it would also involve some Russian citizens doing such things, that if an Ukrainian citizen was caught doing them in Moscow, he would end up in gulag, or accidentally hitting a bullet while falling out of a window.


That's my point. If you are on an imperial roll, and you need an excuse to invade an opportune target, with enough imagination you can justify invading any country.
It's basically international relations equivalent of "I've punched him and took his wallet and watch because he looked at me the wrong way\didn't give me a cigarette i asked for\had wrong soccer team's shirt\didn't give me spare change".
Hell, even some grand strategy games now include some sort of "make up a cassus belli" mechanic that requires time and/or spending some kind of political influence resource.

That's why a Ukrainian citizen should do these kinds of things outside of Russia, no? Russia is a very shady country. People die and disappear there in strange and mysterious ways. @ATP has a point when he refers to it as KGB-stan. Russia became REALLY rotten as a result of decades of Communist rule. :(

Yeah. And honestly, whatever excuses are made can simply be after-the-fact rationalizations since Anatoly Karlin has previously said that Ukrainian NATO membership is not a threat to Russia because we now live in the ICBM age and that the main goal for Russia in conquering Ukraine is to secure Ukraine's human capital for itself:


This February 2022 article of his has aged no better than this similar article of his from 2010 lol:


Russia really is a loser country lol! :D Which in a way is sad because many of my ancestors are from there, but so long as it remains KGB-stan, it's probably for the best, unfortunately. Having Russia defect to the West via a successful color revolution and become another Poland would be really nice, though. People are not randomly murdered or poisoned in Poland, after all.
 
That's why a Ukrainian citizen should do these kinds of things outside of Russia, no? Russia is a very shady country. People die and disappear there in strange and mysterious ways. @ATP has a point when he refers to it as KGB-stan. Russia became REALLY rotten as a result of decades of Communist rule. :(

Yeah. And honestly, whatever excuses are made can simply be after-the-fact rationalizations since Anatoly Karlin has previously said that Ukrainian NATO membership is not a threat to Russia because we now live in the ICBM age and that the main goal for Russia in conquering Ukraine is to secure Ukraine's human capital for itself:


This February 2022 article of his has aged no better than this similar article of his from 2010 lol:

The great irony of this is that Russia doesn't really have much use for extra human capital other than stroking the ego of its nationalists with memetic "pop number goes up" (no better than western immigration lobbyists btw). It's bad at utilizing human capital, its system of government makes fixing that near impossible, and as such it's economy is highly resource based. Frankly the leaders probably care more about the land under the human capital than the human capital itself. After all that means more land for cronies to manage, some of it may even have resources to add to the resource economy, cronies are made happy, power of the great leader is solidified.

Russia really is a loser country lol! :D Which in a way is sad because many of my ancestors are from there, but so long as it remains KGB-stan, it's probably for the best, unfortunately. Having Russia defect to the West via a successful color revolution and become another Poland would be really nice, though. People are not randomly murdered or poisoned in Poland, after all.
It's a big struggle for Russia to get sane governance due to its resource curse combines with de facto land colonialism, which deceptively allows one to hide the "modern colonialism problems" that have led Spain, France and UK to shed vast majority of their huge empires - as contrary to what SJWs think, all these lands weren't making them rich, on the contrary, somewhere around the industrial age they became a drain on the treasury that they could no longer afford.
But with overseas colonies, it's easy to see them as separate, draw a line, count their incomes and expenses separately, and write them off if needed.
With land-continuous empires, it's nowhere near that easy, and on top of that, there is the resource issue. So to force the central government to run the economy and supporting services in a way that would create world competitive industries and services so that it can fund itself, they would need to be forced into such need by losing the resource income stream... But that's their current main source of government revenue, while doing such a massive economic turnaround would require truly mind blowing amounts of money. And to hold all these more and less exotic lands with their resources, they also need to keep the locals down to keep the resources flowing and cheap... And liberal, democratic governments are not well suited to do that. But if they won't, they won't have much money to do anything at all, including the basics.
The comparison to Iran is quite spot on, while Iraq and Saudi Arabia peek right from behind it. "Resource curse" driven economies create very perverse incentives to the ruling class it seems, and unless it was created and cultured to resist such well before the big resource income became available (Norway), it doesn't seem many countries are good at avoiding this trap.
 
The great irony of this is that Russia doesn't really have much use for extra human capital other than stroking the ego of its nationalists with memetic "pop number goes up" (no better than western immigration lobbyists btw). It's bad at utilizing human capital, its system of government makes fixing that near impossible, and as such it's economy is highly resource based. Frankly the leaders probably care more about the land under the human capital than the human capital itself. After all that means more land for cronies to manage, some of it may even have resources to add to the resource economy, cronies are made happy, power of the great leader is solidified.


It's a big struggle for Russia to get sane governance due to its resource curse combines with de facto land colonialism, which deceptively allows one to hide the "modern colonialism problems" that have led Spain, France and UK to shed vast majority of their huge empires - as contrary to what SJWs think, all these lands weren't making them rich, on the contrary, somewhere around the industrial age they became a drain on the treasury that they could no longer afford.
But with overseas colonies, it's easy to see them as separate, draw a line, count their incomes and expenses separately, and write them off if needed.
With land-continuous empires, it's nowhere near that easy, and on top of that, there is the resource issue. So to force the central government to run the economy and supporting services in a way that would create world competitive industries and services so that it can fund itself, they would need to be forced into such need by losing the resource income stream... But that's their current main source of government revenue, while doing such a massive economic turnaround would require truly mind blowing amounts of money. And to hold all these more and less exotic lands with their resources, they also need to keep the locals down to keep the resources flowing and cheap... And liberal, democratic governments are not well suited to do that. But if they won't, they won't have much money to do anything at all, including the basics.
The comparison to Iran is quite spot on, while Iraq and Saudi Arabia peek right from behind it. "Resource curse" driven economies create very perverse incentives to the ruling class it seems, and unless it was created and cultured to resist such well before the big resource income became available (Norway), it doesn't seem many countries are good at avoiding this trap.

An interesting article about Russia from a demographer whom even Anatoly Karlin appears to admire:


And Yes, if more people were always a blessing (at least when they had high IQs and were more-or-less culturally compatible), then one should absolutely become a cheerleader for cognitively elitist mass immigration policies. The great irony is that the average Pole in October 1912 was very likely more Russophilic than even the average eastern Ukrainian is right now. Annexing a couple dozen million potential subversives doesn't exactly strike me as a recipe for success. Even the average eastern Ukrainian nowadays might very well be more pro-Western than the average western--and certainly central--Ukrainian was a decade ago.

And Yes, the resource curse is certainly a very real problem. Even more so when it is combined with chronic corruption, as in places such as Russia.
 
And Yes, if more people were always a blessing (at least when they had high IQs and were more-or-less culturally compatible), then one should absolutely become a cheerleader for cognitively elitist mass immigration policies. The great irony is that the average Pole in October 1912 was very likely more Russophilic than even the average eastern Ukrainian is right now. Annexing a couple dozen million potential subversives doesn't exactly strike me as a recipe for success. Even the average eastern Ukrainian nowadays might very well be more pro-Western than the average western--and certainly central--Ukrainian was a decade ago.
In both cases, there is a difference between a completely random bunch of people who don't agree about much, not even what language to speak, nevermind sociocultural and political issues, and a nation with some kind of shared culture, history, ideals, traditions and so on to unite around, and help them establish at least some common lines of understanding and rules. Each million of immigrants from random places around the world makes a country somewhat closer to the former model, for at minimum several generations.

And Yes, the resource curse is certainly a very real problem. Even more so when it is combined with chronic corruption, as in places such as Russia.
That's a chicken or egg question. All countries afflicted with the resource curse have massive corruption. It ensures local corruptocrats get rich easily, so of course the country has a lot of them, and they have a lot of money to buy power with.
 
In both cases, there is a difference between a completely random bunch of people who don't agree about much, not even what language to speak, nevermind sociocultural and political issues, and a nation with some kind of shared culture, history, ideals, traditions and so on to unite around, and help them establish at least some common lines of understanding and rules. Each million of immigrants from random places around the world makes a country somewhat closer to the former model, for at minimum several generations.


That's a chicken or egg question. All countries afflicted with the resource curse have massive corruption. It ensures local corruptocrats get rich easily, so of course the country has a lot of them, and they have a lot of money to buy power with.

Russian nationalists think that Ukrainians are very culturally compatible with them, ignoring the fact that the events of the last ten years and especially of the last year have made Ukrainians really, really hate Russians' guts.

It appears to be somewhat less severe in the Gulf states, though:

2560px-Map_of_countries_by_Corruption_Perceptions_Index_%282021%29.svg.png
 
Russian nationalists think that Ukrainians are very culturally compatible with them, ignoring the fact that the events of the last ten years and especially of the last year have made Ukrainians really, really hate Russians' guts.
That's a lot like saying that the British are culturally compatible with the Irish and Americans.
Which in many ways is true... but for the purpose they are implying, that's not a safe assumption.

It appears to be somewhat less severe in the Gulf states, though:

2560px-Map_of_countries_by_Corruption_Perceptions_Index_%282021%29.svg.png
That's like saying that you see somewhat better than the guy with a cane and a service dog.
In case of the monarchies it helps that they don't have to pretend that they don't own all the resources and use them for own family benefit, it's official there, it is the law, so it's not corruption.
 
Last edited:
I made thread about russian strategic culture,where i would write about great russian theories and how they failed to implement them -
But,basically,their theory ws to made short/less then month/ victorious non-wars,where to the last moment they would deny that they attacked,and then ,using diplomacy,made bussines as usual.
They also considered Moscov as island between West and Asia,and wanted to act as mediator.
They also do not wanted any more conqest except Belaruss,and wait till Europe fall - then they would take Baltics,Poland and whatever they could take.

Very good theory.We all see,how it worked.
But - they are kgbstan,it could be part of their genial plan to take over Europe.Coping tsar plan from 1812 - first lost and burn Moscov,then take Paris.
 
Russian state owned media are going full Goebbels now:


Not going to lie... That News Producer guy is triggering my Gaydar. Can't help but wonder if he's going so hard on the Genocide fapping to cover up his personal indiscretions and lurid tastes which are frowned upon in Mother Russia.

Russian FSB Gaydar must be several generations behind the Wests... Just saying.
 
Apparently Semen (heh) Pegov, aka WarGonzo was injured in the foot while covering/propagandizing the War. .



I don't want to be mean, especially if he's seriously maimed, but this isn't surprising to me. His journalism hasn't had a leg to stand on for a while now.

Regardless reporting on Semen's fate or condition at this juncture would be premature.
 
Putin is simply upset that he might soon lose his Lordship of Kherson. ;)
Nope.He would lost his head if he do not win.Not to angry mob or russian non-existing patriots,but his kgb friends.
So,he try to win without being killed - becouse,if he start nuking Ukraine for real,his friends would kill him,too.

At this point Russia is making the Norks look sane.

But,that are sane.They live in luxiry on backs of their slaves,and only must from time to time fire rocket,so West would have pretext to not remove them.Which they do not want anyway.
Just like they do not want remove kgbstan,and tried to save falling soviets.
 
...Yeah, I think it's safe to say that Russia has gone full on Nazi Germany. I wouldn't be surprised if they started setting up actual death camps for Ukrainians next.

Ironic, given that a key justification of the "special operation" was to "defeat the evil Neo-Nazis running Ukraine!", hah.
 
...Yeah, I think it's safe to say that Russia has gone full on Nazi Germany. I wouldn't be surprised if they started setting up actual death camps for Ukrainians next.

Ironic, given that a key justification of the "special operation" was to "defeat the evil Neo-Nazis running Ukraine!", hah.
they arleady exist.Gulags.Soviets invented them before Hitler come to power.And germans made their first concentration camps after they hear how soviets are used.
 
What actually surprised me is that he was apparently suspended for the comments, and the RT editor in chief attributed it to temporary insanity. Obvious BS of course, but that they'd effectively describe it as insane is a surprise.
...Yeah, I think it's safe to say that Russia has gone full on Nazi Germany. I wouldn't be surprised if they started setting up actual death camps for Ukrainians next.

Ironic, given that a key justification of the "special operation" was to "defeat the evil Neo-Nazis running Ukraine!", hah.
Makes sense. Muscovite totalitarians have always considered gulags more efficient than outright death camps, easier on the PR too.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top