Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[LordsFire]

I can assure you no US diplomat would casually say "We can't do that".
Especially if you sre asking a country to give up part of thier country.

Elon is trying to do what Macron tried early on.
It didn't work and the Ukrainians cussed him out as well.

When you are under war, you stop carrying about pleasantries. Ask anyone who deployed if they were stopping cussing

When you are a diplomat, you do not tell someone who is already giving you tangible important support to 'F off.'

You say something like, "Sir, I respect that you want the fighting and killing to end, but I can tell you with absolute confidence that if Russia is not forced completely out, more people will die, both during their occupation, and when they make their next move to grab more of the nation in a few years after rearming and reforming their military."

You make it clear that you cannot compromise on this, why you can't, and you do so while maintaining cordial relations.

 

[Bacle]

Elon also said that Ukraine should go along with the annexation of thier territory and give up Donbass and Crimea to Russia.
Which is whybthey told him to fuck off

Elon is/was scared of Russian threats about using tac nukes in Ukraine, and does not want nuclear war to break out before he can create his Mars colony. He also likely wasn't fully aware of some of the atrocities Russia has committed in Ukraine that make his 'referendum/vote' idea worthless.

Yes, Musk did sound like an uninformed, appeasement-leaning dumbass, however his fears are not baseless.

 

[Marduk]

Also, Melnyk is not a dude who has been deployed to the front-lines, lmao. He's been involved with the Ukrainian diplomatic service since 1997 and in Germany since 2014 according to a quick look at his Wiki article. He isn't a child nor some traumatized soul, and has no excuse for his behavior period.

Yeah, he isn't good at being a diplomat, and it has been recognized in Ukrainian government too.

Zelenskiy Removes Ukraine's Ambassador To Germany, Others In Diplomatic Shake-Up

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has dismissed Kyiv's ambassadors to five countries, including Germany, and several other envoys, according to presidential decrees announced on July 9.

www.rferl.org

Elon is/was scared of Russian threats about using tac nukes in Ukraine, and does not want nuclear war to break out before he can create his Mars colony. He also likely wasn't fully aware of some of the atrocities Russia has committed in Ukraine that make his 'referendum/vote' idea worthless.

Yes, Musk did sound like an uninformed, appeasement-leaning dumbass, however his fears are not baseless.

Finally Putin has found someone important who reacts positively to his scare tactics, and guess Xi was quick to follow up on copying someone else's discovery

 

[The Original Sixth]

Will Uncle Sam foot the bill?

Probably.

The war is probably hurting his electric car business. It's little wonder why he wants it to end. He probably feels as though a peace deal would be win-win. Musk doesn't seem to understand that it's too late for that. Too many people have died in Ukraine and Russia has been humiliated. Ukraine cannot forgive the barbarism and Russia may not survive both losing the war and accepting the public humiliation.

 

[lloyd007]

I can assure you no US diplomat would casually say "We can't do that".
Especially if you sre asking a country to give up part of thier country.

Elon is trying to do what Macron tried early on.
It didn't work and the Ukrainians cussed him out as well.

When you are under war, you stop carrying about pleasantries. Ask anyone who deployed if they were stopping cussing

And Ukraine doesn't seem to be getting much help from France right now... maybe France was never gonna help... but maybe there is some link between the lack of civility and of support.

When you're fighting your war largely with material you didn't / can't build with training you didn't / couldn't organize or provide on your home soil, being ungrateful entitled asshats is... not the greatest... and it's not like Elon and the Ukrainian undiplomatic corps were on or right behind the front lines where circumstances might explain and to a certain extent excuse their actions.

And Starlink allowing Ukraine to quickly transition to a near completely secure and reliable comms system when the Russians largely disrupted if not outright destroyed their previous system was not a small thing.

Acting like their subreddit Fandumb was just dumb.

 

[Bacle]

And Ukraine doesn't seem to be getting much help from France right now... maybe France was never gonna help... but maybe there is some link between the lack of civility and of support.

When you're fighting your war largely with material you didn't / can't build with training you didn't / couldn't organize or provide on your home soil, being ungrateful entitled asshats is... not the greatest... and it's not like Elon and the Ukrainian undiplomatic corps were on or right behind the front lines where circumstances might explain and to a certain extent excuse their actions.

And Starlink allowing Ukraine to quickly transition to a near completely secure and reliable comms system when the Russians largely disrupted if not outright destroyed their previous system was not a small thing.

Acting like their subreddit Fandumb was just dumb.

France just sent Ukraine some AA systems; Macron knows Putin is beyond reason anymore, and that his own gov won't stand him siding with Putin or not backing Ukraine.

Musk should be compensated for helping Ukraine out, and not be forced to 'donate' the not small bandwidth Ukraine is using. However this just means some of Ukraine's aid money just needs to go directly to Musk to keep the Starlinks up.

Also, in some areas the Ukrainian's have advanced close enough to Russian troops that they are entering areas of no Starlink service because they had been Russian held, and expected to stay Russian held for a while, till a relatively short time ago. So there is the issue that if you turn on service in that 'hex', Russian's may be able to use it to, if they have any captured or privately purchased Starlink units.

However, Elon should have handled this privately to begin with; even if it's on Twitter, DM's are a thing.

And subdividing coverage areas to ensure Russian's cannot use Starlink should be possible with better programming/beam-forming.

 

[lloyd007]

France just sent Ukraine some AA systems; Macron knows Putin is beyond reason anymore, and that his own gov won't stand him siding with Putin or not backing Ukraine.

It's still a token 'See! We're helping! Now go away...' contribution especially considering French companies like Total are still doing business without much to any threat from their government.

However, Elon should have handled this privately to begin with; even if it's on Twitter, DM's are a thing.

Musk has a PR team that he might or might not listen to and is a native of South Africa largely living in the USA, Ukraine has a diplomatic corps that is an arm of their government, the burden of civility and diplomacy when Musk says something most Ukrainians find disagreeable rests on the diplomatic corps, not Musk whose duties and purposes are not to be a nation's advocates with other nations.

 

[Zachowon]

Oh wow, really? That was an incredibly stupid thing for Musk to say.

Exactly

If you're a diplomat and can't think of anything diplomatic to say, you probably should not say anything at all, to paraphrase an old saying. In general, maintaining pleasantries even under enormous stress is literally a part of the job of being a diplomat and while embassies are often closed & relations terminated during wartime, Ukraine is obviously not at war with the US in general or with Elon Musk specifically. (Keeping in mind that he wasn't actually making a demand of Ukraine to surrender or whatever BTW, literally all he did was ask a question and open a poll on Twitter - absolutely not something worth getting so mad over that you jeopardize the continued availability of an important service to Ukraine)

Also, Melnyk is not a dude who has been deployed to the front-lines, lmao. He's been involved with the Ukrainian diplomatic service since 1997 and in Germany since 2014 according to a quick look at his Wiki article. He isn't a child nor some traumatized soul, and has no excuse for his behavior period.

His country Is at war and defending.
Do I agree with what he said?
Yes.
Would I have said it? Oh for sure.

But do I agree a diplomat should sya that? In some cases yes in others no.

It's still a token 'See! We're helping! Now go away...' contribution especially considering French companies like Total are still doing business without much to any threat from their government.


Musk has a PR team that he might or might not listen to and is a native of South Africa largely living in the USA, Ukraine has a diplomatic corps that is an arm of their government, the burden of civility and diplomacy when Musk says something most Ukrainians find disagreeable rests on the diplomatic corps, not Musk whose duties and purposes are not to be a nation's advocates with other nations.

The French military want to help, and France has always been a weapons exporter

 

[Husky_Khan]

France did donate 24 Caesar SPG's including a quarter of their active amount of them. And recently three of their forty or so M270 Variant MLRS Systems. But yeah as per like a share of GDP it's been comparatively smaller compared to other countries in NATO perhaps.

 

[Megadeath]

France just sent Ukraine some AA systems; Macron knows Putin is beyond reason anymore, and that his own gov won't stand him siding with Putin or not backing Ukraine.

Musk should be compensated for helping Ukraine out, and not be forced to 'donate' the not small bandwidth Ukraine is using. However this just means some of Ukraine's aid money just needs to go directly to Musk to keep the Starlinks up.

Also, in some areas the Ukrainian's have advanced close enough to Russian troops that they are entering areas of no Starlink service because they had been Russian held, and expected to stay Russian held for a while, till a relatively short time ago. So there is the issue that if you turn on service in that 'hex', Russian's may be able to use it to, if they have any captured or privately purchased Starlink units.

However, Elon should have handled this privately to begin with; even if it's on Twitter, DM's are a thing.

And subdividing coverage areas to ensure Russian's cannot use Starlink should be possible with better programming/beam-forming.

Didn't Musk say that wasn't the issue with why it wasn't always usable? I seem to recall an article suggesting it was more because of Russian EW systems.

As for the situation, Musk's poll was dumb. About as dumb as his suggestion of settling the war by fist fighting Putin. It should have been ignored by Ukrainian officials the same way. Whatever he said, it had no tangible effect on the situation whereas the response from the dumb diplomat obviously did and it's literally their job to know and do better. It was incredibly generous of Musk to provide Starlink to start with. (I mean, has any other private entity made any contribution that compares? It's been more important, vital and timely than many countries help!) It's entirely reasonable for him to decide that as a private business he can't continue to give service away. It's childish and petty that he's made that decision for this reason, at this moment. Neither side exactly making themselves look great with this, but in the scheme of things it's not a huge deal and the best thing to do is put it in the rear view mirror and forget it.

 

[Bacle]

Didn't Musk say that wasn't the issue with why it wasn't always usable? I seem to recall an article suggesting it was more because of Russian EW systems.

As for the situation, Musk's poll was dumb. About as dumb as his suggestion of settling the war by fist fighting Putin. It should have been ignored by Ukrainian officials the same way. Whatever he said, it had no tangible effect on the situation whereas the response from the dumb diplomat obviously did and it's literally their job to know and do better. It was incredibly generous of Musk to provide Starlink to start with. (I mean, has any other private entity made any contribution that compares? It's been more important, vital and timely than many countries help!) It's entirely reasonable for him to decide that as a private business he can't continue to give service away. It's childish and petty that he's made that decision for this reason, at this moment. Neither side exactly making themselves look great with this, but in the scheme of things it's not a huge deal and the best thing to do is put it in the rear view mirror and forget it.

I think Musk refering to Crimea being part Ukraine as a 'mistake' is what pissed the diplomat off; that's a line a lot of Vatnik's like to toss around.

Acting like the 'annexed' territory will not be reclaimed, despite active advances on the ground, also was rather uninformed/stupid of Musk, and likely contributed to the outrage on Ukraine's part.

 

[WolfBear]

@DarthOne

Next time you want to 'both sides' the conflict, remember which side is kidnapping children and deporting them, and which side is not.

Yeah, but stupid Russians say that such behavior is actually BASED!

 

[WolfBear]

Does it happen to strike you that Russia was rather underwhelming as a military power?

-Crimean War: Loss
-Russo-Japanese War: Loss
-World War I: Stalemate, but its army loses the will to fight even though the Americans have already entered the war by then
-Polish-Soviet War: Loss, albeit not quite a total one (Poles fail to hold Kiev)
-Winter War: Win, but not quite a total one and by the narrowest of margins
-World War II: Near-loss followed by a victory but with extremely massive casualties and possibly only due to Western aid such as Lend-Lease
-Afghanistan: Stalemate, followed by a loss after the Soviet withdrawal from there
-First Chechen War: Loss
-Russo-Ukrainian War: Looking like either a stalemate or a loss or at the very best a Pyrrhic victory

 

[Husky_Khan]

Whole Ru unit's fragging their commanders and defecting/surrendering.

Seems sus. At least picturing them would be extremely irresponsible. These guys have families. Unless that's a placeholder picture.

 

[LordsFire]

This is the sort of thing that can easily turn into a cascade.

Every time that it happens, it'll be easier for it to happen again. And in the end, if you want someone to act as a soldier, you have to give them a gun at least right before they go into battle; that's when you find out who they fear and hate more.

You, or the people you're sending them to fight.

 

[Bacle]

This is the sort of thing that can easily turn into a cascade.

Every time that it happens, it'll be easier for it to happen again. And in the end, if you want someone to act as a soldier, you have to give them a gun at least right before they go into battle; that's when you find out who they fear and hate more.

You, or the people you're sending them to fight.

You forget the wisdom of Stalingrad; one man takes the rifle, one man takes the ammo, when the one carrying the rifle dies the one with the ammo picks it up. The Russian military still thinks like that, and is headed by an A-stan war vet who killed people with his tank when the Wall fell, and has been dealing with Syria for years now.

Though even in Stalingrad the Russians weren't lacking winter gear in the way they are now.

I expect open 'blocking detachments' in the near future.

 

[Sailor.X]

You forget the wisdom of Stalingrad; one man takes the rifle, one man takes the ammo, when the one carrying the rifle dies the one with the ammo picks it up. The Russian military still thinks like that, and is headed by an A-stan war vet who killed people with his tank when the Wall fell, and has been dealing with Syria for years now.

Though even in Stalingrad the Russians weren't lacking winter gear in the way they are now.

I expect open 'blocking detachments' in the near future.

Speaking as a person who did Antisub Patrols in the North Atlantic during Winter. Being cold and wet for even a short period of time is really really really not fun. Those Russian troops won't have the benefit being some place warm and dry.

 

[LordsFire]

You forget the wisdom of Stalingrad; one man takes the rifle, one man takes the ammo, when the one carrying the rifle dies the one with the ammo picks it up. The Russian military still thinks like that, and is headed by an A-stan war vet who killed people with his tank when the Wall fell, and has been dealing with Syria for years now.

Though even in Stalingrad the Russians weren't lacking winter gear in the way they are now.

I expect open 'blocking detachments' in the near future.

The thing is, even then you're still giving men rifles and ammunition. Maybe only half of them, but it only takes one to kill the CO and political officer.

 

[Megadeath]

So, Putin said that 16,000 draftees are already in action. But that doesn't sound like a good thing. At the absolute most, if they were joined up the day of the announcement, and there was no travel or wait time, that means they've had 3 weeks training right?

Also, any thoughts on the reduction from 300 thousand to 220? Lack of capacity to train and equip them, or a response to public backlash? I somehow doubt it's because they're so pleased with the progress the last few weeks they decided they just don't need them after all.

 

[Husky_Khan]

More Mobik Mobilization News.

A long thread showing pictures of mobilized troops across Russia. Not all of the pictures are even lol-worthy.



Russia going forward with attempting to recruit a 'Volunteer Battalion' in Occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.



I mean technically mortars are kinda artillery. And if you can handle a battalion, you should easily be able to command a platoon of even littler tubes!



Russian Draft Officer found dead... hanging from a fence. Unknown if suicide or... something else. This occurred near Vladivostok.



Three mobilized men, including a middle aged lawyer Andrei Nikiforov of St. Petersburg, were killed with ten days of being mobilized, "fighting" near Lysychansk in the Donetsk Oblast.