Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[TheRomanSlayer]

Hold on, is there also a danger to NATO member states running out of weapons and equipment to give to Ukraine? I'm not sure if NATO has retooled some of their industries to make the very same weapons Ukraine needs.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Hold on, is there also a danger to NATO member states running out of weapons and equipment to give to Ukraine? I'm not sure if NATO has retooled some of their industries to make the very same weapons Ukraine needs.

There is that danger. How much has Europe deindustrialized to the green agenda they outsourced their industry overseas to not be prepared for industrial warfare?

 

[LordsFire]

Hold on, is there also a danger to NATO member states running out of weapons and equipment to give to Ukraine? I'm not sure if NATO has retooled some of their industries to make the very same weapons Ukraine needs.

Yes and no. Wartime consumption always rapidly depletes peace-time stockpiles, and it takes months to fully spin up military production when the demand finally hits.

Production is already starting to spool up on various military goods, but it remains to be seen how fast that will happen compared to stockpile exhaustion. That there hasn't been an urgent need for accelerating all of this in decades has certainly made it harder/take longer to get things properly spun up.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

So it would be safe to say that the Greenies in Europe are technically de facto (or de jure) Kremlin assets then? I'm more worried about the American supplies running out than the European ones. How much ammunition was disposed of by NATO after the Cold War ended? If it was a bit, even that might be fatal.

 

[Doomsought]

I don't think we have ever seen full wartime production since before guided missiles have been adopted. It will be interesting to see what bottlenecks show up in the supply lines. There are many ways it can turn out, the silicon is an obvious one, but there is also the issue of missile propellants having necessarily interesting chemistry, and often highly toxic.

Gunpowders have less interesting chemistry, but the current fad of limiting nitrogen usage can also show up here, since there is rarely an explosive that does not rely on nitrogen chemistry.

 

[PsihoKekec]

they have in reserve at least 2000 of them.

More than 5000 are in the deep store and you are getting those. Refurbishing and modernisation process for those is slow.

Pre-digital models are still better then Pt91

They are not, if we look at the 80's M1A1, the main advantage would be better turret armor, better ammo (if ammericans deliver the modern stuff) and higher road speed. FCS would be actually better on PT-91, better off-road mobility and don't get me started on the fuel consumption (no power generator in older models).

it takes months to fully spin up military production when the demand finally hits.

That was in the Cold War, but now, with 30 years of aggressive de-industrialisation it would take years in the best case scenario. Keep in mind that thanks to the magic of mangerialism, we have massive lack of industry skilled workers with generational gap looking more and more abyssal. And this is not an issue that can be solved overnight, for the last 20-30 years the physical work, even skilled one, has been downright vilified, if you did not go to uni you were practically a subhuman and despite efforts of people like Mike Rowe, the effects are now well entrenched and it will take generations to undo the damage, as it would take for us to off the debt driven economy and the elites are having none of it. The trades training courses are too few, far from filled and at best half of those taking them are fit for work they learn for.
And let us not go into whole sectors of manufacturing being exported overseas.

How much ammunition was disposed of by NATO after the Cold War ended?

Most of it, some of it was sold to third-world countries, but much of it was destroyed. Nominally the NATO countries keep the 90 day stock for their much reduced militaries, I think the artillery normative for tube artillery is one combat load per day, which by the Ukraine war standards is insufficient.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

So it will take years for NATO to rebuild that lost capability to even be a reliable supplier for Ukraine? I’m not sure if this was true, but Russia kept all of their ammunition in stock, including some that was supposed to be destroyed after the Cold War ended.

 

[Aldarion]

So it would be safe to say that the Greenies in Europe are technically de facto (or de jure) Kremlin assets then? I'm more worried about the American supplies running out than the European ones. How much ammunition was disposed of by NATO after the Cold War ended? If it was a bit, even that might be fatal.

Oh, the Leftists of any given country are always the best asset enemies of that country have. That is why Germany sent Lenin to Russia during World War II.

So it will take years for NATO to rebuild that lost capability to even be a reliable supplier for Ukraine? I’m not sure if this was true, but Russia kept all of their ammunition in stock, including some that was supposed to be destroyed after the Cold War ended.

It seems to be true, and is also creating some issues IIRC...

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

The nightmare scenario would be that NATO actually runs out of ammo to give to Ukraine, and equipment as well. How many HiMARS does the US need for itself and other members of NATO? If they’re going to keep giving most of their equipment, then they would soon run out of ammo and equipment to give. And retooling them would take a long time, unless the US does a big brain move and contracts a third party to produce the ammo needed (I would probably say a Third World country that already has a manufacturing capability).

The idea of NATO running out of stuff to give to Ukraine would be a horrific nightmare that only the most devious of ex-KGB agents would dream of. I mean, can you imagine non-NATO US allies also giving Ukraine their supply of ammo as well? I could picture South Korea giving a bit of their K-1 tanks and K2 assault rifles, but Australia did donate some of their equipment to Ukraine.

 

[paulobrito]

Also, remember that NATO used a considerable part of its stocks in the many many small wars that their constituents participated in over the last 30ish years.
And, yes, after the adoption of PGMs (not guided missiles, PGMs - Precision Guided AMunnition, Paveway are guided bombs, Excalibur a guided arty shell, etc), the massive production of ammo is a thing of the past in the NATO countries.

 

[PsihoKekec]

I’m not sure if this was true, but Russia kept all of their ammunition in stock,

It didn't, they sold some to third world countries (Ukrainians even more), had multiple depot explosions over the years and started destroying the oldest and most dangerous ammunition, but there were snags, like disposal facility exploding. In general they kept lot more ammo than than the West and kept a higher rate of replacement production.

The idea of NATO running out of stuff to give to Ukraine would be a horrific nightmare

In a way it already has, munition supplies (especially artillery) are much less than what Ukrainians need, so they have to ration fire support.

 

[Marduk]

Hold on, is there also a danger to NATO member states running out of weapons and equipment to give to Ukraine? I'm not sure if NATO has retooled some of their industries to make the very same weapons Ukraine needs.

Not many are using their military's actively used gear, and those who do, only if they manage to arrange relatively swift replacements in more modern equivalents, like Poland does with tanks to end up with M1A2's instead of export T-72 variants in 1-2 years. Most of the stuff given is fresh production or unused reserves.
At first obviously wanted to stick to one model and have Germany provide Leopard 2's, but the reality is that Germany isn't going to give away all it's tanks, and it can't provide more than a few dozens a year in total even with the best effort, which would more likely be spread over several countries, including previously signed deals, nothing like the few hundreds of tanks Poland needs yesterday.

 

[LordsFire]

The nightmare scenario would be that NATO actually runs out of ammo to give to Ukraine, and equipment as well. How many HiMARS does the US need for itself and other members of NATO? If they’re going to keep giving most of their equipment, then they would soon run out of ammo and equipment to give. And retooling them would take a long time, unless the US does a big brain move and contracts a third party to produce the ammo needed (I would probably say a Third World country that already has a manufacturing capability).

The idea of NATO running out of stuff to give to Ukraine would be a horrific nightmare that only the most devious of ex-KGB agents would dream of. I mean, can you imagine non-NATO US allies also giving Ukraine their supply of ammo as well? I could picture South Korea giving a bit of their K-1 tanks and K2 assault rifles, but Australia did donate some of their equipment to Ukraine.

The thing is, for weapons that are currently in use, NATO (mostly the US) is still actively producing ammunition. This is part of why my earlier answer was 'yes and no.'

Are HIMARS rockets being used faster than they're being produced right now?

Sure, but they are being produced.

Are 155mm shells being used faster than they're being produced?

Sure, but they are being produced.


NATO isn't going to run itself dry, and Russia isn't producing new ammunition anywhere near as fast as it's been going through it either, especially when it comes to PGMs. The only real strategic crisis we're potentially looking at, is if NATO exhausts too many stockpiles against Russia, and then China goes hot. Even then, the danger vatniks talk about is over-hyped, because what we're giving Ukraine only covers a small selection of weapon systems, and if China goes hot (almost certainly to invade Taiwan), it'll be a naval and air war, not a land invasion.

And we're not exactly loading down Ukraine with naval or air-to-air weapons.

 

[WolfBear]

Anatoly Karlin 🧬⏩ (@powerfultakes)

It was on the path to do an Operation Storm on the Donbass sometime during the 2020s, and as the course of the present war has shown, it was not actually an entirely unrealistic aspiration.

nitter.1d4.us

If Russia wanted to prevent a Ukrainian version of Operation Storm in the Donbass, then simply sending Russian troops into the Donbass and perhaps outright annexing the Donbass would have been enough. There was absolutely no need to bring the war to the rest of Ukraine, which is why even Russia's former supporters in the West have generally condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

 

[Arch Dornan]

But were they civilians?
It does seem like an intentional attack on some people... Who were standing around cars doing something near some interesting, well secured facility with lots of black cars around.
So yeah, it's quite plausible it was FSB or some other not exactly civilian kind of civilians.
It's supposed to be around a border crossing - which is a kind of facility that Russia has also attacked since day 1 of the war:

Ukrainian state border service says troops attacked from Belarus

The Ukrainian State Border Guard Service early Thursday said Russian troops attacked Ukraine from Belarus.“At about 5:00 a.m., the state border of Ukraine in the area with the Russian Federation an…

thehill.com

We'll never know what it is. Devil's in the details as they bitched a Moldovan was also caught in the blast.

 

[Marduk]

We'll never know what it is. Devil's in the details as they bitched a Moldovan was also caught in the blast.

>They
But why isn't Moldova bitching about it?
"Oh no, how are Russians going to spy on us if their agent got killed!"
It does sound like an extremely sus place for a Moldovan citizen to be in these days, especially considering the questions about Transnistria.

 

[Arch Dornan]

>They
But why isn't Moldova bitching about it?
"Oh no, how are Russians going to spy on us if their agent got killed!"
It does sound like an extremely sus place for a Moldovan citizen to be in these days, especially considering the questions about Transnistria.

Is it bitching if every news outlet copies the words of the Moldovan foreign ministry making a statement that Moldovan citizens were harmed in claims of an Ukranian attack?

If I gave you a source from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty would you concede they may not be Russian agents?

 

[Marduk]

Is it bitching if every news outlet copies the words of the Moldovan foreign ministry making a statement that Moldovan citizens were harmed in claims of an Ukranian attack?

My point exactly, it's all just suspiciously dry statements, and a mention about their identity being established.
Where is the protest and outrage?

If I gave you a source from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty would you concede they may not be Russian agents?

Statement of what? That they are Moldovan citizens? Are you implying that it's impossible for Moldovan citizens to be Russian agents?

 

[Arch Dornan]

My point exactly, it's all just suspiciously dry statements, and a mention about their identity being established.
Where is the protest and outrage?

If there is it will be local and then global. Takes time to grow.

For every accidental collateral of a bombing it hardens opinion against those responsible.

Statement of what? That they are Moldovan citizens? Are you implying that it's impossible for Moldovan citizens to be Russian agents?

That they are people there on their own business at the crossing that's not sus. It maybe possible but don't tell the wife of the departed that.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Mark Krutov (@kromark)

Proof from May 21st: https://vk.com/wall-105334766_27668 Without this paperwork one would be fined for bringing his car to Russia and not paying the tax after the maximum allowed period of stay expired.

nitter.net

Mark Krutov (@kromark)

The border is closed, but the customs were operational, according to local media. People came there to prolong their permits for temporarily imported cars, because they were not able to leave back to Moldova or other countries...

nitter.net

Mark Krutov (@kromark)

Two guys killed and wounded by the strike were doing some paperwork near the black car on the Ukrainian video (filmed not by Switchblade itself, but probably by another drone?)

nitter.net

Mark Krutov (@kromark)

Russia claims a citizen of Moldova was killed and another is in the hospital, both "civilians". Ukraine claims FSB officer (border control is formally all FSB) was killed. The area where it happened is an office of the "Alexandrovskiy" customs control point, though.

nitter.net

Mark Krutov (@kromark)

The wounded guy was dressed as an office worker, exactly like customs clerk would be, and the killed one wore casual summer outfit (3rd guy too). No reason for FSB officers to do their paperwork on the car trunk door. Can't say for sure, but looks like a tragic UA intel mistake.

nitter.net

Mark Krutov (@kromark)

(Still, there's a possibility they may have been FSB agents, it may have been a kind of blind revenge from UA side, or other).

nitter.net

I had to get more on nitter but the sus people there were there to prolong permits for temporarily imported cars because they can't go back to Moldova or other countries.

If they don't they risk a fine. If the intention is to kill FSB then that can work as border control is formerly FSB but you'd be killing border guard staff with not much value.