Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[History Learner]

The position that the 100k estimate has practically no bearing on military casualties?

In your head, sure. In reality, no, and that's why you're too much of a coward to answer the questions I posed in response. If the 100,000 figure is mostly civilians, as you attest, you have to explain where the lack of evidence (bodies, sat photos, etc) are and why the Ukrainian Defense Minister refused to clarify the amount. If it's mostly civilians, that would be an obvious propaganda coup and if it's an accurate statement, evidence would be available to prove it. Why isn't that the case here?

Yet, we do have plenty of evidence to show large numbers of non-officially admitted casualties.

What, that the 100k estimate is mostly civilians?

Solely in your brain, sure. Would you like to try again?

If you did some math instead of juggling rhetoric like a clown you would spare yourself a lot of typing.

Which I've done several times in this thread, again, would you like to try to make an actual argument?

In early June, Ukraine claimed their official losses were 10,000 KIA and 30,000 WIA; we have no breakdown on sanitary fatalities among the WIA, and obviously Ukraine has every reason to downplay their own losses. Senior officials have stated their casualties have gone up to 500 KIA a day in Donbass alone around the middle of June, so that means on that sector of the front alone that's another 10,000 KIA and another 40,000 WIA presuming that rate of casualties has held; it's been on an upward trend since June, so I see no reason to doubt such and it's possible it's even higher now so I'm being conservative here. That's 20,000 KIA and 70,000 WIA right there, not counting other sectors since early June and assuming the Ukies were being truthful in early June.

Starts to make you realize how accurate my position is, doesn't?

That's why the 100k you quoted is an estimate too, not data, poindexter.

Indeed, which makes it so odd you make definitive statements about said data with no evidence. I can provide citations and reasoning to explain my position, you're solely consists of just claiming it and misrepresenting that which I was literally the one to quote.

 

[Megadeath]

When you are stuck in a war and your reaction is to go: "B-but what about meeee?!", then you shouldn't be surprised if people don't like you.

Because, clearly, there's no evidence to support the idea that the Russian government might promote discrimination against various minorities for scapegoating or as a distraction, and lord knows the Jews have no reason at all to be extra paranoid about such?

 

[ATP]

I have to ask: why is it no to naziland, but yes to sovietland?

Yes to soviets.I never named soviets as Russia,becouse only thing they had common was territory and part of population.Soviets basically genocided part of russian population,and turned rest into soviet shit.
Compare russian soldier behaviour in captured part of prussia in 1914 to what soviet sodiers did there during WW2.
Why kgbstan army steal washmahines in Ukraine now? becouse they are postsoviet,not russians.

And no to nazi,becouse they were germans who fought for german state and nation.And,if they win ,they would live in Europe as masters of slaves.
When soviets,after winning,lived as slaves in worst conditions then poles they enslaved.

You think I don't know? Germans and Nazi were interlinked because they succeeded getting into power and tightening their control it was beneficial to belong as a member.

They had a huge advantage thanks to Stalin's paranoia and purges but then they like many invading armies sent to invade Russia they ran into supply issues and the pissed off Russians counter invaded.

Order No. 227 was not effective Stalin rescinded it within the year.

It comes being born in Russian occupied Poland. Quite the Stalin simp he wouldn't shit on him when Kruschev asked him he got discharged instead I heard.

Germans was welcomed as liberators but basically everybody except jews - and then they fucked it.Sralin should built monument of Hitler,becouse only his stupidity let him survive.
If german was smart,they would just gave land from kolchoz to peasants - and they would not need to fight at all,becouse soviet people would kill all commies there for them.

And Rokossowski considered himself as soviet,so he was not one of us.Polish traitors who served soviets was much worst then him.If he trusted Sralin so much,he would not carry pistol with him till sralin died.

 

[Marduk]

In your head, sure. In reality, no, and that's why you're too much of a coward to answer the questions I posed in response. If the 100,000 figure is mostly civilians, as you attest, you have to explain where the lack of evidence (bodies, sat photos, etc) are and why the Ukrainian Defense Minister refused to clarify the amount. If it's mostly civilians, that would be an obvious propaganda coup and if it's an accurate statement, evidence would be available to prove it. Why isn't that the case here?

News at eleven, soldiers don't have bodies, unlike civilians!
News at eleven 2, war criminal controlled parts of warzone are known for providing free and safe access for journalists and humanitarian workers!
Stop beclowning yourself and read the very military casualty estimates you have chosen to post and apply math to the 100k figure. You can't be this dull...

Yet, we do have plenty of evidence to show large numbers of non-officially admitted casualties.

No, *we* don't, you need to share it here first, and it has to be evidence, not wild guesses and your carefully misinterpreted statements of others.

Solely in your brain, sure. Would you like to try again?

Yes, i would.
Let's do another lesson in war math for first graders.

Which I've done several times in this thread, again, would you like to try to make an actual argument?

In early June, Ukraine claimed their official losses were 10,000 KIA and 30,000 WIA; we have no breakdown on sanitary fatalities among the WIA, and obviously Ukraine has every reason to downplay their own losses. Senior officials have stated their casualties have gone up to 500 KIA a day in Donbass alone around the middle of June, so that means on that sector of the front alone that's another 10,000 KIA and another 40,000 WIA presuming that rate of casualties has held; it's been on an upward trend since June, so I see no reason to doubt such and it's possible it's even higher now so I'm being conservative here. That's 20,000 KIA and 70,000 WIA right there, not counting other sectors since early June and assuming the Ukies were being truthful in early June.

Starts to make you realize how accurate my position is, doesn't?

Starting to realize how bad is the state of education system in USA...
Do you struggle with the understanding of the term "up to"? It means that it gets this high on worst days, not every day. But lets call that a pessimistic scenario.

War math for the first grade, on your own data:
If there are 20k KIA soldiers, 70k WIA soldiers and 100k dead Ukrainians, how many dead Ukrainian civilians are there, and who constitutes the majority of Ukrainian dead, soldiers or civilians?

 

[Arch Dornan]

Germans was welcomed as liberators but basically everybody except jews - and then they fucked it.Sralin should built monument of Hitler,becouse only his stupidity let him survive.
If german was smart,they would just gave land from kolchoz to peasants - and they would not need to fight at all,becouse soviet people would kill all commies there for them.

And Rokossowski considered himself as soviet,so he was not one of us.Polish traitors who served soviets was much worst then him.If he trusted Sralin so much,h

They did but they couldn't help themselves when Hitler wanted his lebensraum.

He was fortunate compared to other Stalin simps.

 

[ATP]

They did but they couldn't help themselves when Hitler wanted his lebensraum.

He was fortunate compared to other Stalin simps.

1.Lenin do not wont gave land to peasants,too - but he did it to take power,and planned to made kolchoz later.Which sralin did for him.
If Hitler was smart,he would did the same - gave land for soviets,win war,and then take their land 10 years later,like soviets did.
But he was like boy - wanted everything now.

2.Yes,other who agree to be enemy of people was schoot.Rokossowski after being tortured still say nothing.

 

[VictortheMonarch]

No it was a bridge in the center of Ukraine. South of Kyiv.

Okay, that is good. Hopefully the Ukrainians will stop stumbling, because based on russian build up in the north, they may be attempting to reconquer those lands.

 

[Zachowon]

You mean the AD that allowed Hinds to fly through into mainland russia?

 

[Marduk]

You mean the AD that allowed Hinds to fly through into mainland russia?

As usual Russians go "quantity has a quality of its own". It's been in the news since a few weeks that Ukrainians now avoid flying expensive drones over Donbass because the Russian force concentration there is so high, that despite their poor effective radius Russian air defense systems are so many there that after they got set up, there is no room to go and operate around them like one would usually do. The downside of that strategy is that Russians can do that only in a small section of the frontline at a time and suffer from a bad case of short blanket problem, while Ukrainians use their drones with plenty of success elsewhere, like the strikes in Kursk and Briansk, deep inside Russia, that had to be done either by drones or helicopters.

 

[Zachowon]

As usual Russians go "quantity has a quality of its own". It's been in the news since a few weeks that Ukrainians now avoid flying expensive drones over Donbass because the Russian force concentration there is so high, that despite their poor effective radius Russian air defense systems are so many there that after they got set up, there is no room to go and operate around them like one would usually do. The downside of that strategy is that Russians can do that only in a small section of the frontline at a time and suffer from a bad case of short blanket problem, while Ukrainians use their drones with plenty of success elsewhere, like the strikes in Kursk and Briansk, deep inside Russia, that had to be done either by drones or helicopters.

So make them out all thier AD at the front and then go around it?

 

[Marduk]

So make them out all thier AD at the front and then go around it?

Apparently that's what's happening, meanwhile most of the Russian activity is now happening where the bulk of their air defense is, specifically to support all those troops.

 

[Zachowon]

Apparently that's what's happening, meanwhile most of the Russian activity is now happening where the bulk of their air defense is, specifically to support all those troops.

Keep your AD screen everywhere not just on the combat

 

[WolfBear]

If Hitler was smart,he would did the same - gave land for soviets,win war,and then take their land 10 years later,like soviets did.
But he was like boy - wanted everything now.

Putin declares victory in embattled Donbas region of Luhansk

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory in the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk, one day after Ukrainian forces withdrew from their last remaining bulwark of resistance in the province.

www.newsday.com

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Putin declares victory in embattled Donbas region of Luhansk

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory in the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk, one day after Ukrainian forces withdrew from their last remaining bulwark of resistance in the province.

www.newsday.com

I swear I have seen something like this before, Oh right.

 

[WolfBear]

I swear I have seen something like this before, Oh right.

Bush has a sort-of Messianic aura in that photo, interestingly enough.

 

[LordsFire]

I swear I have seen something like this before, Oh right.

A key difference there was that military victory actually had been achieved.

Most of America was about to get a hard lesson though, in the difference between military and political victory, especially when you aren't willing to play hardball.

 

[ATP]

A key difference there was that military victory actually had been achieved.

Most of America was about to get a hard lesson though, in the difference between military and political victory, especially when you aren't willing to play hardball.

Tue.And plaing hardball is costly.Czeczenya was conqered - but it cost more then 10 years,20% of Czeczen population killed,20.000 soviet KIA,and they must hold there 100.000 soldiers for that 10 years.

Czeczenya had 1 million of people.If kgbstan tr the same on Ukraine,they would need 4 millions of soldiers to occupy for 10 years,kill 8 millions of ukrainians and lost 800.000 KIA.
They do not have resources for such operation.Unless they just go and start killing everybody,but even then it cost them.

P.S Victory in Czczenya mean,that now it is Moscov which pay Czeczens,not otherwise.They do not have money to pay Ukraine after succesful occupation,too.

 

[WolfBear]

Tue.And plaing hardball is costly.Czeczenya was conqered - but it cost more then 10 years,20% of Czeczen population killed,20.000 soviet KIA,and they must hold there 100.000 soldiers for that 10 years.

Czeczenya had 1 million of people.If kgbstan tr the same on Ukraine,they would need 4 millions of soldiers to occupy for 10 years,kill 8 millions of ukrainians and lost 800.000 KIA.
They do not have resources for such operation.Unless they just go and start killing everybody,but even then it cost them.

P.S Victory in Czczenya mean,that now it is Moscov which pay Czeczens,not otherwise.They do not have money to pay Ukraine after succesful occupation,too.

Plus Chechens never actually aspired to EU membership (and were never going to be let into the EU in any case); this isn't actually the case for Ukrainians. I think that Ukrainians would be very, very angry at anyone who will ever try to deprive them of EU membership, even in the long(er)-run.

 

[ATP]

Plus Chechens never actually aspired to EU membership (and were never going to be let into the EU in any case); this isn't actually the case for Ukrainians. I think that Ukrainians would be very, very angry at anyone who will ever try to deprive them of EU membership, even in the long(er)-run.

Not important - important thing is,that even if Putin win and decide go full Sralin on them,he still do not have resources for turning them into lesser russians,as he want.Even China would not have money for something like that.

 

[WolfBear]

Top Russian security official questions whether Ukraine will 'exist on the map' in 2 years

A top Russian security official questioned whether Ukraine will "exist on the map" in two years in a threatening message posted to his social media account.

www.foxnews.com

Present-day Donbass War map: