Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)




 
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Maybe because trying to settle things peacefully os how things should be done and that every major event would instil talks.

Also, show me where you think this grouping is gonna break through.
Please, and the analysis for it.
Have you not been looking at the maps of how the fighting has progressed this week?
Also Blinken said the war goal is to weaken Russia not make peace:
 
Uh...
First time I have heard no confidence in Ukraone from the US.
Again, calling for ceasefire is part of war. You reach out for it, they don't answer, deny, what ever. You shrug and keep going.

The US said explicitly the goal is to weaken Russia. Why is this the VERY first time they tried to reach out and negotiate? Or ask for an immediate cease fire?

But again, the map is evolving where the Russians are taking so few kilos a day it makes Verdun look fast
You should relearn history if that is your take.

'We'd like all the killing and dying to stop' is an attitude some people have, you know?
Some people yes, but not the US until right now:

That you are willing to interpret such a routine diplomatic gesture as a sign of weakness, says more about how desperate you are for a sign of Russian victory, than it does about how desperate the situation is for Ukraine.
That you interpret what I am saying is being desperate for a Russian win shows what a Ukraine dick rider you are. Grow the fuck up you partisan hack.

As a reminder, while Russia has made advances in many areas, they lost the battle for Kiev, the single most important battle in the war so far. Neither side is actually in anything approaching a clear winning position, and unless Russia shows willingness to start treating this like the real war that it is, and fully mobilize, rather than as a 'special military operation,' things are much more likely to shift in favor of the Ukrainians than the Russians.

In the end though, this could still go either way.
Let's review this at the end of the month.

Russia is weakend.
A ceasefire should always be reached out to everyone
Uh huh. Right on the verge of the Donbass situation collapsing and the European and American economies facing massive recessions.

This is purely an attempt at reading something that you do not understand. It has been official line of western diplomats to call for ceasefire since the beginning of the conflict.
When western leaders start calling for continuing the war ceaselessly, that's gonna be news. But them calling for a ceasefire, that's no news at all.
Why haven't they contacted Russia until right now? They haven't spoken to the Russians since the start of the war and in fact seem to have sabotaged Zelensky's efforts at peace in Turkey last month. Russia even made concessions by pulling back from Kiev:

Zelensky said he was under pressure though to not negotiate:

Forget what politicians say in public, what actual efforts behind the scenes have they made? Macron so far was the only one trying to call Putin and work something out, though in his case it was to save the Azov guys who were trapped. Recently though he floated the idea not to back Putin into a corner, the first to publicly do so.

This is the very first time the Germans and US have tried to actually talk to Putin. Why now and not before when they were making public statements?

How about you post the whole article, instead of cropping out the part that mentions new NATO members:
Because that was editorializing by the article writer, not what was actually talked about or stated by the participants.

And characterizing this as 'begging' shows your blatant pro-Kremlin bias.
:rolleyes:
Right, because two of the largest NATO powers calling the Kremlin for the first time since the start of the war to 'urge an immediate cease fire' is the actions of confident war supporters who said their goal was to weaken Russia:

None of that sounds like the US is interested is any sort of ceasefire. What suddenly changed?

The fact is that trying to get a ceasefire going is not a bad thing, if it can actually morph into something more like a withdrawal agreement from Russia.
I hope they can work something out to stop the fighting, but if you think Russia is going to withdraw after all the bullshit that has gone on you're going to be sorely disappointed. The longer they wait to make concessions to Russia the worse the terms are going to be.
 
I'm suspecting the US won't be sending much more money to Ukraine.
The interesting thing for me is that this is all over accountability. That's literally all Paul asked for, and they can't give it to him. As much as I support Ukraine, Paul is very much correct to ask for accountability, and their refusal to go along with that as a condition shows that there were other plans for that money aside from helping Ukraine.
 
The interesting thing for me is that this is all over accountability. That's literally all Paul asked for, and they can't give it to him. As much as I support Ukraine, Paul is very much correct to ask for accountability, and their refusal to go along with that as a condition shows that there were other plans for that money aside from helping Ukraine.

Probably a bunch of pork barrel spending and kickbacks, And lots not pretend Ukraine doesn't also have its own corrupt oligarchs who probably steal foreign aid.
 
Remember that long ass convoy that had hardly any kind of an escort a while back? Perfect target for some A-10s. Shame Ukraine didn't have any handy at that point.

 
Probably a bunch of pork barrel spending and kickbacks, And lots not pretend Ukraine doesn't also have its own corrupt oligarchs who probably steal foreign aid.
Between Biden's kleptocracy, Elenski's kleptocracy and everyone in between getting their cut, as well as the Russians blowing up incoming supplies in transit and capturing the leftovers from the constantly deteriorating Ukrainain military, well, the utility the US taxpayer will get from that money is at best zero.
At worst some of those will get into the hands of various Islamic terrorist cells in Europe.

The USA spent over 6 trillion on Afghanistan and Iraq, it could not win, and most of the civilian reconstruction money ended up in the pockets of the likes of Joe Biden's brother and local potentates that promptly ran away first chance they got.

Supporting shit like this makes you retarded and an MSM zombie, good job Rand Paul.
 
Honestly when this war started I thought Ukraine would last a couple weeks.

The fact that their still fighting months laster against what was asssumed to be the second strongest army on earth is pretty impressive. I think they will probally lose the conventional war but that we will have an unconventional phase right after that. The country is going to get wreaked and I put good money on Russia committing genocide upon the ukranian people.

But Russia's demographics still remain terminally fucked, and every day this drags on the harder the next phase of the war the one where they attack nato members will be.
 
Why haven't they contacted Russia until right now?
Because the guy in question didn't want to talk to them, and now he does.
Quite a different picture of who is backing down and needs a favor.
Ever since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Defense Secretary has tried to get Sergei Shoigu to pick up the phone, at least for the purposes of deconfliction. The Russian defense minister has refused to engage … until today.
Russia even made concessions by pulling back from Kiev:
Cope harder. Realizing that you don't have resources to maintain 3 fronts and pulling back to 2 is not a concession, its very slow correction of a strategic error.

Zelensky said he was under pressure though to not negotiate:
Because Russia wasn't and still isn't interested in these negotiations as more than distraction, waste of everyone's time mixed in with occasional sneaky attempts to get one over the other side.

Forget what politicians say in public, what actual efforts behind the scenes have they made? Macron so far was the only one trying to call Putin and work something out, though in his case it was to save the Azov guys who were trapped. Recently though he floated the idea not to back Putin into a corner, the first to publicly do so.
First? Consider the stuff he was saying before the war. Its all about going back to selling dual use tech to Russia as fast as possible for him.

This is the very first time the Germans and US have tried to actually talk to Putin. Why now and not before when they were making public statements?
Just because you didn't read the news for 2 months doesn't mean it was the first time. But don't get reality pollute the purity of your Kremlin narrative...
 
Andrey Martyanov goes into deep detail regarding about real military planning vs. basementdweller gamer twitter addict that listens to the MSM.
Exccellent!


Terrain reconnaissance is a big one, I like that he highlighted that.

Incidentally, one wonders how Russia lost so many tanks due to them bogging into the mud and later being captured by Ukrainian forces after they're abandoned - which indicates a lack of tactical level route reconnaissance, much less strategic terrain recon. Hmm. 🤔

Probably a bunch of pork barrel spending and kickbacks, And lots not pretend Ukraine doesn't also have its own corrupt oligarchs who probably steal foreign aid.

Yeah, I'm sure there were some people in Saddam's command bunker in 1991 telling each other all about the corruption and pork-barreling present in the US military-industrial complex about ten minutes before a bunker buster introduced itself to the group.

I'm just sayin. Results are results.
 
Yeah, I'm sure there were some people in Saddam's command bunker in 1991 telling each other all about the corruption and pork-barreling present in the US military-industrial complex about ten minutes before a bunker buster introduced itself to the group.

I'm just sayin. Results are results.

How is that relevant to average Americans not wanting to waste anymore money on Ukraine?
 
How is that relevant to average Americans not wanting to waste anymore money on Ukraine?

"Waste." lol. lmao.

HOKAY lemme break it down for ya fam. Whole US Gubbamint's been dealing with the following facts:
  • We're gonna throw down with China sooner or later.
  • Russia's gonna take their chance to have a go at the Baltics when they do.
  • We don't have that sweet sweet Cold War money to fund a two-theater military anymore.
  • omg wat do
It's bad enough that some analysts I deeply respect - i.e. of the "NUKE NORTH KOREA INDO-PACIFIC WAR NOW" variety - strongly believed that we should do anything and everything to split Russia away from China, because it was the only possible way the US could fight China and win. Yes, even if we had to simp a bit and tolerate muhwarcriemz.

When this whole thing first kicked off, an awful lot of analysts just wept tears of blood as they said there goes the indo-pacific pivot; convinced that this bruhaha would spoil a decades-long effort to make the Cold War dinosaurs who still control most of the American/NATO ~foreign policy establishment~ that Russia is a has-been second rate power and that China is the actual pacing threat that needs to be focused on, and that we'd return to paranoiac focus on Europe and neglect funding and capabilities for the Pacific to our great regret in 5-10 years time.

And then the Russians clownshoe'd and faceplanted and started losing their entire conventional warmaking capability at an insane rate.

The weapons we're pouring into Ukraine are literally already paid for. A great many of them are the oldest production blocs in the inventory - from the Javelins we sent to the Brimstones the UK sent. This is all in the OSINT; people looked up the goddamn serial numbers. A lot of those weapons were literally a few years away from their expiration date. And yet, instead of being ditched entirely, all that money wasted, they are now doing exactly what they were designed and built to do - destroy Russian equipment. The Brimstone the UK just sent and has been seen in action already is a great example. It's about the size and weight of a Hellfire missile but it is oh so much more deadly. This fucking thing is capable of independent area search, target identification and engagement - and it even comes with a built-in algorithm to ensure that mass salvo launches stagger their attacks a bit to ensure multiple missiles don't go for the same tank. The weapon is the result of a late 1980s development project and is basically designed so that a Tornado screaming in on the deck can blast off a whole salvo of these things and they will zoom on in and delete a Russian battle tank column on their own.

We have a massive arsenal of Cold War weaponry nearing its expiry date, that was designed to destroy the equipment Russia is currently cramming into Ukraine. And now, unexpectedly, incredibly, it is providing the return on investment we didn't think we'd get, by completely eliminating the only flanking threat we have that could complicate our ability to resist the Red Dragon.

"Wasting money?" Concern troll somewhere else, bitch.

as well as the Russians blowing up incoming supplies in transit

Pics or it didn't happen lmao
 

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