Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[ATP]

Where do you think that the front lines are going to be at the end of this war? Russian nationalist blogger Anatoly Karlin still believes that Russia can conquer all of Ukraine or at least all of Novorossiya, though he believes that this might require a full Russian mobilization and that the war might extend into 2023.

He could be right,Moscov have enough reservists to send them into meatgrinder.But - they need competent generals,too,and so far have none of that.
But - they certainly could take Donbass,Odessa,maybe even Kiev if they keep sending their soldiers there.

 

[Agent23]

Does it strike you that some of the Russian logic in regards to Ukraine has a rather Fascistic and even Nazi bent to it? For instance:

-Russia must invade other countries in order to become a Great Power/superpower. Hitler also had similar logic, arguing that Germany needed more people, land, and resources in order to be able to effectively compete with the US, British Empire, and French Empire.
-"Fake and gay" countries don't deserve to exist. The Russians feel this way about Ukraine, but the Nazis felt this way about Czechoslovakia and later Yugoslavia. The Nazis also, of course, believed that the Soviet Union had lost its right to exist within its existing borders after it purged, murdered, and exiled its existing Germanic elite and instead replaced them with a new Jewish elite and went to Hell afterwards.
-Just like Hitler blamed a giant Jewish conspiracy for all of Germany's problems and for trying to bring Germany down and to destroy Germany, Russia blames a giant Western conspiracy for all of Russia's problems and for trying to bring Russia down and to destroy Russia.
-Russian nationalists believe that Russia will lose its own right to exist if it will fail to conquer Ukraine ("fail to put Ukraine out of its misery"), just like Hitler believed that Germany will lose its own right to exist if it will fail to win World War II.

Anyway, which additional similarities do you see here?

This situation is closer to that of Germany and Austria if you want an analogy, or to Texas and the USA.
They also have what a lot of people see as legitimate security interests in the area, and the neo-nazi groups that took it over were supported by their enemy that has been putting nukes on their doorstep while denying what are ethic Russians their language rights.

 

[ATP]

This situation is closer to that of Germany and Austria if you want an analogy, or to Texas and the USA.
They also have what a lot of people see as legitimate security interests in the area, and the neo-nazi groups that took it over were supported by their enemy that has been putting nukes on their doorstep while denying what are ethic Russians their language rights.

Not at all.germans could be considered as one nations,when ukrainians and russians never was.
Or,to be precise,ukrainians are remnants of old russi which lived in Polish state,when Moscov is what mongols did to surviving russians there.
Becouse rulers of Kiev Russia never considered theit subject as personal property,which in Moscov was norm.

 

[Bacle]

Not at all.germans could be considered as one nations,when ukrainians and russians never was.
Or,to be precise,ukrainians are remnants of old russi which lived in Polish state,when Moscov is what mongols did to surviving russians there.
Becouse rulers of Kiev Russia never considered theit subject as personal property,which in Moscov was norm.

So would it be fair to say Ukraine is True Rus, while Russia is Mongol Rus?

 

[Agent23]

Not at all.germans could be considered as one nations,when ukrainians and russians never was.
Or,to be precise,ukrainians are remnants of old russi which lived in Polish state,when Moscov is what mongols did to surviving russians there.
Becouse rulers of Kiev Russia never considered theit subject as personal property,which in Moscov was norm.

Um, not really, the closest "one country" they ever were was the Holy Roman Empire, which was neither one of the 3, maybe the Carolingian Empire.
The Confederacy of German states doesn't count, either, and Bismarck expressly wanted to keep Austrians and other Catholics out of the 2nd Reich.

 

[ATP]

So would it be fair to say Ukraine is True Rus, while Russia is Mongol Rus?

Rather that Ukraine is what remained of old Russ,while Russia is neosoviet state.Becouse,let be frank,all tsarist tradition was destroyed and replaced by soviet new one.
And,they do not really consider everybody property of tsar,like in Moscov,but rather property of various KGB mafias ruling there.

 

[planefag]

Must be working. Else why is Ukraine trying to move territorial militias into donbass?

Why wouldn't they commit as much manpower as possible? Mortars are short-ranged enough that they're definitely on the front line but they're also manpower intensive in handling ammo, etc.

For instance, check this. Notice anything odd?



They're only using a single gun - not operating a full battery. This is ideal for shoot-and-scoot harassing fire... the kind Ukrainians have a lot of experience with given eight years of low(er) intensity conflict in Donbas. Observe:



Also the Donbas frontline was heavily fortified over those years. Observe this recent video of Russian shelling of such a position:



That 152mm shellfire isn't going to do jack diddly shit to a position like that. The dugout bunkers there will be deep enough, with thick enough roofs, that they can probably repel a direct hit by 203mm, even. It'd take siege weaponry; either a TOS-1 or a 240mm self-propelled mortar to do damage here and those, especially the latter, are currently occupied in Mariupol (and they don't have enough of them to begin with.) That's a perfect position to put a TDF soldier - esp. now that they have a few months of combat experience - since his only job is to crawl out of the trench when the loud noise stops and man his machine gun.

Ukraine is using their conscripts the way conscripts are intended to be used - on the defense in a fight for the nation's survival. Morale is handled by the fact they're fighting for their own homes and families and the tasks given to them are on-par with what they're capable of. You don't ask them to be the ones coordinating multiple battery time-on-target barrages; you send them out with a single gun to perform harassing fire missions with instructions to limber up and leg it after they expend their ready rounds. You don't use them on mobile counterattacks, you use them to man well prepared defenses and provide a base-of-fire.

Russia's the one that has to take ground, and they're rapidly running out of trained contract soldiers with which to do it. Ukraine doesn't have to stand on its head to get conscripts - they already have a trained militia, and as defenders with prepared positions, they have plenty of jobs that manpower is perfectly capable of doing.

Question is - once Russia has finished blowing its wad, its soldiers are exhausted and its initial equipment superiority badly degraded while Ukraine's inferiority is rapidly being made up for with brand new, state of the art western weapons - what do you think happens then?

 

[Zachowon]

Conscripts are useful in defense useless in offense

 

[Vaermina]

Why so?

From the way this is going towards WW1-style trench warfare, I see a stalemate as more likely.

Because Russia's being pushed back.

The Russians even if they fully mobilize dont have enough massed public support for the war to continue it to the point of conquering all of Ukraine especially with their irreplaceable equipment loss. More likely they will try to take everything east of the Dneiper before forcing the trump Ukraine into a permanent state of neutrality with conditions that make it look like their 'anti-nazi.' operation was a success.

Russia has Nukes and Ukraine is winning and won't accept anything short of a return of it's territory.

Meaning either this ends with Russia nuking Ukraine, or this ends after the long slog of Ukraine taking back it's territory.

 

[paulobrito]

Ukraine is winning? Please send me some of the whatever you are drinking / smoking/ injecting... you clearly can't handle it, and is good stuff.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Russia hasn't made any progress in Denazification, Demilitarizing or Enforcing the Neutrality of Ukraine AFAIK recently.

The only other metrics to use are military ones (victories/losses or territory captured etc) l as as we've established in the Donb Ass thread those are meaningless in determinimg even military effectiveness, much less as a metric for victory .

 

[Zachowon]

By the definition of a victory that has been presented in Don Bass thread.
The Russians are no where near winning.

 

[paulobrito]

Sorry - some have the idiotic assumption that one side wins, forgetting the more usual result - everybody loses. That, is indeed, the one we see right now.

 

[Vaermina]

Ukraine is winning? Please send me some of the whatever you are drinking / smoking/ injecting... you clearly can't handle it, and is good stuff.

You might want to take a look at the battlemaps... And the equipment losses... And the officer losses... And the troop losses...

 

[Husky_Khan]

If anything going by non-military Metrics Russia is losing. Ever since the start of this Denazification effort Nazism has been on the rise in the West. Russia's own Foreign Ministry just a few days ago pointed out how the West is infested with Nazis and even countries like Israel who used to be perceived as Anti-Nazi are openly supporting a regime Russia has described as Neo-Nazi.

And now you have Sweden and Finland pushed into dropping neutrality to support the Neo-Nazis. As well as countries like South Korea, Singapore, Brazil and South Korea supporting Neo-Nazism as well.

If anything Nazism is stronger now then it was in 1945. Most of the West is openly backing a Neo-Nazi Regime run by a Hitler analogue who happens to have "Jewish blood." We have the only Jewish State and overwhelmingly Slavic countries openly advocating a political movement dedicated to their own genocide and the past seventy days has only grown irrevocably worse.

 

[paulobrito]

You might want to take a look at the battlemaps... And the equipment losses... And the officer losses... And the troop losses...

And you need to look at what Ukraine lost - nobody wins in this war - at last nobody directly involved.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

And you need to look at what Ukraine lost - nobody wins in this war - at last nobody directly involved.

If Ukraine survives with its territory intact that is a victory, Winning a war without a single casualty is laughably unrealistic.

 

[paulobrito]

If Ukraine survives with its territory intact that is a victory, Winning a war without a single casualty is laughably unrealistic.

Right, but winning a war and getting your country destroyed is not so much a victory, is a measure of survival, not a win.
Now, for some companies in some countries, that is a win - you know who.

 

[TheRejectionist]

Does it strike you that some of the Russian logic in regards to Ukraine has a rather Fascistic and even Nazi bent to it? For instance:

-Russia must invade other countries in order to become a Great Power/superpower. Hitler also had similar logic, arguing that Germany needed more people, land, and resources in order to be able to effectively compete with the US, British Empire, and French Empire.
-"Fake and gay" countries don't deserve to exist. The Russians feel this way about Ukraine, but the Nazis felt this way about Czechoslovakia and later Yugoslavia. The Nazis also, of course, believed that the Soviet Union had lost its right to exist within its existing borders after it purged, murdered, and exiled its existing Germanic elite and instead replaced them with a new Jewish elite and went to Hell afterwards.
-Just like Hitler blamed a giant Jewish conspiracy for all of Germany's problems and for trying to bring Germany down and to destroy Germany, Russia blames a giant Western conspiracy for all of Russia's problems and for trying to bring Russia down and to destroy Russia.
-Russian nationalists believe that Russia will lose its own right to exist if it will fail to conquer Ukraine ("fail to put Ukraine out of its misery"), just like Hitler believed that Germany will lose its own right to exist if it will fail to win World War II.

Anyway, which additional similarities do you see here?

To me it seems more Manifest Destiny than Germany if it was written by National Bolsheviks.

 

[WolfBear]

To me it seems more Manifest Destiny than Germany if it was written by National Bolsheviks.

Manifest Destiny involved expanding into sparsely populated territories. Russia's recent expansion attempts aren't it.