Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)
- Thread starter ParadiseLost
- Start date
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
Must be working. Else why is Ukraine trying to move territorial militias into donbass?
To support the front
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
The territorial militias are old men and such and are supposed to be used to defend thier local regions. If the Ukrainians are doing well, why would Ukraine be scraping the bottom of the barrel for manpower? If they can replace their trained cadre, why arent they? An army doing well doesnt need to mobilise the Volksturm.
They can also be used for supporting positions as well...
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
they arent being used to man checkpoints, or guard depots, they are being sent right into the very worst area in the fighting.
That isn't what I meant and how do you know? Because guess what? Support means more then that. It means logistics. Convoys.
Stuff like thay?
Does it strike you that some of the Russian logic in regards to Ukraine has a rather Fascistic and even Nazi bent to it? For instance:
-Russia must invade other countries in order to become a Great Power/superpower. Hitler also had similar logic, arguing that Germany needed more people, land, and resources in order to be able to effectively compete with the US, British Empire, and French Empire.
-"Fake and gay" countries don't deserve to exist. The Russians feel this way about Ukraine, but the Nazis felt this way about Czechoslovakia and later Yugoslavia. The Nazis also, of course, believed that the Soviet Union had lost its right to exist within its existing borders after it purged, murdered, and exiled its existing Germanic elite and instead replaced them with a new Jewish elite and went to Hell afterwards.
-Just like Hitler blamed a giant Jewish conspiracy for all of Germany's problems and for trying to bring Germany down and to destroy Germany, Russia blames a giant Western conspiracy for all of Russia's problems and for trying to bring Russia down and to destroy Russia.
-Russian nationalists believe that Russia will lose its own right to exist if it will fail to conquer Ukraine ("fail to put Ukraine out of its misery"), just like Hitler believed that Germany will lose its own right to exist if it will fail to win World War II.
Anyway, which additional similarities do you see here?
-Russia must invade other countries in order to become a Great Power/superpower. Hitler also had similar logic, arguing that Germany needed more people, land, and resources in order to be able to effectively compete with the US, British Empire, and French Empire.
-"Fake and gay" countries don't deserve to exist. The Russians feel this way about Ukraine, but the Nazis felt this way about Czechoslovakia and later Yugoslavia. The Nazis also, of course, believed that the Soviet Union had lost its right to exist within its existing borders after it purged, murdered, and exiled its existing Germanic elite and instead replaced them with a new Jewish elite and went to Hell afterwards.
-Just like Hitler blamed a giant Jewish conspiracy for all of Germany's problems and for trying to bring Germany down and to destroy Germany, Russia blames a giant Western conspiracy for all of Russia's problems and for trying to bring Russia down and to destroy Russia.
-Russian nationalists believe that Russia will lose its own right to exist if it will fail to conquer Ukraine ("fail to put Ukraine out of its misery"), just like Hitler believed that Germany will lose its own right to exist if it will fail to win World War II.
Anyway, which additional similarities do you see here?
Both Hitler and Putin have a cult of personality.
Doomsought
Well-known member
Not really, these are pretty standard talking points to drum up any invasion for conquest.
Where do you think that the front lines are going to be at the end of this war? Russian nationalist blogger Anatoly Karlin still believes that Russia can conquer all of Ukraine or at least all of Novorossiya, though he believes that this might require a full Russian mobilization and that the war might extend into 2023.
Either with no more Ukraine, or with Ukraine having retaken everything up to it's pre-2014 border.
Those are basically the only two options at this point.
Why so?
From the way this is going towards WW1-style trench warfare, I see a stalemate as more likely.
The Russians even if they fully mobilize dont have enough massed public support for the war to continue it to the point of conquering all of Ukraine especially with their irreplaceable equipment loss. More likely they will try to take everything east of the Dneiper before forcing the trump Ukraine into a permanent state of neutrality with conditions that make it look like their 'anti-nazi.' operation was a success.
The Russians will also want Odessa, no?
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
I think there is a third option where Russia keeps Crimea.
And the Donbass?
Megadeath
Well-known member
Yeah, a return to status quo ante bellum, or close enough seems the most likely option to me at this point. Which would be a huge loss of face for Russia internationally, and putin personally at the higher levels, but probably something Russia can spin as at least partial success for domestic consumption. If they hold onto the land route to Crimea, that's even better for them. It'd also likely lead to plenty of violent unrest and rebellion in the newer occupied areas, both natural and encouraged, at least until Russia just murders or relocates everyone. They'd also continue to sit on the shitty end of sanctions, and possibly face even more escalatory ones. I think that's only going to be avoided if they return Crimea. The break away republics, if they were to conduct monitored elections and achieve a clear mandate for succession, might be something the international community would let slide. Ukraine maybe not so much, but how much they can do about it might be limited, especially by whatever form future security guarantees might take.
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
Russia doesn't need land or resources. Russia attacked Ukraine because of its growing entanglement with NATO. Russia cannot allow that, any more than the USA would allow Canada to join a military alliance with China.