The Americas 🇧🇷 Federative Republic of Brazil Discussion Megathread

[Sobek]

Polls have closed around the country, first few votes coming in and being counted. The first batch of votes that are tallied are the ones from Brazilians outside of Brazil as for people traveling they vote at the embassies and get days to do it as a way to make it better for such travelers.

Resultados – TSE

resultados.tse.jus.br

 

[gral]

Polls have closed around the country, first few votes coming in and being counted. The first batch of votes that are tallied are the ones from Brazilians outside of Brazil as for people traveling they vote at the embassies and get days to do it as a way to make it better for such travelers.

Resultados – TSE

resultados.tse.jus.br

My brother still was a few minutes ago in the line to vote, polls have closed, but the ones in line still get to vote.

 

[Sobek]

Update: Around 67% of votes counted, Bolsonaro and Lula are pretty much tied, proving that the polls were wrong about Bolsonaro's popularity. It is pretty much guaranteed that it will go off to a second turn.

 

[gral]

88.55% of votes counted, Lula 46.93%, Bolsonaro 44.48%. My guess is Bolsonaro will end between 3 and 4% behind, and the election goes for the second round(well, the last one is guaranteed).

 

[Sobek]

Extremely amusing to see some of the people in my neighborhood go full retard and start screaming "Lula Presidente!" and anti-Bolsonaro shit when the criminal got ahead by 0,01%. They jumped the gun so hard it's honestly hilarious. I don't think none of these creatures even understands how the election results normally go in Presidential election.

 

[gral]

Extremely amusing to see some of the people in my neighborhood go full retard and start screaming "Lula Presidente!" and anti-Bolsonaro shit when the criminal got ahead by 0,01%. They jumped the gun so hard it's honestly hilarious. I don't think none of these creatures even understands how the election results normally go in Presidential election.

I think they're rather relieved the result wasn't worse for them.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Extremely amusing to see some of the people in my neighborhood go full retard and start screaming "Lula Presidente!" and anti-Bolsonaro shit when the criminal got ahead by 0,01%. They jumped the gun so hard it's honestly hilarious. I don't think none of these creatures even understands how the election results normally go in Presidential election.

Gonna start laughing when Bolsonaro wins reelection just to see the WOKE freaks crying

 

[gral]

OK, we're now on 'The Day After', so I'll try to gather some thoughts into something resembling a coherent analysis.

Final result for the Presidential Election: Lula 48.43%, Bolsonaro 43.20%. Lula ahead by 5.23%/around 6,185,000 votes.

My first impulse is to put Lula with bigger chances to take this one. Reason: Tebet(4.16%)'s electors should go for Lula, Ciro(3.04%)'s will at best split 3 ways between Lula(the smaller group - whomever was thinking of going for Lula already did), Bolsonaro and no one. All other candidates don't really matter(next candidate after Ciro got 0.51% of the votes). Null and blank votes add up to 4.41%. Bolsonaro would have to get electors among those who didn't go vote to win, and those are rather unreliable. This would point me to a Lula win by about 52-48.

However... after a real "broxada" on the part of Bolsonaro's supporters late tonight, today they seem bullish. May be cope? It may. However, I don't see any euphoria on part of Lula's supporters today. I work in a recently-privatized enterprise, which means it's full of leftist supporters. They aren't talking much about the election today. One of my colleagues flat out told me he expected more votes from Bolsonaro(and he hates Bolsonaro), but he still expects a Bolsonaro victory. I know that the plural of 'anecdotes' isn't 'data', but still...

What may change things: big one is abstention; those who didn't go vote. Around 33,000,000 people didn't go vote(around 21% of total electors); Bolsonaro would have to get about one third of those and part of those who voted for no one to revert the current result, assuming Tebet's voters go entirely or almost entirely to Lula. Some of Bolsonaro's supporters are challenging this assumption, though; they say the same argument that applies to Ciro applies to her(those who would have voted for Lula alredy did so).

This was essentially a long-winded way of saying I don't know enough to try to guess the winner. I'll wait one or two weeks before trying to do it.

Assuming a Lula victory, he will face challenges in Congress; Bolsonaro's party has won 99-100 seats in the House, best result for a single party since 1998. Bolsonaro also elected 15 senators(27 seats being disputed). If Bolsonaro's coalition doesn't get Limp Dick Syndrome and act like PSDB did when PT was in power - a big if, I admit - a Lula Administration should have trouble passing legislation through Congress, which will make things interesting.

 

[TheRejectionist]

There is talk of fraud like 2014 and when I went to vote with my mom there slightly more Bolsonaro voters than Lula's or similar.

Only 1 out 4 machines were working for the eletronic vote and funnily enough you couldn't photograph/film the voting process and Lula somehow won everywhere in expat community except Japan...

also apparently Lula's the favorite of the US in this occasion...It is reported an intervention by the US by direct or indirect means.

 

[gral]

There is talk of fraud like 2014 and when I went to vote with my mom there slightly more Bolsonaro voters than Lula's or similar.

Here(Leblon, Rio de Janeiro City) it was like that as well.

As for fraud, I'm fairly sure there was fraud. I'm also sure nothing will come of it.

 

[49ersfootball]

Howdy from the Alamo City Sietch family! I see that we've got a runoff, so the next 4 weeks will be quite intriguing with twists & turns.

The results from last night:
(Brazilian President)
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
57,255,683 (48.42%): Advanced to Runoff

Jair Bolsonaro (incumbent)
51,070,935 (43.19%): Advanced to Runoff

My Bold Prediction of the upcoming Runoff election set for October 22nd:
Bolsonaro wins reelection very narrowly & this will open the door for Conservatives to making their comeback across Latin America.

 

[Sobek]

It is really interesting how the leftists got a better result than expected but are still shocked with how "bad" Lula did. They really bought the "Lula 1st round guys" like mad.

There is also a fear by them that all the people who were likely to vote Lula already did so. They seem afraid all 3rd option voters are going to Bolsonaro or at least the vast majority of them. This seems unlikely to me. A lot will sure but it is not set in stone like that.

 

[gral]

There is also a fear by them that all the people who were likely to vote Lula already did so.

Some people in Bolsonaro's camp also have this fear.

 

[TheRejectionist]

 

[Sobek]

Both the 3rd and 4th place in the presidential first round have endorsed Bolsonaro, which is a bit surprising but not unexpected.

A lot of the cooler heads are also mentioning that even if Lula wins the election will be a absolute poisoned chalice for him due to the simple fact the vast VAST majority of the lower ranks of the government have been taken by the Bolsonaro aligned politicians.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Both the 3rd and 4th place in the presidential first round have endorsed Bolsonaro, which is a bit surprising but not unexpected.

A lot of the cooler heads are also mentioning that even if Lula wins the election will be a absolute poisoned chalice for him due to the simple fact the vast VAST majority of the lower ranks of the government have been taken by the Bolsonaro aligned politicians.

Praying for Bolsonaro to win reelection 🙏

 

[gral]

Both the 3rd and 4th place in the presidential first round have endorsed Bolsonaro, which is a bit surprising but not unexpected.

A lot of the cooler heads are also mentioning that even if Lula wins the election will be a absolute poisoned chalice for him due to the simple fact the vast VAST majority of the lower ranks of the government have been taken by the Bolsonaro aligned politicians.

Is that official? I haven't seen confirmation of those endorsements yet(although I do now believe many, if not most, of their voters will go for Bolsonaro).

As for the 'poisoned chalice', I wouldn't take that for granted. You know how loyal the averge politician is...

 

[49ersfootball]

Some people in Bolsonaro's camp also have this fear.

You're doubling-down on Bolsonaro getting reelected ? 🤔

 

[gral]

You're doubling-down on Bolsonaro getting reelected ? 🤔

I don't feel confident to predict the result right now. Ask me again next week.

 

[Tyzuris]

Both the 3rd and 4th place in the presidential first round have endorsed Bolsonaro, which is a bit surprising but not unexpected.

A lot of the cooler heads are also mentioning that even if Lula wins the election will be a absolute poisoned chalice for him due to the simple fact the vast VAST majority of the lower ranks of the government have been taken by the Bolsonaro aligned politicians.

Yeah this. And also with Bolsonaro falling short of Lula by a mere five percent and with the 3rd and 4th place endorsing Bolsonaro, I can see Bolsonaro pulling ahead. And especially if there were Bolsonaro supporters who instead of voting decided to sit at home, then these results from the first round will probably push them to the polls.