The map shown is... well, delusional. It just shows Russian subdivisions and says "they'll all be countries". Very unlikely to just play out that way. Most of the 'ethnic regions' shown are >95% Russian, to begin with. They're not really viable as break-away ethnostates.
Roughly speaking, the area indicated by 1-15 or so can be secured by the West, unless retarded defeatism prevails [*]. And 17, 19-22 and 24-32 are safely in China's back yard; the South of 23 as well. So 16, 18 and the Northern part of 23 are likely to be the contested ground.
There's is for damn sure not going to be a 'Caucasian Confederation' (it's about as viable as "Let's re-unite Yugoslavia!"), but that area
is likeliest to see true break-aways. Little shitty islamic warlord states. Besides that, count on (Western) Russia losing nothing to the West except Kalingrad and
maybe a small Finnish border correction. (There are too few Fins left in Karelia to make annexation of the region viable. The result would be "Too many Russians within our borders!")
A Kalmyk state could be an option if they want it, but that hardly makes a difference, either.
As far as the East is concerned: China will just re-organise that into a "Siberian Federation" or something, which will basically be like Mongolia writ large: a puppet state meant for economic exploitation and gradual demographic assimilation.
Basically, borders roughly like the crude indication I've drawn in blue lines, below. No scores and scores of tiny states. Neither the West nor China has any desire for that kind of chaos. Way too difficult to control.
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[*] If retarded defeatism does prevail, it will not save Russia. The Russian national suicide is already a fact. The only outcome of such a policy will be that China gets
everything. Probably including Belarus. Meaning the Chinese sphere of influence will then end up bordering on Poland. That's a terrible notion. Conceivably the worst geo-strategic mistake of this century.