Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

You previously said you don't speak Ukrainian, so how would you know that?
But i do speak a similar slavic language as a native, and i consulted that on the internet. Only dumb journos who repost anything without checking and pro-Russian sources with odd cuts of the video claim that he is giving the amount of losses, which does sound odd when just a moment before he recommends that the president should reveal this classified figure. So either he doesn't talk about losses and coincidentally enough the 500k refers to future mobilization plans which happen to be that number, or he doesn't know the real figure and makes a wild guess, or is committing a crime in form of knowingly revealing classified information on TV without any authorization, which in wartime would be considered a very serious crime.
 
But i do speak a similar slavic language as a native, and i consulted that on the internet. Only dumb journos who repost anything without checking

Okay, so you used an internet translator to cast doubt on the video but you've repeatedly said you don't trust those. Can you provide me the name of this translator so I can double check you?

Equally, can you provide evidence ABC reported the claim without fact checking?

and pro-Russian sources with odd cuts of the video claim

I linked you to the full video with no cuts, however. Did you forget?

that he is giving the amount of losses, which does sound odd when just a moment before he recommends that the president should reveal this classified figure. So either he doesn't talk about losses and coincidentally enough the 500k refers to future mobilization plans which happen to be that number, or he doesn't know the real figure and makes a wild guess, or is committing a crime in form of knowingly revealing classified information on TV without any authorization.

Or he's asking the President to be honest with the figure he knows, that's now been confirmed by third party sources? Incidentally, we do have other Ukrainian officials giving similar figures in public. You never did answer me when I asked if that would be a sufficient burden of proof level for you.
 
Okay, so you used an internet translator to cast doubt on the video. Can you provide me the name of this translator so I can double check you? Equally, can you provide evidence ABC reported the claim without fact checking?
No, i will not dox my acquaintances to you. As i said, machine translation is no good for deciding this.
I linked you to the full video with no cuts, however. Did you forget?
Which makes the odd cuts in pro-Russian sources even more a reason for suspicion.
Or he's asking the President to be honest with the figure he knows, that's now been confirmed by third party sources? Incidentally, we do have other Ukrainian officials giving similar figures. You never did answer me when I asked if that would be a sufficient burden of proof level for you.
The official figure is classified.


Kyiv treats its losses as a state secret and officials say disclosing the figure could harm its war effort.
So, that raises the red flag. Whatever figure the officials supposedly give, it's either bad translation, wild estimates that are as good as anyone else's, or the official in question would be in prison for publishing it.

Which would be perfectly in line with this official asking the president to reveal the numbers.
If he had numbers and was publishing them, that would not make much sense to ask, and if they are classified and he released them right then, that would make him guilty of publishing state secrets, and the same would apply to any other officials who supposedly did that.
 
No, i will not dox my acquaintances to you. As i said, machine translation is no good for deciding this.

I didn't ask you to doxx them, I asked you to define the source because you said you consulted the internet. I too have Ukrainian friends and they said it's an exact translation.

Which makes the odd cuts in pro-Russian sources even more a reason for suspicion.

Well given the full length cut I gave said exactly the same thing, I'm not sure why that is in your opinion.

The official figure is classified.

So, that raises the red flag. Whatever figure the officials supposedly give, it's either bad translation, wild estimates that are as good as anyone else's, or the official in question would be in prison for publishing it.

It's directly from their official Facebook account and they're one of the officials in charge of the Rada committee overseeing the war effort, so directly in place to know what the real figure is. Now, please answer me whether you would accept it or not.

Which would be perfectly in line with this official asking the president to reveal the numbers.
If he had numbers and was publishing them, that would not make much sense to ask, and if they are classified and he released them right then, that would make him a criminal.
I don't see why. If he gave the official number and they arrested him for it, it would confirm the number is real; otherwise why would they be arresting him? Until Zelensky publicly confirms the real number (as asked), he can always claim their losses are lower than they actually are, just as you are doing, since Lutsenko isn't a current official.
 
I didn't ask you to doxx them, I asked you to define the source because you said you consulted the internet. I too have Ukrainian friends and they said it's an exact translation.



Well given the full length cut I gave said exactly the same thing, I'm not sure why that is in your opinion.
Because at first you provided for reasons we both know and you will never admit a twitter source with such cut, an extremely pro-Russian one.
It's directly from their official Facebook account and they're one of the officials in charge of the Rada committee overseeing the war effort, so directly in place to know what the real figure is. Now, please answer me whether you would accept it or not.
Provide it and then i will judge it for myself if i accept it. I will not play your trick game by accepting your source in blanco on the basis of your loose and possibly wrong description of it.
Then again, is this official on his way to prison for leaking state secrets on Facebook?
I don't see why. If he gave the official number and they arrested him for it, it would confirm the number is real;
So you are suggesting that in the end it's not confirmed at all yet and only if he was arrested for it, then it would be confirmed? Great, i can roll with that.
otherwise why would they be arresting him? Until Zelensky publicly confirms the real number (as asked), he can always claim their losses are lower than they actually are, just as you are doing, since Lutsenko isn't a current official.
But that would set the precedent of allowing former officials to leak state secrets on TV with no consequences at all, so it's quite unlikely.
As opposed to all sorts of people spitting out random numbers, which unless it goes hard into enemy propaganda territory in wartime is allowed.
 
Because at first you provided for reasons we both know and you will never admit a twitter source with such cut, an extremely pro-Russian one

I provided a shorter clip to show the relevant part. If I was trying to hide something, why would I then provide you with the full length version from the official Ukrainian channel?

Provide it and then i will judge it for myself if i accept it. I will not play your trick game by accepting your source in blanco on the basis of your loose and possibly wrong description of it.

The issue is that in the course of this conversation you have engaged in consistently moving the goalposts. You initially disputed the source, and then when I showed the aforementioned full length video was from a Ukrainian news channel, you then switched to attacking Lutsenko himself before then, after I showed his credentials, to disputing whether the provided translations of his interview were correct.

It wasn't just me that noticed this, others in here commented on it too when you did it.

But that would set the precedent of allowing former officials to leak state secrets on TV with no consequences at all, so it's quite unlikely.

How would anybody know if said state secrets are real? They can just dismiss Lutsenko but arresting him for it would confirm he really had the data and the leaks were true.

A reminder too that earlier in this conversation you insinuated Lutsenko was a Russian asset that somehow had never been picked up by Ukrainian authorities in over a decade, yet they would immediately arrest someone for leaking official data?
 
I provided a shorter clip to show the relevant part. If I was trying to hide something, why would I then provide you with the full length version from the official Ukrainian channel?
Because you neither notice nor care about the context cut or intent behind it.
The issue is that in the course of this conversation you have engaged in consistently moving the goalposts. You initially disputed the source, and then when I showed the aforementioned full length video was from a Ukrainian news channel, you then switched to attacking Lutsenko himself before then, after I showed his credentials, to disputing whether the provided translations of his interview were correct.
Your imaginary goalposts are of zero value to me.
This is an investigation of the reality at hand, not some pseudo-debate roleplay where you are both a contestant and arbiter, sorry, not interested, go play this on certain other forums if you like where such rules exist, but they don't exist here.
It wasn't just me that noticed this, others in here commented on it too when you did it.
Yeah, others who agree with your sentiments, old story, do you have a new one?
How would anybody know if the state secrets are real?
What happened to Edward Snowden and Bradley Manning after revealing state secrets?
Yeah, we would know.
A reminder too that earlier in this conversation you insinuated Lutsenko was a Russian asset that somehow had never been picked up by Ukrainian authorities in over a decade, yet they would immediately arrest someone for leaking official data?
You think Ukrainian authorities should be expected to not only follow my guesswork, but arrest people on its basis? They did investigate him, so, no one knows what came up.
 
Because you neither notice nor care about the context cut or intent behind it.

Then please give the relevant time stamps from the full length video that show meaningful context was cut.

Your imaginary goalposts are of zero value to me.
This is an investigation of the reality at hand, not some pseudo-debate roleplay where you are both a contestant and arbiter, sorry, not interested, go play this on certain other forums if you like where such rules exist, but they don't exist here.

Indeed, that’s why objective standards are important and why I’m pointing out your failure to maintain them are a disservice to your argument.

Yeah, others who agree with your sentiments, old story, do you have a new one?

Let’s see your evidence for that claim.

What happened to Edward Snowden and Bradley Manning after revealing state secrets?
Yeah, we would know.

Which is exactly my point? By arresting them, it confirmed their information was true. By not arresting Lutsenko or whoever, you leave ambiguity as to whether what he says is true or not.

You think Ukrainian authorities should be expected to not only follow my guesswork, but arrest people on its basis? They did investigate him, so, no one knows what came up.

No, I think that if there is sufficient evidence that you, as an internet anon, feel confident enough to accuse him of being a Russian asset than state level sources like the SBU would have access to that same amount of info.

Instead, Lutsenko has never been investigated for espionage and you made that up entirely. Please do not make up easily dismissed lies.
 
The official used a complex and rare style of forming sentences that has no equivalent in English, and some people on internet translate it differently from machine translation services, which generally struggle with such things.

By the way, you have yet to state what your friends told you beyond that he used a “complex and rare style”. I find that an odd omission on your part, since you’ve not said they’ve disputed what it’s claimed he said is false.
 
By the way, you have yet to state what your friends told you beyond that he used a “complex and rare style”. I find that an odd omission on your part, since you’ve not said they’ve disputed what it’s claimed he said is false.
They confirmed the version i've found on the internet earlier and linked you.
Then please give the relevant time stamps from the full length video that show meaningful context was cut.
Let's say 2 minutes before and after the parts in short Russia simp videos, and any cuts in between.
Indeed, that’s why objective standards are important and why I’m pointing out your failure to maintain them are a disservice to your argument.
Your attempt to act as non-neutral arbiter of our "debate" is noted and giving me a chuckle.
The only thing you are fit to point out is your role as self-appointed arbiter of the pseudo-debate trying to establish rules, and judge the debaters, including himself, according to own whim.
Can you take this pathetic debate parody show to someone who cares to watch it?
Let’s see your evidence for that claim.
I haven't seen any people with sympathies opposite to yours on Ukraine war doing so.
Which is exactly my point? By arresting them, it confirmed their information was true. By not arresting Lutsenko or whoever, you leave ambiguity as to whether what he says is true or not.

No, I think that if there is sufficient evidence that you, as an internet anon, feel confident enough to accuse him of being a Russian asset than state level sources like the SBU would have access to that same amount of info.
So you admit that even if the wrong translation is right, it's not conclusive evidence of anything... because SBU schemes to not confirm it despite this reveal being a crime of laeking state secrets. Ok, whatever. Either way, we are back to this being yet another wild guess until proven otherwise by an arrest.
But the translation is probably wrong, hence he can't be arrested because he didn't state any real or fake Ukrainian casualties figure, he just asked the president to release it, on grounds that it would help with the considered very public mobilization drive of extra 500k soldiers, which could be spread into 30k per month.
Instead, Lutsenko has never been investigated for espionage and you made that up entirely. Please do not make up easily dismissed lies.
How do you know that? Should i notify the SBU of some internet Russia simp parsing through their classified archives? Did some "official" on facebook or twitter tell you that all intelligence investigations regarding espionage have to be public even in wartime? He got a major favor from Russian puppet president, that's suspicious enough.
 
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They confirmed the version i've found on the internet earlier and linked you.

Which was?

Let's say 2 minutes before and after the parts in short Russia simp videos, and any cuts in between.

No, let’s get exact time stamps. You’ve made the claim, let’s see the evidence.

Your attempt to act as non-neutral arbiter of our "debate" is noted and giving me a chuckle.
The only thing you are fit to point out is your role as self-appointed arbiter of the pseudo-debate trying to establish rules, and judge the debaters, including himself, according to own whim.

Hence why I’ve maintained a consistent line and always provide evidence.

I haven't seen any people with sympathies opposite to yours on Ukraine war doing so.

Okay, then prove it by quoting Poe, for example, where he states he shares my views. Should be easy enough for you.

So you admit that even if the wrong translation is right, it's not conclusive evidence of anything... because SBU schemes to not confirm it despite this reveal being a crime of laeking state secrets. Ok, whatever.

No, rather I’m pointing out the obvious hole in your argument. I’m actually assuming Zelensky is more clever than you’re giving him credit for.

Either way, we are back to this being yet another wild guess until proven otherwise by an arrest.

Or, we can go with the fact it’s true based on other sources, like the originally cited polling data I gave you, amputee data and other officials confirming it as in the same ball park. There is a thing called preponderance of evidence for a reason.

But the translation is probably wrong, hence he can't be arrested because he didn't state any real or fake Ukrainian casualties figure.

The translation is correct, however, and is backed up now by other officials confirming it.

How do you know that? Should i notify the SBU of some internet Russia simp parsing through their classified archives? He got a major favor from Russian puppet president, that's suspicious enough.

Okay, then cite the investigation you claimed he was placed under for being a Russian asset. It’s notable you side steeped that for obvious reasons.

As I’ve now pointed out repeatedly, how do you know this but the SBU has missed it for over a decade? If you have evidence beyond the insinuation of guilt, let’s see it.
 
Which was?
No, let’s get exact time stamps. You’ve made the claim, let’s see the evidence.
Yes, your operating system most likely has a calculator, calculate them yourself. I'm not your calculator. I'm not your tutor for calculator use either.
Hence why I’ve maintained a consistent line and always provide evidence.
Self promote harder, see if anyone cares.
Okay, then prove it by quoting Poe, for example, where he states he shares my views. Should be easy enough for you.
You are not paying me to quote mine people on order and i have better things to do.
Can you show any who disagree with you vehemently saying so?
No, rather I’m pointing out the obvious hole in your argument. I’m actually assuming Zelensky is more clever than you’re giving him credit for.



Or, we can go with the fact it’s true based on other sources, like the originally cited polling data I gave you, amputee data and other officials confirming it as in the same ball park. There is a thing called preponderance of evidence for a reason.
The other sources you speak of are worthless for purposes of determining it's true.
Your use of that pooling data analysis as something even resembling evidence of anything (other than your persistent and obsessive need to convince people that Ukraine has very high casualties which stems from your very obvious sympathies that make such attempts and manipulative arguments on your part untrustworthy to the very extreme) is a hilarious attempt at crude statistical wizardry, and your other attempts aren't much better.
A real judge would laugh your "preponderance" of "evidence" out of court.
The translation is correct, however, and is backed up now by other officials confirming it.
Quote them.
Okay, then cite the investigation you claimed he was placed under for being a Russian asset. It’s notable you side steeped that for obvious reasons.
If it exists, it's classified. Because of this, your statement that such investigation never happened is unprovable.
As I’ve now pointed out repeatedly, how do you know this but the SBU has missed it for over a decade? If you have evidence beyond the insinuation of guilt, let’s see it.
If it exists, it's locked in a classified archive, which neither of us has access to. As such, unfortunately we cannot access such evidence.
 
The real numbers will never be known until a decade after it all ends.
There might be some people in various governments who know but it is heavily classified.
And CI investigations are never public
 
I'm rather skeptical they're going to actually do it, but if they did, the time is ripe.

NATO doesn't have an active war economy going and has emptied it's stock to aid Ukraine; RUSI in 2022 said the UK only had enough ammo for a week and Germany only has enough for two days. The bloc as a whole has failed to meet the increased defense spending pledges made in 2022, with even Poland cancelling it's military expansion plans with their deal with South Korea also falling through. Russia has went full war economy and the 2006-2016 boomlet will start entering military age soon, which gives the Russians a manpower edge over the Europeans.

With the U.S. distracted in the Middle East and Pacific, too....
Poor child.

Germans were ALWAYS soviet allies.They do not plan to fight them,but made another partition of Poland.
Poland new minister is german agent,who during his previous rule destroyed polish army.Of course,that he is destroing our army again.

If soviets win,it would be only thanks to Germany and their polish agents,not soviet power.Becouse their army is still shit which could attack only on mountains of their dead.
 
The German military's planning for this eventuality has leaked and is rather stunning, as it reveals they expect Ukraine to collapse this year:
Ah yes, just like that time the US invaded Canada in the late 1930s.
This follows ISW some weeks ago saying the possibility of Russian victory was high, and the resulting negative implications of that for NATO:
What exactly are you considering a "high possibility"? Given that you're basing this on "IF the US pulls all aid, it's NOT IMPOSSIBLE for Russia to conquer Ukraine".
with even Poland cancelling it's military expansion plans with their deal with South Korea also falling through.
Uh, doesn't that source you cite explicitly say Poland claims that the loan falling through won't stop it from completing the arms deal? You have the right to be skeptical about that, but it's not right to say Poland is canceling its military expansion plans based on that. If I missed something in there I'm happy to be corrected.
 
A good thing I don't use GPS ...
I wonder why there are green (unnafected?) hexes around ... Ciechanów and Sierpc?
 
Remember this woman? One of the rarest things in Russia. An honest politician. She focused her career on accountability, anti-corruption, transparent budgets and recently criticizing Putin's war. I'm surprised she wasn't killed. They taken to arresting her for bullshit charges. They arrested her right after the corrupt election board disqualified her from the presidential election. They charged her with drug use. . . Both tests were negative. I'm guessing they're eventually going to manufacture "evidence" and either gulag her or kill her "resisting arrest."
 

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