Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Yikes, the potential Polish and Romanian gains are just as overkill as Russian gains. Romanian annexation of Vinnytsia? Dude must be playing too much EUIV, and ditto with a Polish expansion up to Zhytomyr.

I wonder what kind of drugs he was on when he made that map lol! :D
 


 
Ukrainian frontline in Donbass is starting to collapse it seems, fighting inside Soledar and Bakhmut is being reported and there's indications the Ukrainians are starting to conduct a retreat. Ukrainians have also been panicking the past week because a Russian buildup is occurring in the South; various indications it could be directed at Nikolaev, Krivy Rog or Zaporozhye; have also seen some claims it could be against Kharkov, given ongoing Russian gains around Izyum. Regardless, big things are coming and it's increasingly clear how degraded the AFU has become as a result of the Russian advantage in material takes its tool.

My belief is the offensive will be against Nikolaev and Zaporozhye as the main effort, with a smaller effort against Kharkov. Taking Nikolaev is a major blow to the Ukrainians strategically, because of its industries and location on the Black Sea coast, which also sets it up to be the Russian stepping off point for the eventual liberation of Odessa. Zaporozhye, meanwhile, is politically necessary because of the planned referendums in the region as well as its strategic transportation networks making it useful in forcing the Ukrainians out of Donbass.

Russia is winning, decisively so, in short.
 
Not so plenty, those times weren't because Poland had dictators, quite the opposite if anything.
Besides, it's completely irrelevant to the topic at hand.
What difference does that make getting unwillingly partitioned and forced into exile or subservience by foreign rulers with near absolute power?
 
What difference does that make getting unwillingly partitioned and forced into exile or subservience by foreign rulers with near absolute power?
What's the point behind your question anyway and how is that relevant? Besides these things are not mutually exclusive. Sorry, my stockpile of damns to give about roundabout attempts at moralizing is completely empty.
 
What's the point behind your question anyway and how is that relevant? Besides these things are not mutually exclusive. Sorry, my stockpile of damns to give about roundabout attempts at moralizing is completely empty.
I'm explaining this. You said you don't give a damn so don't but I will state why I believe it so.
You got asked by TheRejectionist on an appeal to morality but as you're Polish you already had dictators ruling Poland in the past so the appeal to morality is moot.
 


The West might very well be helping the Ukrainians fight and killing Norks in the near future. Which would be rather sad for the Norks themselves since they're being indoctrinated by the totalitarian Kim regime. :(
 
I might do the Russian women. But that’s what “mail order brides” are for. 😛 Dunno about the rest…

Be careful with mail-order brides. They could leave you after a couple of years with a lot of alimony money and child support, after all!

Also:

BTW, you guys might enjoy this:


It's an online book comparing and contrasting the various regions of the US and the former Soviet Union. It's quite detailed, informative, and interesting! It was created/written back in the 1990s.
 
Trump has a blind spot due to being a buisnessmean, where he doesn't quite understand naked coercion. He thinks there is always a deal to be made, and that people won't negotiate in bad faith.

That might certainly be true.

@History Learner Do you believe that Trump would have been just as supportive of Ukraine as Biden was in 2021-2022 had Trump been reelected in light of this new information?

 
Exactly tracks with my estimates from a month ago. The fact the Ukrainian Defense Minister is also hoping their casualties are under 100,000 at this point should be telling.

Remember when I said this on June 29th, and also did an estimate on Ukrainian losses based on their admitted casualty rates? Well, AFU documents have leaked that state their casualties are around 190,000 KIA and WIA, not including MIA/PoWs; matches perfectly with my estimates and also explains why the Defense Minister refused to elaborate on the break down of figures of that 100,000 number when CNN asked him in mid June.

 
Oryx has proven you wrong history learner.
And note, you're not actually factoring in Russian troop losses in this.

So if all of Ukraine's 500,000+ troops are going to be gone in 6 more months of fighting, what will Russia's 190,000 troops be sitting at?.
Do you have a serious memory problem? You tried the bullshit claim misrepresenting the BBC info, and I pointed it out. You wonderfully fucked off. Then, hoping everyone forgot, you came back with more bullshit. When I addressed your lying, you tried to obfuscate, and asked for a quote. I gave it, and you fucked off again. It was great. Now, you're seriously going to repeat it a third time?

Just a tad over six weeks later, and time has once again vindicated everything I said: CIA director estimates 15,000 Russians killed in Ukraine war

ASPEN, Colorado, July 20 (Reuters) - The United States estimates that Russian casualties in Ukraine so far have reached around 15,000 killed and perhaps 45,000 wounded, CIA Director William Burns said on Wednesday, adding that Ukraine has also endured significant casualties.​
Nearly five months since President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Russia's neighbor, its forces are grinding through the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and occupy around a fifth of the country.​
"The latest estimates from the U.S. intelligence community would be something in the vicinity of 15,000 (Russian forces) killed and maybe three times that wounded. So a quite significant set of losses," Burns said.​
 

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