Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

History Learner said:

No, what eliminates the "context" of the 100k figure is that nowhere in it does it say civilian, it uses the word Ukrainian; you took that, because of your nature, as meaning what you wanted it too. The only part that does talk about civilian casualties is the OHCHR and the fact they don't comment on that is because there is no evidence for the 100,000 number being mostly civilians. Hell, CNN even did an interview with the guy and asked him directly; he refused to elaborate how many of 100,000 figure were civilian. Tell me, why he would do that if the majority are civilian? The propaganda value of that is obvious.

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I truly don't get the point of your bullshit. Like, you're obviously not unintelligent. (Even if you act pretty damn dumb!) I can't believe you'd look at the overall strategic picture, of forced Russian withdrawal and protracted gruelling fighting, and honestly believe that the reality is 100,000 Ukrainian military losses for only 4,000 Russian KIA.

But, what's the point of loophole debating? It's not some vs debate, where you get pointless internet points for "winning" by pointing to some in universe quote about lasers being useless against shields. You're not convincing anyone here, you're not making yourself look good. It's far more likely that in the future you'll be held up for ridicule like in the last post by @Husky_Khan than it is you'll be hailed as the one true and prescient prophet... But, even if you did convince of the BS,so what? No one here is having any impact on the real world situation. Twisting interpretation of reality to fit what you want it to be won't actually twist reality itself. When it's all said and done, you're eventually going to have to admit your absurdly exaggerated stances were clearly wrong.

I can only imagine you're so narrow minded and your world view is so filtered by your beliefs, that like a flat earther you'll bend over backwards to twist the evidence and logic to support those beliefs. That you can't even rationally examine any evidence that doesn't line up with what you've chosen to believe. If so, that's very, very sad. I'd pity you, if you hadn't chosen such a stupid stance to stand and fight for.

History Learner said:

No, what eliminates the "context" of the 100k figure is that nowhere in it does it say civilian, it uses the word Ukrainian; you took that, because of your nature, as meaning what you wanted it too.

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By strict , literal definition and common sense, "Ukrainian" means total military and civilian deaths of Ukrainians. There is no way you can wiggle your way out of that.

History Learner said:

The only part that does talk about civilian casualties is the OHCHR and the fact they don't comment on that is because there is no evidence for the 100,000 number being mostly civilians. Hell, CNN even did an interview with the guy and asked him directly; he refused to elaborate how many of 100,000 figure were civilian. Tell me, why he would do that if the majority are civilian? The propaganda value of that is obvious.

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a) Because all other sources that aren't crazy propagandists put Ukrainian military losses in 10-30k territory.
b) Because even a worst singular city battle contributes estimated 10-20k of dead civilians alone, up to 1/5 of that figure.
c) The very loose estimate of "tens of thousands, hope it's not over 100k" was referring to the absolute total, which includes areas held currently by Russia, which Ukraine cannot get any proper data from, while intel of more Bucha style behavior is probably arriving. Bucha alone contributed 1k dead, and that's a town that had a population of 36k before the war.

The mayor of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol said Monday that more than 10,000 civilians have died in the Russian siege of his city, and that the death toll could surpass 20,000, as weeks of attacks and privation leave the bodies of Mariupol's people “carpeted through the streets.”

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Why are you twisting yourself into a pretzel to try make the Russian military look good?

Bassoe said:

And it's working. This whole proxy war has been gigantic demonstration of just how much money the American military-industry complex has been embezzling by comparing the result to a rival military which simultaneously has much lower costs

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Yeah, sure, what *really* this proves is that USA is secretly supporting an X-COM program and Russia is really a front for the alien invasion.
Whatever conclusions you want to stretch out of that...
More seriously, US is providing very half-hearted support there, up to and including worrying about not providing too "provocative" weapons.
Basically USA is letting its proxy hold on on the scraps and convenient gift baskets of its military-industrial complex, rather than an actual exertion.
And we're not even talking about digging into the more capable Tomahawk missile stockpile for even more reasons, and ditto for particular favorite of the US, all sorts of air launched stuff.
How half-hearted exactly?

If Congress approves the latest request, the combined amount would be $53.7 billion.

To put that in perspective, it's about as much as the $54 billion spent to help passenger airlines keep workers on their payroll during the pandemic. It’s close to the size of Harvard University’s $53.2 billion endowment last year. And it's as large as Maryland's 2021 budget.

How significant is the new military aid portion?
The $20 billion Biden requested in military and other security assistance is dwarfed by the administration’s $773 billion proposed budget for the Pentagon.

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Or in other words, it's Pentagon's pocket change. One side is digging into its ancient reserves, while the other is still throwing its pocket change at it. Who do you think can keep it up better?

Bassoe said:

and doesn't get driven out of their colonies by barbarian hordes with rusty ex-soviet equipment.

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Considering your other commentary, why am i no surprised that you consider not doubling down on a bad bet a policy failure

History Learner said:

In which case you need to review the Pentagon's assessment, and it's not flattering all; their overall conclusion is we are borderline being unable to produce military goods at all. Do you know how many shells the U.S. Army acquired in FY2018? Roughly three days of current Russian usage levels.

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WW3 is going to be fought with sticks and stones, at least by us . . .

while our enemies are using WW2 weapons, which is a whole lot better than sticks and stones.

Cherico said:

America is currently under going the process of rebuilding our industrial capabilities, this process started under Trump and is going to take over a decade to finish. That said this news probally means subsidies for that rebuilding process.

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Brainless Biden is literally reversing everything.

Started from the Pipeline.

Very angry about that, I still am.

Marduk said:

Or in other words, it's Pentagon's pocket change. One side is digging into its ancient reserves, while the other is still throwing its pocket change at it. Who do you think can keep it up better?

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Dont bet on it.

AnimalNoodles said:

Dont bet on it.

The Return of Industrial Warfare

Can the West still provide the arsenal of democracy?

rusi.org

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Right conclusion wrongly extrapolated.
The Ukraine-Russia war has a specific set of circumstances where one side has pretty good ability to hit publicly known industrial and storage facilities of the other, while the other can only hit near border ones, and even then has limited means for it.
USA on the other hand has very good ability to protect its facilities from anything short of nuclear apocalypse level of long range firepower, while being able to dish out even more damage to enemy ones than Russia does.
Secondly, the slow, artillery based warfare is merely a fallback position for Russian military, after the failed attempt at its Desert Storm. The conclusion there is applicable to that, but not necessarily to other situations. If Russia succeeded in the former, we wouldn't be discussing mass artillery now.
If even Russians think that this Soviet favored style of warfare they are particularly specialized for is not preferable and would rather switch to a different one, is level of preparation of it a good yardstick to measure the military-industrial complex by?
It would be almost like measuring modern naval power by number of battleships one's shipyards can build.

Megadeath said:

But, what's the point of loophole debating?

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His behavior patterns suggest a compulsive aversion to admitting error, and I do mean compulsive. I'm not 100% sure it's that, it may instead be something subtly different, such as a compulsion to always assert he's correct, or to always see himself as the smarter/more well-informed person in a given interaction.

Whatever it is though, the pathological need for it has gotten to the point where he's crippled his own ability to see when his behavior is embarrassing, and instead projects his own emotional state onto others.

Husky_Khan said:

More Excellence from Russian Media in Regards to their Eternal Friendship and Affinity for Germany.





And a glimpse into everyday life in Ukraine...

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All is true - becouse friendship exist only in german minds,where they could copy 18th century agreement with german tsars over Poland corpse.

In reality,Moscov is ruled by Kbstan which want copy sralin plan - kill Poland together,and then backstab germans and kill them,too.

And,if USA collapse,it still could happen.

P.S Compared to Putin,Hiter was genius,so.....

Putin has his own personality cult lol :

ATP said:

All is true - becouse friendship exist only in german minds,where they could copy 18th century agreement with german tsars over Poland corpse.

In reality,Moscov is ruled by Kbstan which want copy sralin plan - kill Poland together,and then backstab germans and kill them,too.

And,if USA collapse,it still could happen.

P.S Compared to Putin,Hiter was genius,so.....

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IMHO, Germany should not either resist or oppose its own Manifest Destiny, which is expanding its sphere of influence eastwards, including into Ukraine, at Russia's expense. It did this during World War I, again but much more brutally and tragically during World War II, and again right now with the European Union granting candidacy status to both Ukraine and Moldova. Germany should realize that Russia isn't going to forgive it for World War II and also that it's a futile fool's errand for Germany to give up on its own Manifest Destiny. Germany should, of course, also realize that Ukrainians have also suffered a lot in World War II as well as a result of other Soviet aspects such as the Holodomor which only occurred because Germany sent Lenin to Russia in 1917 in the first place so that he could seize power there. Germany has always been about fighting Russia ever since 1914, when it was willing to risk sparking World War I because it felt that a war with Russia right now is better than a war with Russia later, when Russia would have already been too strong for it to successfully fight.

WolfBear said:

IMHO, Germany should not either resist or oppose its own Manifest Destiny, which is expanding its sphere of influence eastwards, including into Ukraine, at Russia's expense. It did this during World War I, again but much more brutally and tragically during World War II, and again right now with the European Union granting candidacy status to both Ukraine and Moldova. Germany should realize that Russia isn't going to forgive it for World War II and also that it's a futile fool's errand for Germany to give up on its own Manifest Destiny. Germany should, of course, also realize that Ukrainians have also suffered a lot in World War II as well as a result of other Soviet aspects such as the Holodomor which only occurred because Germany sent Lenin to Russia in 1917 in the first place so that he could seize power there. Germany has always been about fighting Russia ever since 1914, when it was willing to risk sparking World War I because it felt that a war with Russia right now is better than a war with Russia later, when Russia would have already been too strong for it to successfully fight.

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True.If they manage to partition Poland again,they would be next.Problem is - they still think about themselves as partners of Moscov,when from tsars fall they are nothing but tool to take entire Europe under Moscov yoke.

ATP said:

True.If they manage to partition Poland again,they would be next.Problem is - they still think about themselves as partners of Moscov,when from tsars fall they are nothing but tool to take entire Europe under Moscov yoke.

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But aren't the Polonkadonks (Poles) and the Germans friends right now?

History Learner said:

CNN also recently revealed the most recent U.S. assessment:

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov has said he believes tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24.​

​

Speaking to CNN's Matthew Chance in an exclusive interview, Reznikov refused to give exact figures of Ukrainian losses, but he said he "hopes" the figure is below 100,000.​

​

Reznikov said he disagreed with the most recent US assessment that 16,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the invasion, saying he believes their casualty numbers to be considerably higher.​

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It's quite interesting that Putin once again made the idea of being a shaheed (martyr) cool for Eastern Slavs. This, combined with his Chechen-loving, makes me wonder if Putin isn't actually a secret Muslim in Eastern Orthodox garb!

BTW, it's quite interesting that this conflict could have been avoided had Russian nationalists been willing to more aggressively chase pussy in the runup to the war. Had Russian nationalists actually been breeding much more like Israeli Jews are doing, then there would have been no "need" for Russia to conquer Ukraine for its human capital since Russia itself would have already had more than enough of its own human capital.

WolfBear said:

But aren't the Polonkadonks (Poles) and the Germans friends right now?

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No,germans try do destroy us for their Moscov allies.And our goverment capitulated,so they could succed.

ATP said:

No,germans try do destroy us for their Moscov allies.And our goverment capitulated,so they could succed.

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1939?

WolfBear said:

1939?

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Nope,becouse we arleady capitulated to german demands.When/if USA leave Europe,germans and Moscov would partitione us,and then germans discover that they are next and nobody would help them.
Well,Maybe Holy Mother save us again,but nobody else could.

WolfBear said:

IMHO, Germany should not either resist or oppose its own Manifest Destiny, which is expanding its sphere of influence eastwards, including into Ukraine, at Russia's expense. It did this during World War I, again but much more brutally and tragically during World War II, and again right now with the European Union granting candidacy status to both Ukraine and Moldova. Germany should realize that Russia isn't going to forgive it for World War II and also that it's a futile fool's errand for Germany to give up on its own Manifest Destiny. Germany should, of course, also realize that Ukrainians have also suffered a lot in World War II as well as a result of other Soviet aspects such as the Holodomor which only occurred because Germany sent Lenin to Russia in 1917 in the first place so that he could seize power there. Germany has always been about fighting Russia ever since 1914, when it was willing to risk sparking World War I because it felt that a war with Russia right now is better than a war with Russia later, when Russia would have already been too strong for it to successfully fight.

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Well the Germans have collectively apparently been deprived of their reason. All in all, we have a saying, if God wants to punish someone, he first takes away his reason.

I, as a Pole, do not complain if the Germans prefer not to take the opportunity and are stupid enough to give it to us. Then let them continue doing what they are doing. It will be fun to watch how they are the ones who will flop now because they bet on the wrong horse.

ATP said:

Well,Maybe Holy Mother save us again,but nobody else could.

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This reminded me that I found a nice statement today about how problems are solved in Poland.
Wonderful - Everyone gets along
Realistic -The Mother of God arrives and saves us.

Batrix2070 said:

Well the Germans have collectively apparently been deprived of their reason. All in all, we have a saying, if God wants to punish someone, he first takes away his reason.

I, as a Pole, do not complain if the Germans prefer not to take the opportunity and are stupid enough to give it to us. Then let them continue doing what they are doing. It will be fun to watch how they are the ones who will flop now because they bet on the wrong horse.

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You know, I always thought that German Mitteleuropa and Polish Prometheism/Intermarium were two sides of the same coin, except the former also involved Germany and the latter did not. When one looks at this issue from this perspective, historical German-Polish rivalry strikes me as being very irrational. "Muh Danzig! Muh Corridor!" simply isn't worth as much as stripping Ukraine from Russia, after all.

WolfBear said:

I always thought that German Mitteleuropa and Polish Prometheism/Intermarium were two sides of the same coin,

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That's rather bad thinking. German Mittleuropa is supposed to give Germany its own secure market and hinterland.
Polish Prometheism is supposed to smash Russia into splinters, while Innmaterium is supposed to give a safe zone that prevents Poland from being turned into an object of the superpowers' game and elevating us to that level.

It is impossible to reconcile because the two projects at their core contradict each other. Because only one of these countries will bring serious benefits to the other, making the latter dependent on the former.

WolfBear said:

German-Polish rivalry strikes me as being very irrational

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Honestly? This conflit is just the kind where you can tell who started it. Germany in the 10th century wanting to go east after conquering the Elbe Slavs.
Poland, on the other hand, did everything from the very beginning to avoid being subjugated by the Germans. This dragged on until the feudal breakup when both countries broke up and then no one dragged on. (Well, unless you consider Poland's attempt to carve out a path back to the sea through the Teutonic Order as a continuation of this rivalry).

In fact, if Germany had given up pushing eastward, Poland had no problem with them, but that they want Germany to subjugate Eastern and Central Europe is what we say NO to, of course. And we try to push them back, time and again breaking German fingers and hands. (This is quite ironic in relation to how everyone sees Polish-German relations. That is, that it's Poland that gets the thrashing, and not how it actually is, which is that the Germans come back time and time again with their tails tucked.)

Therefore, this conflict is one of the most rational in the world. Germany wants east, Poland doesn't, so it's doing everything to reject them back to the west.
As long as Poland wants to be Poland and Germany wants to go further east, this rivalry in various forms will continue for centuries.

Batrix2070 said:

That's rather bad thinking. German Mittleuropa is supposed to give Germany its own secure market and hinterland.
Polish Prometheism is supposed to smash Russia into splinters, while Innmaterium is supposed to give a safe zone that prevents Poland from being turned into an object of the superpowers' game and elevating us to that level.

It is impossible to reconcile because the two projects at their core contradict each other. Because only one of these countries will bring serious benefits to the other, making the latter dependent on the former.

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And having Germany and Poland jointly pursue these projects while being friends like they are right now can't work?

Also, very off-topic, but I have just discovered that there is an anime version of Vladimir Putin:



WolfBear's Rule: If it exists, there is anime of it, or at least will eventually be.