Turkish-backed attack on Armenia by Azerbaijan with formal declaration of War

The Original Sixth

Well-known member
Founder
He tried to invoke it in Syria, he was told it doesn't count.

Yeah, but he was fighting Kurds. Essentially a non-threat as far as the rest of NATO is concerned and one that Turkey could handle on its own. It would be like the US calling in Article 5 to fight the Cubans. That changes if Turkey and Russia go to the mat. I don't think that will happen, but if it does and NATO doesn't answer the call to Article 5, the alliance is basically over.

It's on life support now, but if we're not even going to show up to fight the Russians, which was the whole point of NATO, then we really don't have an alliance.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
I think it could get much worse.

What it really comes down to is how much Turkey is willing to support its cousins in Azerbaijan while risking their relations with Russia. Last time Russia and Turkey went head to head on policy, Turkey backed down. This may be different though. Although Armenia has lots of hills and mountains, making any sort of penetration into the region very difficult, it is essentially flanked on both sides. Nakhchivan would probably fall to Armenia on its own, but if Turkey is willing to go to the mat for this, the whole situation could morph very quickly.

Armenia can't possibly win a war against both Azerbaijan and Turkey, even if Turkey doesn't put in the bulk of its military power behind Azerbaijan. So Russia has to respond. Otherwise, you could very well not just see the contested region fall to Azerbaijan, but a corridor of territory falling to Azerbaijan that connects it to Turkey. Russia could probably protect the northern regions of Armenia with its forces in Georgia, but that would allow Turkey to fully extend its power into the Caspian Sea. Mind you, a sea that doesn't really go anywhere, but it would allow Turkey to possibly connect with other powers or even float a small navy.

The other issue is Iran. Because this is NOT something that Iran is going to want. If Iran decides to get involved, then that would cause Turkey to ally with Saudi Arabia, Israel, and other powers that are seeking to contain Iran. That in turn would probably force Iran and Russia to intensify their works in the other contested regions such as Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

Turkey has already shown that it's willing to go to the mat to prevent a Kurdish nation from forming on its south. Are they willing to go to the mat for the sake of re-connecting to Azerbaijan? The Middle East has been coming to a hard boil for decades now. This conflict is probably going to push it closer towards spilling over.

In regards to NATO, that's a stickier situation than I think people are guessing. While I agree that neither America or the European powers are going to want to come to Turkey's aid if it starts trading blows with Russia because they want to invade the Armenians, people need to realize that this will probably spell the end for NATO itself. Sure, you can argue that Turkey is in the wrong. You can argue that most of NATO doesn't even really like Turkey.

But staying out of this fight will have the same result if the USA had not gotten involved in Vietnam; it will prove that the NATO members are not committed to the alliance. They will only show up if it's in their best interest. And that means that Eastern Europe will be left to its own devices if and when the Russians come for them. Ukraine wasn't technically a member. Turkey is a member, even if it's one no one actually cares for.

Now personally for me, that's not an issue. I think NATO has outlived its utility in the modern era. The US should in my mind, focus on keeping its presence in the Atlantic and the Pacific through alliances to the British and the Japanese (and friends) respectfully. We have no interest in this fight, so we should stay out of it.
NATO wont help in the invasion of another country unless said other country literally brought on the attack, like doing a pearl harbor type thing....
THey wont disband because of this. They may try to kick TUrkey out at this point though since their leader I a worse warmonger then the other countries
 
D

Deleted member 88

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There isn't any mechanism for expelling a member from NATO.

(Which makes sense historically as doing so would never have been a consideration in the Cold War).
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Turks used them effectively in Syria and Libya, Armenian AA defenses are outdated, they took down some UAVs but also lost some Osa systems. It seems Russia is sending the additional AA systems through Iran.
So unfair but that's by design.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
@Duke Nukem No, I think everyone here is.

Here's another source on Turkey deploying Syrian mercenaries to support Azerbaijan:

Syrian mercenaries including an ISIL warlord no less.

ISTANBUL, Turkey—On Sunday afternoon, a video depicting a large convoy of Islamist Syrian rebel fighters yelling enthusiastically as they drove off to war circulated widely on Arabic social media. Fighters in the packed trucks, driving quickly past the group of children filming with their phones, could be heard yelling “Allahu Akbar!” and, “our leader, till’ the end of time, is our master, Muhammad!”

However what shocked those watching the video weren’t the shouts of the Syrian fighters but rather those of the children filming, who yelled back at the soldiers in a language unfamiliar to most Syrians following their country’s nine-year war. “That’s not Kurdish, right?” said one user in an online group where the video emerged. “If they were Kurds you think they’d be cheering them on?” responded another with a laugh out loud emoji.




After several hours rumors swirled that the video was shot in Azerbaijan, a small Turkic speaking nation nudged between Iran and Russia and that the Syrian rebel fighters had been sent there to prop up the Azeri government in its a war against it’s neighbor Armenia that had begun that day. According to high-ranking Syrian rebel sources that spoke to The Daily Beast, these rumors are true. The fighters that appeared in the circulated video were part of a group of 1,000 Syrian rebel soldiers sent in two batches from Turkey on 22 and 24 September 2020.

“500 Hamza Brigade fighters were flown last Tuesday from southern Turkey to the Azeri airbase at Sumqayit [30 kilometers north of the Azeri capital of Baku]”, according to a source within the Syrian National Army (SNA) rebel outfit who requested anonymity. “Two days later, on Thursday, another 500 fighters from the Sultan Murad brigades rebel faction were similarly flown out to Azerbaijan”.

These claims were echoed by the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Syrian opposition body that monitors human rights violations in the country whose sources suggested more batches of Syrian rebel fighters were preparing to be deployed to Azerbaijan.

The Hamza and Sultan Murad brigades are known within Syrian rebel circles as factions that enjoy especially close relations with Turkey, the last remaining patron of the Syrian opposition. Sayf Balud, commander of the Hamza brigades, however, is also known for his checkered past, in particular, as a former commander within the radical jihadist group ISIS.

An ethnic Syrian Turkman from the town of Biza’a in Aleppo city’s northern countryside, Balud originally joined the Abu Bakr Sadiq brigades, a moderate rebel faction near his hometown that received widespread support from Gulf states in the early years of the conflict. However hailing from a small, relatively unknown family, Balud failed to climb up the ranks of Syria’s rebel movement as quickly as he would have liked and as others from more prominent backgrounds regularly did. By early 2013, Balud joined ISIS, whose ranks were mostly staffed by foreigners and cared less about the social status of their Syrian recruits.

a man smiling for the camera: Second Division, Third Legion
© Provided by The Daily Beast Second Division, Third Legion
In July 2013, Balud appeared in an ISIS propaganda video shot in the border town of Tal Abyad after the group successfully captured the city from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). In the video, Sayf appears next to an Egyptian foreign fighter addressing a room full of two dozen captured YPG soldiers, who were assembled before an ISIS camera crew to officially repent for having joined an armed faction that ISIS’ leadership described as being “at war with God”.

Over the next several years, Balud’s star continued to rise, as the commander attained a level of status within ISIS that would have been unattainable within other rebel groups. Despite the large-scale defeat of ISIS across northern Syria at the hands of the YPG in 2016 and 2017, the cunning commander was able to leverage his history of fighting against Kurds to re-invent himself as a valuable client for another foreign patron: Turkey.

By January 2018, when Turkish backed rebel forces launched “Operation Olive Branch” to take over the Kurdish canton of Afrin located in Syria’s uppermost northwest corner, Balud regularly appeared in the group’s propaganda videos as the official commander of the newly formed Hamza brigades. His status as an ethnic Turkman, a small minority within Syria whose likeness to their Turkish kinsmen across the border has pushed Ankara to grant many coveted privileges such as Turkish citizenship and sensitive leadership positions, further endeared Balud to his new patrons.

According to SNA sources, Syrian rebel units now being sent to Azerbaijan by Turkey are almost exclusively led ethnic Syrian Turkmen. “Sayf Balud is a Turkman. The Sultan Murad brigade’s commander, Fahim Aissa, is a Syrian Turkman, like Balud. Turkey only trusts factions led by Syrian Turkman to carry out these missions. These are sensitive for Turkey politically and they don’t trust Syrian Arabs to lead them”.

Turkey’s intervention in Azerbaijan is indeed sensitive. After a four-year lull in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, fighting between both countries erupted on Sunday leading to the death of two-dozen fighters from both sides.

Though internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, in 1991 Armenian factions within the Nagorno-Karabakh region declared themselves independent. Three years of war over the disputed territory ended in 1994 with a Russian brokered ceasefire. The newly declared Nagorno-Karabakh republic was shortly after occupied by Armenia which has maintained de-facto control of the area since. With the exception of four days of fighting in April 2016, Sunday’s clashes were the first major instance of renewed combat between both countries over the status of the area. Both sides accuse the other of having initiated fighting on Sunday that sparked clashes that led to the death of dozens of soldiers.

As the Daily Beast went to press clashes continued between both sides with dozens more casualties reported. Fighting alongside the Azeri regular forces were 1,000 Syrian rebel fighters, among them former jihadists led by ex-ISIS commander Sayf Balud.
 

Es Arcanum

Princeps Terra
Founder
Okay...

So to help follow the bouncing ball...

Here is the region in question
84045_NagornoKarabakhlatest_1595241391696.jpg
* The Armenians have in effect taken some Azeri territory in the past, predominately territory with ethnic Armenians living inside it.

* The Azeris also have an enclave on the other side of Armenian territory, inhabited by ethnic Azeris, this enclave sits on the border (a tiny sliver) with Turkey but also Iran.

Here is the ethnic composition of the region for good measure, consider it and the political map above
3479-Armenia-Azerbaijan-and-a-Dangerous-Conflict-1.png


And for better measure here is a physical map of the region which together with the ethnic map helps make more sense of the political situation as well.

azerbaijan-relief-map-with-border-E4DX00.jpg
* The Azeris, who are nominally so far backed by Turkey have launched an attack on the Armenians.
* The Russians are not enemies of either but are more friendly to the Armenians.
* In the past Iran has also supported the Armenians.

*Erdogan of Turkey looks like he is flying Syrian rebel soldiers from Syria into Azeri territory (the main part) to assist the Azeris.

-------------------------

My take on it is that we should keep a close eye on what military forces Erdogan moves or allows to move into the Azeri enclave near the Turkish border. That enclave is a trap waiting to be closed and its supply route to Turkey cut off UNLESS Erdogan is anticipating a Turkish move into Armenia itself.

It would also be interesting to see what any Iranian involvement might look like.
 

Es Arcanum

Princeps Terra
Founder
Turkey's economy is in the shitter atm. The whole covid restriction caused recession worldwide is just distracting from it but Turkey is going to have some pretty serious economic problems in the future and thus so will Erdogan.


As for the Armenians, they have one problem for the Turks and one for Erdogan. They have historical claims to present day Turkish territory and they're not Muslim. The latter problem for Erdogan means he can find a cheap fix for both his problems by siccing his Syrian rebels on them at little cost to himself.
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
As for the Armenians, they have one problem for the Turks and one for Erdogan. They have historical claims to present day Turkish territory and they're not Muslim. The latter problem for Erdogan means he can find a cheap fix for both his problems by siccing his Syrian rebels on them at little cost to himself.
If more Turks get involved then the Armenians can be riled up to over past grievances regarding the Armenian genocide.
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
It was over 100 years ago. No one gives a fuck. Nor should they. 😄
Genocide denial aside, the Armenian government will go milk it for all it's worth.


Salty Sultan can retaliate and get 3 times madder in his tantrum.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Turkish F-16s have reportedly violated Armenian airspace and shot down an Armenian Su-25. Not sure if the actual engagement was over Artsakh though, if the claims in this article are correct it was over Armenia, and a blatant act of war by Turkey:

Armenian Jet shoot-down

If that’s true then we can expect to see the war expand with Iskander launches soon.
 

Tryglaw

Well-known member
Turkish F-16s have reportedly violated Armenian airspace and shot down an Armenian Su-25. Not sure if the actual engagement was over Artsakh though, if the claims in this article are correct it was over Armenia, and a blatant act of war by Turkey:

Armenian Jet shoot-down

If that’s true then we can expect to see the war expand with Iskander launches soon.

Turkey has been doing that kind of shit, namely violation of airspace - though without shooty part, for quite a while with Greece. They always get away with it...
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Oh boy, I was hoping Edry wouldn't be so stupid as to escalate to this.

Now, Armenia has ever justification to start lobbing Iskanders at Turkey.

Shit's going to boil over, and I think Turkey is going to try for Art 5 when they get hit with Iskanders.
 

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