Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

[Marduk]

Given they've only announced the creation of 15 brigades (~3,000 per each) to replace the units they'll rotate out, you're left with the question of what the other ~455,000 are for...

Wordgames wordgames wordgames, as it is always with you. All the sources specify that part of that number is to rotate out soldiers who are just due to sheer length of the war, not even wounded. What part? That's anyone's guess, and i consider yours worthless FYI.
Ukrainian armed forces in total, depending how you count and who you ask, consist of 500k to 1.3m warm bodies total, so 450k for rotations alone is perfectly reasonable, meant to replace only the part of personnel who are not in support roles but indeed in more exhausting circumstances.

 

[History Learner]

Wordgames wordgames wordgames, as it is always with you. All the sources specify that part of that number is to rotate out soldiers who are just due to sheer length of the war, not even wounded. What part? That's anyone's guess, and i consider yours worthless FYI.
Ukrainian armed forces in total, depending how you count and who you ask, consist of 500k to 1.3m warm bodies total, so 450k for rotations alone is perfectly reasonable, meant to replace only the part of personnel who are not in support roles but indeed in more exhausting circumstances.

Nope:

 

[Marduk]

Nope:

I don't trust some rando on twitter much in his explanations of it above my own knowledge, and any rando on twitter you shill to us, i trust less than any other rando.

 

[History Learner]

I don't trust some rando on twitter much in his explanations of it above my own knowledge, and any rando on twitter you shill to us, i trust less than any other rando.

Well good thing he linked to Maryana Bezuhla, deputy head of Verkhovna Rada Committee then, right?

 

[strunkenwhite]

Maryana Bezhula, who confirms that the military is asking for that many men and complains about a lack of transparency as to the breakdown of where the manpower is to be allocated, how much for rotation/demobilization, etc. In other words, your implication that her words are in support of your claim as to it being nearly all casualty replacement is proven unfounded by that very complaint.

 

[History Learner]

Maryana Bezhula, who confirms that the military is asking for that many men and complains about a lack of transparency as to the breakdown of where the manpower is to be allocated, how much for rotation/demobilization, etc. In other words, your implication that her words are in support of your claim as to it being nearly all casualty replacement is proven unfounded by that very complaint.

They haven't passed the bill yet to release people as you claim and only announced the creation of five brigades (~15,000) in the second half of 2023. So why exactly would they need to be replacing 125,000 people (excluding new brigades) since the Summer of 2023?

 

[Marduk]

Well good thing he linked to Maryana Bezuhla, deputy head of Verkhovna Rada Committee then, right?

And what did she say? She said the military leadership requested this number to be mobilized, not that it's all to replace casualties. Makes sense, who else is there to make the request. Another word game, you are repetitive.
For absolutely necessary context, Ukraine is also planning demobilization of conscripts with set number of months of service (3 years proposed here, also seen 18 months elsewhere), so it would be necessary to mobilize other people and train them first before that is done:

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry comments on terms of service and demobilization in new mobilization bill

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry is finalizing a new bill to address the urgent issue of service terms for soldiers who have been defending Ukraine since the first day of the full-scale Russian invasion.

english.nv.ua

From right now, with the 3 year scenario they would have about 13 months to gather, train, and then preferably get some combat experience to new mobilized, to replace the huge wave of mobilized that Ukraine took right after the war started, so it makes sense that they are discussing it now.
It even states out openly that a period of training new replacements will be needed first:

The new bill provides for a service period of 36 months, after which active military personnel can be discharged. This period will allow for the training and preparation of replacements. Delays in passing the bill will postpone the recruitment process.

 

[strunkenwhite]

They haven't passed the bill yet to release people as you claim and only announced the creation of five brigades (~15,000) in the second half of 2023. So why exactly would they need to be replacing 125,000 people (excluding new brigades) since the Summer of 2023?

Where did you get the 125k from?

 

[History Learner]

And what did she say? She said the military leadership requested this number to be mobilized, not that it's all to replace casualties. Makes sense, who else is there to make the request. Another word game, you are repetitive.
For absolutely necessary context, Ukraine is also planning demobilization of conscripts with set number of months of service (3 years proposed here, also seen 18 months elsewhere), so it would be necessary to mobilize other people and train them first before that is done:

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry comments on terms of service and demobilization in new mobilization bill

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry is finalizing a new bill to address the urgent issue of service terms for soldiers who have been defending Ukraine since the first day of the full-scale Russian invasion.

english.nv.ua

From right now, with the 3 year scenario they would have about 13 months to gather, train, and then preferably get some combat experience to new mobilized, to replace the huge wave of mobilized that Ukraine took right after the war started, so it makes sense that they are discussing it now.
It even states out openly that a period of training new replacements will be needed first:

Problem with your theory is both Zelensky and Zaluzhny have rejected it in on the record statements:

"As of now, I did not see demobilization in their plan. And that is a number one question, an issue of justice for those fighting at the war front for so long," Zelensky said last week.​

​

But Zaluzhny pushed back against questions about imminent demobilization, adding that he hoped that in 2025 — after three years of service for those who joined the fight at the start of Russia's 2002 invasion — he'd be able to "replace these people who are currently doing their jobs in extremely difficult conditions."​

​

Even providing rest for current troops, he acknowledged, was proving difficult. To comply with a law mandating that soldiers rotate out after six months, Zaluzhny said, he would need "at least two times more troops" — and even more if Russian launched a new onslaught.​

 

[History Learner]

Where did you get the 125k from?

20,000 per month for seven months (June, 2023 to January, 2024) is 140,000. Only five new brigades has been approve in that time, so 15,000 for that purpose and you're left with 125,000.

 

[History Learner]

Uh, doesn't that source you cite explicitly say Poland claims that the loan falling through won't stop it from completing the arms deal? You have the right to be skeptical about that, but it's not right to say Poland is canceling its military expansion plans based on that. If I missed something in there I'm happy to be corrected.

 

[Cherico]

If you would rather restrict the term antisemite to people who are actively planning to firebomb a synagogue and just about to do it, is there any lesser term you have in mind for your run-of-the-mill "jews control the world and hate us" guys?

I call them assholes.

 

[strunkenwhite]

So, it appears that if South Korea fails to extend its present cap on loans (for military export in general, which includes Poland), then the second half of Poland's military expansion will presumably be put on hold, unless Poland manages to find a different financier.

Note: Both the majority and opposition in SK support doubling the current cap to facilitate the second arms package with Poland.

 

[Marduk]

Problem with your theory is both Zelensky and Zaluzhny have rejected it in on the record statements:

"As of now, I did not see demobilization in their plan. And that is a number one question, an issue of justice for those fighting at the war front for so long," Zelensky said last week.


But Zaluzhny pushed back against questions about imminent demobilization, adding that he hoped that in 2025 — after three years of service for those who joined the fight at the start of Russia's 2002 invasion — he'd be able to "replace these people who are currently doing their jobs in extremely difficult conditions."


Even providing rest for current troops, he acknowledged, was proving difficult. To comply with a law mandating that soldiers rotate out after six months, Zaluzhny said, he would need "at least two times more troops" — and even more if Russian launched a new onslaught.​

And yet the MoD talks now about what was rejected earlier...
The article i linked was written a month after this one was published, naturally they denied it when the plan still didn't exist and they weren't sure if it was feasible at all. Or perhaps the political situation evolved and people discussed the matter, changed their minds. Sorry, no time travel to the most convenient moment to grind your shitty axe for you.

 

[Buba]

There are quite a few people in Poland questioning the sensibility of those purchases in Korea. Both as to the kit itself or its quantity. With a new Gov't in power I expect the orders to be cut back and/or canceled. The issue of lack of financing from the Korean side is an excellent pretext.

 

[Zachowon]

It is literally just due to the fact they were not prepared for such a loan.
Korea will most likely up ot because arms business is good business

 

[Buba]

It is literally just due to the fact they were not prepared for such a loan.

The State Bank which finances such deals has exhausted its funds. Parliament is refusing to vote an increase.

 

[Zachowon]

Korea is the one that is having the issue right now more so then Poland

 

[Buba]

Korea is the one that is having the issue right now more so then Poland

Poland is going through the usual circus of newly installed Gov't - shouting about prosecuting ex-Minisiter X for pocketing silver spoons on his way out takes priority over boring things like orders for weapons ...

 

[ATP]

Poland is ruled by german agent who hugged Putin in 2010,when he ruled first time.Before that,he destroyed polish army.
Of course,that they cancel korean weapons.
What do you expected ? german agent making Poland stronger?

Germany is Moscov ally.

Poland is going through the usual circus of newly installed Gov't - shouting about prosecuting ex-Minisiter X for pocketing silver spoons on his way out takes priority over boring things like orders for weapons ...

Worst.
Tusk is openly breaking law and destroy tv to hide fact,that he agreed to welcome german muslims,and destroy polish army again.
What you are see is kind of circus for idiots to hide his real crimes.

Well,Poland is doomed,but - the same goes for entire Europe and Moscov,so at least there would be no 123 years of partitions this time.